politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and E
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The other interesting thing that appears in that graph is that UKIP's rise at the beginning of 2013 took votes from both Labour and Conservatives, but their [temporary?] subsidence following the local elections has only resulted in the Conservatives increasing their vote share.OblitusSumMe said:
I was [silently] scornful of the poster who suggested that UKIP could be a gateway drug for working class Labour voters to convert to supporting the Tories, but a superficial reading of the opinion poll results does make it look like that has happened to an extent.0 -
Anecdote alert. My neighbours parents are lifelong Labour supporters (they used to run the local Labour club) and are visiting at the moment, the conversation got around to the benfits system and they said they actually supported the Tories over their benefit reforms.currystar said:Does anyone else think its odd that a women from Brazil representing the UN has decided to release a snippet from a report due to be published in 6 months criticizing a democratically elected governments policy of not using taxpayers money to pay for people to have spare rooms in their rented homes. Has the world gone mad, is that what the UN was formed for, to ensure that taxpayers money was spent on providing people with spare rooms. Unreal.
Of course they'll never vote for anyone other than Labour, but it was interesting to see how there is a disconnect between the Guardianistas and old school Labour supporters.0 -
@Currystar
"Does anyone else think its odd that a women from Brazil representing the UN has decided to release a snippet from a report due to be published in 6 months criticizing a democratically elected governments policy of not using taxpayers money to pay for people to have spare rooms in their rented homes."
Not at all. Arrogant (and hypocritical) governments do it all the time. None more so than ours
"the Foreign Office professed itself "deeply concerned" at the fate of Russia's Pussy Riot three"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/21/west-hypocrisy-pussy-riot0 -
As tim is having (yet) another dreadful day, I thought I'd boost his morale with the scandalous treatment by Microsoft of the near perfect Chancellor. Those bolshevik scoundrels have malevolently perverted my Windows 7 Outlook and sent George's latest pearls of wisdom 'Britain is turning the corner' contemptuously into the spam folder.
Shame on me that I haven't rescued it yet.0 -
"Brendan O’Neill, the Editor of Spiked and a shameless libertarian recounts on his Facebook page, “At a conference a couple of years ago, a man tapped me on the back, introduced himself to me, and said he was a fan of my articles. That man is now the prime minister of Australia.”"
http://www.trendingcentral.com/a-more-free-australia/0 -
Avery - excellent table - I fear that bald facts may not convince tim to shut up for long - he still is under the misapprehension that the 2008 crash was due to high house prices - American house prices at that.
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IMO, this ties in with carl's comment. Some people will vote for a party for tribal reasons.CopperSulphate said:
Of course they'll never vote for anyone other than Labour, but it was interesting to see how there is a disconnect between the Guardianistas and old school Labour supporters.0 -
One of H.G. Wells's books I read decades ago---I think it might be The History of Mr. Polly, written about 1910--- had a memorable estate agent put down. Unfortunately I can't remember its proper wording.0
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You gov : Labour leads of 10% +
April 2013 : 8/22
August 2013 : 1/20
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I dunno, you'd have to do a more in-depth analysis to look at how Voting Intention and Leader ratings tend to track compared to the current situation.OblitusSumMe said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summarycarl said:The puzzle continues. Why has Labour's share remained consistent, in majority territory, even as Ed's ratings have bounced around (driven primarily by perceptions amongst his own supporters).
Surely suggests that his "crapness" is "priced in"?
Or, to put it another way, high 30s% of people are fully intending to vote Labour, might even like Ed Miliband themselves, but are worried that he isn't doing enough to convince enough other voters to secure victory.
The ICM wisdom index might give a bit of weight to the idea too, with Labour in the low 30s. Lots of pessimistic, but fully signed up Labour voters out there...
Labour/Miliband had a good 2012, following the Omnishambles budget, but in the first half of this year Labour have declined from ~42% to ~38% and Miliband has declined from just below zero to -36 on net satisfaction.
The evidence does not appear to back your assertion that Labour's share has remained consistent as Miliband's have declined. Zooming out from the poll-to-poll fluctuations to look at the big picture over the course of a year, and there seems a fairly clear correlation in my view.
But certainly there are people who fully intend to vote Labour (or at least anti-Tory), but aren't convinced of Ed's ability to deliver the result they want, regardless of their own opinion of him. There are probably some on here.
If that's widespread, and 35-40% of people are Labour voters busily judging Ed on one key criteria - his ability to get rid of this Government - then his personal ratings won't really influence the result.
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RogerRoger said:@Currystar
"Does anyone else think its odd that a women from Brazil representing the UN has decided to release a snippet from a report due to be published in 6 months criticizing a democratically elected governments policy of not using taxpayers money to pay for people to have spare rooms in their rented homes."
Not at all. Arrogant (and hypocritical) governments do it all the time. None more so than ours
"the Foreign Office professed itself "deeply concerned" at the fate of Russia's Pussy Riot three"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/21/west-hypocrisy-pussy-riot
Have you seen this ranting human rights UN special representative?
She is a former architect. She offered her services to the UN when the demand for bus stops fell off in Sao Paulo.
She wears red spectacles.
Think account managers with an inferiority complex.
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Interesting and lengthy piece on Alonso and Raikkonen here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24048992
Eddie Jordan reckons if Alonso does leave he could head to McLaren (I think Mr. Max mentioned this rumour on the previous thread).0 -
Be careful, tim.tim said:
If you bomb estate agents, the peaceniks will claim you only did it for the oil.
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I am puzzled at what these “satisfaction” surveys are supposed to unearth.
I consider Miliband to be a rare and abject bozo. If I were to be asked on whether I was “satisfied” with him, I would thus have to answer Yes, because he is doing a fine job of minimising his chances of becoming PM.
I’d be equally satisfied with Ed Balls; I was satisfied with Gordon Brown; and so on.
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@Avery
"Think account managers"
...I think we met in Soho last night. She was walking briskly down Frith Street looking for bedrooms. I sent her to Bar Italia telling her she might not find bedrooms but if she wanted Conservative MP's to chastise it was a good starting point.
We were at cross purposes. She said she was looking for Speakers. I asked how much did she want to spend? She slapped me and scuttled off.0 -
The more I think about it, the more I think it won't work. As the article states, Santander is the elephant in the room. If Alonso goes, what will they do? They're already a sponsor of McLaren, although I think the amount is not as much as it was in 2007/8.Would they stay at Ferrari without Alonso?Morris_Dancer said:Interesting and lengthy piece on Alonso and Raikkonen here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24048992
Eddie Jordan reckons if Alonso does leave he could head to McLaren (I think Mr. Max mentioned this rumour on the previous thread).
However, next year is all-change in F1, with some fairly beefy regulation changes. Will drivers prefer to stay where they are as they know the team, and the regulation changes somewhat throws the formbook into the air?
One thing's for sure: if I was McLaren, I would be getting rid of Perez. He's not impressed me much.0 -
Labour seem to have lost the ability to hit 40% in the polls except for very occasionally, despite a big swing from LD to Lab since 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20130 -
Just look how stable the LD numbers are, 10% rock solid for the last 2 years.0
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You seem very knowledgeable on correspondence protocol.tim said:
Oil from fracking estate agents would be plentiful.AveryLP said:
Be careful, tim.tim said:
If you bomb estate agents, the peaceniks will claim you only did it for the oil.
I assume Ban Ki Moon will get Shapps' letter, delay all his meetings about Syria, Google Grant to find out who he is, come across all the "$20,000 in 20 days" scams and get someone to tell the Spiv to go f*ck himself.
I am beginning to think you may be Rachel Reeves's front.
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Mr. Jessop, I'm unsure about Perez. I think he has the pace, but sometimes his decision making is wayward. Since Whitmarsh urged him to 'get his elbows out' he's been driving more robustly, but to the point where it's too near to breaking the rules and clearly unreasonable.
I think you're understating it with 'fairly beefy'. The changes are pretty enormous, from what I gather. Hopefully this'll mean we don't have another Red Bull procession.
Anyway, with Di Resta and Hulkenberg (maybe Maldonado too, he's very faster and seems to have stopped crashing this year) the top teams have good options.0 -
Brazilians are very excitable, Roger.Roger said:@Avery
"Think account managers"
...I think we met in Soho last night. She was walking briskly down Frith Street looking for bedrooms. I sent her to Bar Italia telling her she might not find bedrooms but if she wanted Conservative MP's to chastise it was a good starting point.
We were at cross purposes. She said she was looking for Speakers. I asked how much did she want to spend? She slapped me and scuttled off.
My advice is to stick with the Japanese.
They have a reputation for being passive aggressive. Interaction is far less painful.
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m
Hills have opened a market on when EdM will stand down. 2015 the 4/6 favourite,0 -
I was looking at that earlier on UKPR. labour seem to have drifted from 41-43% to 35-37% in about the last 12 months or so. It sort of makes me doubt Ed can hold his core score in another 18 months time.Andy_JS said:Labour seem to have lost the ability to hit 40% in the polls except for very occasionally, despite a big swing from LD to Lab since 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20130 -
I thought you'd be pleased as you trumpet immigration as the cure to all our woes.tim said:Jesus, I'm sure the PB Tories knew that two thirds of new jobs would go to foreign nationals under the coalition, but nobody expected this
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I wonder if I've been counted as 'claiming benefit' even though I haven't been eligible since my Income-based JSA ran out nearly two years ago.
On a more positive note, I have two interviews within the next week, and will have had three in the last seven weeks - after eleven months on the trot without any.0 -
Not Fathom Consulting again, tim.tim said:Jesus, I'm sure the PB Tories knew that two thirds of new jobs would go to foreign nationals under the coalition, but nobody expected this
@Simon_Nixon: Fathom Consulting: The number of UK real estate jobs is now at a record high – 100,000 more than at 2008 peak. #bubblewatch
This tiny think tank first burst onto the scene in May when they predicted an imminent 20% increase in house prices in response to George's introduction of the Help to Buy scheme.
I suspect the 100,000 more estate agents than at 2008 peak is as reliable an estimate.
Still they do know how to self-advertise.
Just think, with mortgage loans currently running at an annualised rate of 46% of the 2007 peak, perhaps estate agents can be held responsible for the whole of the UK's fall in productivity of 8% since the recession?
That line might even get Fathom a few more column inches.
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The changes are massive. A mate of mine is working all hours Godsend, and he just does the steering wheels. ;-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, I'm unsure about Perez. I think he has the pace, but sometimes his decision making is wayward. Since Whitmarsh urged him to 'get his elbows out' he's been driving more robustly, but to the point where it's too near to breaking the rules and clearly unreasonable.
I think you're understating it with 'fairly beefy'. The changes are pretty enormous, from what I gather. Hopefully this'll mean we don't have another Red Bull procession.
Anyway, with Di Resta and Hulkenberg (maybe Maldonado too, he's very faster and seems to have stopped crashing this year) the top teams have good options.
I must admit to having a problem with Perez. I hear his nickname, Checo, reminds me of this horror:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_-isKzt4O40
