politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s Ipsos-MORI ratings continue to decline while Corb

Indigo said:

Dave takes one for the party country European elite.

How selfless of him to persist in destroying his political opponents.

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

Any ratings for the 'Near Perfect Chancellor'?

Patrick said:

If? Of course there will be a recession in the near future. We get one just about every decade. 2008 is 8 years ago now. We should be deep into the 'running a surplus phase' of a Keynesian cycle. Some very big countries are in a horrible state. Chance of getting through this parliament with no recession is close to zero IMHO. That's when we'll find out just how sorted the EU really is or isn't. And ourselves. We never got into the 'fixing the roof' phase and will be made to suffer for it.

Economic expansions do not die of old age; they die because - usually - economies become unbalanced and/or hit constraints. There are exceptions, such as when there is an external shock, but if you look over the last 50 years, the majority of recessions were caused by governments raising interest rates to slow the economy after inflation began to accelerate.

There are other signs we can look for. The later stages of economic expansions usually see personal and corporate debt start to take off. Similarly, the current account deficit usually widens before a recession, and shrinks during and after it.

If you look at the "tell tale signs a recession is coming", you get:

- rising inflation?
No. Still virtually non-existent.

- rising personal and corporate debt?
No. Although at still elevated levels, it's declining.

- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

Afternoon all, cracking speech by the sainted Theresa.

If only I could vote for the committee of civil servants who wrote it for next Cons leader I would be happy. I see some of them seem to have spent some time on PB.

Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

...
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

For the UK, yes, but not in the EU as a whole, of course.

Without the monetary stimulus programme from the ECB it is questionable whether there would be very much growth at all outside of Spain and possibly Germany.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

yes, I think there is a certain amount of comparing like with like that needs to be done.

How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative.

Ignore the noisy minority

You have to figure that among the membership the situation will be worse still.

In other news, it seems that the FullFact.org document's heart is in Remain but manages to make a convincing case for Leave, in contradistinction to the Capital Economics document, whose heart was in Leave, but made a convincing case for Remain.

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

yes, I think there is a certain amount of comparing like with like that needs to be done.

How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.

In June 1984, one year after her second election victory, Lady Thatcher net ratings were minus 15.

So Cameron's doing better than Thatcher at a similar point.

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

...
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

For the UK, yes, but not in the EU as a whole, of course.

The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

Its problem is lack of domestic demand, caused by lack of confidence. And it's a bit of a vicious circle: savings rates are amongst the highest in the world because people are worried. But the high levels of savings constrain economic growth (a rising savings rate will tend to detract from growth, which is why during recessions monetary policy is to discourage saving and encourafe spending), and therefore increase economic uncertainty... causing savings levels to remain high.

George Magnus, of Deutsche Bank, wrote about this phenomenon and called it "Euroglut". Personally, I think he misses that saving exhibits declining marginal utility, and therefore beyond a certain point, propensity to save will decline. Given pretty awful demographics in much of the EU, that could - of course - be some way away.

Satisfaction with party leaders

Cameron - https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorapril2016-160420110832/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-april-2016-6-638.jpg?cb=1461584642

Basically the same as it ever was.

Also, prime ministers tend to be unpopular.

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorapril2016-160420110832/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-april-2016-7-638.jpg?cb=1461584642

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative.

Ignore the noisy minority

Although it's pretty usual to have high ratings among party supporters as there's a fairly high correlation between moving to disapprove of a party leader and moving to not support that party. 71% isn't all that high by historic standards, is it?

rcs1000 said:

- rising inflation?
No. Still virtually non-existent.

You know far more about this than me, but what inflation rate do you refer to? Both of the 'official' ONS rates are low, but neither account for house price inflation, which still seems to be bonkers in London and the South East.

50% of the population are not sure if Tim Farron is doing a good job.

And the other 50% don't know.

blackburn63 said:

I can't imagine him getting a job where you have to think

STILL posting about me.

For someone who claims not to care, thou doth protest much.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Indigo, thought Boris was a lightweight some time ago, so I'm glad he's damaged his prospects.

May's position appears nonsensical, but I do think she's far likelier than Boris to get the top job.

TheScreamingEagles said:

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

yes, I think there is a certain amount of comparing like with like that needs to be done.

How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.

In June 1984, one year after her second election victory, Lady Thatcher net ratings were minus 15.

So Cameron's doing better than Thatcher at a similar point.

But Thatcher wasn't facing off against Corbyn.

blackburn63 said:

The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

Really?

It wouldn't surprise me - they have a massive surplus in trade with the UK for instance, and they are very protectionist.

TheScreamingEagles said:

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

yes, I think there is a certain amount of comparing like with like that needs to be done.

How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.

In June 1984, one year after her second election victory, Lady Thatcher net ratings were minus 15.

So Cameron's doing better than Thatcher at a similar point.

I found some pictures that would put this into context. Plus a few comments. Probably enough to write a caveat emptor thread starter, if you wanted to.

Tories were well over 80% IIRC

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative.

Ignore the noisy minority

Although it's pretty usual to have high ratings among party supporters as there's a fairly high correlation between moving to disapprove of a party leader and moving to not support that party. 71% isn't all that high by historic standards, is it?

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

...
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

For the UK, yes, but not in the EU as a whole, of course.

Without the monetary stimulus programme from the ECB it is questionable whether there would be very much growth at all outside of Spain and possibly Germany.

(And Ireland)

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ed Miliband's net rating in April 2011 was plus 1, Cameron's was minus 14

yes, I think there is a certain amount of comparing like with like that needs to be done.

How does Cameron compare to other prime ministers, how does Corbyn compare to Ed M at a similar juncture.

In June 1984, one year after her second election victory, Lady Thatcher net ratings were minus 15.

So Cameron's doing better than Thatcher at a similar point.

I found some pictures that would put this into context. Plus a few comments. Probably enough to write a caveat emptor thread starter, if you wanted to.

Already working on it thank you.

Racism in action....that is the sports minister not the sports...

South Africa's sports minister has banned four of the country's sport federations from bidding for major international tournaments after they failed to create enough opportunities for black players.

Rugby, cricket, athletics and netball are the affected federations.

The South African Rugby Union had announced it would bid for the 2023 Rugby World Cup by the June deadline.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/36130932

Next month will be revealing.

BannedInParis said:

Well, unless you're Cameron, that is.

The key thing to note is that they all start off quite positive. Only Blair and Cameron, to a lesser extent, have managed to battle gravity.

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

Really?

Yes, overall they do. Germany has a huge surplus, one that warrants EU action.

If you want to look at current accounts by country (albeit for 2014 rather than 2015), then they are here: http://beta.data.worldbank.org/?indicators=BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS

Most European countries (except Norway) will have seen current account balances increase further in 2015, as the cost of importing oil, natural gas, steel and coal declined markedly in 2015.

My rough and ready calculations.

At this point of the electoral cycle, the Tories and Cameron are doing better/on a par with parties/leaders that went onto win the next election.

Labour and Corbyn aren't doing well enough to suggest they will win the next election.

As for own party voters' support, the data only goes back to 1994, unlike the other data that goes back to the 70s, so less scope for analysis.

Cameron's doing better than Major post 1992, worse than Blair upto 2003, and better than Blair post 2003

Given how fulsome Obama was about Merkel over the weekend, I'm surprised no-one has alleged that by intervening so strongly in the UK referendum he is doing her bidding, rather than Downing Street's.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

...
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

For the UK, yes, but not in the EU as a whole, of course.

Without the monetary stimulus programme from the ECB it is questionable whether there would be very much growth at all outside of Spain and possibly Germany.

True, but that's partly because they started much later than the UK and US, and also partly because of the relative slowdown in China.

Having said that, it's also the case that the policy mix within individual EU states hasn't been good. France is probably the worst - bleedin' obvious what they need to do, and equally obvious that they are not going to do it anytime soon.

Still, all of that lot is 'in the price' in terms of growth looking forward; with the ECB doing what it can within the political constraints, and the lower oil price providing an effect like a tax-cut, I don't expect an EU recession in the next couple of years (unless a Leave result triggers one).

France seems unlikely to reform any time in the near future, even a new president isn't going to change anything in France, they are all stuck with the same basic issues over labour and state spending. If anything the rise of MLP will make things worse in France as the right wing will look to ape her protectionist policies.

What is difficult to predict is when the ECB stimulus stops being effective, as we saw with the Fed, eventually the bond buying programme becomes ineffective for supporting growth. The other big question is what happens to the Eurozone once interest rates start to go up over here and when the Fed resumes raising US interest rates, how much money is going to pile into such low yield assets in the EMU when easier gains are able to be had in stable countries like the US and UK?

David Cameron is doing something with his political capital at present. The other leaders are not.

In the cases of Tim Farron and Jeremy Corbyn, that's reasonable enough. For Nigel Farage, that's incomprehensible.

AndyJS said:

Trump currently on 49% of delegates, tomorrow could take him over 50%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

The easiest page to look at is http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

The key factor is California on June 7th - recent polls have swung towards Trump But if you want some fun try http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

If Trump gets more than 97 delegates tomorrow he is ahead of projections.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative.

Ignore the noisy minority

Although it's pretty usual to have high ratings among party supporters as there's a fairly high correlation between moving to disapprove of a party leader and moving to not support that party. 71% isn't all that high by historic standards, is it?

Not looked at it in detail, but in April 2012, when these last elections were fought, Cameron's absolute satisfaction rating amongst Tory voters was 68% and his net rating was +39%

So on both scores, he's doing better today than he was in April 2012.

April 2012 was pretty much the low point for the Tories during the last parliament IIRC? Right after the omnishambles Budget and with Labour on about a 10-point lead?

Yup.

Though some of us remember when David Cameron had a MINUS net rating with Tory voters.

TheScreamingEagles said:

My rough and ready calculations.

At this point of the electoral cycle, the Tories and Cameron are doing better/on a par with parties/leaders that went onto win the next election.

Labour and Corbyn aren't doing well enough to suggest they will win the next election.

As for own party voters' support, the data only goes back to 1994, unlike the other data that goes back to the 70s, so less scope for analysis.

Cameron's doing better than Major post 1992, worse than Blair upto 2003, and better than Blair post 2003

The problem for the Tories is if Labour dump Corbyn and put a credible leader in place, small chance at the moment, but if we were to put up Osborne as leader then it becomes a distinct possibility that we lose 2020, one of the reasons we need a close result is to ensure Osborne can't get his hands on the leadership.

AlastairMeeks said:

David Cameron is doing something with his political capital at present. The other leaders are not. ....

Yes but for REMAIN to win based on a strategy of having Cameron front it, they really need a better than 2 out of 3 votes from those who do not vote Conservative or UKIP.
70% say that Cameron is out of touch with ordinary people.
63% disagree that Cameron has sound judgement.

I see there are predictions for labour net seat losses in May out there, is there likely to be a spread bet market in these?

runnymede said:

rcs1000 said:

weejonnie said:

blackburn63 said:

The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

Really?

It wouldn't surprise me - they have a massive surplus in trade with the UK for instance, and they are very protectionist.

There's all the data on tariff you could possibly want here: http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx

By and large, the US and the EU have very similar average tariff levels, which are typically just below WTO requirements.

China, India, Japan, and much of Africa and South America are very protectionist, and have quite a lot of tariffs well above WTO levels.

Singapore and a few other places have very low tariffs.

The place where the EU shows very clear protectionist tendencies is in agriculture. In goods and services it's actually got a very open economy.

As measured by tariffs, yes. But the main protectionist instruments are not tariffs, but NTBs - the effect of which is considerable and not just in agriculture.

Which are the specific NTBs that you are thinking of?

When I last read through the Doha round minutes (https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm) there were very few outstanding issues with EU NTBs. (And, for that matter, there weren't that many with the US.)

Almost all the NTB issues related to India, China and Japan,

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

...
- widening current account deficit?
Yes. Excluding the effects of cheaper oil, the current account deficit is amongst the worst in the world.

For the UK, yes, but not in the EU as a whole, of course.

Without the monetary stimulus programme from the ECB it is questionable whether there would be very much growth at all outside of Spain and possibly Germany.

True, but that's partly because they started much later than the UK and US, and also partly because of the relative slowdown in China.

Having said that, it's also the case that the policy mix within individual EU states hasn't been good. France is probably the worst - bleedin' obvious what they need to do, and equally obvious that they are not going to do it anytime soon.

Still, all of that lot is 'in the price' in terms of growth looking forward; with the ECB doing what it can within the political constraints, and the lower oil price providing an effect like a tax-cut, I don't expect an EU recession in the next couple of years (unless a Leave result triggers one).

France seems unlikely to reform any time in the near future, even a new president isn't going to change anything in France, they are all stuck with the same basic issues over labour and state spending. If anything the rise of MLP will make things worse in France as the right wing will look to ape her protectionist policies.

What is difficult to predict is when the ECB stimulus stops being effective, as we saw with the Fed, eventually the bond buying programme becomes ineffective for supporting growth. The other big question is what happens to the Eurozone once interest rates start to go up over here and when the Fed resumes raising US interest rates, how much money is going to pile into such low yield assets in the EMU when easier gains are able to be had in stable countries like the US and UK?

Although there is a natural self balancing thing working there: rising rates in the US and the UK will tend to raise the dollar and sterling versus the Euro. This will make holidays in the Mediterranean much cheaper, and lower the cost of goods produced in the the Eurozone rather than in the UK and the US.

Of course, against that, we have a nasty current account issue, and need a weaker currency generally. The question is which way the currency will go in the event of rising interest rates given the liabilities side of the picture.

I think our currency stays low whatever the weather at the moment.

Corbyn has improved his performances, but I still regard him as fundamentally unsuitable for the role, but it would appear people are warming to him somewhat.

Sean_F said:

Cameron's ratings next month will likely depend on whether the media renew their attacks on the government.

Hope so,sooner we get rid of the fake PM,the better.

Another one

http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157341/labour-activist-suspended-saying-israel-uses-holocaust-a-political-tool’

Plato_Says said:

SkyData
Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
Age 18-34:
26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
Age 55+:
16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

Obama should have taken Liam Fox's advice to stay out of the debate.