politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has overwhelming victory over TMay at PMQs

1st like Jezza

Other key take away from the LA Times tracker, no change in support amongst women.

Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

Theresa May = Gordon Brown in kitten heels.

I think she only looked good because she was up against Mother Superior Andrea Leadsom

FPT was this such a bad idea for the Tories?

Philip_Thompson said:

taffys said:

I suspect many tories will be furious May has given labour a topic they can unite around

Why, there's nearly four years to go still in this Parliament, plenty more time to have multiple united and divided moments.

To be Machiavellian for a moment then getting Labour to unite behind Corbyn in the final week of their Leadership campaign is quite an achievement

A group of Black Lives Matter activists including a cousin of Ralph Fiennes, a former Oxford University student and an organic farmer

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3788741/Black-Lives-Matter-activists-admit-charges-City-Airport-protest.html

Even Sacha Baron Cohen at his best couldn't come up with this...I iz hear for hat Black Lives Matter...but you are white...iz black in my heart and iz come from the ghetto of Oxford.

If she can't defend/sell her flagship policy then she's got major performance issues.

She should remember the stories are ruthless. An absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she can't defend/sell her flagship policy then she's got major performance issues.

She should remember the stories are ruthless. An absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.

Where's yer Dave now?

Jezza has been playing rope a dope for the past year

The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

Is Juncker really only 61? He looks about 10 years older.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

It is just baffling.

LadyBucket said:

The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.

TOPPING said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

It is just baffling.

Some people REALLY love grammar schools.

She's taken the Thatcher comparison to her head, and seems to be acting like she is all-powerful, and that she will do what she wants when she wants. Squandering her honeymoon capital very quickly on Grammar schools - and people/media starting to get restless over Brexit means Brexit. She needs to win her own mandate before it all falls apart. The idea that she can just glide through the biggest shake up in UK politics since the 2nd world war - and sweep an easy 2020 election on the other side, is not going to wash.

Her game plan seems a bit Hillaryesque - relying on the shitness of her opponent to coast through.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TOPPING said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

It is just baffling.

Some people REALLY love grammar schools.

Why not? I went to Grammar School too.

Free at the point of use, unlike Dave and TSE's old schools.

Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them according to yougov. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020

Opinium polling shows a plurality support grammar schools in every age group:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/14/why-theresa-may-feels-she-can-teach-britain-to-love-grammar-scho/

"But where will the Prime Minister find the fiercest opposition? The only people who are emphatically against grammar schools turns out to be in this survey those with doctorates. Nearly half of PhDs surveyed (48 per cent) oppose the idea, with only 30 per cent so far in favour."

HYUFD said:

Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020

Maybe. But it slightly undermines her No.10 lectern speech telling us how her government was going to be one for everyone, not just the children of pointy-elbowed Tory voters.

Alistair said:

It also looks like the LA Times tracker doesn't ahve a LV screen. Instead it tracks likelihood to vote at the bottom. Which has Democrats more likely to vote than Republicans - which is basically unheard of.

IIUC it's a single panel, so if their original sample is wonky, which is probably is, all their polls will be wonky. But that means you can see the trends quickly without as much sampling error noise.

From another forum I read:

Media responses to today's PMQs has been overwhelmingly positive for Corbyn, as far as I can see, almost as if the massive media conspiracy to unseat Jeremy Corbyn is suspended whenever he actually does his job competently.

FF43 said:

The whole point of the grammar schools manoeuvre was to pander to the base. If she can't get support there (which surprises me), it's dead. It certainly doesn't have any merit in educational policy terms.

There are probably fewer Tories against repeal of the Hunting Act than are against grammar schools.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

LadyBucket said:

The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.

Corbyn's a far more attractive figure than May. In a fairytale he'd be cast as a wizard while she's a hole-in-one witch.

Hell has frozen over.
And this was just yesterday:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

The government need to come up with answers on grammar schools and non grammar schooling fast.

Speedy said:

Hell has frozen over.
And this was just yesterday:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

The impressive thing about the serious punters on this site isn't so much how insightful they are, although they are, as how quickly they reverse themselves on new evidence.

Speedy said:

Hell has frozen over.
And this was just yesterday:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

I suspect the latter. We had months of this sort of excited reportng of something going wrong for the leave camp before the referendum, bless him.

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.

You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.

It does when you add in a plurality of LDs too. You do not need 51% under FPTP to get a majority, you need 35 to 40%

I don't think PMQs really affects the public (as much as political journos get excited about it) - but it does affect backbench relations...

Pong said:

@Pulpstar fpt - I rebacked trump @ ~3.3 when the Clinton/trump book went down to 91%. I also built up an exposure for the first time in months by laying the combined sanders/Biden @~7%.

Basically I'm treading water right now until the debates - the only position I'm taking is against the field.

Rough figures;

Clinton/trump +18.5
Biden/sanders -2.5
Else >=+18

That's a superb book. Did you get there by backing Trump significantly when he was at very long odds?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TOPPING said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.

You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.

Translation please.

LOL

Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 41m
Our #PMQ verdict: A 3-3 draw, as Cameron’s ghost haunts Theresa May, says @MrHarryCole;

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Speedy said:

Hell has frozen over.
And this was just yesterday:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

I suspect the latter. We had months of this sort of excited reportng of something going wrong for the leave camp before the referendum, bless him.

Remember also the Llama Conjecture, "For betting purposes, the consensus of opinion on PB is usually wrong".

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

A good education for me, but not for thee.

Good afternoon, everyone.

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

Couldn't have said it better myself, Andy!

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

Although even the privately educated back grammars according to yougov, only by a little less than the grammar educated, only metropolitan liberals who went to private schools are opposed. Indeed yougov showed even a plurality of those who went to comprehensive and secondary modern schools back their return

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

TSE = Public School Twit

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

Churchill Syndrome!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

And modest, with it.

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them

Yep. Sooner or later it will dawn on the Wets that Theresa is setting out to do to them what Cameron tried to do and failed to do to the right of the party (because he couldnt win a decent majority and he lost the referendum and couldnt deliver the coup de grace).

She knows there is a vast reservoir of ukip voters out there to bring home and the wets have nowhere else to go other than the libdems.

The grammar schools policy costs nothing. The big change was academies and free schools. The new policy will allow some of them to tinker with selection policies, expand and change their name while sending an almighty dog whistle to former voters lodged with the kippers.

By 2020 the new law will be in place but few if any schools will have converted. The clear message is. Only a Tory government can deliver a grammar school in YOUR town. If you vote UKIP you risk letting Labour in who will block this.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

LadyBucket said:

The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.

Corbyn's a far more attractive figure than May. In a fairytale he'd be cast as a wizard while she's a hole-in-one witch.

Never thought of that before:
Wizard = Clever bloke
Witch = Evil woman
Probably a tiny bit unfair.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.

What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

And modest, with it.

I have a lot to be modest about

It's hard to be humble when you're from Yorkshire.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yep.

Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them

Yep. Sooner or later it will dawn on the Wets that Theresa is setting out to do to them what Cameron tried to do and failed to do to the right of the party (because he couldnt win a decent majority and he lost the referendum and couldnt deliver the coup de grace).

She knows there is a vast reservoir of ukip voters out there to bring home and the wets have nowhere else to go other than the libdems.

The grammar schools policy costs nothing. The big change was academies and free schools. The new policy will allow some of them to tinker with selection policies, expand and change their name while sending an almighty dog whistle to former voters lodged with the kippers.

By 2020 the new law will be in place but few if any schools will have converted. The clear message is. Only a Tory government can deliver a grammar school in YOUR town. If you vote UKIP you risk letting Labour in who will block this.

oh a policy for deluded selfish idiots.

Got it.

I can see questions are being to be asked about TRump's health

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/776041069913989120

I wonder how they will decide which school in each town becomes a grammar and which will be turned into secondary moderns? Presumably some sort of drawing lots will take place. Will the thick kids currently attending the winner be allowed to stay, or will they be shunted out?

The single most important thing this government has to do is sort out Brexit. If that goes wrong then the government will be in no position to help those it wants to help.

May's political capital needs to be used sparingly and sensibly on getting that right and getting it through Parliament.

I have no strong feelings on grammar schools. The issues seem to me to be what happens to those children who don't go to such schools and is it really sensible to have yet another educational reorganization.

Also, if any of the stories about the NHS being in crisis are even remotely true, she will need to deal with this. A Tory party obsessing about grammars and overseeing an NHS crisis is not going to be in a good position.

Cameron was brought down by hubris. May and the Tories will be too if they assume complacently that Labour can't win.