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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn has overwhelming victory over TMay at PMQs

Only just got round to watching this week’s PMQs which saw Corbyn absolutely hammer the PM who seemed ill-prepared particularly on her flagship grammar school policy.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    edited September 2016
    1st like Jezza
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    edited September 2016
    2nd like May (unless you have Sandpits eyes)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Other key take away from the LA Times tracker, no change in support amongst women.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hague often bested Blair at PMQs. A fat lot of good it did him.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

    BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

    And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It also looks like the LA Times tracker doesn't ahve a LV screen. Instead it tracks likelihood to vote at the bottom. Which has Democrats more likely to vote than Republicans - which is basically unheard of.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Theresa May = Gordon Brown in kitten heels.

    I think she only looked good because she was up against Mother Superior Andrea Leadsom
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    Yet another new thread...and not about GBBO... ;-)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT was this such a bad idea for the Tories?
    Philip_Thompson said:

    taffys said:

    I suspect many tories will be furious May has given labour a topic they can unite around

    Why, there's nearly four years to go still in this Parliament, plenty more time to have multiple united and divided moments.

    To be Machiavellian for a moment then getting Labour to unite behind Corbyn in the final week of their Leadership campaign is quite an achievement ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Amazing, a person who's only significant contribution over the last 6 years was a disingenuous back stabbing speech supposedly in favor of Remain and who has otherwise has been totally anonymous turns out to be totally anonymous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    edited September 2016
    A group of Black Lives Matter activists including a cousin of Ralph Fiennes, a former Oxford University student and an organic farmer

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3788741/Black-Lives-Matter-activists-admit-charges-City-Airport-protest.html

    Even Sacha Baron Cohen at his best couldn't come up with this...I iz hear for hat Black Lives Matter...but you are white...iz black in my heart and iz come from the ghetto of Oxford.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    edited September 2016
    September 14th 2016 = Cannae
    June 2020 = Zama
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    If she can't defend/sell her flagship policy then she's got major performance issues.

    She should remember the stories are ruthless. An absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa May = Gordon Brown in kitten heels.

    I think she only looked good because she was up against Mother Superior Andrea Leadsom

    Yet it's Theresa wot got her Sainthood!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If she can't defend/sell her flagship policy then she's got major performance issues.

    She should remember the stories are ruthless. An absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.

    Where's yer Dave now? :innocent:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A group of Black Lives Matter activists including a cousin of Ralph Fiennes, a former Oxford University student and an organic farmer

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3788741/Black-Lives-Matter-activists-admit-charges-City-Airport-protest.html

    Even Sacha Baron Cohen at his best couldn't come up with this...I iz hear for hat Black Lives Matter...but you are white...iz black in my heart and iz come from the ghetto of Harrow.

    Yo, Dave! Dey is ignorant people!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Jezza has been playing rope a dope for the past year :p
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Headline on BBC news: Theresa May is under attack.

    Then the Corbyn "united everyone against it" quote.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

    The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Pulpstar said:

    Jezza has been playing rope a dope for the past year :p

    Get the Tories to remove Dave and reveal himself as a political operator of the Mandelson class?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is Juncker really only 61? He looks about 10 years older.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Yet another new thread...and not about GBBO... ;-)

    I've been banging my head on the desk at the importance attached in social media circles to the innuendo of Mel and Sue to British life.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

    BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

    And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

    But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

    And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

    It is just baffling.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    AndyJS said:

    Is Juncker really only 61? He looks about 10 years older.

    Another thing he shares in common with Farage ;)

    Eau de Lush will do that...
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    edited September 2016
    LadyBucket said:

    The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

    The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

    I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    http://news.sky.com/story/libya-and-the-unpicking-of-david-camerons-legacy-10577659

    Libya and the unpicking of David Cameron's legacy

    With his legacy unraveling, just how will history judge David Cameron: not just as the man who failed on the EU but now on Libya?
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    TOPPING said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

    BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

    And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

    But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

    And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

    It is just baffling.
    Some people REALLY love grammar schools.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Have we got so used in the Miliband / Corbyn years to having the PM stomp the LOTO that it comes as a genuine shock when the LOTO has a goodish day? Chill Winstons!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    She's taken the Thatcher comparison to her head, and seems to be acting like she is all-powerful, and that she will do what she wants when she wants. Squandering her honeymoon capital very quickly on Grammar schools - and people/media starting to get restless over Brexit means Brexit. She needs to win her own mandate before it all falls apart. The idea that she can just glide through the biggest shake up in UK politics since the 2nd world war - and sweep an easy 2020 election on the other side, is not going to wash.

    Her game plan seems a bit Hillaryesque - relying on the shitness of her opponent to coast through.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Yet another new thread...and not about GBBO... ;-)

    I've been banging my head on the desk at the importance attached in social media circles to the innuendo of Mel and Sue to British life.
    Its the biggest scandal ever...it was top story on 6pm news last night, more important than Cameron going or boundary review on Newsnight...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    TOPPING said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Tories who deny this are just plain wrong.

    BUT. If she has a particular policy she wants to push through, against the hearts of a decent proportion of her own MPs, she has to do it now when she's too new for internal opposition to coalesce.

    And Corbyn's going to be crap on most other occasions.

    But why on earth does she want to push it through? There really doesn't seem to be a sensible "expert" (!) who agrees with her. Her point about one and a quarter million children in failing schools doesn't seem to be addressed by creaming off the best talent of those schools.

    And neither did she announce a wholesale reorganisation of education, of which grammar schools, together with technical colleges, support for under performing and under resourced schools, and so forth were just one part.

    It is just baffling.
    Some people REALLY love grammar schools.
    Why not? I went to Grammar School too.

    Free at the point of use, unlike Dave and TSE's old schools.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    She’s also given a huge boost to Corbyn who handled himself extremely well.

    Yes, this was Corbyn's best PMQs.

    Yes, it will help cement his leadership of the Labour party.

    Yes, this is a disaster for the Conservatives
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    edited September 2016
    Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them according to yougov. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FPT

    @PlatoSaid

    What pray is wrong with drinking champagne at breakfast? Four glasses may be a little excessive but, perhaps, not if one is thirsty or planning for an idle morning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Opinium polling shows a plurality support grammar schools in every age group:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/14/why-theresa-may-feels-she-can-teach-britain-to-love-grammar-scho/

    "But where will the Prime Minister find the fiercest opposition? The only people who are emphatically against grammar schools turns out to be in this survey those with doctorates. Nearly half of PhDs surveyed (48 per cent) oppose the idea, with only 30 per cent so far in favour."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    CarlottaVance said:

    She’s also given a huge boost to Corbyn who handled himself extremely well.

    Yes, this was Corbyn's best PMQs.

    Yes, it will help cement his leadership of the Labour party.

    Yes, this is a disaster for the Conservatives

    Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    HYUFD said:

    Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020

    Maybe. But it slightly undermines her No.10 lectern speech telling us how her government was going to be one for everyone, not just the children of pointy-elbowed Tory voters.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    The whole point of the grammar schools manoeuvre was to pander to the base. If she can't get support there (which surprises me), it's dead. It certainly doesn't have any merit in educational policy terms.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Alistair said:

    It also looks like the LA Times tracker doesn't ahve a LV screen. Instead it tracks likelihood to vote at the bottom. Which has Democrats more likely to vote than Republicans - which is basically unheard of.

    IIUC it's a single panel, so if their original sample is wonky, which is probably is, all their polls will be wonky. But that means you can see the trends quickly without as much sampling error noise.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,512
    Patrick said:

    Have we got so used in the Miliband / Corbyn years to having the PM stomp the LOTO that it comes as a genuine shock when the LOTO has a goodish day? Chill Winstons!

    It's a hot day and the Corbynites, Remainiacs, and continuity Cameroons are all getting a bit overexcited.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    From another forum I read:

    Media responses to today's PMQs has been overwhelmingly positive for Corbyn, as far as I can see, almost as if the massive media conspiracy to unseat Jeremy Corbyn is suspended whenever he actually does his job competently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    HYUFD said:

    Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them according to May. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020

    It's a terrible idea:

    YouGov revealed last month that nearly six in ten people (62%) would get their child to sit the entrance exam for a grammar school if there was one locally, whilst two thirds (67%) would send their child to a grammar school if they passed the exam.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/09/new-map-shows-where-new-grammar-schools-would-be-m/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    FF43 said:

    The whole point of the grammar schools manoeuvre was to pander to the base. If she can't get support there (which surprises me), it's dead. It certainly doesn't have any merit in educational policy terms.

    There are probably fewer Tories against repeal of the Hunting Act than are against grammar schools.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    LadyBucket said:

    The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

    The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

    I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.
    Corbyn's a far more attractive figure than May. In a fairytale he'd be cast as a wizard while she's a hole-in-one witch.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    Will the last journo out of the Telegraph please remember to turn off the lights...

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/14/boris-hires-telegraphs-david-blair-speechwriter/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    The government need to come up with answers on grammar schools and non grammar schooling fast.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Speedy said:

    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

    Interesting if you read the exchange below the tweet, "disappointed that Corbyn campaign didn't use my full name" says Laura Marcus.

    Marcus...Marcus...got a strange ring to it...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Speedy said:

    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

    The impressive thing about the serious punters on this site isn't so much how insightful they are, although they are, as how quickly they reverse themselves on new evidence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    As one of the political commentators said when Theresa May became leader: the job of Prime Minister is not as easy as David Cameron made it look. The half-baked grammar school announcement - which frankly makes little sense however you look at it - is a significant own-goal for no particular advantage; there's little or no chance of it actually happening, at least in this parliament (and she's said there is not going to be an early election, so neither does it make sense as a marker for the next). It is, furthermore, a waste of valuable political capital; a wasting asset which she should allocate to something more useful, such as making a decision on the new runway.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Speedy said:

    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

    I suspect the latter. We had months of this sort of excited reportng of something going wrong for the leave camp before the referendum, bless him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    edmundintokyo said:

    Speedy said:

    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

    The impressive thing about the serious punters on this site isn't so much how insightful they are, although they are, as how quickly they reverse themselves on new evidence.
    "The first cut is the cheapest"
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As one of the political commentators said when Theresa May became leader: the job of Prime Minister is not as easy as David Cameron made it look. The half-baked grammar school announcement - which frankly makes little sense however you look at it - is a significant own-goal for no particular advantage; there's little or no chance of it actually happening, at least in this parliament (and she's said there is not going to be an early election, so neither does it make sense as a marker for the next). It is, furthermore, a waste of valuable political capital; a wasting asset which she should allocate to something more useful, such as making a decision on the new runway.

    Indeed, if there is political capital available then the third runway is a much better place to spend it. Formulate a real schools reform plan and put it to the people in 2020 as a manifesto commitment. This feels like a waste of time. Whatever people want to say about it being cover for Brexit or red meat for backbenchers the PM is using precious political capital on something that will nevrr make it through both houses in tact.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    It does when you add in a plurality of LDs too. You do not need 51% under FPTP to get a majority, you need 35 to 40%
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    @Pulpstar fpt - I rebacked trump @ ~3.3 when the Clinton/trump book went down to 91%. I also built up an exposure for the first time in months by laying the combined sanders/Biden @~7%.

    Basically I'm treading water right now until the debates - the only position I'm taking is against the field.

    Rough figures;

    Clinton/trump +18.5
    Biden/sanders -2.5
    Others >=+18

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    I don't think PMQs really affects the public (as much as political journos get excited about it) - but it does affect backbench relations...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pong said:

    @Pulpstar fpt - I rebacked trump @ ~3.3 when the Clinton/trump book went down to 91%. I also built up an exposure for the first time in months by laying the combined sanders/Biden @~7%.

    Basically I'm treading water right now until the debates - the only position I'm taking is against the field.

    Rough figures;

    Clinton/trump +18.5
    Biden/sanders -2.5
    Else >=+18

    That's a superb book. Did you get there by backing Trump significantly when he was at very long odds?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.
    Translation please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    MaxPB said:

    The government need to come up with answers on grammar schools and non grammar schooling fast.

    Technical schools as Ken Baker proposed would be a start but plenty of selective areas like Trafford have excellent high schools
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    LOL

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 41m
    Our #PMQ verdict: A 3-3 draw, as Cameron’s ghost haunts Theresa May, says @MrHarryCole;
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543

    Entirely O/T, but I found this article about Islam from Sean Gabb to be interesting.

    https://thelibertarianalliance.com/2016/09/13/against-islamophobia/
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2016
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Speedy said:

    Hell has frozen over.
    And this was just yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/775701180815175681

    OGH is praising Corbyn, or that as an old liberal he hates grammar schools more than Corbyn.

    I suspect the latter. We had months of this sort of excited reportng of something going wrong for the leave camp before the referendum, bless him.
    Remember also the Llama Conjecture, "For betting purposes, the consensus of opinion on PB is usually wrong".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cameron's worst moment in his period as opposition leader was when he disowned grammar schools with the consequent hit in the polls it produced. Of course Corbyn will throw some of his anti grammar school phrases back at May. However nobody votes on one poor question time, 59% of Tory voters back more grammars and 51% of UKIP voters back them. Those are the only stats which matter for May as they are the voters who will give her a majority in 2020

    Maybe. But it slightly undermines her No.10 lectern speech telling us how her government was going to be one for everyone, not just the children of pointy-elbowed Tory voters.
    You can be for everyone and aim for policies in the best interests of everyone even if not supported by everyone
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    A good education for me, but not for thee.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HurstLlama said:

    FPT

    @PlatoSaid

    What pray is wrong with drinking champagne at breakfast? Four glasses may be a little excessive but, perhaps, not if one is thirsty or planning for an idle morning.

    :smiley: *hic*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good afternoon, everyone.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.
    Translation please.
    Vous avez oublié d'ajouter tous les électeurs Dem travail et Lib qui tiennent à eux, aiment juste rester a fait.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    Couldn't have said it better myself, Andy!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    bigjohnowls said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.
    Translation please.
    Vous avez oublié d'ajouter tous les électeurs Dem travail et Lib qui tiennent à eux, aiment juste rester a fait.
    :D
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    Opinium polling shows a plurality support grammar schools in every age group:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/14/why-theresa-may-feels-she-can-teach-britain-to-love-grammar-scho/

    "But where will the Prime Minister find the fiercest opposition? The only people who are emphatically against grammar schools turns out to be in this survey those with doctorates. Nearly half of PhDs surveyed (48 per cent) oppose the idea, with only 30 per cent so far in favour."

    Quite. This is ideology vs average voter territory.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,409
    I agree with many of posters on this thread - the return to educational selection is a potential elephant trap for the Tories and a massive uniting force for Labour. May needs to ensure that the first round of selection occurs after the next election. When the majority of parents see their children shunted off to secondary modern schools, it's going to cause vast resentment that will fester for years. Corbyn could ride the wave of that resentment straight into Downing Street.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    HYUFD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them
    Metropolitan voters on the other hand - those Strongly in Favour of Grammar schools include:

    1. Bexley
    2. Windsor and Maidenhead
    3. Kensington and Chelsea
    4. Croydon
    5. Hammersmith and Fulham
    9. Barnet
    10. Hillingdon
    11. Harrow
    13. Kingston upon Thames
    15. Bromley
    20. Thurrock
    21. Greenwich
    23. Buckinghamshire
    25. Wandsworth
    28. Ealing
    30. Medway
    37. Richmond upon Thames
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,263
    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    Although even the privately educated back grammars according to yougov, only by a little less than the grammar educated, only metropolitan liberals who went to private schools are opposed. Indeed yougov showed even a plurality of those who went to comprehensive and secondary modern schools back their return
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    How will you ever know?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    TSE = Public School Twit :innocent:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Stark_Dawning said:

    I agree with many of posters on this thread - the return to educational selection is a potential elephant trap for the Tories and a massive uniting force for Labour. May needs to ensure that the first round of selection occurs after the next election. When the majority of parents see their children shunted off to secondary modern schools, it's going to cause vast resentment that will fester for years. Corbyn could ride the wave of that resentment straight into Downing Street.

    Corbyn couldn't ride a bike down the street.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983


    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.

    Churchill Syndrome!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    How will you ever know?
    Because lots of non privately educated people have turned out to be successes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    And modest, with it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    And modest, with it.
    I have a lot to be modest about :lol:
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    HYUFD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them
    Yep. Sooner or later it will dawn on the Wets that Theresa is setting out to do to them what Cameron tried to do and failed to do to the right of the party (because he couldnt win a decent majority and he lost the referendum and couldnt deliver the coup de grace).

    She knows there is a vast reservoir of ukip voters out there to bring home and the wets have nowhere else to go other than the libdems.

    The grammar schools policy costs nothing. The big change was academies and free schools. The new policy will allow some of them to tinker with selection policies, expand and change their name while sending an almighty dog whistle to former voters lodged with the kippers.

    By 2020 the new law will be in place but few if any schools will have converted. The clear message is. Only a Tory government can deliver a grammar school in YOUR town. If you vote UKIP you risk letting Labour in who will block this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    bigjohnowls said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    TOPPING said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    59% of Cons voters and 51% of Kippers (51% dear god, not even all Kippers FFS) does not a majority make.
    You forgot to add all the Labour and Libdem voters who are keen on them, just like Remain did.
    Translation please.
    Vous avez oublié d'ajouter tous les électeurs Dem travail et Lib qui tiennent à eux, aiment juste rester a fait.
    大声地笑
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    LadyBucket said:

    The hysteria that surrounds PMQs, especially by commentators is frankly just ridiculous.

    The PM has a million things on her plate and it showed today. She should cut the jokes and just be the serious politician that she is and if it bores the media to death, then so be it.

    I agree to a certain extent. It was the effort to get anti-Jezza jibes in at the end of his questions which I felt was the worst part. Clunky and somewhat inauthentic. Like a poor Dave tribute act.
    Corbyn's a far more attractive figure than May. In a fairytale he'd be cast as a wizard while she's a hole-in-one witch.
    Never thought of that before:
    Wizard = Clever bloke
    Witch = Evil woman
    Probably a tiny bit unfair.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    'Her’s was one of the worst PM performances in years'

    Cameron was always going to be a tough act to follow, he was superb at the dispatch box.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    The privately educated are aghast because they fear their monopoly on the best jobs might come under threat if grammar schools are brought back. Their clever trick of supporting comprehensive schooling in order to seem liberal-minded, while actually entrenching their position, looked like it was going to carry on forever.
    What bollocks. I didn't need a fabulous education to be a sucess in life.
    And modest, with it.
    I have a lot to be modest about :lol:
    It's hard to be humble when you're from Yorkshire.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2016
    There are surely better ways of making life better for capable poor kids than grammars.

    1. compulsory streaming

    2. Stronger protection of those who want to learn from those who don;t. Abolishing this nonsense about the bully or trouble maker as victim.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    edited September 2016
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them
    Yep. Sooner or later it will dawn on the Wets that Theresa is setting out to do to them what Cameron tried to do and failed to do to the right of the party (because he couldnt win a decent majority and he lost the referendum and couldnt deliver the coup de grace).

    She knows there is a vast reservoir of ukip voters out there to bring home and the wets have nowhere else to go other than the libdems.

    The grammar schools policy costs nothing. The big change was academies and free schools. The new policy will allow some of them to tinker with selection policies, expand and change their name while sending an almighty dog whistle to former voters lodged with the kippers.

    By 2020 the new law will be in place but few if any schools will have converted. The clear message is. Only a Tory government can deliver a grammar school in YOUR town. If you vote UKIP you risk letting Labour in who will block this.
    oh a policy for deluded selfish idiots.

    Got it.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Yep.

    Theresa may is under attack. The entire establishment and all the experts are aghast at her plans to bring back Grammar Schools.

    In fact, everyone thinks that she is an idiot to do it except one ill informed group who are probably racists and bigots anyway - most of the voters.

    Exactly right, metropolitan liberals we know dislike grammars, provincial Middle England is rather more enthusiastic for them
    Yep. Sooner or later it will dawn on the Wets that Theresa is setting out to do to them what Cameron tried to do and failed to do to the right of the party (because he couldnt win a decent majority and he lost the referendum and couldnt deliver the coup de grace).

    She knows there is a vast reservoir of ukip voters out there to bring home and the wets have nowhere else to go other than the libdems.

    The grammar schools policy costs nothing. The big change was academies and free schools. The new policy will allow some of them to tinker with selection policies, expand and change their name while sending an almighty dog whistle to former voters lodged with the kippers.

    By 2020 the new law will be in place but few if any schools will have converted. The clear message is. Only a Tory government can deliver a grammar school in YOUR town. If you vote UKIP you risk letting Labour in who will block this.
    Good post.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I can see questions are being to be asked about TRump's health

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/776041069913989120
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As one of the political commentators said when Theresa May became leader: the job of Prime Minister is not as easy as David Cameron made it look. The half-baked grammar school announcement - which frankly makes little sense however you look at it - is a significant own-goal for no particular advantage; there's little or no chance of it actually happening, at least in this parliament (and she's said there is not going to be an early election, so neither does it make sense as a marker for the next). It is, furthermore, a waste of valuable political capital; a wasting asset which she should allocate to something more useful, such as making a decision on the new runway.

    Indeed, if there is political capital available then the third runway is a much better place to spend it. Formulate a real schools reform plan and put it to the people in 2020 as a manifesto commitment. This feels like a waste of time. Whatever people want to say about it being cover for Brexit or red meat for backbenchers the PM is using precious political capital on something that will nevrr make it through both houses in tact.
    The problem re: the third runway is that it probably has to be Heathrow, and that hits the flightpath immediately above TM's own constituency.

    I have to say, as one of her constituents (I live just a mile or so away from her Berkshire pied a terre), she's worrying about it overmuch. We don't really care that much about it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,409
    I wonder how they will decide which school in each town becomes a grammar and which will be turned into secondary moderns? Presumably some sort of drawing lots will take place. Will the thick kids currently attending the winner be allowed to stay, or will they be shunted out?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    edited September 2016
    Alistair said:

    I can see questions are being to be asked about TRump's health

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/776041069913989120

    This whole election is one giant clusterf##k....CBS have been caught editing video of Bill Clinton "misspeaking", rather than just showing the interview and then having clarification / correction.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmECSdH5IS4
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    The single most important thing this government has to do is sort out Brexit. If that goes wrong then the government will be in no position to help those it wants to help.

    May's political capital needs to be used sparingly and sensibly on getting that right and getting it through Parliament.

    I have no strong feelings on grammar schools. The issues seem to me to be what happens to those children who don't go to such schools and is it really sensible to have yet another educational reorganization.

    Also, if any of the stories about the NHS being in crisis are even remotely true, she will need to deal with this. A Tory party obsessing about grammars and overseeing an NHS crisis is not going to be in a good position.

    Cameron was brought down by hubris. May and the Tories will be too if they assume complacently that Labour can't win.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pong said:

    @Pulpstar fpt - I rebacked trump @ ~3.3 when the Clinton/trump book went down to 91%. I also built up an exposure for the first time in months by laying the combined sanders/Biden @~7%.

    Basically I'm treading water right now until the debates - the only position I'm taking is against the field.

    Rough figures;

    Clinton/trump +18.5
    Biden/sanders -2.5
    Else >=+18

    That's a superb book. Did you get there by backing Trump significantly when he was at very long odds?
    Actually, no.

    Most of the book value came from trading the nevertrumps during the priumaries.

    Cruz, Jeb, Romney,Ryan,Bloomberg & Johnson were all good trades for me.

    I balanced the book against trump before the dem convention, which bumped the book value up by ~30% - but the few other times I've taken positions on Clinton/trump, the market has moved against me before I got out.

    I'm not sure I'm very good at reading the tea leaves when it comes to Clinton vs trump.
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