politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI: The demographic group which has most moved away

TCPoliticalBetting said:

They are actually saying that Labour needs a credible platform on the economy and welfare far sooner than "by the time of the election". That without it now, Labour are just allowing the Conservatives to pile up a picture of Labour as the lazy man on the sofa.

MikeSmithson said:

They are totally wrong. Remember the big Dave/Osbo mistake in the pre-GE2010 period was getting too specific about policy.

It is a bad strategy for oppositions to go into policy detail two years beforehand though you can undestand why Tories would like them to.

tim said:

Charles' Money Saving Tips.

MikeSmithson said:

They are totally wrong. Remember the big Dave/Osbo mistake in the pre-GE2010 period was getting too specific about policy.
It is a bad strategy for oppositions to go into policy detail two years beforehand though you can undestand why Tories would like them to.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent piece, Mike.

I suspect this group may well be voting heavily UKIP in future.

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

OK, sorry. I agree with that. By the time the election comes Labour needs to have a credible alternative to what the Tories are proposing.

They are actually saying that Labour needs a credible platform on the economy and welfare far sooner than "by the time of the election". That without it now, Labour are just allowing the Conservatives to pile up a picture of Labour as the lazy man on the sofa.

It is an interesting game to watch being played out. These Labour supporters many of whom are a generation older than Ed Milliband, are giving advice from their experience.

They are totally wrong. Remember the big Dave/Osbo mistake in the pre-GE2010 period was getting too specific about policy.

It is a bad strategy for oppositions to go into policy detail two years beforehand though you can undestand why Tories would like them to.

Charles said:

Can someone actually explain the maths of that to me? It strikes me as implausible.

Charles said:

Carola said:

Labour poster. Bad choice of photo I think. What with the background colour and cheery expression it looks like a Tory poster until you read it.

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/320473445299286017/photo/1

Can someone actually explain the maths of that to me? It strikes me as implausible.

AndyJS said:

@AndreaParma_82

Thanks for that. I might just check with someone like David Boothroyd on VoteUK to see what he says. Sometimes the rule book says one thing and reality is different.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Poor effort by UKIP in Warwickshire. Just 22 candidates out of 62. Same as TUSC. On another place, they say they are not very organized there, so their lack of candidates should not be surprising.

Scott_P said:

@clarebalding
Here goes then: 1. Rare Bob, 2. Teatforthree, 3. Seabass, 4. Chicago Grey. #GrandNational

SouthamObserver said:

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Poor effort by UKIP in Warwickshire. Just 22 candidates out of 62. Same as TUSC. On another place, they say they are not very organized there, so their lack of candidates should not be surprising.

It's a bit strange because the demographics of most of Warwickshire are pretty encouraging for UKIP, especially somewhere like Nuneaton and Bedworth, ie. a lot of voters who are neither well-off nor poor.

I have seen quite a few UKIP posters around, so it is very strange they are not backing these up with candidates.

scampi said:

I'm baffled and bemused why we have no thread on Clegg on the piste:)

Scott_P said:

@williamhillNews: Happy Grand National Day! We have gone 12/1 the field. Whoever you want, we're at least 12/1. Seabass 12/1, On His Own 12/1 #GrandNational

HurstLlama said:

@malcolmg

"... 500 jobs lost when trident gets booted out"

500 jobs? Where on earth did you get that figure from, Mr. G.. There are a lot more than 500 locally employed civvies at the submarine base.

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

steve_garner said:

Except for public sector workers have low paid women been hit by austerity?

If you are talking about directly in terms of take home salary it depends on what they earn. But they will have been affected by things such as the changes to housing benefit payments, tax credit reductions, the VAT rise, the employee NI rise, reductions in council services, increases in the cost of public transport and so on. All this against a background of low or non-existent salary increases and a general rise in the cost of living.

They need to start doing the right thing and working harder. Then the Tories will look after them.

The outrage is easy, but doesn't solve the problem. Oddly in this recession jobs are being created. So rather than rail against benefit changes, shouldn't the question be why aren't locals more involved in the workforce ? If a bulgarian turned up in Rochdale in January would he be more likely to find a job than a local on welfare who speaks the lingo and knows the area ?

Exactly Alan, I cannot work out how over 2 million foreigners can come here and walk into all the jobs whilst we have millions supposedly desperate to work. I went to Edinburgh zoo last week and in the restaurant there was not one local person working , all were eastern european. Kind of shows up what the problem is in this country, lots of whinging by lazy people who would rather take a handout than get out their beds and go and get a job. Happy to sponge off other people and not even ashamed to do it.

HurstLlama said:

All this talk up-thread about how difficult it is to live on a small fixed budget rather ignores a very large group of people who have to do just that. There are a great many families with one or both parents in full time jobs who, after they have paid the bills, have to watch every penny, for whom saving is an impossibility and who are equally vulnerable to a sudden emergency like a boiler packing-up.

Yet I don't see posts let alone newspaper articles, bewailing the fate of that group and how tough life is for them. However, we may hear echoes of their frustration in the opinion polls that suggest a growing number are less sympathetic for those living entirely on benefits.

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

steve_garner said:

Except for public sector workers have low paid women been hit by austerity?

If you are talking about directly in terms of take home salary it depends on what they earn. But they will have been affected by things such as the changes to housing benefit payments, tax credit reductions, the VAT rise, the employee NI rise, reductions in council services, increases in the cost of public transport and so on. All this against a background of low or non-existent salary increases and a general rise in the cost of living.

They need to start doing the right thing and working harder. Then the Tories will look after them.

The outrage is easy, but doesn't solve the problem. Oddly in this recession jobs are being created. So rather than rail against benefit changes, shouldn't the question be why aren't locals more involved in the workforce ? If a bulgarian turned up in Rochdale in January would he be more likely to find a job than a local on welfare who speaks the lingo and knows the area ?

Exactly Alan, I cannot work out how over 2 million foreigners can come here and walk into all the jobs whilst we have millions supposedly desperate to work. I went to Edinburgh zoo last week and in the restaurant there was not one local person working , all were eastern european. Kind of shows up what the problem is in this country, lots of whinging by lazy people who would rather take a handout than get out their beds and go and get a job. Happy to sponge off other people and not even ashamed to do it.

Same down here malc, I took the Mrs to the Cotswolds this week and loads of the staff in shops and restaurants were E Europeans. It really left me scratching my head as to why our own lot don't, or won't, work. Nothing against the E Europeans but why are locals not filling these jobs or being made to fill them ? Something stinks.

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

steve_garner said:

Except for public sector workers have low paid women been hit by austerity?

If you are talking about directly in terms of take home salary it depends on what they earn. But they will have been affected by things such as the changes to housing benefit payments, tax credit reductions, the VAT rise, the employee NI rise, reductions in council services, increases in the cost of public transport and so on. All this against a background of low or non-existent salary increases and a general rise in the cost of living.

They need to start doing the right thing and working harder. Then the Tories will look after them.

The outrage is easy, but doesn't solve the problem. Oddly in this recession jobs are being created. So rather than rail against benefit changes, shouldn't the question be why aren't locals more involved in the workforce ? If a bulgarian turned up in Rochdale in January would he be more likely to find a job than a local on welfare who speaks the lingo and knows the area ?

Exactly Alan, I cannot work out how over 2 million foreigners can come here and walk into all the jobs whilst we have millions supposedly desperate to work. I went to Edinburgh zoo last week and in the restaurant there was not one local person working , all were eastern european. Kind of shows up what the problem is in this country, lots of whinging by lazy people who would rather take a handout than get out their beds and go and get a job. Happy to sponge off other people and not even ashamed to do it.

Same down here malc, I took the Mrs to the Cotswolds this week and loads of the staff in shops and restaurants were E Europeans. It really left me scratching my head as to why our own lot don't, or won't, work. Nothing against the E Europeans but why are locals not filling these jobs or being made to fill them ? Something stinks.

It is unbelievable Alan especially when you see the work ethic of the people as well, friendly , polite and doing the job well.
welfare state has got us to the same position as Africa is re aid, kills peoples self respect and ambition to get up and do something for themselves.

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@williamhillNews: Happy Grand National Day! We have gone 12/1 the field. Whoever you want, we're at least 12/1. Seabass 12/1, On His Own 12/1 #GrandNational

I have gone for :
On His Own
Join Together
Imperial Commander.

Peter_the_Punter said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@williamhillNews: Happy Grand National Day! We have gone 12/1 the field. Whoever you want, we're at least 12/1. Seabass 12/1, On His Own 12/1 #GrandNational

I have gone for :
On His Own
Join Together
Imperial Commander.

Not sure about Imperial Commander, Malc, but like the other two.

My non-National selections for the day will follow very soon.

HurstLlama said:

500 jobs? Where on earth did you get that figure from, Mr. G..

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Brooke, that's true, and not just through welfare.

People's strange fondness for the cult of celebrity means they want instant and vacuous success. I don't want to sound like one of the Four Yorkshiremen, but when I were a lad kids still aspired to be astronauts, scientists and firemen. Now footballers and celebrities seem the order of the day.

People love the fruits of labour, but can't stand the work. It's the mentality of fifth century Rome. Or France.

Peter_2 said:

HurstLlama said:

All this talk up-thread about how difficult it is to live on a small fixed budget rather ignores a very large group of people who have to do just that. There are a great many families with one or both parents in full time jobs who, after they have paid the bills, have to watch every penny, for whom saving is an impossibility and who are equally vulnerable to a sudden emergency like a boiler packing-up.

Yet I don't see posts let alone newspaper articles, bewailing the fate of that group and how tough life is for them. However, we may hear echoes of their frustration in the opinion polls that suggest a growing number are less sympathetic for those living entirely on benefits.

The people Labour don't give a sh!t about? That's why they don't feature in the fair and balanced BBC.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

All this talk up-thread about how difficult it is to live on a small fixed budget rather ignores a very large group of people who have to do just that. There are a great many families with one or both parents in full time jobs who, after they have paid the bills, have to watch every penny, for whom saving is an impossibility and who are equally vulnerable to a sudden emergency like a boiler packing-up.

Yet I don't see posts let alone newspaper articles, bewailing the fate of that group and how tough life is for them. However, we may hear echoes of their frustration in the opinion polls that suggest a growing number are less sympathetic for those living entirely on benefits.

You can't have been concentrating. Scaling back on housing benefit, reducing tax credits, freezing child benefit payments, cutting services and so on all affect these familes.

For me it is the central challenge facing all political parties: how do you sustain a society in which only the elite get richer and more prosperous, while the bottom 50% see their living standards perpetually reduced and the other 40% see theirs stagnate. No-one seems to be addressing this, let alone providing any answers.

Once you have abolished welfare, or severely limtred it - what then?

That depends on what you see as the role of welfare. If welfare is a temporary measure, then you get people back in to work and they earn a living and move on. If welfare is seen as a way of life everyone's screwed.

I agree, but I do not see any evidennce that welfare is a lifestyle choice for most of those who have to claim it. As we all know the biggest single item of welfare expenditure is pensions. Then there are those people who are restricted in the work they can do. Take your hotel and restaurant example: if you have a medical condition that precludes you from being on your feet for a lot of the time then you are going to find it tricky waiting at table or cleaning rooms, you'll need a different kind of job. Those do not just magically appear. Then if you are a hotel or restaurant you may well want to recruit people with some experience instead of someone just out of school who has never worked before, let alone worked at a reception desk or served meals to paying customers. And, as we have seen many times, quite a few employers actively by-pass the local jobs market to recruit overseas, so people do not know that jobs are available in the first place. Like it or not, a 35 year old bloke with a family to support is going to need a wage that a lot of employers are not willing to pay. Of course, you can take away his benefits and force him into a job that will not allow him to feed and house his family adequately, but that not only ends up ruining their lives, but also ends up costing taxpayers more - directly or indirectly - further down the line.

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

All this talk up-thread about how difficult it is to live on a small fixed budget rather ignores a very large group of people who have to do just that. There are a great many families with one or both parents in full time jobs who, after they have paid the bills, have to watch every penny, for whom saving is an impossibility and who are equally vulnerable to a sudden emergency like a boiler packing-up.

Yet I don't see posts let alone newspaper articles, bewailing the fate of that group and how tough life is for them. However, we may hear echoes of their frustration in the opinion polls that suggest a growing number are less sympathetic for those living entirely on benefits.

You can't have been concentrating. Scaling back on housing benefit, reducing tax credits, freezing child benefit payments, cutting services and so on all affect these familes.

For me it is the central challenge facing all political parties: how do you sustain a society in which only the elite get richer and more prosperous, while the bottom 50% see their living standards perpetually reduced and the other 40% see theirs stagnate. No-one seems to be addressing this, let alone providing any answers.

Once you have abolished welfare, or severely limtred it - what then?

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

@AlanBrooke

Talking to someone from down near Chichester where there are lots of labour-intensive market garden businesses, one issue is that the "locals" are now barred from employment because they don 't speak Polish. The gangers, who the farmers use to provide labour, are now almost exclusively from the large and growing Polish community in Bognor-Regis and they won't hire anyone from outside their own community. So no matter how hard the locals may want to work they can't get a look in. I am given to understand a similar situation has developed in Lincolnshire.

There is also an issue with reverse discrimination. So many articles have appeared that the young people of England are lazy and won't work hard it has become a "truth" and employers prefer to take on E. Europeans regardless of the talents and capacity for work the English youngster applying for a job has.

I am not saying that there is not a problem with some English youth being idle and feckless, simply that it is not as clear cut as some try to portray.

I don't think this is just an isolated problem I believe it's pretty similar in Lincolnshire and elsewhere. Usually this is the kind of issue lefties like to claim is Daily Mail hype and racism, but I've seen enough examples myself in industry where employers are dioscriminating against their own people. Basically such employers should be fined out of business imo but that's not a popular view I accept.

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

@AlanBrooke

Talking to someone from down near Chichester where there are lots of labour-intensive market garden businesses, one issue is that the "locals" are now barred from employment because they don 't speak Polish. The gangers, who the farmers use to provide labour, are now almost exclusively from the large and growing Polish community in Bognor-Regis and they won't hire anyone from outside their own community. So no matter how hard the locals may want to work they can't get a look in. I am given to understand a similar situation has developed in Lincolnshire.

There is also an issue with reverse discrimination. So many articles have appeared that the young people of England are lazy and won't work hard it has become a "truth" and employers prefer to take on E. Europeans regardless of the talents and capacity for work the English youngster applying for a job has.

I am not saying that there is not a problem with some English youth being idle and feckless, simply that it is not as clear cut as some try to portray.

I don't think this is just an isolated problem I believe it's pretty similar in Lincolnshire and elsewhere. Usually this is the kind of issue lefties like to claim is Daily Mail hype and racism, but I've seen enough examples myself in industry where employers are dioscriminating against their own people. Basically such employers should be fined out of business imo but that's not a popular view I accept.

It definitely isn't hype, we even have our own example on this site. Max, gent of this parish, confessed a couple of years back on here that his company run a racist recruitment policy -discriminating against British graduates.

How to solve the problem I am not sure, but getting out of the EU would seem to be a prerequisite.

CarlottaVance said:

@SouthamObserver - in fairness, Cameron does talk about the global race - whether the government actually has a coherent plan to tackle the challenges is a lot less clear - but it's behind the worries about global education ranking for example.