politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight
This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in just 46 days time.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
sneaky edit there! tse's Yorkshire link is lost
polls before said that only a small percentage ( 25/30%?) thought that voting LEAVE would have negative effects on the country
compare that to the over 50% if people who think trump is a racist and who think he will use nukes. and a lack of extra voter registration
regan forgot he had been shot.
The second will get him a good few votes and as for the first parts ofAmerica is more like South Africa used to be than South Africa is. Outside places like NY most people lead pretty segregated lives
There was a curious moment in the documentary last night when Boris met a local campaign manager (can't remember where, may have been Leicestershire) and the manager was very bullish about how things were going locally. Perhaps it's confirmation bias but Boris did look taken aback by that as though that wasn't quite what he wanted to hear.
Source: former constituency co-ordinator for Vote Leave
lying ted cruz bends over for the man who accused his dad of killing jfk and who called his wife ugly
2. the same poll said had 69% of people saying that they were concerned about trumps views on immigrants and black people.
https://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2016/09/23/news-from-anna-soubry-mp-september-23-2016/#more-25848
I've not expressed a view on the local changes (which divide Broxtowe into two, both of them less Tory than the current one because of additions from outside).
anything higher than a 25% chance for trump winning worries me, because he is a crazy racist
flip flopping cruz wont move the dial either way, i just find it funny h being humiliated
This is not ancient history - it holds to this day.
https://twitter.com/AngelaCassidy83/status/779360951430680576
"Labour has lost the support of more than half of those who voted Labour in 2015 and Brexit in 2016, according to new Times/YouGov polling.
Just 48 per cent of Brexit-backing Labour voters said they would stick with the party in the next election. Nine per cent said they would switch to the Tories and eight per cent to UKIP."
https://leftfootforward.org/2016/09/brexit-voters-are-ditching-labour/
Conventional class-consciousness has been overtaken by collective resentment. We must face the fact Labour as we know it may very well soon not exist."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2016/09/new-times-john-harris-why-labour-losing-its-heartland
Looking around my study very little of the goodies have been made in the EU, save probably most of the books. The keyboard on which I type, the computers, the monitors, the Kindle, the phone, the printer have all been made in countries that are not members of the single market and which do not have a free trade agreement with the EU. Yet they were all bought here in the UK.
Leave in the UK might turn out to be something of a unique case. The EU was uniquely overbearing and the status quo membership of the UK had become politically untenable here.
Leave won because it combined the 35-40% voting against immigration and concerned about globalisation with the 10-15% who were concerned about sovereignty.
Without either of the other Leave couldn't have won. In the US, it might transpire that Trump just has the former.
Parts of Middlesex went to Hillingdon and others to new unitary authorities formed out of the rest of the county.
We now have an absurd hotch-potch of unitary and two-tier local Government which is confusing and unsatisfactory. No one and especially the Conservatives has the stomach for further re-organisation though in effect many of the authorities are already merging via collaborative working, partnerships, joint ventures and the like.
I also question the viability of having individuals serving as both Borough and County Councillors contemporaneously or even at the same time. They are separate sovereign authorities and businesses and it looks odd to have the same individuals having a foot in both camps.
May be Broxtowe voters could get Conservative MPs next time if Sourby is deselected, hic..
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/779381369604571136
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/779381076519186432
The overwhelming majority of these "two headed" councillors do so out of a sense of public duty and a strong desire to do the best for their area.
My problem is the local Councillor can afford to be parochial - the County Councillor has a larger area and I think carrying that parochial attitude up the line inhibits strategic decision making which often involves disadvantaging one area to achieve a greater benefit elsewhere. That benefit won't be obvious - the disadvantage will.
* "Made" is a relative term.
But, more seriously, there is a surprising amount of "stuff" that's made in Europe.
Nate Silver's model seems inconsistent on the relationship between national vote and swing states.
He currently shows Clinton with an average lead of 2.6% nationally. He also shows a much higher likelihood of Clinton winning the national vote but losing the electoral college (7.2%) than of Trump doing the same (1.2%). That implies Trump's votes are more efficiently distributed than Clinton's.
However, those figures also mean that a 1.3% swing to Trump would make the national votes equal, whereas Silver's state-by-state figures would require a 1.75% swing to Trump for him to win the electoral college. That implies Clinton's votes are more efficiently distributed than Trump's!
Membership of the single market is not needed to sell into it. Lots of countries manage to do that quite successfully and don't have to belong to the EEA or pay subscriptions or accept any sort of free movement of people arrangement to do so.