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  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    The biggest one is the Democrats failed to realise how broad their coalition is. Sanders was a warning shot they failed to heed in the presidential campaign. Beating Sanders in the primary was never going to be enough to bring them on side.
    do u think in the short term it is actually the democrats that have the bigger demographics problem.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I would have thought, given the bombshell that the result turned out to be, that it was unwise to rush to too hasty conclusions about what went right for Donald Trump and what went wrong for Hillary Clinton. Time for some quiet reflection I'd have thought.

    In Hindsight those are plain to see.

    Both Trump and Hillary made plenty of mistakes, but Trump had the growing populist wave behind him while Hillary was doing an old school campaign in a new era.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    Speaking of big data, any word from votecastr..... titters
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Having thought about it for a while I find that I am not close to as worried or upset about Trump winning as I thought I would be.

    The US stock market would seen to agree with you!
  • MP_SE said:

    Looks like Clinton has been woken from her nap.

    Who's gonna tell her the news? Bill or Chelsea or Huma?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sen Jo Manchin of W. VA is saying he may caucus with Republicans.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Who's gonna tell her the news? Bill or Chelsea or Huma?
    Send her an email... it seems fitting!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    You seem to think "most extreme" and "furthest to the left" are synonyms. Technically perhaps, but to most normal people "most extreme" means that from a bunch of people all of whom are extremists you refer specifically to the one who is even more extreme than all the rest :-)

    I can't believe my first post for months is about grammar
    It isn't. It's about semantics! (And how's that for pedantry? :) )

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    It took weeks to finish counting all the votes in 2012 so this is not comparing like with like. I know because I was filling in a spreadsheet with the results last time. California took ages to complete its count.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,833
    Has Hillary showed her face yet?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:

    do u think in the short term it is actually the democrats that have the bigger demographics problem.
    Dems now have a very serious demographic problem. They need to work out what they are doing for 2018 fast.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    Tim_B said:

    Sen Jo Manchin of W. VA is saying he may caucus with Republicans.

    Was he just elected as a D?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896

    I think the answers to that require more time and space than I have here! But in my opinion whilst upsetting the establishment applecart does not equal a revival in fortunes for the working populations of 'The West', it ought at least to challenge some of it's more pernicious aspects. Overgrowth of corporate power, overgrowth of bureaucracy and state control in every area of life, endless and costly foreign military interventions, power of supranational bodies without democratic accountability, etc.
    By 2020 it is now certainly possible Trump will have taken the US out of NAFTA and the WTO and of course the UK will be out of the EU. The tide is turning against globalisation and nationalism is on the rise again, protectionism is also almost certain to see a revival under President Trump. Indeed Joseph Chamberlain's ideas are perhaps seeing a big revival, he is also the hero of May's chief adviser Nick Timothy
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    Sen Jo Manchin of W. VA is saying he may caucus with Republicans.

    He is up for re-election in 2018 right in deep Trump W.VA ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tim_B said:

    My wife, my daughter, and I all voted for Trump. Getting beyond the noise the choice we all felt was simple - it ain't working and Clinton represents more of the same. Something has to change and Trump was the only one who had a chance of making some changes. Will he be successful? Who knows, but the status quo was not an option. Given a choice between ongoing failure and the chance of success, however small, you take the chance.

    We are not racists, fascists, or illiterates. We don't call our opponents silly names either.
    Have to say, I've thoroughly enjoyed being an honorary Deplorable over the last few months.

    And today's ululating on Twitter is even more entertaining. I've heard hyperbolic cry bullying that puts even hardcore Remoaners in the shade.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Margaret Beckett on Sky: Trump is a vile and horrible man.

    Seriously ?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Was he just elected as a D?
    Yup but it looks like W VA is now a red state.
  • RobD said:

    That's does put they hyperbole into a bit of perspective, and I generally agree.
    The trouble is which Right? A great deal of what people were protesting about e.g. hollowing out of industry happened under laissez faire economics of Reagan and neo-liberalism. Bill Clinton followed along to certain extent. There's plenty in GOP who will not want to turn away from this way of working the world, especially the funders.
  • Clinton’s concession speech live - on youtube.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEOb3Apxhyw&feature=youtu.be
  • Dromedary said:

    It isn't. It's about semantics! (And how's that for pedantry? :) )

    Lol I just thought that reading my own post back...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Keane and Huma out, Hillary coming
  • After all the hype, it looks like turnout yesterday was the lowest since 2000.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,306

    Where is the parallel in what Erdogan is doing now with what Putin has done?
    Putin's gone much further when it comes to control, for instance of the media. Erdogan's just following.

    This is what amuses me of the pro-Putin, anti-Erdogan crowd. They're both doing the same things.

    It's about control.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,553
    edited November 2016
    Tram derailment in Croydon looks pretty bad - 5 dead. I've been that way quite a few times, but not for a few years.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37919658
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Will Clinton need help climbing the steps up to the podium?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    RobD said:

    Speaking of big data, any word from votecastr..... titters

    Some Democrats projecting fantasy states maybe :p
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Trump could end up with less than the 47.2% that Romney polled in 2012.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    Kaine introducing Clinton now; live on LBC
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,306

    After all the hype, it looks like turnout yesterday was the lowest since 2000.

    If true, that makes some of the comments below amusing ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673

    Having thought about it for a while I find that I am not close to as worried or upset about Trump winning as I thought I would be. He is a dealmaker, not an ideologue, so a lot of the stuff he said on the campaign trail will be forgotten and a lot of the rest of it will run up against Congress. Once he starts getting his secret service briefings, foreign policy might become a bit more nuanced. Most of all, though, the right now has control - here and in the US. There can be no ifs and no buts. There is nothing standing in the way. It's time to deliver. I am genuinely intrigued to see how it plays out.

    I've been saying for some time that Trump isn't an extremist, he's a chameleon. Amewrica doesn't know what they'll get. We don't know what we'll get. I'm not sure he knows either. It's a roll of the dice. Let's hope for the best...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sound problems...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    do u think in the short term it is actually the democrats that have the bigger demographics problem.
    Their problem is their diversity. It's hard to keep them all sweet, especially if the other side pick a candidate specifically targeting one of their blocs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,858
    edited November 2016
    The impression I have is that Trump's voters were overwhelmingly people who always vote Republican. In a divided politic it was a very small insurgency from the disaffected unionised working classes that got him over the line. Clinton did well with Hispanics who are all in Texas and California where they don't make any difference. Otherwise she was too dependent on people who always vote Democrat.

    Bush versus Gore all over again.
  • IanB2 said:

    Kaine introducing Clinton now; live on LBC

    He is just so deflated and boring
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,306
    Off-topic:

    How come all my attempts at play-doh animals look like the result of some weird genetic experiment that would have made Frankenstein think twice about continuing his experiments?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    AndyJS said:

    Sound problems...

    And a long slow waffle from Kaine...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speaking of big data, any word from votecastr..... titters

    A good lesson here:
    Never count faces, count votes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654
    PlatoSaid said:

    Have to say, I've thoroughly enjoyed being an honorary Deplorable over the last few months.

    And today's ululating on Twitter is even more entertaining. I've heard hyperbolic cry bullying that puts even hardcore Remoaners in the shade.
    They say that madness is being in a minority of one. A lot of us here thought that you had gone mad. Turns out you were the warden and the rest of us were the patients.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I've been saying for some time that Trump isn't an extremist, he's a chameleon. Amewrica doesn't know what they'll get. We don't know what we'll get. I'm not sure he knows either. It's a roll of the dice. Let's hope for the best...
    Trump a chameleon? Can you name a single Hillary policy she didn't u-turn on during the primary campaign?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    The cough is back.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Having thought about it for a while I find that I am not close to as worried or upset about Trump winning as I thought I would be. He is a dealmaker, not an ideologue, so a lot of the stuff he said on the campaign trail will be forgotten and a lot of the rest of it will run up against Congress. Once he starts getting his secret service briefings, foreign policy might become a bit more nuanced. Most of all, though, the right now has control - here and in the US. There can be no ifs and no buts. There is nothing standing in the way. It's time to deliver. I am genuinely intrigued to see how it plays out.

    And by the way I believe you said that Trump would be "powerful" in the sense that he'd have both sides of the Congress. Well, you were right about him getting elected, and you might well be right about the rest. God help us, but we'll see, fingers crossed. I hope he gets good advisers and listens to them.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016

    He is just so deflated and boring
    A bad choice for VP as I said in the summer, might have cost Hillary the election given the margins, just like Joe Lieberman cost Al Gore in 2000.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,462
    RobD said:

    Was he just elected as a D?
    No, in 2012. He's very much an old-style conservative Democrat, and West Virginia has moved Red at a rate of knots.


  • FF43 said:

    The impression I have is that Trump's voters were overwhelmingly people who always vote Republican. In a divided politic it was a very small insurgency from the disaffected skilled working classes that got him over the line. Clinton did well with Hispanics who are all in Texas and California where they don't make any difference. Otherwise she was too dependent on people who always vote Democrat.

    Bush versus Gore all over again.

    Yep - hence the lowish turnout. It was an amazing result in what was actually a pretty run of the mill election. The little people did not rise up and flock to the polls like never before. They stayed at home. Just as they usually do.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016

    After all the hype, it looks like turnout yesterday was the lowest since 2000.

    Not necessarily, because California takes ages to count all its votes usually.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    Sean_F said:

    No, in 2012. He's very much an old-style conservative Democrat, and West Virginia has moved Red at a rate of knots.


    Ah, okay! That would have been something else otherwise
  • The cough is back.

    Must be the hardest thing she has done and she is so obviously shattered
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    New thread!!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The cough is back.

    Does it matter anymore ?
  • Mr. Jessop, I agree entirely on Leveson. It's a menace to free speech.
  • If true, that makes some of the comments below amusing ...

    2016 - 55.8%
    2012 - 58.6%
    2008 - 62.2%
    2004 - 60.7%
    2000 - 55.3%

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Margaret Beckett on Sky: Trump is a vile and horrible man.

    Sky's just as bad as BBC now - Gillian just let Beckett go on and on without interruption. I muted it again. I honestly prefer to get my news from anywhere but UK TV now. It's lost the plot re politics/immigration/SJWs.
  • They say that madness is being in a minority of one. A lot of us here thought that you had gone mad. Turns out you were the warden and the rest of us were the patients.
    Magnanimous.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,462
    Alistair said:

    Dems now have a very serious demographic problem. They need to work out what they are doing for 2018 fast.
    There's been a lot of talk about States trending away from the Republicans, like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and perennially Texas (although that one never seems to materialise).

    But, there are also quite a few States that have trended towards the Republicans over the past twenty years, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, and now Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Alistair said:

    I was saying that an hour ago! Although they aren't missing, Johnson and Stein have most of them.
    You may well be right. In 2012, Johnson and Stein got 1.0% and 0.4%; in 2016, around 5% and 2%.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Sky's just as bad as BBC now - Gillian just let Beckett go on and on without interruption. I muted it again. I honestly prefer to get my news from anywhere but UK TV now. It's lost the plot re politics/immigration/SJWs.
    Yes Sky has become as bad as the BBC. Is it the Faisal influence or a sign of the leanings of those that hired him? With the ITV News heavy shift to the left with Peston and Allegra, we now have the three main broadcasters spouting the same left leaning line.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,858

    Yep - hence the lowish turnout. It was an amazing result in what was actually a pretty run of the mill election. The little people did not rise up and flock to the polls like never before. They stayed at home. Just as they usually do.

    Just one thing I got right about the result. Low turnout benefits the Republicans.
  • Trump can still be backed on at 1.04 for 300-329 votes.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Sky's just as bad as BBC now - Gillian just let Beckett go on and on without interruption. I muted it again. I honestly prefer to get my news from anywhere but UK TV now. It's lost the plot re politics/immigration/SJWs.
    A lot of the best people on sky have left.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MP_SE said:

    Looks like Clinton has been woken from her nap.

    She looks crushed. And she has been. All that scheming for nought and now looking down the barrel of the FBI's agents.

    IIRC - Obama can pardon her even if she hasn't been indicted - Ford did that for Nixon I gather.

    It doesn't stop the NYPD using state laws against her though.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016

    Yep - hence the lowish turnout. It was an amazing result in what was actually a pretty run of the mill election. The little people did not rise up and flock to the polls like never before. They stayed at home. Just as they usually do.

    Looks like a re-aligning election.

    Minorities moved a bit Republican, college educated moved a bit democrat, working class moved way towards republicans.

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796232076941000704

    North+South, like Carter in 1976.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    A bad choice for VP as I said in the summer, might have cost Hillary the election given the margins, just like Joe Lieberman cost Al Gore in 2000.
    Hillary lost the election because -

    she is simply a terrible candidate and not a natural politician at all. (pretty much everyone thought Trump was an equally bad candidate until last night, but he connected with the public in a way she didn't)

    She represented continuity of failed and unpopular policies when the country wanted change.

    Everyone knew what Trump stood for - wall, immigration, economy, repeal Obamacare etc, whereas Clinton had no clear message at all, as her campaign was based simply on proving Trump unreliable and temperamentally unsuited. She asked her campaign to come up with reasons why she wanted to be president and they couldn't. She famously got annoyed with them at this.
  • Also Clinton @1.03 on 210-239 (she gets 232, Trump 206)
  • sorry 306
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dromedary said:

    You may well be right. In 2012, Johnson and Stein got 1.0% and 0.4%; in 2016, around 5% and 2%.
    Stein is getting 0.97%

    Or I scream
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    FF43 said:

    The impression I have is that Trump's voters were overwhelmingly people who always vote Republican. In a divided politic it was a very small insurgency from the disaffected unionised working classes that got him over the line. Clinton did well with Hispanics who are all in Texas and California where they don't make any difference. Otherwise she was too dependent on people who always vote Democrat.

    Bush versus Gore all over again.
    Figures I saw elsewhere were c5/6% of GOPers and Dems swapping sides nationally - with exceptions like Kentucky where 24% Dems voted Trump. Reagan Democrats for 2016.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tim_B said:

    Hillary lost the election because -

    she is simply a terrible candidate and not a natural politician at all. (pretty much everyone thought Trump was an equally bad candidate until last night, but he connected with the public in a way she didn't)

    She represented continuity of failed and unpopular policies when the country wanted change.

    Everyone knew what Trump stood for - wall, immigration, economy, repeal Obamacare etc, whereas Clinton had no clear message at all, as her campaign was based simply on proving Trump unreliable and temperamentally unsuited. She asked her campaign to come up with reasons why she wanted to be president and they couldn't. She famously got annoyed with them at this.
    But she's got more votes than Trump. More people wanted to vote for her than vote for Trump.

    There is some bad narrative writing going on about this election already. He connected with different people more crucial to winning the election due to the state they were in but he didn't connect to more people.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Dromedary said:

    You may well be right. In 2012, Johnson and Stein got 1.0% and 0.4%; in 2016, around 5% and 2%.
    Johnson and Stiein at 4.8% combined according to BBC, so it look like they get squeezed a lot on the day, especially in the swing states.

    personably I'm disappointed the Libertarians did not brake to 5% threshold.
  • FF43 said:

    The impression I have is that Trump's voters were overwhelmingly people who always vote Republican. In a divided politic it was a very small insurgency from the disaffected unionised working classes that got him over the line. Clinton did well with Hispanics who are all in Texas and California where they don't make any difference. Otherwise she was too dependent on people who always vote Democrat.

    Bush versus Gore all over again.
    There are at least 3m votes for Clinton not counted yet and 1.5m for Trump
    These numbers are not the final ones he refers to
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Alistair said:

    But she's got more votes than Trump. More people wanted to vote for her than vote for Trump.

    There is some bad narrative writing going on about this election already. He connected with different people more crucial to winning the election due to the state they were in but he didn't connect to more people.
    Most vote either Dem or GOP regardless. Connecting with people better is merely another arrow in the quiver. But having been to both a Clinton and a Trump event, the Clinton event was flat whereas the Trump event had an exciting vibe to it. It wasn't a difference maker but it helped.
  • Astonishingly biased vox pops on BBC 5 O'Clock News. About 10 quiet reflective disappointed Democrats, 2 nasty vindictive Republicans.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    There's been a lot of talk about States trending away from the Republicans, like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and perennially Texas (although that one never seems to materialise).

    But, there are also quite a few States that have trended towards the Republicans over the past twenty years, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, and now Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
    And finally Pennsylvania after trying to win it two elections in a row third time lucky. They have to drop the sjw stuff, men with lipstick in women bathrooms? Er, no.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    nunu said:

    And finally Pennsylvania after trying to win it two elections in a row third time lucky. They have to drop the sjw stuff, men with lipstick in women bathrooms? Er, no.

    It seems that on some issues you're more reactionary than Trump. ;)

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/caitlyn-jenner-bathroom-trump-tower-donald-trump/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    Latvian guest on Newsnight compares a potential Trump-Putin entente with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact...
  • RobD said:

    If he is the most left-wing, that does put him on the extreme. It's just a poor choice of adjective given the context.
    Most left wing and extreme are not the same thing though. Glad another PBer has also made a similar point.
This discussion has been closed.