As I've stated at least three times on PB, I think Labour needs to split
What odds can you get for the 2020 election leading to a grand coalition between the rump Cameroon and Blairite parties?
Not impossible, with UKIP and the Tory right joining up to their right and Corbynite Labour and the Greens and SNP to their left. The LDs would also likely split with Orange Bookers joining the Cameroon/Blairites. Under FPTP though it remains unlikely, it would take PR to really be a possibility
Realistically 45% of the Con MPs are for Out and I would put the Cameron/Osborne europhiles at 20% to 25% and the other 35% to 30% are party loyalists. Therefore the Cameron/Osborne europhiles are too small to form a party of Govt with Blairites that are also probably circa 20%. The rest of Labour MPs are probably 15% hard left and 65% soft left that are against Blair and against Corbyn.
If the polls are right Labour will perform badly in Scotland, averagely in Wales and the locals and Khan will win in London. Surely that is ideal for Conservatives. London should be enough to entrench Corbyn further. Our slogan should be DUCE. Don't Unseat Corbyn Early. The material available to the Conservatives already should be enough to sink him without trace at a later national election. For years he has been attending rallies with Hamas representatives (just read their Charter!) and has appeared on Press TV of Iran. Goodness knows what he has said about this country and the interests of his friends. So he is a massive asset. He needs time and space to carry on leading Labour in his way. Carry on Corbyn.
Ken still digging for all he's worth. Seems that it is ok to make up history as Netanyahu does the same thing.
Pleading Hitler and Netanyahu in his defense?
Has he reached Australia yet?
They sent him back....
Did they really or are you joking? Good for them if they did but would have expected more publicity to that.
Its a joke...the joke was the hole he dug the other was so deep he reached Australia...and now he pops up again on Saturday on yet another media outing...hence the "they sent him back".
As I've stated at least three times on PB, I think Labour needs to split
What odds can you get for the 2020 election leading to a grand coalition between the rump Cameroon and Blairite parties?
Not impossible, with UKIP and the Tory right joining up to their right and Corbynite Labour and the Greens and SNP to their left. The LDs would also likely split with Orange Bookers joining the Cameroon/Blairites. Under FPTP though it remains unlikely, it would take PR to really be a possibility
With FPTP it would have some interesting possibilities. A Blaroon minority government seeking support from the lefties and the righties on a case by case basis and trying to stay in government by riding two horses at once.
As I've stated at least three times on PB, I think Labour needs to split
What odds can you get for the 2020 election leading to a grand coalition between the rump Cameroon and Blairite parties?
Not impossible, with UKIP and the Tory right joining up to their right and Corbynite Labour and the Greens and SNP to their left. The LDs would also likely split with Orange Bookers joining the Cameroon/Blairites. Under FPTP though it remains unlikely, it would take PR to really be a possibility
Realistically 45% of the Con MPs are for Out and I would put the Cameron/Osborne europhiles at 20% to 25% and the other 35% to 30% are party loyalists. Therefore the Cameron/Osborne europhiles are too small to form a party of Govt with Blairites that are also probably circa 20%. The rest of Labour MPs are probably 15% hard left and 65% soft left that are against Blair and against Corbyn.
You are talking under FPTP, which as I said would never see such a group formed as the Labour v Tory monopoly is the only way to win most seats. However under PR a Cameroon/Blairite/Orange Book party could easily win 30-40% of the vote and seats
If the polls are right Labour will perform badly in Scotland, averagely in Wales and the locals and Khan will win in London. Surely that is ideal for Conservatives. London should be enough to entrench Corbyn further. Our slogan should be DUCE. Don't Unseat Corbyn Early. The material available to the Conservatives already should be enough to sink him without trace at a later national election. For years he has been attending rallies with Hamas representatives (just read their Charter!) and has appeared on Press TV of Iran. Goodness knows what he has said about this country and the interests of his friends. So he is a massive asset. He needs time and space to carry on leading Labour in his way. Carry on Corbyn.
I agree. The last thing the Tories want is for Labour to come to their senses and get rid of Corbyn. They might just stumble across someone who is remotely electable, though when you peruse the Labour benches, that is also looking increasingly unlikely.
The only mercy I can offer Labour at the moment is that this car crash isn't being played out the week before a general election.
Labour members made their choice and are not going to pick an electable leader until after the 2020 election, assuming they fail to win. The only real alternative to Corbyn at the moment is McDonnell. It was the same for the Tories when members picked IDS, the only realistic alternative before the 2005 election was Michael Howard, not a potential election winner
Anyone else hopping mad about BT's price rise? Second time in a year I think.
Never happened when they were a public sector utility.
No, but you couldn't get a telephone line quickly , probably a years' wait, repairs took forever and call costs were stratospheric, especially long distance and overseas calls.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
McMao is a lot more worrying than Jahadi Jez. Jez is mostly an old fool with a limited world view that is stuck in the 70's and refuses to adjust and thus is unelectable. McMao has some even worse views but is much more savvy and flexible when it comes to what he is willing to say.
Ken still digging for all he's worth. Seems that it is ok to make up history as Netanyahu does the same thing.
Pleading Hitler and Netanyahu in his defense?
Has he reached Australia yet?
They sent him back....
Did they really or are you joking? Good for them if they did but would have expected more publicity to that.
Its a joke...the joke was the hole he dug the other was so deep he reached Australia...and now he pops up again on Saturday on yet another media outing...hence the "they sent him back".
The antipode of London is near South Island, New Zealand...
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
McMao is a lot more worrying than Jahadi Jez. Jez is mostly an old fool with a limited world view that is stuck in the 70's and refuses to adjust and thus is unelectable. McMao has some even worse views but is much more savvy and flexible when it comes to what he is willing to say.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
McMao is a lot more worrying than Jahadi Jez. Jez is mostly an old fool with a limited world view that is stuck in the 70's and refuses to adjust and thus is unelectable. McMao has some even worse views but is much more savvy and flexible when it comes to what he is willing to say.
Indeed, I think John Mcdonnell could be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS, from the same wing of the party, both Shadow Chancellor but both more media savvy, intelligent and heavy hitting. Howard did not win but he did ensure the Tories made modest progress in 2005 to set up their future recovery
As I've stated at least three times on PB, I think Labour needs to split
What odds can you get for the 2020 election leading to a grand coalition between the rump Cameroon and Blairite parties?
Not impossible, with UKIP and the Tory right joining up to their right and Corbynite Labour and the Greens and SNP to their left. The LDs would also likely split with Orange Bookers joining the Cameroon/Blairites. Under FPTP though it remains unlikely, it would take PR to really be a possibility
With FPTP it would have some interesting possibilities. A Blaroon minority government seeking support from the lefties and the righties on a case by case basis and trying to stay in government by riding two horses at once.
Indeed but that would also be likely under PR given a majority government would be a much rarer occurrence
I'm looking at all this with Corbyn and Livingstone, and the conduct of the Government in the EU Referendum, and the general unpopularity of politicians - and it does all seem to be coinciding to create a perfect storm.
The ground is fertile for a proper anti establishment movement, even a 'spoil your paper' group at the next general election.
Even if we don't get that, I rather suspect that turnout will be even lower than has been the recent norm - leaving any government with very limited legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
On my recent train safari across Eastern Europe (taking in Auschwitz amonst other points of interest it was hard not to be aware of the ghosts of the old Jewish culture of Europe.
Particularly interesting was a conversation that I had with a guide at the Doheny st synagogue in Budapest. It was really quite a remarkeable structure and he had grown tired of showing people around whose interest was in the holocaust. We had quite a long discussion on how assimillated yet distinct the Jews of Budapest had been in respect of Hungarian life and culture. It sparked me to read this sad yet engaging recent book on European Jewry:
I quite recommend it. As well as its interest historically, it has many themes which carry over to modern Europe, and to multiculturalism in particular.
There was an excellent Storyville on BBC4 a few weeks ago featuring Phillipe Sands interviewing the 2 sons of high ranking Nazis, and accompanying them of a tour of their fathers, er, achievements. The differing attitudes of the sons towards their fathers was fascinating.
The visit to Lviv in the Ukraine (where numerous members of Sands' family were exterminated, and the extermination overseen by the father of one of the accompanying sons) was very powerful. Another visit to a commemoration of Ukranian 'patriots' with attendees prancing about in SS uniforms was also a bit of an eye opener; it suggests that it's not only the ghosts of an exterminated Jewish culture that haunt Eastern Europe, but also that of their exterminators.
Absolutely the best book on that marvellous culture of Jewish middle Europe, pre-Shoah, is this: Memoirs of an Anti-Semite (the title is ironic, in the main)
I was lucky enough to meet the author, Gregor von Rezzori, at a party back in the 1990s.
What a mensch. Sparkling with wit. Total dude. Sadly gone now, just like the culture he so brilliantly recreated. I cannot recommend a book more highly. One of the greatest "memoirs" of all time (though some might call it a novel).
Yep, it's a great book (my paperback copy fell apart unfortunately). Envious that you met him.
I may be teaching my granny to suck eggs, but have you read Malaparte? I'm doing his Kaputt at the moment, hard to decide whether it's 'important' or just interesting. In any case he's fascinating for anyone interested in the gamier side of Italian/European Fascist politics & history.
'So on reflection I can hardly deny that forgiveness to Shah. And her initial apology (foolishly redacted) was very eloquent and thoughtful'
I'm not as forgiving as you SeanT. Anyone can be eloquent in apology after they have been caught. Let's be honest here, she didn't say anything that none of her Muslim constituents wouldn't agree whole heartedly with, and as we have discovered, large swathes of the hard Left also hold her views. She said what she said, she meant it, she got exposed, and she issued a grovelling apology to save her own skin. Cue apologists like Alan Johnson saying she has come out of this episode with 'credit'. If that is what he and others truly believe, then Labour are in even bigger trouble than we first thought.
I cannot help but think that if this had been a white Tory male, the shit storm would have been ten times worse. I've no doubt whatsoever that Labour would have filed a police complaint on grounds of inciting racial hatred, maybe rightly so. Why has no such complaint been made against her? There would have been hundreds of demonstrators outside of said MPs home, demanding blood, possibly literally.
Livingstone has conveniently taken the spotlight away from Shah, which is the real tragedy here, because her views are widely espoused by the community she represents, and this could have been a golden opportunity to tackle the Islamic extremism that is flourishing in this country.
Anyone else hopping mad about BT's price rise? Second time in a year I think.
Never happened when they were a public sector utility.
No, but you couldn't get a telephone line quickly , probably a years' wait, repairs took forever and call costs were stratospheric, especially long distance and overseas calls.
The GPO was shite.
I'm quite happy with BTs price hike as it confirmed that I made the right move when I changed to thephone.coop for my phone and broadband a few months ago.
If the polls are right Labour will perform badly in Scotland, averagely in Wales and the locals and Khan will win in London. Surely that is ideal for Conservatives. London should be enough to entrench Corbyn further. Our slogan should be DUCE. Don't Unseat Corbyn Early. The material available to the Conservatives already should be enough to sink him without trace at a later national election. For years he has been attending rallies with Hamas representatives (just read their Charter!) and has appeared on Press TV of Iran. Goodness knows what he has said about this country and the interests of his friends. So he is a massive asset. He needs time and space to carry on leading Labour in his way. Carry on Corbyn.
I recognise the logic in this, and think there can be some fun to be had with 'DUCE' but I do see two possible problems with it.
1) New leaders normally get a 'honeymoon bounce' if we get a new LOTO in 2019 that is even just OK then the honeymoon bounce could be enough to have a socialist in 10 downing street.
2) This is a terrifying thought, but what if a scandal or two emerge just before the 2020 election, and its enough to really move swing voters, sex or money normally does it, e.g. the PM has been involved in sex party's with Dead Farm Animals, or has is own money in off shore tax havens.
O, wait, on second thoughts that second point is not valid, but the first one still is.
I'm looking at all this with Corbyn and Livingstone, and the conduct of the Government in the EU Referendum, and the general unpopularity of politicians - and it does all seem to be coinciding to create a perfect storm.
The ground is fertile for a proper anti establishment movement, even a 'spoil your paper' group at the next general election.
Even if we don't get that, I rather suspect that turnout will be even lower than has been the recent norm - leaving any government with very limited legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
If it is a narrow Remain the biggest beneficiaries would be UKIP
I'm looking at all this with Corbyn and Livingstone, and the conduct of the Government in the EU Referendum, and the general unpopularity of politicians - and it does all seem to be coinciding to create a perfect storm.
The ground is fertile for a proper anti establishment movement, even a 'spoil your paper' group at the next general election.
Even if we don't get that, I rather suspect that turnout will be even lower than has been the recent norm - leaving any government with very limited legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
Cameron siding with Brendan Barber to protect us from his own government, at a price tag of £1.7m+ still astonishes me - it's an appalling message
I take your point. I think that Naz Shah was genuinely sincere in her apology, in contrast to Livingstone. Nonetheless she should stay suspended until she has mended her ways.
The real measure of an apology is whether it is accompanied by repentance, the offence not repeated and at least some attempt to make amends.
We get a lot of rubbishy apologies from public figures of various sorts that are forced and not followed up by remedial action. To me that just doubles the original offence.
Naz Shah was drafted in as PPC just 2 months before the election. In her favour she put the far worse George Galloway out of office, and is a positive example to the women of Bradford in some other ways, particularly over forced marriage and domestic violence.
Anyone else hopping mad about BT's price rise? Second time in a year I think.
Never happened when they were a public sector utility.
No, but you couldn't get a telephone line quickly , probably a years' wait, repairs took forever and call costs were stratospheric, especially long distance and overseas calls.
The GPO was shite.
I'm quite happy with BTs price hike as it confirmed that I made the right move when I changed to thephone.coop for my phone and broadband a few months ago.
I am quite happy too. I am really looking forward to watching Leicester in the Champions League next year on BT.
However, in a further blow, Israeli Labour leader Isaac Herzog has today sent a letter to Jeremy Corbyn describing Ken Livingstone’s remarks as “horrific”. Herzog says he recognises that “the views recently expressed represent a minority within the British Labour Party”, but adds that “this cannot diminish the importance of dealing with this serious problem”. You can read the full letter below (click to enlarge):
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
McMao is a lot more worrying than Jahadi Jez. Jez is mostly an old fool with a limited world view that is stuck in the 70's and refuses to adjust and thus is unelectable. McMao has some even worse views but is much more savvy and flexible when it comes to what he is willing to say.
Indeed, I think John Mcdonnell could be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS, from the same wing of the party, both Shadow Chancellor but both more media savvy, intelligent and heavy hitting. Howard did not win but he did ensure the Tories made modest progress in 2005 to set up their future recovery
Howard achieved a 3% swing and gained over 30 seats in 2005. If Mcdonnell were to manage that he would make it to No 10!
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
McMao is a lot more worrying than Jahadi Jez. Jez is mostly an old fool with a limited world view that is stuck in the 70's and refuses to adjust and thus is unelectable. McMao has some even worse views but is much more savvy and flexible when it comes to what he is willing to say.
Indeed, I think John Mcdonnell could be Labour's Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS, from the same wing of the party, both Shadow Chancellor but both more media savvy, intelligent and heavy hitting. Howard did not win but he did ensure the Tories made modest progress in 2005 to set up their future recovery
Howard achieved a 3% swing and gained over 30 seats in 2005. If Mcdonnell were to manage that he would make it to No 10!
Wrong, Howard increased the Tory vote by 0.7%, he won more seats solely because of Labour voters switching to the LDs (who also took off seats from Labour). The LDs would have backed a Labour government anyway. If McDonnell increased the Labour vote by 0.7% he would not end up PM, if Tory voters went to UKIP, UKIP would still prop up a minority Tory government and even if Labour won 30 seats off the Tories the Tories would still be largest party, especially with the boundary changes to come
Comments
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell: "I wish Ken Livingstone would have apologised today for the offence he's caused" https://t.co/or6ssie7Nh
The GPO was shite.
The ground is fertile for a proper anti establishment movement, even a 'spoil your paper' group at the next general election.
Even if we don't get that, I rather suspect that turnout will be even lower than has been the recent norm - leaving any government with very limited legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
I may be teaching my granny to suck eggs, but have you read Malaparte? I'm doing his Kaputt at the moment, hard to decide whether it's 'important' or just interesting. In any case he's fascinating for anyone interested in the gamier side of Italian/European Fascist politics & history.
I'm not as forgiving as you SeanT. Anyone can be eloquent in apology after they have been caught. Let's be honest here, she didn't say anything that none of her Muslim constituents wouldn't agree whole heartedly with, and as we have discovered, large swathes of the hard Left also hold her views. She said what she said, she meant it, she got exposed, and she issued a grovelling apology to save her own skin. Cue apologists like Alan Johnson saying she has come out of this episode with 'credit'. If that is what he and others truly believe, then Labour are in even bigger trouble than we first thought.
I cannot help but think that if this had been a white Tory male, the shit storm would have been ten times worse. I've no doubt whatsoever that Labour would have filed a police complaint on grounds of inciting racial hatred, maybe rightly so. Why has no such complaint been made against her? There would have been hundreds of demonstrators outside of said MPs home, demanding blood, possibly literally.
Livingstone has conveniently taken the spotlight away from Shah, which is the real tragedy here, because her views are widely espoused by the community she represents, and this could have been a golden opportunity to tackle the Islamic extremism that is flourishing in this country.
1) New leaders normally get a 'honeymoon bounce' if we get a new LOTO in 2019 that is even just OK then the honeymoon bounce could be enough to have a socialist in 10 downing street.
2) This is a terrifying thought, but what if a scandal or two emerge just before the 2020 election, and its enough to really move swing voters, sex or money normally does it, e.g. the PM has been involved in sex party's with Dead Farm Animals, or has is own money in off shore tax havens.
O, wait, on second thoughts that second point is not valid, but the first one still is.
https://youtu.be/sYOlBsls-C0?t=6s
http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/6463/full
I take your point. I think that Naz Shah was genuinely sincere in her apology, in contrast to Livingstone. Nonetheless she should stay suspended until she has mended her ways.
The real measure of an apology is whether it is accompanied by repentance, the offence not repeated and at least some attempt to make amends.
We get a lot of rubbishy apologies from public figures of various sorts that are forced and not followed up by remedial action. To me that just doubles the original offence.
Naz Shah was drafted in as PPC just 2 months before the election. In her favour she put the far worse George Galloway out of office, and is a positive example to the women of Bradford in some other ways, particularly over forced marriage and domestic violence.
Money well spent :-)