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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is analysis might well disprove the theory of shy Trumper

Also Trump didn't over-perform his polls in the primary. If anything the opposite happened. pic.twitter.com/UFVO6BvRLe
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https://twitter.com/BilouFCB/status/790242009483243520
Clinton seems to be outperforming in Rep states.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/voter-interest-in-election-falls-1476702003
The primaries were about blowing a raspberry at the establishment - but in the polling booth many would have had doubts. Socially it was a "safe" thing to do to support Trump: and arguably harder to justify supporting Bush for example.
With the media coverage of Trump's issues over the last weeks and months I can see much more social shame about being a backer. What would be interesting is analysis of the last few weeks - where has the Trump support been going: to Hillary, to undecided or to non-voting? The answer would be very instructive. I suspect it will be going to undecided - and, if so, it (or a proportion) may come back on the day.
Worth considering in state betting too.
I dont think the bookies are yet convinced its all over.
I certainly want more than 5-1 though before I take a punt.
We dont actually know who they are voting for. They are not obliged to vote for the party they register with and many Sanders supporters in particular may not vote for Clinton.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct21
Vs
Hilary Benn, Ms Thornberry’s predecessor in the Shadow Cabinet post and now the chairman of the Brexit Committee, stressed the importance of a transitional deal when he spoke to the Andrew Marr Show ea
But I agree this is a really disappointing POTUS. Both of the candidates are crap, incoherent and will almost certainly be poor Presidents. Hilary, probably slightly less so but we will have 4 years of Special Prosecutors, Congressional Inquiries, lying and equivocation. Not really what the country needs and not particularly helpful to us.
It's quite easy to imagine a populist of the right - a republican Bernie Sanders.
It's worth considering from the other side of things that Bernie Sanders with a few things different would have beaten Hillary... he was too old and too Corbyn like. But even so he scared the hell out of Clinton. Hence the Black Lives Matter bizarro attack on Sanders...
It would help if we could have more light rather than heat from certain quarters.
(USA citizens have always been relatively insular)
'NASTY WOMAN!'
AlistairAlistair Posts: 5,568
7:39PM
Moses_ said:
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Wait one. That's not a win then.
If it was 52.9% that would be considered a very narrow win and not representative because half have voted elsewhere. Well that's the strange logic of Remainers on PB .
(Yes I know it's not a half but doesn't stop that "half quote" being used over and over by Remainers)
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Trump won't be getting 47% of vote.
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Totally irrelevant.
Everyone else will of course so we have a glorious situation where in the UK 52.9% is regarded a narrow win and not the will of the people but in USA 53% ( according to your call) is a resounding win and certainly the will of the people.
FFS and you wonder why Remainers are not taken seriously.
https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/788315565022732288
Lucky Fellow!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct21
Trump's blue collar base however will be at the polls to vote for him come hell or high water
https://youtu.be/Ptg19PmIbIk
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/
Also, liberals, the young, hispanics and AA's will def vote to keep Trump out of the white house
This goes against everything I've read. Does anyone have any source to this fantastical claim?
Trump vs Bernie would be interesting to imagine - I keep thinking that Trump would fail to lay a glove on Bernie.
So far.
2) there are more Dems
3) in North Carolina in the early vote white urban turnout is UP 2% for dems but white urban turnout is down 4% for Republicans which is particularly bad for them since the local party is 94% white. This suggests so far at least suburban Repubs are not voting for DT.
4) Bernie voters are mainly young and he is often fourth place with them.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Due to their extreme generosity with the underlying data it is eay to apply your own weightings. Once you apply "standard" weightings to it it basiclly follows the RCP polling average almost perfectly.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/the-virtues-of-the-l-a-times-poll/
A real votewinner.
And in the eyes of many a rather more serious matter than groping.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is analysis might well disprove the theory of shy Trumper
You might want to rewrite the header, unless you actually want people to think you're a French spy who doesn't quite have fluency
The young are 16% less interested in the 2016 election than 2012 and almost 30% less interested than 2008, African Americans are 18% less interested than 2012 and 28% less interested than 2008
http://www.wsj.com/articles/voter-interest-in-election-falls-1476702003
I would have thought Suzanne Evans would be similar odds to him? She was a day or two ago when I last checked.
Is it because people think Evans and Kassam will split a similar vote allowing Nuttall to win under FPTP?
Anyone voting for her on those grounds is likely in for disappointment.
If it's Clinton +2.0% (Pennsylvania), he puts it in the to close to call column.