politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the gr

Many thanks Mr Wheatley

That 1/8 on the Tory share of the vote being lower than in 2015 is free money.

There's usually a personal vote increase for party leaders, which should theoretically unwind this time.

FPT: F1: just gossip but reinforces the rumour that has Hulkenberg going to Renault on a two year contract:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37605311

The question would seem to be whether that's to drive with Magnussen or if another chap will also join the team.

FPT I remember the post-analysis from POTUS 2012 when the consensus was that the republicans were doomed so long as they remained captured by their extreme Christians. That bit of their problem at least seems to have receded a little.

IanB2 said:

FPT I remember the post-analysis from POTUS 2012 when the consensus was that the republicans were doomed so long as they remained captured by their extreme Christians. That bit of their problem at least seems to have receded a little.

That was the time that they were so captured by extreme Christians that they nominated a Mormon?

FPT for Mortimer

For my part, rule by technocracy tends towards the anti-humane because based on two flaws:

1. That the needs of the many outweigh the needs of few (ie a reductive utilitarianism)

2. That the needs of the many are even knowable.

Ultimately we cannot be reduced to numbers or equations.

Ideology is vital as a reflection of morality, whether held individually or communally. Whether one prefers equality over liberty simply has to be ideological, and necessarily has to inform a great deal of political decisionmaking.

SouthamObserver said:

Excellent stuff - many thanks. If the LDs don't take second place here questions about Farron's leadership will start being asked, surely.

Start???


Edit to add: I see him as a campaigner not a leader.

On topic, a really useful report and pretty convincing evidence and info that this shouldn't be anything but a convincing Con hold.

One factor, on top of the local ones listed, as to why the Lib Dem playbook isn't apparently gaining much traction is that their attempts to play the tactical game only work if there's a good motivation to engage in it. Starting from well behind, with Corbynite Labour enthused and - most importantly - with the May still in something of a honeymoon period, that doesn't really apply. Sure, the Tories aren't overwhelmingly popular - the big poll leads are probably more a relative thing than an absolute one - but only to a degree. If the Cons were genuinely unpopular then even if Labour was seen as worse, there'd be much more leakage to the LDs and UKIP taking place independently of campaigning than there has been.

That said, the LD share should indeed be well up and it'll be interesting to see whether Farron can piggy-back of a decent result to get more coverage (and if he can, whether he can make much of it). I remain far from convinced by his strategic thinking in terms of positioning the Lib Dems to maximise the opportunities presented by Labour's troubles.

Mr. Moses, me? Post scuttlebutt? You'll be accusing me of posting flimflam next.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Moses, me? Post scuttlebutt? You'll be accusing me of posting flimflam next.

Indeed ..... Chortles*


* checked and appears not to be on the PB ban list.

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Excellent stuff - many thanks. If the LDs don't take second place here questions about Farron's leadership will start being asked, surely.

Yes. The LDs are treating this as a marginal seat for them and throwing in resources to do well. Labour seem to be barely bothered. With the Jo Cox seat voting on same day, maybe Labour see it as not worth the effort? But there is a chance (slim) that the media may point out how the main opposition party is slipping down in an election, worse if Labour lose their deposit.

Labour won 13% in 2010 in Witney. If they can't beat that then they really are in trouble. At their peak, in 1997, they won over 30% and have finished ahead of the Lib Dems in four of the six elections since (and including) 1992. It might be a weak seat for them but it's not one where they're badly placed vs the Lib Dems.

Not necessarily true. Once the electorate figure out who the challenger is in a by election, the third party gets squeezed. There are next to no consequences nationally.

SouthamObserver said:

Excellent stuff - many thanks. If the LDs don't take second place here questions about Farron's leadership will start being asked, surely.

Given the effort they've put in, I think the LibDems need to be north of 15% to show progress in Witney.

A share north of 20%, and well clear of Labour, would be a good result for them.

One thing in the LDs' favour not mentioned here is that (according to Guido) the Tory candidate is a Leaver. He'll still win of course, but with the 46L/54R result there must be plenty of Tory Remainers who'd consider lending a vote to the LDs.

Nice piece by Douglas Murray on the hate-crime statistics industry:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/try-turn-whole-life-one-big-hate-crime/

LDs still invisible at the national level and no evidence that they are attracting disaffected centrist Labour types; instead they seem to going to the Tories or Green.

Difficult to know what Farron can do.
One weak spot - in an era when our economic model is under great scrutiny - is to have his shadow Chancellor in the Lords (Baroness Kramer). Someone even more invisible than Farron.

What's Vince Cable doing these days?

Essexit said:

One thing in the LDs' favour not mentioned here is that (according to Guido) the Tory candidate is a Leaver. He'll still win of course, but with the 46L/54R result there must be plenty of Tory Remainers who'd consider lending a vote to the LDs.

I'm not familiar with the area but that's not the impression that i get generally of Tory Remainers. The vast majority were unenthusiastic about the EU but saw remaining as the better of two bad options, and and now reconciled to the done deal that Brexit is. How someone voted or campaigned in the spring is largely a dead issue unless they're obsessive on the point.

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Excellent stuff - many thanks. If the LDs don't take second place here questions about Farron's leadership will start being asked, surely.

Yes. The LDs are treating this as a marginal seat for them and throwing in resources to do well. Labour seem to be barely bothered. With the Jo Cox seat voting on same day, maybe Labour see it as not worth the effort? But there is a chance (slim) that the media may point out how the main opposition party is slipping down in an election, worse if Labour lose their deposit.

Labour won 13% in 2010 in Witney. If they can't beat that then they really are in trouble. At their peak, in 1997, they won over 30% and have finished ahead of the Lib Dems in four of the six elections since (and including) 1992. It might be a weak seat for them but it's not one where they're badly placed vs the Lib Dems.

Not necessarily true. Once the electorate figure out who the challenger is in a by election, the third party gets squeezed. There are next to no consequences nationally.

That's true but if the principal party of opposition is overtaken by the party starting fourth, it's still a poor result. There's no good reason for Labour not to be the challenger: they start well-placed and have the historic results to back up that it wasn't simply a blip in 2015. It ought to be Labour squeezing the LD vote.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Anyone know if there are any markets on Batley and Spen. According to wiki the following candidates are standing:

English Independence Corbyn Anti
Labour Tracy Brabin
Liberty GB Jack Buckby
National Front Richard Edmonds
BNP David Furness
English Democrats Therese Hirst
Independent Waqas Ali Khan
Independent Garry Kitchin
One Love Party Ankit Love
Independent Henry Mayhew

Labour to romp home on a low turnout. English Democrats to come 2nd?

Where is Elvis's bus pass when you need one?

david_herdson said:

Essexit said:

One thing in the LDs' favour not mentioned here is that (according to Guido) the Tory candidate is a Leaver. He'll still win of course, but with the 46L/54R result there must be plenty of Tory Remainers who'd consider lending a vote to the LDs.

I'm not familiar with the area but that's not the impression that i get generally of Tory Remainers. The vast majority were unenthusiastic about the EU but saw remaining as the better of two bad options, and and now reconciled to the done deal that Brexit is. How someone voted or campaigned in the spring is largely a dead issue unless they're obsessive on the point.

Fair - I'd revise 'plenty' to 'a few'. Tories who really do care about the EU exist, I've met a handful. But yes, most are pragmatic about it now.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Anyone know if there are any markets on Batley and Spen. According to wiki the following candidates are standing:

English Independence Corbyn Anti
Labour Tracy Brabin
Liberty GB Jack Buckby
National Front Richard Edmonds
BNP David Furness
English Democrats Therese Hirst
Independent Waqas Ali Khan
Independent Garry Kitchin
One Love Party Ankit Love
Independent Henry Mayhew

Labour to romp home on a low turnout. English Democrats to come 2nd?

Doubt we'll see any markets on this. Someone has been taking an enterprising (if illegal) approach to campaigning:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/someone-is-distributing-fake-leaflets-to-try-and-disrupt-the

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Herdson, tactics are for battles. Strategies are for wars.

Quite. You and I get that; my point is that I'm not sure that Farron does.

Morris_Dancer said:

Nice piece by Douglas Murray on the hate-crime statistics industry:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/try-turn-whole-life-one-big-hate-crime/

Sorry but I couldn't read that headline without thinking of the classic Judge Dredd nemesis, Judge Death.

His byline: "The Crime is Life. The Sentence is Death".

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Anyone know if there are any markets on Batley and Spen. According to wiki the following candidates are standing:

English Independence Corbyn Anti
Labour Tracy Brabin
Liberty GB Jack Buckby
National Front Richard Edmonds
BNP David Furness
English Democrats Therese Hirst
Independent Waqas Ali Khan
Independent Garry Kitchin
One Love Party Ankit Love
Independent Henry Mayhew

Labour to romp home on a low turnout. English Democrats to come 2nd?

It appears that the racist, xenophobe oppressed, too-long-ignored wwc vote will be split.

Moses_ said:

BBC news breaking

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has postponed a planned visit to France amid a row over Syria, French presidential sources say."

Amusingly, the first (and so far only) bank to announce it's moving it's European headquarters out of London in a Russian government owned one, VTB.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyndall, ha. When not being distracted by videogames, I do sometimes get distracted by reading Wiki entries about history and fiction. I remember reading about Judge Death.

He'd make a better Home Secretary than Rudd.

Mr. Herdson, on the other hand, if the Lib Dems are less an empire and more a roving band of barbarians, the line between tactics and strategies becomes rather faded.

Anyway, I must be off to do some work.

Tactics without a coherent strategy (or perhaps more accurately, a strategy that was ossified in the 1990s) is how the Lib Dems came to be shagged in 2010-15. The barbarians were invited to join the ruling classes and both those they joined and those they left came to despise them.

Cyclefree said:

I have only had a chance to glance at the threads and follow events.

But the willingness of people to overlook or excuse Trump's appalling behavior and comments is simply astonishing and really quite appalling.

Trump is no gentleman. He behaves like an uncivilized uncouth boor. It is no excuse to say that people used to behave like that 30 years ago or may do so still in private. Boasting about sexual assault, about humiliating another person is gross behavior and it was 30 years ago as well. Men were perfectly well able to know the difference between right and wrong, between what it is to behave in a gentlemanly manner and what it is to behave like a brute. They know this now and we do a great disservice to those men who do know how to behave and control themselves and treat others with courtesy and politeness and respect to assume that they are really like Trump and only behaving well out of political correctness or fear of being criticized.

If we rightly criticize migrants from certain countries/cultures for their boorish/criminal/insulting/misogynistic behavior to women, then we should also do so when white middle class rich men with an overweening sense of indispensability or entitlement do the same. Or indeed when any man who is not a migrant behaves in such a way. Sexual assault is an abhorrent crime, no matter who does it.

Trump's behavior shows his unfitness for public office. IMO.

Just because he claims to speak for those who feel excluded does not excuse him from expectations of civilized behaviour. The problems of the "left behind" classes are not served (well or at all) by people who condescend to them, who use them for their own purposes and who show, by the way they talk about and treat those who are more vulnerable than they are, that they have no regard for the weak, the abandoned, the isolated, but simply see them as people to be used to advance their own ambitions.

That's all.

Yes.

And I am reasonably confident that plenty of Ohio barflies see this as the sort of behaviour that would render Trump as the bar asshole in their preferred haunts.

Very interesting article - thanks John. I can confirm that the number of requests I've seen to Labour members to go and help in the by-election is zero. I expect I've missed some as I'm not local, but still I think it's odd.

On Batley and Spen, right-wing nationalists are really spoiled for choice - I see 5 candidates who I'd think are to the right of UKIP. Considering the circumstances leading to the by-election, you might have thought they'd be a bit more shy.

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With the turnout likely to be down and the Conservative vote share likely to drop, there is going to be plenty for everyone else. Corbynites are motivated for their man so I don't expect the Labour vote share to drop much, if at all. I've bet on the 2/1 that Labour will get between 10-15% of the vote share and I'm as anxious about the top end as the bottom end.

To date Labour have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations in every electoral test that they've faced to date. That pattern might well continue.

Alastair, completely off topic, do you have any good advice of where to look for information on flexible draw down pensions and benefits versus negatives of switching from existing funds/final salary/etc. Obviously it would eventually mean Financial adviser if really looking at it but want to do some initial searching.

You could start off here (if you haven't already):

https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/?gclid=CjwKEAjwm_K_BRDx5o-sxq6ouXASJAC7TsFLNZYnsHvgOJPPY3iTOk8sQuuz8iMd7xfWze92FNdLURoCGuzw_wcB

FTPT

PlatoSaid said:

I've been genuinely shocked by the crap demographics in these polls - and then used to drive the news cycle. 58% of the CNN poll sample were Dems before the debate WTF? The WSJ one was a sample of 477 IIRC with a 8pt bias to Dems.

And all the stations are running with Trump polling meltdown "why hasn't he thrown in the towel - stick a fork in him"

It's not an accident. There's far too much evidence of it used to make the news.

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

A 8 point lean to Dems is entirely expected.

PlatoSaid said:

Gardenwalker said:

PlatoSaid said:

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

IanB2 said:

FPT I remember the post-analysis from POTUS 2012 when the consensus was that the republicans were doomed so long as they remained captured by their extreme Christians. That bit of their problem at least seems to have receded a little.

Evangelical Christians have accepted Trump's contrition - we're humans and we sin/repent.

Mormons are understandably more Umm, but the Utah GOP have said they'd back him.

SCOTUS is the key here. It's enormously important and I fear that very many PBers simply don't get it as a swing point.

Is there evidence that swing voters are motivated by the supreme court? You'd imagine they'd be unswingable if they thought it was an extremely important issue

After the tape - Trump needed to recover his base first - he seems to have largely done it. The media fussing has barely dented him, and generated more DK who are still Shy Trumpers.

SCOTUS is much wider than Roe vs Wade - it's death penalty and loads of other things we aren't even thinking of yet.

The liberal left are in charge of:

- education, via unions, faculties et al
- the media
- most multinationals in favour of globalisation

Plus prospect of immigration from alien cultures ie Arabs/ME

The view was that without SCOTUS - and a Democrat in office - the GOP was buggered. Social change would be too far gone, and the voting base would be swung massively towards Muslims. Immigration, liberal ideas et al would be embedded and America would fundamentally change.

Makes you wonder afresh how on Earth the Republicans ended up with Trump. And not just Trump, but Carson, Cruz, Rubio - all in their way mad, bad, and/or dangerous to know.

Trump is a NYC liberal from Queens. He talks pugnaciously because that's his home town lingo - so it's hitting people, knocking them out et al. It's just colloquial. It upsets the PC brigade - and loved as common man by blue collars.

He's swapped sides because IMO - he thinks America has lost it's way, it's become supine/losing its edge and pride 'Make America Great Again' isn't a slogan - it's a core belief.

I'd stick him in the Reagan mindset politically - clearly he's not suave - but he's a cowboy.

One could respect Reagan.

NickPalmer said:

Very interesting article - thanks John. I can confirm that the number of requests I've seen to Labour members to go and help in the by-election is zero. I expect I've missed some as I'm not local, but still I think it's odd.

On Batley and Spen, right-wing nationalists are really spoiled for choice - I see 5 candidates who I'd think are to the right of UKIP. Considering the circumstances leading to the by-election, you might have thought they'd be a bit more shy.

Why? The DPP had to move the suspect to London for trial, after all. Presumably no Yorkshire jury could be trusted...

rcs1000 said:

Moses_ said:

BBC news breaking

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has postponed a planned visit to France amid a row over Syria, French presidential sources say."

Amusingly, the first (and so far only) bank to announce it's moving it's European headquarters out of London in a Russian government owned one, VTB.

"Moos said: "We are looking at several factors to decide where we switch our European headquarters to, including regulation, fiscal policy and the talent pool. Frankfurt, Paris and Vienna are all being considered."

Scratch Paris then.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/vtb-brexit-london-hq-move-2016-10

It seems Clinton can pull a crowd too. Secret Service estimate 18,000 at Ohio rally :

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300333-clintons-ohio-rally-sets-attendance-record

AlastairMeeks said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With the turnout likely to be down and the Conservative vote share likely to drop, there is going to be plenty for everyone else. Corbynites are motivated for their man so I don't expect the Labour vote share to drop much, if at all. I've bet on the 2/1 that Labour will get between 10-15% of the vote share and I'm as anxious about the top end as the bottom end.

To date Labour have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations in every electoral test that they've faced to date. That pattern might well continue.

Alastair, completely off topic, do you have any good advice of where to look for information on flexible draw down pensions and benefits versus negatives of switching from existing funds/final salary/etc. Obviously it would eventually mean Financial adviser if really looking at it but want to do some initial searching.

You could start off here (if you haven't already):

https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/?gclid=CjwKEAjwm_K_BRDx5o-sxq6ouXASJAC7TsFLNZYnsHvgOJPPY3iTOk8sQuuz8iMd7xfWze92FNdLURoCGuzw_wcB

Hargreaves have a free guide you can request here:

www.hl.co.uk/pensions/drawdown

If you are Ok with managing your investments and aren't going to get tempted into spending all the money on the first day, I think it is well worth investigating. It is my plan for the DC part of my pension, which I will be able to draw in about two years time. I wouldn't, however, think that trading a final salary arrangement for it is likely to be sensible?

AlastairMeeks said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With the turnout likely to be down and the Conservative vote share likely to drop, there is going to be plenty for everyone else. Corbynites are motivated for their man so I don't expect the Labour vote share to drop much, if at all. I've bet on the 2/1 that Labour will get between 10-15% of the vote share and I'm as anxious about the top end as the bottom end.

To date Labour have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations in every electoral test that they've faced to date. That pattern might well continue.

Alastair, completely off topic, do you have any good advice of where to look for information on flexible draw down pensions and benefits versus negatives of switching from existing funds/final salary/etc. Obviously it would eventually mean Financial adviser if really looking at it but want to do some initial searching.

You could start off here (if you haven't already):

https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/?gclid=CjwKEAjwm_K_BRDx5o-sxq6ouXASJAC7TsFLNZYnsHvgOJPPY3iTOk8sQuuz8iMd7xfWze92FNdLURoCGuzw_wcB

Moneysavingexpert have a good free booklet
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/annuity-guide

Google 'Invested Annuity' too, can go up and down but better rate than standard annuity. I think only Aviva doing them now, LV and Pru have stopped.
If you're lucky enough to have final salary, look carefully before moving out of it.
DYOR.

logical_song said:

PlatoSaid said:

Gardenwalker said:

PlatoSaid said:

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

IanB2 said:

FPT I remember the post-analysis from POTUS 2012 when the consensus was that the republicans were doomed so long as they remained captured by their extreme Christians. That bit of their problem at least seems to have receded a little.

Evangelical Christians have accepted Trump's contrition - we're humans and we sin/repent.

Mormons are understandably more Umm, but the Utah GOP have said they'd back him.

SCOTUS is the key here. It's enormously important and I fear that very many PBers simply don't get it as a swing point.

Is there evidence that swing voters are motivated by the supreme court? You'd imagine they'd be unswingable if they thought it was an extremely important issue

After the tape - Trump needed to recover his base first - he seems to have largely done it. The media fussing has barely dented him, and generated more DK who are still Shy Trumpers.

SCOTUS is much wider than Roe vs Wade - it's death penalty and loads of other things we aren't even thinking of yet.

The liberal left are in charge of:

- education, via unions, faculties et al
- the media
- most multinationals in favour of globalisation

Plus prospect of immigration from alien cultures ie Arabs/ME

The view was that without SCOTUS - and a Democrat in office - the GOP was buggered. Social change would be too far gone, and the voting base would be swung massively towards Muslims. Immigration, liberal ideas et al would be embedded and America would fundamentally change.

Makes you wonder afresh how on Earth the Republicans ended up with Trump. And not just Trump, but Carson, Cruz, Rubio - all in their way mad, bad, and/or dangerous to know.

Trump is a NYC liberal from Queens. He talks pugnaciously because that's his home town lingo - so it's hitting people, knocking them out et al. It's just colloquial. It upsets the PC brigade - and loved as common man by blue collars.

He's swapped sides because IMO - he thinks America has lost it's way, it's become supine/losing its edge and pride 'Make America Great Again' isn't a slogan - it's a core belief.

I'd stick him in the Reagan mindset politically - clearly he's not suave - but he's a cowboy.

One could respect Reagan.

At the time he stood and was elected there was a lot of scepticism (being polite) about his capability and intellect. Whether he made an impact or was a clueless (if talented presentationally) frontman, and whether he changed the world or was just in office at a lucky time, are both interesting debates.

JackW said:

It seems Clinton can pull a crowd too. Secret Service estimate 18,000 at Ohio rally :

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300333-clintons-ohio-rally-sets-attendance-record

But but what about Carrie Trumpshaw?

Theuniondivvie said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Anyone know if there are any markets on Batley and Spen. According to wiki the following candidates are standing:

English Independence Corbyn Anti
Labour Tracy Brabin
Liberty GB Jack Buckby
National Front Richard Edmonds
BNP David Furness
English Democrats Therese Hirst
Independent Waqas Ali Khan
Independent Garry Kitchin
One Love Party Ankit Love
Independent Henry Mayhew

Labour to romp home on a low turnout. English Democrats to come 2nd?

It appears that the racist, xenophobe oppressed, too-long-ignored wwc vote will be split.

Yes plenty of options there for the salt-of-the-earth born-in native English white working class, forgotten silent majority, love.

AlastairMeeks said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With the turnout likely to be down and the Conservative vote share likely to drop, there is going to be plenty for everyone else. Corbynites are motivated for their man so I don't expect the Labour vote share to drop much, if at all. I've bet on the 2/1 that Labour will get between 10-15% of the vote share and I'm as anxious about the top end as the bottom end.

To date Labour have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations in every electoral test that they've faced to date. That pattern might well continue.

Alastair, completely off topic, do you have any good advice of where to look for information on flexible draw down pensions and benefits versus negatives of switching from existing funds/final salary/etc. Obviously it would eventually mean Financial adviser if really looking at it but want to do some initial searching.

You could start off here (if you haven't already):

https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/?gclid=CjwKEAjwm_K_BRDx5o-sxq6ouXASJAC7TsFLNZYnsHvgOJPPY3iTOk8sQuuz8iMd7xfWze92FNdLURoCGuzw_wcB

Thank you, I had looked there initially but will do so in more detail.

Pro_Rata said:

Perhaps they are restricting this one to seasoned doorknockers, given that rival campaigns might contain some contingent of interesting characters.

Sheesh! I've been knocking on doors in EVERY election since 1966. What do I have to do to become "seasoned"???

Alanbrooke said:

PlatoSaid said:

Pro_Rata said:

Cyclefree said:

I have only had a chance to glance at the threads and follow events.

But the willingness of people to overlook or excuse Trump's appalling behavior and comments is simply astonishing and really quite appalling.

Trump is no gentleman. He behaves like ns.

That's all.

Yes.

And I am reasonably confident that plenty of Ohio barflies see this as the sort of behaviour that would render Trump as the bar asshole in their preferred haunts.

Dearest @Cyclefree

I've said it on an earlier thread - but it doesn't bother me an iota. I worked at BT sales offices in the 90s where this was commonplace pub banter, and depending on the company at others.

I think it's a massive fuss about nothing for those who either hear it and dismiss - or care about other stuff a lot more. It shrieks chatterati class outrage who don't get it as a cultural thing. Sex in the City was very ribald. A Twitter friend was a male stripper and most amusing on his hen night experiences.

I simply think it's an attitude divide - women who aren't bothered give as good as they get - in kind. What currency 'in kind' comes in is another matter.

Snap !

I worked in a BT sales and marketing office in the 80s and it was a pretty raucous place, the women giving as good as they got.

I worked as a child labourer during the industrial revolution and you wouldn't believe the beatings I got there. Never did me any harm.

PlatoSaid said:

Alanbrooke said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

IanB2 said:

FPT I remember the post-analysis from POTUS 2012 when the consensus was that the republicans were doomed so long as they remained captured by their extreme Christians. That bit of their problem at least seems to have receded a little.

Evangelical Christians have accepted Trump's contrition - we're humans and we sin/repent.

Mormons are understandably more Umm, but the Utah GOP have said they'd back him.

SCOTUS is the key here. It's enormously important and I fear that very many PBers simply don't get it as a swing point.

Is there evidence that swing voters are motivated by the supreme court? You'd imagine they'd be unswingable if they thought it was an extremely important issue

After the tape - Trump needt, barely a scratch

hmmm

I dont like either candidate, but if Europe is an example " controversial" canndiates and parties get under-recordced both in the polls and increasingly in the exit forecasts.

In German elections the media has consistently called the AfD vote about 3-4% below what they actually achieve. The problem with villainisation is eventually people start lying because they dont want to say what they think.

I cant see the US being that different.

The immense liberal left sanctimonious tutting in the media is so tiresome - it's an outrage and exaggeration contest. 91% of Trumpers didn't give a toss, an extra 2% of undecideds liked him for it.

The disconnect between what the media thinks and what sections of the people think is enormous.

I'm still waiting for a Hilaryfan to give us a straight answer to should Bill be "First Husband" ? His past is as colourful as Trumps, so should he be allowed into the White House ?

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Excellent stuff - many thanks. If the LDs don't take second place here questions about Farron's leadership will start being asked, surely.

Yes. The LDs are treating this as a marginal seat for them and throwing in resources to do well. Labour seem to be barely bothered. With the Jo Cox seat voting on same day, maybe Labour see it as not worth the effort? But there is a chance (slim) that the media may point out how the main opposition party is slipping down in an election, worse if Labour lose their deposit.

Labour won 13% in 2010 in Witney. If they can't beat that then they really are in trouble. At their peak, in 1997, they won over 30% and have finished ahead of the Lib Dems in four of the six elections since (and including) 1992. It might be a weak seat for them but it's not one where they're badly placed vs the Lib Dems.

Not necessarily true. Once the electorate figure out who the challenger is in a by election, the third party gets squeezed. There are next to no consequences nationally.

That's true but if the principal party of opposition is overtaken by the party starting fourth, it's still a poor result. There's no good reason for Labour not to be the challenger: they start well-placed and have the historic results to back up that it wasn't simply a blip in 2015. It ought to be Labour squeezing the LD vote.

That would be very true if Labour were putting in the same effort as the LibDems - but ,of course, they are not!

And whose fault is that?