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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2

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  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited November 2016
    1st

    When Trump wins, it'll be a tense few years...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    Quite a turn up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb92Zwfujb4

    Just did some digging, that isn't the whole video and it's actually a bit different to how it has been edited. Matthews is actually criticizing Trump for not running the campaign like he started. I'd agree, it is almost like Trump deliberately threw the campaign. If he went half as strong on this as Matthews just did he'd win.

    https://twitter.com/hardball/status/791795272254750720?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    edited November 2016
    Fourth

    No.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    I have a bet on the winner of the electoral college losing the presidency, though this time I think it could be the Democrat who ends up in the White House on a minority vote
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    edited November 2016
    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Interesting...

    @JohnRentoul: A friend writes: "Orgreave and Leveson tossed overboard. What was it that Crosby said should happen in the run up to an election?"
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    jonny83 said:

    Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

    Who investigated the pardoning and what was the conclusion of that investigation?

    I'm not sure the realease was authorised by Comey...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Scott_P said:

    Interesting...

    @JohnRentoul: A friend writes: "Orgreave and Leveson tossed overboard. What was it that Crosby said should happen in the run up to an election?"

    Mentioned this the other day. Also the dumping of the education bill. It's...interesting.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    jonny83 said:

    Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?


    A warning to the Clintons that they know where the bodies are buried?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Not if everyone puts their Paddy Power Clinton winnings on him!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,409
    I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    jonny83 said:

    Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

    A shot across Obama's bows. Don't pardon this woman....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Stark_Dawning said:

    I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?

    But Halloween is only once a year. Who wants to glow in the dark the rest of the time?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    brokenwheel said:

    jonny83 said:

    Erm explain to me why the FBI have released a load of files to do with Bill Clinton pardoning someone back in 2001 and what relevance it has?

    Who investigated the pardoning and what was the conclusion of that investigation?

    I'm not sure the realease was authorised by Comey...
    Looks like the investigation was closed in 2005. A FOI request has got it released by the looks of it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Big swing in NC in the SurveyUSA poll. And Az. This is getting tight. Another 2% and it is game on. Gulp.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    The parallels are quite interesting.

    The momentum is with trump right now - much like the momentum was with remain in the last week.

    Will it be enough?

    It wasn't for remain.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,350
    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
    Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
    Can you imagine the ego of the man - didn't want to win, tried everything NOT to win, but his country called for him in their hour of need....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
    Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!
    I'm not sure Trump winning would do as much damage to the Republicans as it would damage the Democrats if Hillary lost. I mean - if you can't beat Trump, what the hell do you do next?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    MarqueeMark said:

    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
    Can you imagine the ego of the man - didn't want to win, tried everything NOT to win, but his country called for him in their hour of need....
    It would be one hell of a reality show!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.
    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    Early voting might be the thing that saves Clinton tbh.

    Also, if Clinton gets Nevada+NH, and loses the other swing states ..... 269-269 :-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Betfair...

    It's beginning to look a lot like Brexit.

    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!

    Like Boris, perhaps Trump has a different motive and doesn't actually want to win.

    If so, what does he do next?
    Trump winning would destroy the Republicans, quite possibly the rest of us!
    I'm not sure Trump winning would do as much damage to the Republicans as it would damage the Democrats if Hillary lost. I mean - if you can't beat Trump, what the hell do you do next?
    The Democrats can nominate any number of sensible folk in a few years time. The Republicans will however have to deliver Trumps policies, or fight them from Congess.

    Whover wins next Tuesday loses the midterms, badly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    The narrative has turned against Clinton but (a) at least 25% of voting had already been done, so it's too late for some people to change their mind, and (b) emails shmemails - it's hard to believe that very many Clinton voters will switch to Trump over yet another story about emails. It will be harder for her to GOTV though.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
    Urban warfare is rarely quick.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,613
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    We're surely always being told there isn't a head.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
    Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
    I tried explaining to William Hill once that Trump was literally the only horse left in the race, but oh no, they said he hadn't won(!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.
    Though equally Shy Clintonites now...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
    I tried explaining to William Hill once that Trump was literally the only horse left in the race, but oh no, they said he hadn't won(!)
    I suppose he could have quit or in fact croaked for that matter - of course much depends on what the rules state in each particular market, although as we have seen in the past, sometimes these are very poorly written.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    edited November 2016
    Four people were injured when a car mounted a pavement and ploughed into a group of pedestrians.

    A woman was seriously injured in the hit and run in Humberstone Gate, Leicester, shortly before 17:00 GMT, police said. Eyewitnesses told the BBC they saw a car with a smashed windscreen being driven "erratically" after the crash.

    Others said the car appeared to have been deliberately driven at the group of pedestrians.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-37841829
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
    PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Quick, William Hill...!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/north-carolina
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    Which given that 'going badly' is highly subjective might support the idea that there's been a shy Trump factor all along.
    Though equally Shy Clintonites now...
    I'm sure when the results are in there will be plenty of "we always knew we were losing/winning" stories from both campaigns.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928

    So Trump supporters would have been not participating in polls then for what, the past month?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
    Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not, but my bank balance is at least. :/
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Jobabob said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
    PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.
    I'm afraid that PP historically have a poor record for paying out on their "special" bets - it seems they get stuffed in a drawer and conveniently forgotten about. There have been two or three occasions when I have had to chase PP for payment weeks after the event. If they can't handle these types of bets they shouldn't offer them in the first place.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Something like this?

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/ZgK6V

    Cohn throws a spanner in the works by handing NC to Hillary. But, like you, I am sceptical of that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not, but my bank balance is at least. :/
    I'm using my Trump winnings to build a nuclear fallout shelter
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/793579160845385728

    But, you know, sovereignty and that...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
    Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.
    He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting from YouGovUSA

    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076
    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928

    So Trump supporters would have been not participating in polls then for what, the past month?
    Is that pollster-speak for being wise after the event ...... i can't remember YouGov having raised these aspects previously.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,102
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    I think it refers to an alleged reward in Paradise.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    On NC, AA is down due to the reduction in early voting places. More are opening up soon, so may be more votes coming in

    The polls with NC leads for clinton has her leading in those who voted early

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    A Duterte vs Trump slanging match would be something to behold.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    He means their promised virgins.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    peter_from_putney said:

    Jobabob said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Paddy Power Politics: - And we've already paid out on Hillary.

    Oops..

    Doesn't their stunt work *better* if Trump now wins?
    Paddy Power stunting?

    Surely not.
    The ultimate irony, as I mentioned previously, is that Betfair - PP's sister company, for understandable reasons, only pays out when every last "i" has been dotted and "t" crossed. I can't imagine the shareholders are too thrilled about it for all that.
    PP are like that too, in some cases. I had to wait until the 2015 election itself for them to pay out on the "will be contested on 650 seats" bet despite the fact the boundary changes had been spiked by the LDs in parliament months (years?) before.
    I'm afraid that PP historically have a poor record for paying out on their "special" bets - it seems they get stuffed in a drawer and conveniently forgotten about. There have been two or three occasions when I have had to chase PP for payment weeks after the event. If they can't handle these types of bets they shouldn't offer them in the first place.
    Yes, I had to ring them up three times and explain the bet back to them, then explain why they now needed to pay out. They thought about it, refused, and waited until after the election itself before they eventually coughed up.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Is that pollster-speak for being wise after the event ...... i can't remember YouGov having raised these aspects previously.

    They have made that point before - for example, in the 2012 US election when Romney did better than expected in the first debate, there was exactly that effect of Romney supporters become more eager to respond to the poll and Obama supporters less eager, causing a temporary (and ultimately misleading) narrowing of the Obama lead. It's probably an effect which shows up more in online polls than telephone polls.

    Edit: Of course, since voting has already started, it might also be an effect which shows up in the propensity to actually vote.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    619 said:

    On NC, AA is down due to the reduction in early voting places. More are opening up soon, so may be more votes coming in

    The polls with NC leads for clinton has her leading in those who voted early

    But she has lost so much ground already - you would have to see the AA percentages massively outperform 2012 levels for her to recover just what has been lost.

    My tip for state bets has been to go for those states where the Democrats need 2008/2012 AA style turnouts to overcome Republican leads. Given AA turnout so far, very happy to stick with that view.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,102
    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    The weakness of Cohn's analysis is that it depends on a voting intention poll which even before the FBI intervention was on the favourable side for Clinton. On the other hand, it should be accounting properly for turnout differences between demographic groups.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    For those of us who like our number crunching and mathematical models...

    https://twitter.com/MATLAB/status/793448819023224833
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
    Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
    Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.
    If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. You saw at the Bataclan theatre and on the Nice promenade that they relish murdering the innocent, to show how vicious they are. Mongol forces waged psychological war that was similar. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    Dromedary said:

    DavidL said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
    Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.
    If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.
    Link?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
    Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.
    Sky Bet are 6-4, Hills are theoretically 13-8 but their site is down.

    Ladbrokes are 5-6 the pair - which is where I'd imagine all the others will be in half an hour or so.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    RCP says that overall Clinton still has a slight edge but the momentum is with Trump.
    OGH is right in that today at WH, the betting was on a Trump victory, with my £100 bet on trump at 5/2 confirmed by Rosie. :D
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
    Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.
    He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.
    How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dromedary said:

    DavidL said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....
    Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.
    If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. You saw at the Bataclan theatre and on the Nice promenade that they relish murdering the innocent, to show how vicious they are. Mongol forces waged psychological war that was similar. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.
    I think it will be neither. A grinding down and bloody house to house battle,and not quick.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Trump in Wisconsin tonight. Trying to expand the map.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxw0HrFf00
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
    Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.
    Sky Bet are 6-4, Hills are theoretically 13-8 but their site is down.

    Ladbrokes are 5-6 the pair - which is where I'd imagine all the others will be in half an hour or so.
    Got 6/5 with PP but bet limited to £114. Boo!!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
    Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.
    If that's your view then should perhaps consider Laddies' Clinton's Firewall Finder and a possible 25/1 shot which I referred to on the previous thread.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.
    I got the reference. I found it quite amusing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Jobabob said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!
    LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
    Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.
    He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.
    How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

    Richard is almost sui generis - a libertarian, internationalist, anti-racist, Democrat-supporting pro free market, pro Scottish nationalist, anti capital punishment, intellectual, evangelical atheist Brexiteer!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Well I am glad someone got the reference. Hey ho.
    Apologies David!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    peter_from_putney said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Very encouraging data for Clinton re early voting in Nevada.

    And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

    Agreed on that, Mike - I am long Trump but looking at the data, I do not see how he does NV, it is looking near impossible.

    On the other hand, NC looks like a no-brainer for Trump - AA voting down 20%+ from 2012 (when Romney won), White voting up, Republican early voting up and Democrats down and Millennials only 16% of the vote. I just cannot see how anyone thinks HRC will win the state.
    Check out Nate Cohn's analysis of this - I'm not persuaded by his view at all!
    Neither am I. The most accurate predictor of voting in NC seems to be race - if AA turnout is down this sharply, then HRC cannot win the state, simple as.

    Mind you, great from an odds perspective that he says this because it lengthens the odds; I am going to put more on Trump in NC!
    Good spot. Trump looks value there at 11/8.
    If that's your view then should perhaps consider Laddies' Clinton's Firewall Finder and a possible 25/1 shot which I referred to on the previous thread.
    I put a bit on that. Well spotted!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

    Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

    As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    DavidL said:

    Jobabob said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    They are outnumbered 10-1, facing overwhelming firepower including US planes and attack helicopters with no real hope of any relief. A real test of your desire for those inexperienced sex partners.

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!
    LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.
    DavidL said:

    Jobabob said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nevada looks like it is going Clinton and North Carolina, Trump to me.

    Agree.
    DavidL said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

    The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.
    The test will be if Isis rout, not if they can pretend to be a proper army for a while.
    snip

    On the other hand until now the Iraqi army has been better at money laundering than fighting so I expected things to be slower. A collapse would indeed be the end of ISIS as an even vaguely conventional army.
    Inexperienced sex partners? Was this sentence supposed to be in this post David?
    A reference to 72 virgins methinks!
    Oh I see! I assumed David moonlighted as a relationships counsellor and had miscued a copy and paste!
    LOL. Sounds more fun than being a lawyer.
    There is always the option of evening shifts...
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    williamglenn said:

    The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

    Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

    As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

    An extraordinary statement from someone you'd imagine would be a strong supporter.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

    Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

    As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

    Barak Obama in Florida and NC for the rest of the week.

    Bernie is doing the Midwest.

    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    williamglenn said:

    The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

    Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

    As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

    For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    peter_from_putney said:

    williamglenn said:

    The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

    Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

    As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

    An extraordinary statement from someone you'd imagine would be a strong supporter.
    A statement that applies only to the situation in FL. The OP failed to mention that.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    williamglenn said:

    Trump in Wisconsin tonight. Trying to expand the map.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxw0HrFf00

    We might, just might, be heading for President Trump.

    My oh my what a political year.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Jobabob said:

    tyson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

    I'm not.
    Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.
    He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.
    How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

    Richard is almost sui generis - a libertarian, internationalist, anti-racist, Democrat-supporting pro free market, pro Scottish nationalist, anti capital punishment, intellectual, evangelical atheist Brexiteer!

    Jobabob...apart from Brexit...that is me, and I guess that is you too, and people like Fox (maybe not quite atheist)....so how come we can come so far apart on Brexit. I don't get it.

    I feel a natural affinity to libertarians more so than any other political philosophy. I really do not like Corbyn's hamfisted, socialism
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

    Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.
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