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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Political Divide, Part II – trying to make sense of WH
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Political Divide, Part II – trying to make sense of WH2016
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http://www.npr.org/2016/11/12/501848636/7-reasons-donald-trump-won-the-presidential-election
The lessons I draw:
1. Trump's better relative performance with young people and latinos boils down to larger numbers of those demographics going to third party candidates, rather than Trump appealing to them more than traditional GOP candidates.
2. The black vote has fallen back to more 'normal' levels of participation without a black presidential candidate
3. The non-college white vote is now lost to the Dems. They are no longer competitive nor the 'natural' representative (read protector in some lefty thought) of this group.
4. Charisma matters in close elections.
I can't write an alternate pre-race piece, but if it does rain a lot, consider Verstappen, Hulkenberg and Button. Maybe Red Bull to top score.
For comedy value, my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/brazil-pre-race-2016.html
Talking of betting, buy Tesla and SpaceX (if you can). Yes, Trump seems the anti-Elon. But consider...
Elon has consistently, for decades:
1) In sourced. Built factories in the US. Not merely screwdriver plants, but as he has developed his businesses, moved stuff from the supply chain on shore. The Gigafactory for batteries is the latest example. Taking jobs from South East Asia and bringing them to the US.
2) Energy independence - no Aaaaayraaaab Oil required to power a Tesla Model 3
3) American Exceptionalism - it's all about belief in America - not just jobs. The latest plan for SpaceX is to build the largest rocket in human history. And conquer Mars...
Interesting synergies there....
BTW MrT, didn’t you post a breakdown of the Governorships /Houses etc lost by the Dems since 2008? Would appreciate a repost if so.
Cheers Corporeal, looking forward to the last instalment.
I can't make investment advice, given my job!
Hold
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37967783
Looks like Facebook will be back to just cat videos then...if Twitter takes a similar censorship approach there won't be any traffic!
More seriously who is going to judge if it is fake & how fake does take have to be? There are loads of posts you see on Facebook and Twitter which aren't 100% true.
Benghazi too was messy and left a nasty aftertaste, and th Goldmann Sachs etc connection didn't sit well with the 'peoples candidate' image.
And where that back story hurt her was in Middle America, where people claim at any rate to value plain speaking and fair dealing. Just the people who feel left behind.
Yes there have been great advances in electrical storage capacity but until economies of scale can cut in then pure electric cars are going to be seen more on the moviescreen than through the windscreen.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-subsidy-aggregation-1466638430
Although in the case of SpaceX they get something back in return. In the case of SolarCity and Tesla, the 'returns' for the government's largesse are less obvious.
Musk was fairly vocally against Trump, and Trump didn't appear to favour green schemes. Combine these two and Tesla and SolarCity might find themselves with a few problems.
I'd expect Tesla to fair better than Solar City - they might just have scraped to the point where their cars are more affordable without the government rebate.
SpaceX might - or might not - have spectacular opportunities under Trump.
There are already some lobbyists whining that all this vertical integration gives him too much market power.
http://watchdog.org/230562/telsa-cap-and-trade/
There are many ways that Musk has been sucking at the taxpayers' teats. Most seem perfectly reasonable: e.g. enticements to open a factory in this state versus that state. Others appear more questionable.
I find it hard to get a handle on Musk. I really, really want to like him, and I admire him in many ways. But sometimes he's just a ... git. I wouldn't want to work for him (even if I was good enough, which I'm not).
Full marks to NF for being the first to meet Trump but in the grand scheme of things he is playing a very dangerous game and should stop rubbishing the PM. If David Cameron and Osborne were still in government, then some very serious grovelling would now be going on behind the scenes.
1) High theoretical tax rates make business difficult.
2) Business cuts a deal with the politicians - tax rate reduced to nothing.
3) Business donates to politician as payback.
4) Politician uses payback to advertise that he rejected a corporate tax cut in his battle for the everyman, and kept the theoretical rate high.
It's a beautiful system, really.
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/video/2016/nov/13/saturday-night-live-kate-mckinnon-sings-emotional-rendition-hallelujah-video?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Obama has received an artificial bounce from not being Clinton or Trump, but he can hardly be said to be popular if, at the same time, his electorate felt the country was going to hell in a hand cart.
As an aside, I wonder where Gigafactory 2's going to go in Europe? We're almost certainly out of the running now, sadly ...
(*) Sorry!
Labour leader criticises Putin but favours demilitarisation of European borders with Russia to prevent new cold war
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/13/jeremy-corbyn-hints-at-reducing-nato-presence-russia-putin
It *is* the problem.
The solution is simple. Forget campaign finance reform - too many issues with free speech. Ban the bribery. If a Congress Criter backs a lobbyists play, and receives money, or the backing of a laughably "independent" group as a result - send them both to jail.
Let them donate a trillion dollars to guy running for rat catcher. But if they try and get anything in return....
Oh, you mean Corbyn.
Historical precedent suggests two terms.
With all the press sneering at Americans voting for Trump they should perhaps take a closer look at what's going on at home, a lot of people think Corbyn should be running the show.
Just as the renunciation of NATO increases the chance that the US will need to intervene in Europe against an expansionary Russia.
Now, how about Trump? Well, he's a wheeler-dealer, not a politician. The two share some similar skillsets, but also different ones. If he just wants to be a president, he'll be fine. If he wants to actually *do* things, then he might find that the political system will prevent him in ways the commerce system did not.
I can imagine him getting bored and frustrated very quickly. Just like Obama would have, if Obama had not enjoyed politics so much.
Looking at the positives: he is a wheeler-dealer. He's a salesman: up to now, he's been selling himself and his brand. It's perfectly possible for him to *sell* good policies that would better America and the world.
Possible, but sadly unlikely IMO.
As an individual clearly he was helpful and Trump wanted to recognise that personally. But if he was seen as a serious contender then protocol would have kicked in: you are the government before the opposition; the President talks to the PM while Boris calls the VP etc etc
Incidentally on the misplaced 'leader of the opposition' caption, we make the same mistake with respect to Alexey Navalny in Russia.
Also expectations for him are practically zero so far as I can work out from every vox pop I've heard.
Meanwhile I think the DNC run Warren, and lose.
What's less likely, this getting to No. 1 or Corbyn getting to No. 10?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QaFxp9uUKg
I didn't understand it fully until now but this is the first year since I started Infants School aged 5 I've not worn a Poppy. I'd never wear a Poppy unless I'd donated to the RBL. Donating to the RBL is a symbolic upholding on the social contract I inherited as a Briton. But that social contract was torn , not torn up , but torn on 23rd of June. The symbolism seemed inadequate this year. So I donated to the German Red Cross' Syria relief work instead.
This didn't make me feel any better. It felt like a stage of grief. But then came Farage and the Golden Lift, Le Pen and venial Corbyn's appeasement. Why should I feel an ounce of regret ? All this ripping down of established social order by right wing populists is as much a form of liberal individualism as legal pot or turbo consumerism. Social conservatives currently cheering the mob on should be very careful what they wish for.
George HW Bush (41), Jimmy Carter (39), Gerald Ford (38), 31, 27, 23, 22.
The point about Trump is that he doesn't try to build consensus. One term will be enough for him to alienate everybody, including the electorate. He surrounds himself with 'Yes' men and family, it's not a good sign.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/nov/13/donald-trump-product-of-new-economic-depression?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
I have however got sick of the poppy police enforcing compliance. The football row for a start, but also the absurdity of the cookiemonster poppy row. Virture signalling at its very worst.
Jimmy Carter is the odd one out here, the exception that proves the rule if you like.
I'm not saying it is impossible for the Democrats, but they'll need an exceptionally strong candidate to do it with.
Not going to happen.
Charles said:
» show previous quotes
Careful fiscal stewardship that was needed to repay the debts from the last time Scotland went bankrupt?
You halfwit , they used Scotland's cash for the deal to pay England's debts at that time. Good amount of it will be in your family no doubt.
Pissing toberlone on the other hand!
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/
http://www.britishlegion.org.uk/get-involved/ways-to-give/make-a-donation
http://m.disclose.tv/news/are_you_suffering_from_trump_acceptance_resistance_disorder_tard/136500
By my teens I noticed his telling of the story had him going across North Africa the wrong way. That and other memory problems we never talked about as there was a Taboo. The first mention of Alzheimer's was his death certificate.
When I see Trump mocking a disabled person in front of a large rally or hear people comparing the EU to the Third Reich I want to throw up.
...Trump has so many skeletons in his closets that I can easily see him either trying to become a third term President or making former presidents exempt from prosecution.