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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be reading to all wrong but the LAB vote share is t

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  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rcs1000 said:

    The great irony is that if David Cameron been more plausibly on the fence in his negotiations with Merkel and co, then he probably would have won greater concessions on benefits, and would therefore have won his referendum.
    Cameron might as well have hopped around Brussels on one leg with his arse painted green for all the difference his negotiations made. They were transparently spin. Everyone saw the whole exercise as the contrived theatre that it was. The odd unworldlywise anoraks who took it seriously wouldn't fill a backroom at a trainspotters` convention.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Yes, Palin's Tea Party actually has little in common with Trump's Deplorables. Will be interesting to see if a big fault line develops between these two anti-establishment GOP movements over the coming years.
    It will be interesting to see who Trump picks as SCOTUS, no matter who he picks they will never be conservative enough for the base.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Which expert? Seriously, I have never heard anyone with a passing knowledge of the EU claim that we can simply repeal the 1972 act and walk away. Of course I have heard lots of ill informed wannabe experts claim it but I assume you are talking about a real expert?
    Of course I meant 'expert' ironically but this is the one: Ingrid Detter de Frankopan.

    http://moneyweek.com/dont-trigger-article-50-just-leave/
  • Re school hours, I think the current guidance is still Management of the School Day, DfEE Circular 7/90.

    Age 5-7 21 hours
    Age 8-11 23.5 hours
    Age 12-16 24 hours
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Blimey, reading the comments about Cameron: never has so much history been rewritten so quickly and so absurdly by so many

    It will define how he is remembered quite reasonably, but I think it safe to safe people are wilfully ignoring anything else that happened in the 6 years, with no room for middle ground permissible at the present time.
  • Cameron might as well have hopped around Brussels on one leg with his arse painted green for all the difference his negotiations made. They were transparently spin. Everyone saw the whole exercise as the contrived theatre that it was. The odd unworldlywise anoraks who took it seriously wouldn't fill a backroom at a trainspotters` convention.
    Mirror, mirror on the wall
    Who is the saddest one of all?

    :)
  • @Richard_Nabavi That's a very fair point Richard and UKIP have certainly being going down the spluttering route. We'll have to see if Nuttal can hold it together. I still think the plan is for Nigel to come back for 2020. What I don't see is there cultural and demographic base going away. As politics is being reframed in their direction why should they ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited December 2016

    Of course I meant 'expert' ironically but this is the one: Ingrid Detter de Frankopan.

    http://moneyweek.com/dont-trigger-article-50-just-leave/
    The immediate problem I see with that article is she fails to understand that one of the mainstays of British diplomacy has always been that we strive to obey the rules and that we do not break treaty obligations. Of course one can walk away from treaties if one is so minded but the ramifications are utterly horrible in both the short and long term.

    I would also point out that her comment that "the Lisbon Treaty is not easily accessible as I have learned from scouting around for an official comprehensive copy that includes all modifications" is almost unbelievable coming from a professor of International Law. The whole point of the Lisbon Treaty is that it was designed to be read in conjunction with the earlier treaties. It does not supersede these treaties as such, simply modifies them so it is not meant to be read as a comprehensive treaty on its own. It can only be read alongside the other earlier treaties.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Question Time is Jeremy Kyle for Graduates. Stopping watching four years ago was one of the best things I ever did.

    Question time is basically....

    ......https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/806610982860681216/video/1
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    We've not noticed because of their implosion but the new UKIP leader Nutall has already changed policy. He's now saying we shouldn't go down the A50 route but unilaterally repeal the ECA and negotiate a single FTA vum Divorce deal instead from the outside.

    The fact this is nuts is irrelevant. Populists will never be satisfied. Brexit will have been too slow, to soft, will have happened in name only. If we get a bad deal things will still be the EU's fault because they wouldn't be reasonable. That's before we get to any transitional deal adding years to it.

    Nuttal shows the way forward. As soon as UKIP gets what it wants, Brexit, he moves the goal posts and says no A50. Brexit will take too long. I suspect the " all EU migrants can stay " will be next to go. Expect minor exemptions to start creeping in. Even minor criminal offences, the unemployed for over 6 months. Nothing will satisfy them.

    Trotskyites call them transitional demands. If Labour does collapse you'll get the same from the far left.
  • Off Topic: It's remarkable that Scottish Labour formally coming out for Repeal of the Act of Union is unremarkable.
  • Fraser Nelson on Niall Ferguson's BREXIT U-turn:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/defence-niall-ferguson/

    A story the BBC or Guardian have curiously yet to cover......
  • Trotskyites call them transitional demands. If Labour does collapse you'll get the same from the far left.
    "Trotskyism is a tool of the Capitalists" - according to the Marxist-Leninists!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
  • nunu said:

    Question time is basically....

    ......https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/806610982860681216/video/1
    After Brexit I want a Question Time where an audience of experts asks questions of a panel of five voters from down the local Wetherspoons.
  • Off Topic: It's remarkable that Scottish Labour formally coming out for Repeal of the Act of Union is unremarkable.

    Had to look it up - so little coverage has it got:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/07/scottish-labour-new-federal-state-unite-uk-after-brexit-kezia-dugdale-nicola-sturgeon
  • Fraser Nelson on Niall Ferguson's BREXIT U-turn:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/defence-niall-ferguson/

    A story the BBC or Guardian have curiously yet to cover......

    We should certainly take a Front Rank intellectual like Niall Ferguson seriously. But a complete u turn so quickly in the light of scant new evidence ? It snacks of publicity seeking. Though I'd buy and read a book on he writes in the topic.
  • We should certainly take a Front Rank intellectual like Niall Ferguson seriously. But a complete u turn so quickly in the light of scant new evidence ? It snacks of publicity seeking. Though I'd buy and read a book on he writes in the topic.
    As Nelson points out, the curious thing was Ferguson opposing BREXIT in the first place - which Ferguson ascribes to personal loyalty to Cameron and Osborne.

    But Ferguson did get the mood shift to Trump earlier than most pundits - and is chagrined he missed the one to Brexit.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited December 2016
    Someone please tell the Daily Mail that yes, of course Time magazine were having a New York joke by showing Trump, their 2016 person of the year, in a similar pose to how they showed their 1938 man of the year, Hitler, on their cover in 1941.

    But lest anyone forget, here's the Daily Mail's own famous article from 1934:

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    As Nelson points out, the curious thing was Ferguson opposing BREXIT in the first place - which Ferguson ascribes to personal loyalty to Cameron and Osborne.

    But Ferguson did get the mood shift to Trump earlier than most pundits - and is chagrined he missed the one to Brexit.
    Yes, this Ferguson article in August got the Trump momentum early on, ascribing it to the same forces as Brexit
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/08/02/fishtown-belmont/E7N09IN6y7bS0DVYBY87TO/story.html
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    We can unilaterally abrogate any treaty, if we don't mind the international consequences.
    Such as becoming the laughing-stock of the world and the dictionary definition of a "bunch of self-important silly sods"?

    It's reminiscent of Alf Garnett:

    "If my bowls club lets in any of those darkies, I'll resign."

    (A week later). "But now they've let some in, I'm damned if I'll let a few darkies dictate my reaction! I won't announce I'm resigning - I'll just keep quiet and climb out of the window!"
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Quiz
    Which European territory held an independence referendum in which the result was YES to independence, declared independence four days later, but had the declaration annulled two days later still by the state they were declaring independence from? This happened in the 20th century, and they are still not independent.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    We should certainly take a Front Rank intellectual like Niall Ferguson seriously. But a complete u turn so quickly in the light of scant new evidence ? It snacks of publicity seeking. Though I'd buy and read a book on he writes in the topic.
    Ramping up demand for a coming book is probably exactly the reason why he's gobbing off.
  • Dromedary said:

    Quiz
    Which European territory held an independence referendum in which the result was YES to independence, declared independence four days later, but had the declaration annulled two days later still by the state they were declaring independence from? This happened in the 20th century, and they are still not independent.

    Faroes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362

    Faroes?
    Apparently Christian X dissolved the parliament afterwards. Unfortunately he did not give the regional governors direct control ;)
  • RobD said:

    Apparently Christian X dissolved the parliament afterwards. Unfortunately he did not give the regional governors direct control ;)
    Fear will keep the local systems in line!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Faroes?
    Yes! Well done :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    edited December 2016
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/08/eu-unveils-new-300m-space-egg-hq-europa-brussels/

    The EU could learn a thing from the Democratic Order of Planet's choice of HQ in New Jersey :D
  • PlankPlank Posts: 71
    edited December 2016
    Looks like one of the issues in the by-election might be the local NHS

    http://www.sleafordstandard.co.uk/news/health/tory-by-election-candidate-claims-report-suggesting-options-to-close-grantham-a-e-does-not-correspond-with-what-she-has-been-told-1-7716186

    or as tiny url

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/h9xc4hc

    Might help shore up the labour vote. I believe Prescott has also been accusing UKIP of wanting to "privatise the NHS"

    I am still expecting a Tory hold of course.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Plank said:

    I am still expecting a Tory hold of course.

    25% swing needed by the Lib Dems...

    Looking at the past results and the trend prior to the Lib Dem collapse in 2015 this has the potential to deliver a shock. If Labour collapse it could be very close between the Conservatives, Lib Dems and UKIP. Ultimately it may be the awful UKIP candidate that saves the Tories' bacon.
  • Plank said:

    Looks like one of the issues in the by-election might be the local NHS

    http://www.sleafordstandard.co.uk/news/health/tory-by-election-candidate-claims-report-suggesting-options-to-close-grantham-a-e-does-not-correspond-with-what-she-has-been-told-1-7716186

    or as tiny url

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/h9xc4hc

    Might help shore up the labour vote. I believe Prescott has also been accusing UKIP of wanting to "privatise the NHS"

    I am still expecting a Tory hold of course.

    One of the few things pointing away from a 2017 GE is the fact these STP's are on the grid and being launched and leaked across England. With Corbyn it doesn't matter but in a normal year it would stop a government holding an election.
  • After Brexit I want a Question Time where an audience of experts asks questions of a panel of five voters from down the local Wetherspoons.
    you'd almost certainly get a more clued up set of answers
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Even predicting the running order of results makes my brain wobble....I think it may be

    Cons
    Lab
    UKIP
    LibDem

    I dont think there will be much between 2nd, 3rd, 4th, as the poster says it is the Labour vote that makes me wonder. Where will the Remain vote go - if LibDem then i could see them leapfrog to a credible second or v close 3rd. As for the UKIP vote - can anyone give us a feelf rom the ground
  • houndtang said:

    you'd almost certainly get a more clued up set of answers
    It would be fun seeing the experts try 'but you don't understand...' with the panel.....
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Maybe William Hill need to adjust their odds a little, if the price aint right..........80/1 needs to be perhaps 100/1
  • NEW THREAD
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