politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat
Comments
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Well quite. I'd argue that Estonia is to the EU what Scotland is to the UK.rcs1000 said:@Cyclefree
As always, thank you for an insightful and interesting post.
One thing I've been thinking more about is what would make my view different. (My view being that the EU is OK, but that it is not right for us.) And I must admit that, if I were living in Talinn, I would be an enthusiastic supporter of EU membership. Why?
Three reasons:
1. I would want to be as tied in with the rest of Western Europe as possible. One can, and I have done, argued that the security blanket of the EU is illusory. But equally, Russia is more dependent on the export of natural gas to the EU, than the other way around. Invading an EU country would no doubt incite incredibly painful economic consequences.
2. Like it or not, having a small and irrelevent currency is not much fun. Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania - should they wish to borrow - have always needed to do it in Deutschmark or Dollars, because even domestic savers would rather own Dollar or Euro assets than local currency ones.
3. My soveriegnty, as a small country surrounded by big ones, is much more constrained than if I were - say - the UK. Being part of something bigger (and full of vaguely friendly and democratic states fortunately lacking in territorial ambitions) is a lot better than being fully independent and being on Russia's doorstep, especially after the "invasion" of the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
Fortunately, I am not living in Talinn. And therefore can put the sovereignty of my nation first. But I quite understand those who come from Vilnius or Talinn having a different view.0 -
Pfft. 100+ are payroll vote, some achievement.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.0 -
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/05/government-struggling-nuneaton-has-not-warmed-jeremy-corbyns-labourPlato_Says said:A particular area of concern is foreign policy. Swing voters generally feel the Iraq War was a profound mistake, and it has badly tarnished their view of Tony Blair. However, they do not see Jeremy Corbyn as an antidote to Labour’s past errors. Instead they see someone incapable of standing up for the country. As one person said ‘imagine him in the White House – he’s like someone who got lost from the tour.’
I feel quite good about the public after reading that. Labour needs to recapture the spirit of '97. However the way that period within the party is now seen (spin, the filthy rich, vanity) means there's no chance of it happening.0 -
Surely it'd be upgrading to 4G these days?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
@Casino_Royale
A brief taster of my rap - about 1'30 in:
https://www.facebook.com/MayfieldFestival/videos/vb.151053735012097/954577044659758/?type=2&theater
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I think - if you don't mind me saying so - that to be a touch naïve.Richard_Nabavi said:
I doubt it very much, assuming a Remain result.Alanbrooke said:The issue won't really be settled though will it ?
When the EU kicks off more integration and stiffs us for more money, the whole thing will kick off again.
Of course, the usual suspects will froth at the mouth whenever there is some minor EU initiative, but if there is a Remain result most people (and the vast bulk of the Conservative Party) will regard the matter as settled, and certainly won't want a rerun of this campaign.
Essentially this is because ever-closer-union is dead in the water, thanks partly to Cameron but also to wider geopolitical forces. The focus within the EU has to move now to sorting out the unfinished business of making the Eurozone work better, which won't involve us getting pulled in to further integration.
Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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http://www.inquirer.net/elections2016 over 50% of the results in now, looks like Mayor Duterte has it in the bag. Its hard to be sure until very late in the count because politicians tend to have very strong regional strongholds and can suddenly put on immense amounts of votes when their area counts and they take 80%+ of the local vote. Turnout is provisionally 72% but I expect that to creep up as the count completes.0
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But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Yep - but not the back-benchers.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.0 -
Superb!!Richard_Nabavi said:@Casino_Royale
A brief taster of my rap - about 1'30 in:
https://www.facebook.com/MayfieldFestival/videos/vb.151053735012097/954577044659758/?type=2&theater0 -
Ah the backbenchers. The nomarks, neverweres, the failures, and the Leavers who had to resign in disgrace like Liam Fox?weejonnie said:
Yep - but not the back-benchers.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.
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Without membership of the single market. That is not the same thing as 'access' as you well know. Your spinning really is very tiresome.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Which bit of the word 'full' do you struggle to understand?runnymede said:
Without membership of the single market. That is not the same thing as 'access' as you well know. Your spinning really is very tiresome.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
Setting up a TheresaMay4Leader website?williamglenn said:
What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
Why did Jones get the heave ho from sky? He always seemed good on there. Same with Tim Marshall guy, who quietly got the boot to.GIN1138 said:
The sharks are circling Cameron and Boy George...Plato_Says said:0 -
Excellent postTonyE said:
Precisely - and that is why the EEA/EFTA route out of the EU is the safe route. You get out of the political arena first, remove yourself from the ECJ, ever closer Union, CAP/CFP, the customs union, foreign affairs, justice and home affairs.Big_G_NorthWales said:I listened to Boris with great interest and he gave a good speech in favour of Brexit and his tone was excellent. I could not argue with most of his points but still cannot understand how we get a trade deal with the EU without contributing and free movement. He is good for leave but I still will vote remain as I believe we need to be at the table
Then you have time to extricate yourself from the EEA, by building a truly level single market at a higher level, by continuing the necessary shift of regulation to global level by the WTO TBT agreement, sector by sector rather than by area (i.e. TTIP) - probably by expanding the role of UNECE.
The EEA is going to become obsolete eventually, but the process that replaces it needs our voice rather than the EU's voice.0 -
You are a true catalyst for party unity!TheScreamingEagles said:
Ah the backbenchers. The nomarks, neverweres, the failures, and the Leavers who had to resign in disgrace like Liam Fox?weejonnie said:
Yep - but not the back-benchers.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.0 -
The elected representatives of the people of Her Majesty's United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland you mean ? The Commons in parliament assembled ? Did someone elect you while we were waiting ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Ah the backbenchers. The nomarks, neverweres, the failures, and the Leavers who had to resign in disgrace like Liam Fox?weejonnie said:
Yep - but not the back-benchers.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.
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There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Only in the sense that you can't stop the world and get off. The EU as it is with the trends and forces as they are is a good enough definition of the status quo for anyone.weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Is Joey Jones still at Sky..haven't seen him for some time..or Tim Marshall0
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You see why I didn't join the diplomatic service, and why I decided not to become an accredited/qualified mediator can you ?Casino_Royale said:
You are a true catalyst for party unity!TheScreamingEagles said:
Ah the backbenchers. The nomarks, neverweres, the failures, and the Leavers who had to resign in disgrace like Liam Fox?weejonnie said:
Yep - but not the back-benchers.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.0 -
Oh but there is, because Richard has assured us today that there is no appetite for further integration in the EU. Isn't it a relief to know that?weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Or for a true echo of Portillo, registering the domain, but never launching the site.TheScreamingEagles said:
Setting up a TheresaMay4Leader website?williamglenn said:
What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
"Anyone" in this context probably doesnt include half the voters in this country +/- 2%williamglenn said:
Only in the sense that you can't stop the world and get off. The EU as it is with the trends and forces as they are is a good enough definition of the status quo for anyone.weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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How strange that Joey Jones's name should crop up when I was only thinking on Friday how much I missed him on SKY, as I was forced to listen to the incoherent waffling of Faisal Islam. Even Adam Boulton cuts him short sometimes. Perhaps I have been a bit slow but he certainly nailed his political colours to the mast during the Mayoral results.
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I was reassuredrunnymede said:
Oh but there is, because Richard has assured us today that there is no appetite for further integration in the EU. Isn't it a relief to know that?weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
Maybe.0 -
That's a much better analogy.williamglenn said:
Or for a true echo of Portillo, registering the domain, but never launching the site.TheScreamingEagles said:
Setting up a TheresaMay4Leader website?williamglenn said:
What's the modern day equivalent? Creating a twitter account?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it's not up there with installing extra phone lines.Casino_Royale said:The only conclusion I can draw from Theresa May's appointment of a spokesman is that she thinks there is a fair chance of a leadership contest this year.
That might not necessarily require a Leave vote. But, if it is Leave, Theresa has laid a fair eurosceptic foundation for a run by her declaration she wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and non well-disguised statement that she would have got a better deal than Cameron, and made Britain a leader in Europe, and therefore should be trusted with the Brexit negotiations. Plus Brexit allows her to be even more hawkish on immigration.
Clever Theresa.0 -
Today's contretemps between Cameron and Boris shows how utterly stupid this referendum is.
We should have had a referendum not on "in" or "out" but on a treaty renegotiation, which would have meant a "no" would not have been to leave the EU but to say "too far, Europe - now give us a good deal to stay in". Blair denied us that on Lisbon and until the next opportunity came along, Cameron should have stuck to his guns.
What we're dealing with now is an utter farce, and I think goes to the crux of why I still can't reconcile in my mind the impossible decision this particular "pro Europe but anti the current set-up" individual has to make on 23rd June. I'm sure millions of others are like me, probably forced to vote Remain reluctantly and with great reservations.0 -
David Miliband here at a very good time re Tooting by-election.Is he about to be parachuted in?0
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He can string some words together well.Plato_Says said:
He'd have been able to do so for Remain if he'd seen that as a better route to becoming PM.0 -
Oh, I wouldn't put forward myself as an authority. Far greater and better-informed men than me, on both sides, agree:runnymede said:Oh but there is, because Richard has assured us today that there is no appetite for further integration in the EU. Isn't it a relief to know that?
Do we feel loyalty to that flag? Do our hearts pitter-patter as we watch it flutter over public buildings? On the contrary. The British share with other EU populations a growing sense of alienation, which is one of the reasons turn-out at European elections continues to decline.
As Jean-Claude Juncker has himself remarked with disapproval, “too many Europeans are returning to a national or regional mindset”.0 -
Are Remain using all their ammunition early because they have a desperate measure up their sleeve. If in early June, Leave are ahead, could the EU make another offer? A little more than the tinsel that Cameron was so jubilant about?
Remain "remain" vulnerable to a terrorist attack or some unforeseen EU silliness (eg Turkey announcing their intention to join). Something may be in reserve if that happens.0 -
The Tory Europhiles thought that only 70 or so MPs would back Leave. Amazing how they are now trying to spin 143 backing Leave as some sort of failure.Indigo said:
Pfft. 100+ are payroll vote, some achievement.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.0 -
Precisely so - the Five Presidents report and the Spinelli 'Fundamental Law' document suggest the future direction of travel.weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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Isn't TSE fond of the Five Star plan?TonyE said:
Precisely so - the Five Presidents report and the Spinelli 'Fundamental Law' document suggest the future direction of travel.weejonnie said:
There is no "Status-Quo option" eitherTonyE said:
There has been no renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:
But a lot of that (especially the first point) is true whether we leave or not. This is not a referendum on how wonderful the status quo is, it's a referendum on whether the status quo+renegotiation is better or worse, on balance, than the alternative, which we now know is a loose deal without full access to the Single Market.Cyclefree said:Further integration of the Eurozone will likely have a considerable impact on the UK and not necessarily benign ones. And geo-political forces (migration? the endless turmoil in the Middle East? etc) are just as likely to push EU countries to more integration rather than less. And the UK's opt-outs, even assuming the effectiveness of the latest "deal", are pretty limited.
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NEW THREAD0
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Yes. Absolutely. If it gets serious, I expect both Cameron and the EU to offer something extra in June.CD13 said:Are Remain using all their ammunition early because they have a desperate measure up their sleeve. If in early June, Leave are ahead, could the EU make another offer? A little more than the tinsel that Cameron was so jubilant about?
Remain "remain" vulnerable to a terrorist attack or some unforeseen EU silliness (eg Turkey announcing their intention to join). Something may be in reserve if that happens.
It might be a referendum on Turkish membership of the EU by the former, and perhaps some further justice, migration concessions by the latter, possibly to be formalised in some future treaty at a future date.
But it might also be too little too late.0 -
That does appeal to my thinking too.runnymede said:
Excellent postTonyE said:
Precisely - and that is why the EEA/EFTA route out of the EU is the safe route. You get out of the political arena first, remove yourself from the ECJ, ever closer Union, CAP/CFP, the customs union, foreign affairs, justice and home affairs.Big_G_NorthWales said:I listened to Boris with great interest and he gave a good speech in favour of Brexit and his tone was excellent. I could not argue with most of his points but still cannot understand how we get a trade deal with the EU without contributing and free movement. He is good for leave but I still will vote remain as I believe we need to be at the table
Then you have time to extricate yourself from the EEA, by building a truly level single market at a higher level, by continuing the necessary shift of regulation to global level by the WTO TBT agreement, sector by sector rather than by area (i.e. TTIP) - probably by expanding the role of UNECE.
The EEA is going to become obsolete eventually, but the process that replaces it needs our voice rather than the EU's voice.
But is that on offer? How do we know the Government or whichever Government replaces it will go down that path? Would it be achievable anyway?
All reasons why the safe route really feels like it has to be to stay IN the EU for the time being until a better deal or a clear exit path emerges.
It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....0 -
Neither are still at SKY, although Tim Marshall makes the odd appearance. Both a big loss IMO.richardDodd said:Is Joey Jones still at Sky..haven't seen him for some time..or Tim Marshall
TMarshall sometimes does a phone-in programme on LBC and is always very interesting. He doesn't seem to go for the 'easy' subjects like the other commentators do.
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I see that undecided voters proclaim Boris to be more trustworthy than Dave in the Yougov EU poll. Dave is on minus 35, while Boris is minus 27.
The Scottish Indy repercussion from the vote is deemed largely irrelevant.0 -
You've answered your own question surely.Bob__Sykes said:Today's contretemps between Cameron and Boris shows how utterly stupid this referendum is.
We should have had a referendum not on "in" or "out" but on a treaty renegotiation, which would have meant a "no" would not have been to leave the EU but to say "too far, Europe - now give us a good deal to stay in". Blair denied us that on Lisbon and until the next opportunity came along, Cameron should have stuck to his guns.
What we're dealing with now is an utter farce, and I think goes to the crux of why I still can't reconcile in my mind the impossible decision this particular "pro Europe but anti the current set-up" individual has to make on 23rd June. I'm sure millions of others are like me, probably forced to vote Remain reluctantly and with great reservations.
We're having this referendum and not one on a treaty precisely BECAUSE a decisive number of people in the middle of the opinion spectrum will be forced to vote remain just as you say.
But today's panic from Cameron suggests it's closer than he bargained for. lol0 -
Not relevant. Ministers can vote Brexit.Indigo said:
Pfft. 100+ are payroll vote, some achievement.TheScreamingEagles said:
So Dave represents a majority of Tory MPs.Casino_Royale said:Guido Fawkes count - now 143 Tory MPs for Brexit, 170 for Remain and 17 still on the fence:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/htmlview
Superb.
More relevant might be the fear of opposing Cameron but that's likely to be just as effective a motivation for the ambitious on the backbenches as for those already in office. But with Cameron almost certain to go within the next three years, fear of retribution from No 10 is not what it once was - particularly if the next leader is a Leaver.0 -
Brent Council leader resigns from post on London Councils after comparing Israel to Islamic State https://t.co/ftc5zrGauk0
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Its a reasonable analogy, but the problem is parts of our government , and most of the EU hierarchy have a vested interest in keeping that storm, or at least the appearance of that storm going indefinitely for exactly the reasons you cite. Meanwhile EU integration slowly moves along making it harder and more costly to extricate ourselves, so that eventually it doesnt matter how insulting and undemocratic they are, how badly they take the p*ss out of our nationhood, because the cost of leaving will just be too great, and then we are lost. Its just the Monet Plan written large, the EU has had the same plan since it's inception.Bob__Sykes said:It's like being trapped in a remote cottage out in the wilds in a blizzard. You want to get out of there, of course, but it's a big and possibly tragic step to make a break for it whilst the storm continues and no clear path is visible, you'd tend to want to stay there in the hope a clearer option emerges....
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Would he want to fight a marginal with Corbyn as leader? It IS Wandsworth though. Something of a second home for new Labour luvvies tired of Islington and I'm sure they'll have been on to him about it.volcanopete said:David Miliband here at a very good time re Tooting by-election.Is he about to be parachuted in?
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