politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s local by-election woes continue
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s local by-election woes continue
LAB's local by-election woes
continue losing another seat to the LDs. https://t.co/emc3Bw5zHn
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In the real world, important NEC news:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/how-jeremy-corbyns-nec-opponents-have-been-strengthened
There is (as per this site) still real passion and anger around Brexit, and he has a chance of voicing it.
But, as good as their council wins seem to be, the LDs need to work on their media strategy.
Voting has closed in Labour's leadership contest after Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith made their final pitches for support.
A total of 640,000 people were eligible to vote, an increase of more than 80,000 from the 2015 contest.
The result will be announced in Liverpool on Saturday.
Mr Smith thanked his team and said he had "enjoyed every moment", while Mr Corbyn told supporters: "Together we are very, very strong."
The electorate was made up of 343,500 full members, 168,000 union affiliated supporters and 129,000 registered supporters, who paid £25 each to vote.
Each category has increased in size since last summer's leadership contest, which Mr Corbyn won on a landslide.
Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far
There has been little impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy so far, says the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
That's not in your bar chart
It's almost as if the country isn't listening to the politicians any more and is just carrying on regardless. Who'd have guessed it....?
But I'm mystified as to what it should be. Advocating liberalism would be a start.
I don't yet see any evidence that credibility is returning nationally, although the media /opposition sneering about the 'irrelevant' Lib Dems seems to be backfiring on those saying this, on anecdote only. So no great surprise that the national polls are showing a very different picture.
If this is right and you want to see where the Lib Dem parliamentary progress will come from, look carefully at council gains - not just by-elections but see where the Lib Dems take control / become largest party in councils, as a sure sign that these are rich areas, rather than just looking at seats lost last time.
Allerdale: Christchurch.
Carmarthenshire: Cilycwn.
Cherwell: Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote.
Gateshead: Chopwell & Rolands Gill.
North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig.
North Warwickshire: Arley & Whitacre.
South Northamptonshire: Old Stratford.
Suffolk: Hadleigh.
Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central.
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8614/elections-september-20th-22th
The North Warwickshire ward is in the Nuneaton constituency.
"Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' We have to do everything possible to improve policing, to go right at implicit bias. There are good, honorable, cool-headed police officers. We've seen them in action in New York in the last, you know, 48 hours because of the terrorist attacks. We can do better. We have got to rein in what is absolutely inexplicable and we have got to have law enforcement respect communities and communities respect law enforcement because they have to work together."
I get what Hillary is trying to say, and it is a good and important message. But.
""Maybe I can, by speaking directly to white people, say, 'Look, this is not who we are.' "
She has already told 23% of the US electorate, which is probably close to 35% of white people precisely who they are, explicitly this IS who you are, deplorables.
There is currently no person in the US who is worse placed than Hillary to tell white people "This is not who we are"
Nor has George Osborne’s suggestion of an 18 per cent house price crash materialized. At the time, Osborne’s allies said he was not exaggerating and that the economic advice he received was far more pessimistic than he let on. If true, this raises serious questions about the quality of economic advice being issued at the Treasury.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/brexit-bounce-continues/
The left were able to pillory them as Tory collaborators and the Conservative strategy to focus on the risk of a SNP/Miliband government meant that the soft right and centrists were scared against voting for them.
But actually, I think a lot of people will look back at the coalition government as an era of stability, moderation and growth. The LDs should publicly regret the sacrifice of their totemic tuition fee policy, but take pride in their achievements in government.
There's a market for sanity right now, though it needs a few eye catching policies of its own and, as I say, a narrative to counter the general media chortling at LD irrelevance.
They won't expect much, in fact they might fear him, but would implicitly discount any opportunity for real progress until 2020 on the hope American politics would have got the message and changed by then.
Sounds like a sure fire winner.
"a healthy and sceptical Britain ... knows experts are capable of all being wrong"
That was a huge error, one that mystified a lot of PB Tories. Including this one. Afterwards it transpired that it was Paddy Ashdown convince Clegg to run the campaign that they were the internal opposition to the Tories. Idiot man.
But, he needs to be careful. Soon the EU will be yesterday's news and the question will then arise again as to what the Lib Dems are for.
A smart Lib Dem leader would be positioning himself/herself for the realities of the changed UK geopolitical landscape to come, which is likely to be rather different in the decades to come.
Basically he has a very narrow route to 270 and some of the states are very rickety bridges. We'll have some idea this time next week when polls start reflecting the 1st debate (although there will be a time-lag). For instance the polls are dropping back for Trump as the Clinton Collapse fades into the background. His hope is that they will plateau at a substantially higher level than pre September 11th. But Romney was ahead of Obama post 1st debate, wasn't he?
* Barring 'Shy Trumpers' or a failed polling methodology** - if there are any.
** Missing people from the polls who decide to vote Republican
It is true that the national polls do not show the same picture . However the raw poll data does show some improvement which goes after weighting and other adjustments . The last Ipsos Mori poll for example had raw data with 10% Lib Dems and 6% UKIP voters . After weightings the published figures were 6% Lib Dem and 9% UKIP .
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This fanciful discussion acts as if the markets didn't have clever people working for them and looking at the future and pricing in their predictions. No one except a small group of Meeks now doubt that we will leave the EU, and yet the markets are powering ahead, most people think there will be a fairly hard or very hard BrExit, and quite likely initially WTO conditions, and yet the markets are powering ahead.
The theory was that consumer confidence would collapse, as Britain would panic about Brexit......Brexit would only happen if a majority voted for it, and if they did then why would they go on to suffer a crisis of confidence if they got what they wanted?
Not a majority interest to be sure, but it could be worth 20% of the electorate.
(Declaration of Interest: I lived there for 4 years from the age of 0)
Do you disagree? I would have thought that it was a statement of fact and nothing to do with a bicycling Jesus.
Osborne was wrong.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-stop-shortchanging-the-poor-young-and-indulging-the-rich-old-a3348491.html
He's simultaneously trying to claim that the Triple Lock was an egregious piece of cynical Tory vote-chasing and that it was a wonderful LibDem policy of which the party can be proud.
None of this has any bearing on whether Brexit will bring disaster, or not. But then Sunil knew that very well; he just chose to cut off the ONS comment half way through.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowlands_Gill
How much does the rest of Pennsylvania hate Philly? Many of the most restrictive laws passed in Harrisburg (capital, population 50,000) apply only to cities in PA with a population of more than 1 million, i.e. only apply to Philly.
Bet Trump wishes the course of the Delaware would shift a mile or so so that Philly falls into New Jersey.
Farron has made some big mistakes nationally, by ailienating even the moderately Euro sceptics by nailing the LDs flag so closely to the Europhile mast and by failing to properly put Nick Clegg out to grass. They should and could be doing a lot better in national elections at a time when Labour has frankly been a shambles. In local elections though, such considerations are far less relevant.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears on November 23rd. Probably retaining the link to wages but ditching the 2.5%.
At the next local election, I will probably vote LD.
I voted Leave so that makes me a bigot, but I don't see the point of voting Ukip now. Brexit is coming and Ukip is now a national party.
But for local affairs, we can safely let the yellow peril back.
Were you eligible in the end ?
"‘I voted for Owen Smith,’ says Jeremy Corbyn’s ex-wife
Professor Jane Chapman—who was married to the Labour leader between 1974 and 1979—said on 5 Live this morning that, ‘saddened and upset’ by the state of the Labour party, she voted for Owen Smith in this year's Labour leadership election."
The Spectator, today.
Depending on choices they make (big if), it would be easy to be long term bullish on the LDs.
I've never seen a more vacuous, anonymous or poor candidate run for leadership of a major party, ever.
I can't find it in myself to back Smith any further mind, I think the die is cast having heard the respective parties.