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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democrati

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  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    glw said:

    Firstly almost all the arguments made when the voters were listening in the short campaign before the referendum were about money, and worse than that they were about large corporations and banks losing money, not a matter close to the hearts of most voters.

    Remain were able to produce an endless queue of people the public hate to advocate remaining in the EU. It was impressively deluded.
    The oddest bit was taking someone the public generally respected, generally had a lot of time for, and generally viewed favourably (Obama) and got him to say the one thing that would really piss the voters off and turn them against him. I thought Mrs Indigo, previously something of an Obama fan was going to throw something at the television after his "back of the queue" comments.
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    isam said:

    Wtf. Leavers, take your blood pressure pills before reading this tweet:

    Alain de BottonVerified account
    @alaindebotton
    Amazing the kind of politics you can engineer when you systematically underfund a nation's education system for a generation.

    Fck, don't want to be a member of club that includes de Botton. I'll take Harris though.

    https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/821491977057431552
    Mr Harris please step away from the keyboard and take a walk.
    That is surely a joke? He wouldn't have put "irony" in otherwise
    I hope so.
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    glw said:

    Yep, she makes a lot of promises. I am looking forward to seeing what her fairer country turns out to be in reality.

    Of course May has to deliver on her speech, but she did explicitly say we are keeping existing rights outside of the EU, so it seems a bit unreasonable to talk about us having fewer rights.

    She also threatened to walk away from a bad deal and to turn the UK into an offshore economy. You can't do that without a very flexible labour market. We will see what happens. But the idea that the right wingers she is in thrall too, and who kept the UK out of the Social Chapter for so long, are committed to ensuring that UK workers continue to enjoy the rights that are currently guaranteed to them under EU law is less than compelling IMO.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CCHQPress: Another round of positive @ONS stats show that wages GREW by 2.8% - means more money in the pockets of working people

    @CCHQPress: Another round of positive @ONS stats show that wages GREW by 2.8% - means more money in the pockets of working people

    despite being a member of the EU
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    ‪Why are racists such awful spellers ?‬

    https://twitter.com/oceanseyye/status/821092275912589313

    *coughs* systematically underfunding a nation's education system for a generation?
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    OllyT said:

    But we Remainers will have to be a lot more imaginative than we have been. Remainerism has to be sold as a patriotic endeavour, not the "bankster's favourite".

    Good luck with that.

    Firstly almost all the arguments made when the voters were listening in the short campaign before the referendum were about money, and worse than that they were about large corporations and banks losing money, not a matter close to the hearts of most voters.

    Secondly, you are going to have to persuade people that it is patriotic to give a large amount of control of their country to a supranational body. Its patriotic to push vast numbers of low paid men into part time jobs, and its patriotic for people to feel that their culture is being eroded day by day, and they dont recognise the place they grew up in.

    Thirdly, and most problematic, the Leave campaign from the start sold itself as a patriotic endeavor, that is the subtext of the brilliantly effective "Vote Leave - Take Control" slogan. At the same time the Remain campaign banged on endlessly on themes which amounted to "too poor too wee too stupid", at the time when voters were paying the closest attention.
    In the same way that Leavers used to blame every problem on the EU all Remainers will need to do in a couple of years is blame everything on Brexit. It will be an easy and successful strategy - after all we are only starting 3.8% behind. - there will be an anti-Brexit majority in the country by the next GE.
    There really won't, you are forgetting the huge group of Conservative loyalists who didnt want to let Dave down, and now don't want to let Tezzie down. Add in all the people who thought they could trust Osborne and have since found of the Treasury projections were deluded bollocks. Those groups both move into the Leave camp.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @CCHQPress: Another round of positive @ONS stats show that wages GREW by 2.8% - means more money in the pockets of working people

    @CCHQPress: Another round of positive @ONS stats show that wages GREW by 2.8% - means more money in the pockets of working people

    despite being a member of the EU

    So just to be clear Scott:

    Good news = because of the EU
    Bad news = because of leaving the EU

    You quite literally made the reverse point yesterday. With the opposite sarcastic cross-through.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    have since found of the Treasury projections were deluded bollocks.

    You do know we haven't left yet, right?

    Haven't begun the process of leaving. Haven't even established the legal requirements for beginning the process of leaving.

    Forecasts for leaving can not yet be bollocks...
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    On Thread.
    Kamala Harris is too much of a long shot, besides which I think that the GOP or similar will win the next US election, too.

    My reasoning is this:
    Donald Trump will make at least a partial success of his term in office. Even if he dies, mid term, Pence will take over the mantel and continue some of Trump's policies.

    The Democrats will still be seen as the party of the elite by the majority of voters: even more so by the bitter infighting for power within the party

    If Trump survives his first 4 years he will easily win a second term.

    This all predicated on the fact that Trump will not be assassinated or simply murdered by fanatical Democratic Liberals as many Democratic politicians have threatened.

    Trumps Inauguration will be the most heavily guarded and protected since Reagan, and if an assassin did slip through the net the security services will be blamed and wouldn't be trusted for a generation.

    Black Market bets are going around (no names mentioned) that Trump will be picked of before or on inauguration day. Sickening but true!

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    glw said:

    Yep, she makes a lot of promises. I am looking forward to seeing what her fairer country turns out to be in reality.

    Of course May has to deliver on her speech, but she did explicitly say we are keeping existing rights outside of the EU, so it seems a bit unreasonable to talk about us having fewer rights.
    SO believes the bits that are TORYBAD "maybe offshore centre if punishment Brexit" but discounts the things that are TORYGOOD

    And a fairer Britain is a country that protects and enhances the rights people have at work.

    That is why, as we translate the body of European law into our domestic regulations, we will ensure that workers rights are fully protected and maintained.

    Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers’ set out in European legislation, we will build on them. Because under this Conservative Government, we will make sure legal protection for workers keeps pace with the changing labour market – and that the voices of workers are heard by the boards of publicly-listed companies for the first time.


    Its obvious - she's telling the truth about a hypothetical, but lying about an actual.....
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    ‪Why are racists such awful spellers ?‬

    https://twitter.com/oceanseyye/status/821092275912589313

    *coughs* systematically underfunding a nation's education system for a generation?
    Heh.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So just to be clear Scott:

    Good news = because of the EU
    Bad news = because of leaving the EU

    The Brexiteers complain that the EU is holding us back, then cheer good economic news despite being a member of the EU

    I have been entirely consistent, in mocking them
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    .

    glw said:

    Yep, she makes a lot of promises. I am looking forward to seeing what her fairer country turns out to be in reality.

    Of course May has to deliver on her speech, but she did explicitly say we are keeping existing rights outside of the EU, so it seems a bit unreasonable to talk about us having fewer rights.

    She also threatened to walk away from a bad deal and to turn the UK into an offshore economy. You can't do that without a very flexible labour market. We will see what happens. But the idea that the right wingers she is in thrall too, and who kept the UK out of the Social Chapter for so long, are committed to ensuring that UK workers continue to enjoy the rights that are currently guaranteed to them under EU law is less than compelling IMO.
    I am not sure how we close the balance of trade gap without a vastly more flexible labour market, EU or no EU.
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    Personally I try and mock them.

    Make a scene and confront people being racist or anti-Semitic, minister says

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/make-a-scene-and-confront-people-being-racist-of-antisemitic-minister-says-a3443486.html
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    Scott_P said:

    have since found of the Treasury projections were deluded bollocks.

    You do know we haven't left yet, right?

    Haven't begun the process of leaving. Haven't even established the legal requirements for beginning the process of leaving.

    Forecasts for leaving can not yet be bollocks...
    Again Scott ignores the fact that the Treasury were making claims of fisastrr just for voting to.leave koto for actually doing it
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Again Scott ignores the fact that the Treasury were making claims of fisastrr just for voting to.leave koto for actually doing it

    And Richard ignores the forecasts were based on triggering article 50 "right away", which hasn't happened.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    ‪Why are racists such awful spellers ?‬

    https://twitter.com/oceanseyye/status/821092275912589313

    *coughs* systematically underfunding a nation's education system for a generation?

    ‪Why are racists such awful spellers ?‬

    https://twitter.com/oceanseyye/status/821092275912589313

    *coughs* systematically underfunding a nation's education system for a generation?
    One of them even claims he's not racist. No amount of money can fix that much stupid.
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    Juncker's keeping calm and carrying on

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/821675126743846913
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    It's likely Trump will be re-elected. Prehaps whilst still losing the popular vote becuase there is no reason for those 3 states to go back to the Dems. And if they pick a black woman from California she will be too easy for the GOP to caricature.
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    geoffw said:

    For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    Unless you manufacture cars. Or Aircraft parts. Or anything else that requires long International supply chains
  • Options
    Latest news from NI. DUP denials about SPADs being linked to RHI are falling apart.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2aUGe0XEAEud80.jpg:large

    Interesting article by Alex Kane http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/why-vote-mike-and-you-get-colum-is-starting-to-sound-like-a-good-idea-35375053.html

    Now here's where it becomes a difficult balancing act. SDLP and UUP have to present themselves as alternative parties of government while appealing to the kind of voters who see compromise as selling out. At least for transfers.

    There's an astonishing number of voters here who really do think in black and white terms.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    nunu said:

    It's likely Trump will be re-elected. Prehaps whilst still losing the popular vote becuase there is no reason for those 3 states to go back to the Dems. And if they pick a black woman from California she will be too easy for the GOP to caricature.

    Clearly the 40-1 nomination is far superior to the 66-1 POTUS.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tim80 said:

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.

    Hey, I have a bridge for sale. You sound like you might be just the sort of person I could interest...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,980

    ‪Why are racists such awful spellers ?‬

    https://twitter.com/oceanseyye/status/821092275912589313

    How do you bet those accounts are real/parody?
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    edited January 2017

    Latest news from NI. DUP denials about SPADs being linked to RHI are falling apart.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2aUGe0XEAEud80.jpg:large

    Interesting article by Alex Kane http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/why-vote-mike-and-you-get-colum-is-starting-to-sound-like-a-good-idea-35375053.html

    Now here's where it becomes a difficult balancing act. SDLP and UUP have to present themselves as alternative parties of government while appealing to the kind of voters who see compromise as selling out. At least for transfers.

    There's an astonishing number of voters here who really do think in black and white terms.

    The UUP should at least run in every constituency, the DUP look to be up to their neck in it here. At first glance they look to be suspiciously close to the line that says "fraud" rather than "cock up" here if the journalist's report is accurate.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    The trouble with May is that when she says something — even if she doesn't speak that often — she does seem to mean it. The commentariat are still acting as though Dave, Brown, or Blair are in power and deconstruct what May says to find the "real" meaning. I don't even particularly like May, and there's quite a bit of non EU related stuff I disagree with, but she appears to be a relatively plain speaking and straightforward person. It would all be a lot simpler if people listened to her.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Yes I agree. Moreover the noise made by remainers about our great loss from losing the single market actually works to our advantage as it persuades some in the EU that Brexit really is a cost to us. Reminds me of the Brer Rabbit story, saying to Brer Fox: "Do anything, but for Lord’s sake don’t fling me into that briar patch."
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    The trouble with May is that when she says something — even if she doesn't speak that often — she does seem to mean it. The commentariat are still acting as though Dave, Brown, or Blair are in power and deconstruct what May says to find the "real" meaning.

    The problem is that the British press believed May when she said walking away was better than a bad deal, but don't believe the EU when they say walking away would be madness, but if we want to shoot ourselves they won't stop us
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    geoffw said:

    it persuades some in the EU that Brexit really is a cost to us.

    It really is.

    One day the light will dawn...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    edited January 2017
    If Bercow is stepping down as speaker, isn't that another by-election incoming? (although next year probably)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    German Elections slated in for 24th September
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeK said:

    On Thread.
    Kamala Harris is too much of a long shot, besides which I think that the GOP or similar will win the next US election, too.

    My reasoning is this:
    Donald Trump will make at least a partial success of his term in office. Even if he dies, mid term, Pence will take over the mantel and continue some of Trump's policies.

    The Democrats will still be seen as the party of the elite by the majority of voters: even more so by the bitter infighting for power within the party

    If Trump survives his first 4 years he will easily win a second term.

    This all predicated on the fact that Trump will not be assassinated or simply murdered by fanatical Democratic Liberals as many Democratic politicians have threatened.

    Trumps Inauguration will be the most heavily guarded and protected since Reagan, and if an assassin did slip through the net the security services will be blamed and wouldn't be trusted for a generation.

    Black Market bets are going around (no names mentioned) that Trump will be picked of before or on inauguration day. Sickening but true!

    In the old days, one way of gambling on an assassination or even natural death was to arrange a life insurance policy on the subject, in the hope that they might collect.

    This has been stopped - however, for instance, a major fete or sporting event might be allowed to take out life insurance on HRH/ Prince Philip on the argument that the event would lose a lot of money if it had to be cancelled due to the death of either of the above.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If Bercow is stepping down as speaker, isn't that another by-election incoming?

    Best rumour I have seen so far, Soubry as his replacement :smile:
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    If Bercow is stepping down as speaker, isn't that another by-election incoming? (although next year probably)

    Link ?
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.
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    MikeK said:
    People on here when they get banned for spouting racist crap?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Scott_P said:

    If Bercow is stepping down as speaker, isn't that another by-election incoming?

    Best rumour I have seen so far, Soubry as his replacement :smile:
    She'd actually be quite good I think.
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    I'm beginning to think that a British 'Singapore' is now the most likely option. It will be the largest experiment in economic recalibration in history. The process will be gruelling and protracted and the outcome unknown. Leave politicians now need to appeal to our sense of national spunk:

    'The road will be bumpy, sometimes treacherous. There will be setbacks, despair, disappointment and pain. But the British spirit can overcome the burdens and obstacles cruel fate has hurled - as it has always overcome them, as it must overcome them'.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Latest news from NI. DUP denials about SPADs being linked to RHI are falling apart.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2aUGe0XEAEud80.jpg:large

    Interesting article by Alex Kane http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/why-vote-mike-and-you-get-colum-is-starting-to-sound-like-a-good-idea-35375053.html

    Now here's where it becomes a difficult balancing act. SDLP and UUP have to present themselves as alternative parties of government while appealing to the kind of voters who see compromise as selling out. At least for transfers.

    There's an astonishing number of voters here who really do think in black and white terms.

    The UUP should at least run in every constituency, the DUP look to be up to their neck in it here. At first glance they look to be suspiciously close to the line that says "fraud" rather than "cock up" here if the journalist's report is accurate.
    The front page of the Irish News has an interesting picture.

    I am concerned that the UUP won't have enough candidates if the DUP vote does fall through the floor. Opinion polling is rare here but we're expecting a poll at the end of the month which will be interesting.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
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    Scott_P said:

    Again Scott ignores the fact that the Treasury were making claims of fisastrr just for voting to.leave koto for actually doing it

    And Richard ignores the forecasts were based on triggering article 50 "right away", which hasn't happened.
    Nope. They were not. They were based on the vote nothing more. Stop rewriting history.
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    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358
    Interesting para in Waugh's daily update:

    Talk of a snap general election persists only among a small number of Tory backbenchers, but a general election if the final Brexit plan is voted down is very much alive. One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “The PM knows she always has the voters up her sleeve, and she wants to keep them there. If Parliament tries to block the deal she has brokered and recommended, she will then go to the country.”

    It's a risk to think that voters always stay up your sleeve - they have minds of their own. I rather like the idea of an election which hinges on whether to accept an imperfect EU deal achieved after endless grumbling or not. I think we'd be in with a much better shot than in a generic GE - if Labour rejects the deal and proposes a fresh approach, there's the 48% plus anyone unhappy with the deal to play for. If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.

    Lots of ifs there, and we'll see. But the reluctance of Ministers to say what happens if Parliament rejects the deal is really very interesting.
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    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    Isn't it just going to complicate a few pensions?
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    The government realised (or was told) that there was no option to stay in the single market without the four freedoms. The trading benefits of the single market were expounded at length in the campaign, and the dangers of leaving it were also expounded at length by Osborne and Cameron amongst others. The voters decided to leave, and recent polling in the last few days shows that they would rather leave the single market than have the four freedoms, the government listened, which is kind of its job.
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    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    God i love Brexit.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    . If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.
    .

    Interesting pitch "Ignore this potential PM's views on Hamas and the IRA - the other lot didn't get the moon on a stick that were suggesting they asked for"

    Good luck with that.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
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    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

    Nope - but it is a country that does not have a health service that is free at the point of use, does have a very small welfare state and very strict forced saving schemes.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2017

    If Bercow is stepping down as speaker, isn't that another by-election incoming? (although next year probably)

    Why do you think Bercow is stepping down.

    Would it be before a general election, at a general election or after the next general election?

    On Labour List Chris Bryant said

    When asked if he was interested in the role, Bryant said: “Listen, I got rung by the Mail on Sunday on Saturday about this. I failed to predict anything last year in politics. I am finding it quite difficult it hard to predict anything this year so my ability to predict even my own future for next year, let alone John Bercow’s, is absolutely nil… I can’t predict anything… I don’t know what I want to do next week.”
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited January 2017

    Interesting para in Waugh's daily update:

    Talk of a snap general election persists only among a small number of Tory backbenchers, but a general election if the final Brexit plan is voted down is very much alive. One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “The PM knows she always has the voters up her sleeve, and she wants to keep them there. If Parliament tries to block the deal she has brokered and recommended, she will then go to the country.”

    It's a risk to think that voters always stay up your sleeve - they have minds of their own. I rather like the idea of an election which hinges on whether to accept an imperfect EU deal achieved after endless grumbling or not. I think we'd be in with a much better shot than in a generic GE - if Labour rejects the deal and proposes a fresh approach, there's the 48% plus anyone unhappy with the deal to play for. If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.

    Lots of ifs there, and we'll see. But the reluctance of Ministers to say what happens if Parliament rejects the deal is really very interesting.

    The Tories need to do no such thing, after all the diligent work the Tories have done framing Corbyn over the last five years (by then) his record will speak for itself.

    You persist in this mythical 48% as well, how many of those were Tories supporting Dave, that will now be supporting Tezzie ? How many were people who believed Osborne and now... dont ?
  • Options
    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    Your words are like a dagger to my heart.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,291

    Interesting para in Waugh's daily update:

    Talk of a snap general election persists only among a small number of Tory backbenchers, but a general election if the final Brexit plan is voted down is very much alive. One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “The PM knows she always has the voters up her sleeve, and she wants to keep them there. If Parliament tries to block the deal she has brokered and recommended, she will then go to the country.”

    It's a risk to think that voters always stay up your sleeve - they have minds of their own. I rather like the idea of an election which hinges on whether to accept an imperfect EU deal achieved after endless grumbling or not. I think we'd be in with a much better shot than in a generic GE - if Labour rejects the deal and proposes a fresh approach, there's the 48% plus anyone unhappy with the deal to play for. If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.

    Lots of ifs there, and we'll see. But the reluctance of Ministers to say what happens if Parliament rejects the deal is really very interesting.

    How do you propose to get to the point where Labour can agree amongst themselves that the deal is rejectable and give any idea what the alternative would be. Corbyn wants FoM and John Mann doesn't.
  • Options
    Undoubtedly spoof accounts

    Anthony Joshua sent vile abuse from trolls after IBF World heavyweight champion posts picture of himself praying in a mosque

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.mirror.co.uk/sport/boxing/anthony-joshua-sent-vile-abuse-9641114.amp
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

    Nope - but it is a country that does not have a health service that is free at the point of use, does have a very small welfare state and very strict forced saving schemes.
    True... do the people there feel the worse for it ? Or do they like being a cutting edge economy. I was in Singapore on and off for 5 years a couple of decades ago, and my experience was that they seem pretty happy with their lot, plenty of work, plenty of money, fantastic services and facilities...

    When you land at Changi and look out to sea on final approach you can see container ships queuing over the horizon to dock at the Port of Singapore, there was a time when Port of London was like that.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    The government realised (or was told) that there was no option to stay in the single market without the four freedoms. The trading benefits of the single market were expounded at length in the campaign, and the dangers of leaving it were also expounded at length by Osborne and Cameron amongst others. The voters decided to leave, and recent polling in the last few days shows that they would rather leave the single market than have the four freedoms, the government listened, which is kind of its job.
    Oh absolutely. That wasn't what I said in my post. I was just comparing the views of the sane, rationale folk with the swivel-eyed loons.
  • Options

    Interesting para in Waugh's daily update:

    Talk of a snap general election persists only among a small number of Tory backbenchers, but a general election if the final Brexit plan is voted down is very much alive. One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “The PM knows she always has the voters up her sleeve, and she wants to keep them there. If Parliament tries to block the deal she has brokered and recommended, she will then go to the country.”

    It's a risk to think that voters always stay up your sleeve - they have minds of their own. I rather like the idea of an election which hinges on whether to accept an imperfect EU deal achieved after endless grumbling or not. I think we'd be in with a much better shot than in a generic GE - if Labour rejects the deal and proposes a fresh approach, there's the 48% plus anyone unhappy with the deal to play for. If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.

    Lots of ifs there, and we'll see. But the reluctance of Ministers to say what happens if Parliament rejects the deal is really very interesting.

    Corbyn's support for the IRA will be more potent than his backing of Hamas (particularly in constituencies in the West Midlands), but the Tories will -quite rightly - point to both; as well as his long-time support of Stop the War, an organisation that openly advocated the killing of British troops.

    Put it this way, Corbyn has contrived to make himself less trusted than May on the NHS, despite most voters believing that it is currently suffering a humanitarian disaster.

    He is the Tory get out of jail free card.

  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

    Nope - but it is a country that does not have a health service that is free at the point of use, does have a very small welfare state and very strict forced saving schemes.
    Plus I am not 100% sure the freedom-loving, taking-control British public are quite ready for a Confucian state opining on everything from chewing gum to haircuts.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    edited January 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
    I think it was one of the reasons remain lost, Britain follows every bloody rule to the letter whereas the continent tends to just ignore those they don't, or make up convenient fictions (French protectionist gambling for instance).

    There are other examples, freedom of movement in Belgium! is alot more qualified than here.

    People say oh this and that doesn't matter, it seems a mentality that is particularly prevalent in the public sector (Oh the extra billion a year due to PFI from the counterfactual of proper public borrowing or w/e for the NHS doesn't REALLY matter) but little things add up, inches become miles, billions become trillions.
  • Options

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

    Nope - but it is a country that does not have a health service that is free at the point of use, does have a very small welfare state and very strict forced saving schemes.
    True... do the people there feel the worse for it ? Or do they like being a cutting edge economy. I was in Singapore on and off for 5 years a couple of decades ago, and my experience was that they seem pretty happy with their lot, plenty of work, plenty of money, fantastic services and facilities...

    When you land at Changi and look out to sea on final approach you can see container ships queuing over the horizon to dock at the Port of Singapore, there was a time when Port of London was like that.

    Yep - the Tory right has long fantasised about turning the UK into Singapore. We will see whether actually doing so is popular among British voters, who - unlike the Singaporeans - live in a democracy.

  • Options
    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    Well, we disagree about the single market, but that's not really the point. The UK gov is headed by people actively supportive of or content with leaving it. The EU clearly thinks the benefits are much greater.

    Deals get done when each party values things differently. The point stands - the EU may believe we are worse off with a deal even if we do not. That is positive to a deal being done.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited January 2017
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    The government realised (or was told) that there was no option to stay in the single market without the four freedoms. The trading benefits of the single market were expounded at length in the campaign, and the dangers of leaving it were also expounded at length by Osborne and Cameron amongst others. The voters decided to leave, and recent polling in the last few days shows that they would rather leave the single market than have the four freedoms, the government listened, which is kind of its job.
    Oh absolutely. That wasn't what I said in my post. I was just comparing the views of the sane, rationale folk with the swivel-eyed loons.
    I suspect the view looks a little different between working in the City for a finance company and driving a forklift in Stevenage. The former can appreciate how much better off the Single Market will make him, the later can't see how it will change his life at all, doesn't care if the first is richer or not, and is concerned about Eastern Europeans coming and offering to do his job for less money, or for more hours and pushing him into a part time job.

    You might want to consider that those "swivel-eyed loons" are making a perfectly rational decision based on the world as it appears from where they sit.
  • Options

    Interesting para in Waugh's daily update:

    Talk of a snap general election persists only among a small number of Tory backbenchers, but a general election if the final Brexit plan is voted down is very much alive. One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “The PM knows she always has the voters up her sleeve, and she wants to keep them there. If Parliament tries to block the deal she has brokered and recommended, she will then go to the country.”

    It's a risk to think that voters always stay up your sleeve - they have minds of their own. I rather like the idea of an election which hinges on whether to accept an imperfect EU deal achieved after endless grumbling or not. I think we'd be in with a much better shot than in a generic GE - if Labour rejects the deal and proposes a fresh approach, there's the 48% plus anyone unhappy with the deal to play for. If the Tories start wittering about Corbyn once being polite to Hamas when everyone's deciding on Brexit, it'll look like evasion.

    Lots of ifs there, and we'll see. But the reluctance of Ministers to say what happens if Parliament rejects the deal is really very interesting.

    I fear you may be right Nick. The Tories seem to be increasingly relying on a May personality cult to see them home. There aren't many Tories now claiming Brexit as any kind of vote winner: it seems to be regarded as (at best) vote neutral and a thing to be endured until it somehow resolves itself.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
    I think it was one of the reasons remain lost, Britain has to follow every bloody rule to the letter whereas the continent tends to just ignore those they don't, or make up convenient fictions (French protectionist gambling for instance).
    Wasn't protectionism. They thought exchanges lead to gambling addictions/problems.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Stop rewriting history.

    You first...

    Here is some history for you

    there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
    I think it was one of the reasons remain lost, Britain has to follow every bloody rule to the letter whereas the continent tends to just ignore those they don't, or make up convenient fictions (French protectionist gambling for instance).
    Wasn't protectionism. They thought exchanges lead to gambling addictions/problems.
    Lol, did you buy that guff ? All about protecting the Paris-Mutuel.
  • Options
    tim80tim80 Posts: 99

    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

    Have you thought this through?

    Government sets tax and regulation. Workers and employers bargain for wages. Government does not mandate low wages. It could lower the minimum wage but that's actually the reverse to the direction the government seems set on.

    The original point stands - if the government succeeds in lowering business tax and regulation (one can debate if this is possible but for the sake of argument let's say it is) that has no downward impact on wages. If anything it pushes wages up because it increases demand.

    Tagging 'low wage' onto low tax and low regulation is political rhetoric.
  • Options

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.

    Our clients, mostly. The vile, disgusting, unpatriotic, liberal metropolitan elite is going to do very well out of Brexit.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited January 2017

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by td the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    The government realised (or was told) that there was no option to stay in the single market without the four freedoms. The trading benefits of the single market were expounded at length in the campaign, and the dangers of leaving it were also expounded at length by Osborne and Cameron amongst others. The voters decided to leave, and recent polling in the last few days shows that they would rather leave the single market than have the four freedoms, the government listened, which is kind of its job.
    Oh absolutely. That wasn't what I said in my post. I was just comparing the views of the sane, rationale folk with the swivel-eyed loons.
    I suspect the view looks a little different between working in the City for a finance company and driving a forklift in Stevenage. The former can appreciate how much better off the Single Market will make him, the later can't see how it will change his life at all, doesn't care if the first is richer or not, and is concerned about Eastern Europeans coming and offering to do his job for less money, or for more hours and pushing him into a part time job.

    You might want to consider that those "swivel-eyed loons" are making a perfectly rational decision based on the world as it appears from where they sit.
    169 Forklift Driver jobs in Stevenage.

    https://uk.jora.com/Forklift-jobs-in-Stevenage-District?utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=CI6uqtHSy9ECFQg6GwodAdwKXw

    One at random - £15-16/hr depending on experience.

    Like many Leaver "facts" they don't hold up to a moment's analysis.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    This one is particularly bizarre. I was in Singapore a couple of months ago on business, I must say it didnt strike me as particularly destitute, the way they are spraying money around on public works doesn't immediately suggest a country on the edge of ruin.

    Nope - but it is a country that does not have a health service that is free at the point of use, does have a very small welfare state and very strict forced saving schemes.
    neither does Ireland
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
    I think it was one of the reasons remain lost, Britain has to follow every bloody rule to the letter whereas the continent tends to just ignore those they don't, or make up convenient fictions (French protectionist gambling for instance).
    Wasn't protectionism. They thought exchanges lead to gambling addictions/problems.
    Very tenuously related, but there'd have been an uproar if we'd banned Danish/Dutch pork products on account of their lower animal welfare standards.

    A single market should mean just that, or its meaningless.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. Th money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

    Like Ireland?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.
    What about the productive sectors of the economy though :) ?
    There'll be opportunities for bookmakers too.
    The rest of europe never really subscribed to a "single market" for bookmaking anyway, bit odd that.
    Les grenouilles hate Betfair.

    Epic sad face
    I think it was one of the reasons remain lost, Britain has to follow every bloody rule to the letter whereas the continent tends to just ignore those they don't, or make up convenient fictions (French protectionist gambling for instance).
    Wasn't protectionism. They thought exchanges lead to gambling addictions/problems.
    Very tenuously related, but there'd have been an uproar if we'd banned Danish/Dutch pork products on account of their lower animal welfare standards.

    A single market should mean just that, or its meaningless.
    if we are serious about animal welfare we should
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    JP Morgan has warned investors that May's Brexit threats to the EU are 'very dangerous' + 'damaging' for UK jobs their profits.

    Ha, ha - consultants, lawyers, banks and similar are going to make an absolute fortune from Brexit.

    You say that like it's a bad thing.

    Our clients, mostly. The vile, disgusting, unpatriotic, liberal metropolitan elite is going to do very well out of Brexit.

    so stop moaning
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    TOPPING said:


    169 Forklift Driver jobs in Stevenage.

    https://uk.jora.com/Forklift-jobs-in-Stevenage-District?utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=CI6uqtHSy9ECFQg6GwodAdwKXw

    One at random - £15-16/hr depending on experience.

    Like many Leaver "stories" they don't hold up to a moment's analysis.

    The key being that you need somebody making the stuff your forks are going to lift.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn is going to win PMQs again. On Brexit
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Corbyn accuses PM of snubbing parliament by not publishing a White Paper on Brexit - "why will it not be scrutinised by this House?" #PMQs
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389

    TOPPING said:


    169 Forklift Driver jobs in Stevenage.

    https://uk.jora.com/Forklift-jobs-in-Stevenage-District?utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=CI6uqtHSy9ECFQg6GwodAdwKXw

    One at random - £15-16/hr depending on experience.

    Like many Leaver "stories" they don't hold up to a moment's analysis.

    The key being that you need somebody making the stuff your forks are going to lift.
    Maybe they are to work at an imported goods distribution depot..
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn is going to win PMQs again. On Brexit

    excellent

    it will help keep him in situ

    none of the voters give a stuff about PMQs
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    OMG Nice one from Corbyn
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    tim80 said:

    geoffw said:

    "Britain's Brexit deal must be inferior to EU membership" says Malta's pm.
    Wishful thinking. For the 27 it will surely be inferior. For the UK anything, including WTO fallback, is superior.

    There's actually room for a good outcome here.

    The EU thinks being outside the single market is inferior. The UK does not. So both sides can get what they want.

    If we have to have slightly higher transaction costs through not being full CU members, so be it. Not huge deal to to the economy overall and outweighed by benefits of being able to pursue global trade and outside of growth restricting single market.
    Except, according to sane, rationale people (ie Remainers) being inside the single market is superior for the UK's economy with necessary oversight by the ECJ resulting in negligible impingement upon sovereignty, while, according to swivel-eyed loons (ie Leavers), being inside the single market is inferior for the UK on account of the huge diminution of sovereignty and the concomitant oppressive yoke of the EU bureaucracy.
    The government realised (or was told) that there was no option to stay in the single market without the four freedoms. The trading benefits of the single market were expounded at length in the campaign, and the dangers of leaving it were also expounded at length by Osborne and Cameron amongst others. The voters decided to leave, and recent polling in the last few days shows that they would rather leave the single market than have the four freedoms, the government listened, which is kind of its job.
    Oh absolutely. That wasn't what I said in my post. I was just comparing the views of the sane, rationale folk with the swivel-eyed loons.
    I suspect the view looks a little different between working in the City for a finance company and driving a forklift in Stevenage. The former can appreciate how much better off the Single Market will make him, the later can't see how it will change his life at all, doesn't care if the first is richer or not, and is concerned about Eastern Europeans coming and offering to do his job for less money, or for more hours and pushing him into a part time job.

    You might want to consider that those "swivel-eyed loons" are making a perfectly rational decision based on the world as it appears from where they sit.
    Agreed - see the Cummings' blog post for someone who appreciates that decisions made by those affected are likely to be more economically rational than those who are wed to culture/emotions that complicate the matter.
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    tim80tim80 Posts: 99
    TOPPING said:

    169 Forklift Driver jobs in Stevenage.

    https://uk.jora.com/Forklift-jobs-in-Stevenage-District?utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=CI6uqtHSy9ECFQg6GwodAdwKXw

    One at random - £15-16/hr depending on experience.

    Like many Leaver "facts" they don't hold up to a moment's analysis.

    How does finding a job at £15-16 disprove the contention that their wages have been impacted by immigration???
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    Theresa to Corbyn 'I have a plan you havent a clue'
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited January 2017
    tim80 said:

    TOPPING said:

    169 Forklift Driver jobs in Stevenage.

    https://uk.jora.com/Forklift-jobs-in-Stevenage-District?utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=CI6uqtHSy9ECFQg6GwodAdwKXw

    One at random - £15-16/hr depending on experience.

    Like many Leaver "facts" they don't hold up to a moment's analysis.
    How does finding a job at £15-16 disprove the contention that their wages have been impacted by immigration???

    Because there are 169 job vacancies for forklift truck drivers. Do you think there would be as many vacancies if all the jobs had been taken by lower-wage-demanding furriners?

    Edit: 169 job vacancies for forklift truck drivers. In Stevenage.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    edited January 2017

    Theresa to Corbyn 'I have a plan you havent a clue'

    May mishandled that reply. She should have said "the Minister for Brexit briefed this House and took questions as I was briefing EU Ambassadors. A similar briefing took place in the othe place". Instead she totally ducked it and, rather uncertainly, came out with platitudes. A fail.

    EDIT: You would think she would be prepared for this question!
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    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. Th money

    2. Some people - a la Corbyn and those who have little knowledge of the EU - seem think that most EU regulation concerns workers rights. Not only has the Government not suggested trimming these, May explicitly said they would be protected yesterday. The point is that there are huge reams of regulation which the EU piles on, over and above what a functioning economy needs. In agriculture - there is the crazy 3 crop rule and much bureaucracy. In biotech there is a hostile environment to GM. In ports there is coming price controls. In tech there are about to be fines for platforms that carry too much American content. Data protection laws now mean costly requirements for companies to have data protection officers, as well as just following standards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

    tim80 said:

    There's been confusion in recent days about the UK's potential pursuit of a new economic model:

    1. That it means becoming an offshore economy, this is often coupled with the term 'tax haven'. That is not what anyone has suggested. Having low corporation tax (perahaps at Ireland's level) does not make a country the Caymen Islands. Low tax rate is distinct from ultra low rates and secrecy, and sometimes being a home to laundered money

    2. Some people - a lastandards. Etc.

    3. Low wages. Somehow this has joined the lexicon. It is unclear why lowering corporate tax and regulation would lower wages. If anything, the opposite

    If you build an economy that is designed to compete internationally on cost, then low wages are a part of that.

    Like Ireland?

    Yep, pretty much:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/super-rich-or-super-angry-where-are-you-on-ireland-s-income-pyramid-1.2104861

    And in Ireland there is no free at the point of use health service, even though the government has far lower defence spending obligations than the UK does.

This discussion has been closed.