politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead
Almost one of the constants of this campaign has been that the Inners are doing a fair bit better with phone polls than online and so the pattern continues tonight.
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OK 5th like ManU then...
Faisal Islam ✔ @faisalislam
In response to Osborne, @vote_leave have put out @johnredwood to say PM "not to be trusted" given pro-ERM HMT role
11:12 PM - 17 Apr 2016
Good night. Start? What was IDS calling Cameron and Osborne liars (by inference at least)?
From one point of view, it's not surprising they are rattled. The daily drip-drip of Project Doubt (which is what it is, not 'Project Fear') is bound to have a cumulative effect. It will of course continue every day until June 23rd.
But what on earth did they expect? Has it really come as a complete surprise to them that the utter failure to prepare an alternative plan, or put in place some at least vaguely plausible answers to the doubts, might be a problem?
FPT
"Darth Eagles", that is priceless, Cap'n Doc, just superb. I shall use it henceforth.
The art of great satire is to pick out the essential the truth and, by the cringe, you did it with that piece. Also I love the idea of the "Daft side of the Force" - superb, simply superb.
Best wishes to your Mum now that the growing season is upon us, hope she is gearing up for this year's competition.
Avast, Belike, Else.
*Well the least inaccurate pollster
And on that bombshell, goodnight
Obviously the long term decline in the value of Sterling is not all, or even very much, connected with the EEC/EC/EU. Why should leaving the EU present a greater risk in the medium to long term?
This crap that Cameron and Co are putting out really is starting to get on my nerves. Osborne is, in my household at least, becoming a hate figure. If he was competent enough to deliver on what he said he would that might give him some space but he has failed on his own terms and so has zero credibility. When Herself, a lifelong Conservative voter through and through, changes channels whenever Cameron or Osborne is on TV and actually starts swearing when reading the of their pronouncements in the Telegraph, then I start to think Cameron and his clique have a problem.
May need to belay entering this year's gardening compy, as we're soon to be having a new kitchen done, with associated building stuff likely "adorning" our front, but hopefully it will be done by the late summer.
The leave campaign does have a pretty good point though, doesn't it, that the future of the EU is equally uncertain? the very modus operandi of EU decisions on all major matters being to kick the can down the road, look the other way and whistle.
"Mary Beard: Allowing students 'safe spaces' is 'fundamentally dishonest'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/17/mary-beard-allowing-students-safe-spaces-is-fundamentally-dishon/
Almost there
To get optimistic, I'd like to see Leave regularly getting numbers in the 41-43% range. We are not there yet.
The PM and Chancellor have made a total bollox of things, instead of running the country they're obsessed with terrifying people into prolonging their stagnating careers.
Take the £1.7bn that Cameron handed over despite guaranteeing he wouldn't, we know where it comes from - UK taxpayers, but where on earth does it go?
Nobody has a clue, it is a travesty and Cameron is a traitor, stealing our money and giving it away.
It will certainly play to the older (already LEAVE) demographic - a 40 year old in 1990 is now 66 - while no one under their mid-thirties will have the remotest idea what its about...
A plan has been developed: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
Which 'European Court'?
Deliberately ambiguous?
Or are we going to withdraw from the EHCR (which we drafted) too?
But this is black magic, as we all know. I think GDP in the event of Brexit is just as likely to be higher by 2030.
What is undoubtedly very good is its business model - a mix of advertising and subscription- which gives it a financial clout other broadcasters can only dream of. That coupled to its political links has always made it virtually unassailable.
People buy things because they are good, it has zero to do with the EU or any other bureaucracy, plenty of countries thrive outside of it, so would we. Juncker etc have never made or sold a thing in their lives, they need to get out of the way and let people buy and sell what they want from who they want, they have absolutely no right to interfere with business transactions.
Reality Check verdict: Leaving the EU would not give the UK an extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36040060
You cannot, ever. beat the market.
Which other mechanism is provided for in EU Treaties?
Four Freedoms?
Yes or No?
We've already been told we can't have 'Three out of Four' Freedoms.....
That does not of course mean that more people do not watch it given the number of pubs/clubs etc who buy it, but it doesn't necessarily suggest people buy it because it's good. Indeed, it's hard not to imagine that
Maoistmost (oops!) people get it because it's now the only place you can watch most sports live, however ineptly they are presented. That again is a good business model not a good product.And if we can't trust the judgement of those who advocated the UK's membership of the ERM, clearly we must take the words of Lord Lawson, Lord Lamont and the late Lady Thatcher with a pinch of salt too.
Where is the evidence they are happy? Don't quote Sky's own sources, they're not trustworthy.
As with SINDYRef (is that a trigger word?) LEAVE are promising a lot of stuff not within their gift.
Now if you think Britain's 64 million are going to get everything they want from rEU's 444 million and their 27 governments, may I have some of what you're on?
Both, equally bonkers and repellent in their own way.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff96bc10-04d8-11e6-9d17-169208febe58
@ChrisGiles_: My initial analysis of Treasury Brexit numbers (Spoiler: thay are both large and credible) https://t.co/2G0tZnRyuh via @FT
Meanwhile Project Whinge roll out John Redwood. Yup, that'll do it.
Put it this way - the Treasury is claiming that leaving the EU will lead a permanent drop in UK GDP which is about the same as the short-term impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and is somewhat larger than most estimates of the long-term impact of that crisis.
I doubt anyone involved in this report really believes these numbers.
I wonder if Wings over UK is based in Slovakia....
Once we are out a more nuanced approach will be more straightforward, albeit still a matter of negotiation and agreement.
But do you really think that it is *plausible* that every family will be £4,300 worse off* as the Beeb is reporting? It seems well out of line with what everyone else is saying and, in my view, overeggs what they need to do and risks credibility
* I believe this is by 2030.
The fact is that Nigel Lawson's policy of shadowing the Deutschemark in the late 1980s led to monetary policy that was far too loose. This meant that inflation accelerated, reaching about 11% in late summer 1990. To respond to sharply rising inflation, interest rates rose, and this hammered the UK economy at the same time that the world economy was already slipping into a nasty recession.
The ERM did not cause Britain's early 1990s recession: that was the result of a late 1980s boom, too much consumer debt, a slowdown in the world economy, and runaway inflation.
It did, however, make it harder for the government to respond, and the fact that interest rates in the summer of 1992 were sent through the roof at a time when inflation was largely vanquished is a testament to the fact that exchange rate pegs very rarely work.
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/swiss-told-to-vote-again-on-free-movement-except-this-time-the-stakes-are-higher/
Could we all be 4k worse off? Yes.
Could we all be 4k bettwe off? Yes.
Is there any way to test? No.
Short of sawing the country in half, and allowing half of it to remain in the EU, and half to leave, all these are forecasts are untestable and should be ignored. (Perhaps we should saw it in three thirds: EU, EFTA/EEA, and CO.)
Oxford Economics assessment suggested Brexit would shrink the economy by up to 3.9 per cent
National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast a decline of 2.25 per cent
PWC put it at 3.5 per cent.