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Given the current polling and lack of time and opportunities for the polling to change, it is likely Cameron and the Tories in a little under three months time will be out of Downing Street, which in all likelihood means there will be a vacancy at the top of the Tory party.

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nigel4england

Late on parade Mr. Eagles!

ydoethur

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

Hunt went to Charterhouse, so he's an Old Carthusian

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

Late on parade Mr. Eagles!

I set my alarm for 6.30am, I woke up closer to 8

CarlottaVance

Boris seems to think he may be in with a shout:

Boris Johnson says he intends to renounce his American citizenship to prove his "commitment to Britain".

He told the Sunday Times that his citizenship was "an accident of birth that has left me with this thing. I've got to find a way of sorting it out".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31475945

isam

Just pick Boris... No one cares about the bullingdon nonsense, he is the most popular politician in a generation, is proven to transcend class, ethnicity and gender, and if he was leader now they'd prob win a majority IMO

Yorkcity

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-ed-miliband-is-useless-why-are-some-newspapers-so-bothered-by-him-10046673.html

If the Conservatives are out of Downing Street in 3 months times , I imagine the papers will have some one in mind to continue bothering ED over Leveson.

So Hunt would be worth a punt.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

Hunt went to Charterhouse, so he's an Old Carthusian

Fair point, I stand corrected.

But he was also cleared of misconduct over BSkyB, it's just that the perception will linger. Similarly, a great many of the privately educated MPs are said reflexively to have been educated at Eton even when they weren't (cf another Hunt, Tristram, who is often accused of being an Old Etonian even though he went to University College School which is part of the informal 'Eton Group').

nigel4england

isam said:

Just pick Boris... No one cares about the bullingdon nonsense, he is the most popular politician in a generation, is proven to transcend class, ethnicity and gender, and if he was leader now they'd prob win a majority IMO

Totally agree, I'm not convinced yet they will get voted out but if they do then Boris is the only person who can get them back on track.

Indigo

Priti Patel. Womens Vote, Ethnic vote, reunites the core vote, reunite a lot of kippers. Costs a few Guardian Readers but frankly, who cares She would send the Guardian and the BBC (and a lot of the Labour Party) into a flat spin, minority woman right-winger, should they attack her on not, which of their various right-on constituencies do they want to risk offending.

AlastairMeeks

Who does George Osborne want to lead the Conservative party? If like me you believe that he does not think that he should do the job himself, you have to identify who he would in fact favour. Press reports have suggested Boris Johnson. Sajid Javid looks plausible too.

The recipient of the Chancellor's imprimatur would have a huge head start, given the power base that he has in the Parliamentary party.

isam

Indigo said:

Priti Patel. Womens Vote, Ethnic vote, reunites the core vote, reunite a lot of kippers. Costs a few Guardian Readers but frankly, who cares She would send the Guardian and the BBC (and a lot of the Labour Party) into a flat spin, minority woman right-winger, should they attack her on not, which of their various right-on constituencies do they want to risk offending.

She should go for mayor I reckon... London needs a right wing non white mayor... A left wing non white mayor would be the worst thing that could happen (I mean abbot, Khan or Lammy)

isam

nigel4england said:

isam said:

Just pick Boris... No one cares about the bullingdon nonsense, he is the most popular politician in a generation, is proven to transcend class, ethnicity and gender, and if he was leader now they'd prob win a majority IMO

Totally agree, I'm not convinced yet they will get voted out but if they do then Boris is the only person who can get them back on track.

Would be like brian cough being overlooked for England job if he doesn't get it.

MarqueeMark

Y

Indigo said:

Priti Patel. Womens Vote, Ethnic vote, reunites the core vote, reunite a lot of kippers. Costs a few Guardian Readers but frankly, who cares She would send the Guardian and the BBC (and a lot of the Labour Party) into a flat spin, minority woman right-winger, should they attack her on not, which of their various right-on constituencies do they want to risk offending.

and 80/1 - a fabulous trading bet. Plus the bonus of a safe Essex seat to recapture some of the mojo off UKIP.

Indigo

Jeremy Hunt is Mr Mogadon he isn't the man to put the party back together again and get the base back on side.

The key question would seem to be how stable the Labour government looks, do the Tories need someone who can rebuild the party and reconnect with the core vote, and try and win back some kippers, or do they need someone that will need to be ready to fight an election in a year or so.

Boris is clearly the best man to handle a snap election, but his Europhile tendencies and being even more socially liberal than Cameron is going to increase the splits within the party, and potentially drive more the parties right-wing off to Mr Farage.

Charles

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

I thought he was an Old Carthusian not an Old Etonian?

ydoethur

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

I thought he was an Old Carthusian not an Old Etonian?

Yes he is. I was wrong.

It does happen, more often than I would like...

Roger

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

Charles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

Hunt went to Charterhouse, so he's an Old Carthusian

Fair point, I stand corrected.

But he was also cleared of misconduct over BSkyB, it's just that the perception will linger. Similarly, a great many of the privately educated MPs are said reflexively to have been educated at Eton even when they weren't (cf another Hunt, Tristram, who is often accused of being an Old Etonian even though he went to University College School which is part of the informal 'Eton Group').

So you are saying that, on the left (because the right doesn't care about this sort of trivial thing) it okay to smear someone regardless of the facts?

isam

MarqueeMark said:

Y

Indigo said:

Priti Patel. Womens Vote, Ethnic vote, reunites the core vote, reunite a lot of kippers. Costs a few Guardian Readers but frankly, who cares She would send the Guardian and the BBC (and a lot of the Labour Party) into a flat spin, minority woman right-winger, should they attack her on not, which of their various right-on constituencies do they want to risk offending.

and 80/1 - a fabulous trading bet. Plus the bonus of a safe Essex seat to recapture some of the mojo off UKIP.

"Trading bet"

What isn't a trading bet?

Charles

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

I thought he was an Old Carthusian not an Old Etonian?

Yes he is. I was wrong.

It does happen, more often than I would like...

I think the inability to spell or pronounce the term will draw some of the sting from the attack!

MarqueeMark

Boris is brilliant in that he has somehow managed to cast off his Eton/Bullingdon roots and take a place in people's hearts as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. I'm not sure if that trick gets him to 10 Downing Street though.

AlastairMeeks

isam said:

nigel4england said:

isam said:

Just pick Boris... No one cares about the bullingdon nonsense, he is the most popular politician in a generation, is proven to transcend class, ethnicity and gender, and if he was leader now they'd prob win a majority IMO

Totally agree, I'm not convinced yet they will get voted out but if they do then Boris is the only person who can get them back on track.

Would be like brian cough being overlooked for England job if he doesn't get it.

Like Brian Clough, his past may be too controversial for the selectors.

Though personally I agree with you. Boris Johnson has warmth. The actual policies he would put forward would be irrelevant. He would win back a lot of the pissed off vote.

ydoethur

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible which is why he'll lose

Don't you ever pause to wonder though Roger whether Labour might also be seen by outsiders as the party of a privileged elite who are too close to the wealthy and powerful? That's the basic thesis of Oborne's Triumph of the Political Class, although his premises are in all fairness mostly wrong.

The real risk of this kind of story is that it leads your voters to not defect to the Tories or UKIP or even the Greens, but that it leads them to stay at home in disgust. A similar phenomenon partially accounted for the scale of the Tory defeat in 1997. Those voters do not seem to have ever returned to political activity, and they are being added to in large numbers to judge from the steadily falling turnout at local and even national elections.

That's bad for democracy and bad for politics generally. If people no longer value democracy, it dies a death of its own accord.

MarqueeMark

A practical question - does the next Budget which Osborne gives still have to be agreed in advance with the LibDems? Or is it effectively a manifesto Budget - vote Tory and this is what you will get?

BenM

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

Spot on. Noticeable lack of traction in the tale telling stories this morning. And this the reason why.

nigel4england

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

So now that plenty of Labour people have been outed as tax avoiders it is "missing the point"?

The stench of hypocrisy from unabashed Lefties like you is overwhelming.

Charles

MarqueeMark said:

A practical question - does the next Budget which Osborne gives still have to be agreed in advance with the LibDems? Or is it effectively a manifesto Budget - vote Tory and this is what you will get?

The Budget itself is meaningless - it's just a speech.

They would need LibDem agreement to pass a new Finance Act, but that's not going to happen...

ydoethur

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Hunt's also an Old Etonian, and I can't believe that he would be able to avoid questions about his behaviour over Murdoch's BSkyB bid as leader.

Javid and Hammond seem more likely.

Hunt went to Charterhouse, so he's an Old Carthusian

Fair point, I stand corrected.

But he was also cleared of misconduct over BSkyB, it's just that the perception will linger. Similarly, a great many of the privately educated MPs are said reflexively to have been educated at Eton even when they weren't (cf another Hunt, Tristram, who is often accused of being an Old Etonian even though he went to University College School which is part of the informal 'Eton Group').

So you are saying that, on the left (because the right doesn't care about this sort of trivial thing) it okay to smear someone regardless of the facts?

I think you misunderstood me. What I meant was that people have an image, when it comes to Jeremy Hunt, of a public schoolboy who was close to Rupert Murdoch. Whether or not that is factually correct (and as a matter of detail, it isn't entirely fair) it's hard to see him shaking that off as Leader of the Opposition. There is an old saying, you never get a second chance to make first impressions.

I don't suppose Ed Miliband as PM would be silly enough to press it, as it might well be counterproductive given that it's inaccurate. But then - he wouldn't need to. It's already established, and very damaging.

If you doubt that, it's worth googling some of the appalled reaction when he was made SoS for Health.

(Slightly edited)

MarqueeMark

Roger,

David Cameron has enacted a piece of legislation under which one of his backers gets £36m in Govt. subsidies. That crony then bungs a quarter of a million back to his party. I'm sure you are first to buy a ticket on the outrage bus.

Except... It is Ed Miliband who enacted the legislation. On wind farms. His backer who has got £36m in subsidies. His crony who has piled a quarter of a million back into Labour.

And yet, here the outrage bus is strangely empty.

You can perhaps see how some might think Ed Miliband an opportunistic llittle shit?

david_herdson

Nah, it'd be Boris. It's certainly true that it's rare for the Tories to pick the favourite except by arrangement (Howard), but this would be one of those exceptions. The simple reason is Miliband. If Cameron loses office then Miliband is PM and the next LotO needs to be an antiMiliband. That may help Javid a little but not Hammond who is an in-office continuity candidate only. Hammond will also be 64 by May 2020, which is a factor worth considering.

As others have said, the Eton/Bullingdon thing's been known about for ages and only matters to candidates who have no other backstory. For Boris, who's known as a senior politician in his own right, as well as a national character, that's far less important. It will be hard for Labour to frame him in those terms when he already has a very strong public profile.

That said, three months including and election campaign is plenty long enough to turn the polls around. Ask Iain Gray.

Indigo

nigel4england said:

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

So now that plenty of Labour people have been outed as tax avoiders it is "missing the point"?

The stench of hypocrisy from unabashed Lefties like you is overwhelming.

Let them have their fun, they are getting all excited about it, and its going to make damn all difference to how people vote. Voters get enraged about all sorts of things, voters vote on their job, their wallet, and their family.

Flockers_pb

Roger and BenM - there are none so blind as will not see. Miliband made a rash, I'll-considered and inappropriate attack that drew blood only because Lord Fink misplayed his hand. Now you are desperately trying to claim the game is over with Labour 1-0 ahead, but as these stories demonstrate, Miliband is open to the charge of hypocrisy. At some stage he will have to answer that charge. As I type, Marr is discussing it. This is not yet over.

And in the meantime the fact remains - the coalition government has done more than any other in history to tackle tax avoidance and has made great progress in closing loopholes which have enabled it for years. Labour's record on this is comparably poor.

isam

Javid no chance imo, people just wouldn't vote for a muslim to run the country with all the islamic terrorism going on

Flockers_pb

Balls very defensive on Marr.

MarqueeMark

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

A practical question - does the next Budget which Osborne gives still have to be agreed in advance with the LibDems? Or is it effectively a manifesto Budget - vote Tory and this is what you will get?

The Budget itself is meaningless - it's just a speech.

They would need LibDem agreement to pass a new Finance Act, but that's not going to happen...

Charles, thanks for that. So when Osborne stands up, he can say what he wants by way of political opportunism, and Clegg and Cable and Farron just have to chew on a wasp.... And the starting pistol for the election gets fired at that point. This is just the phoney war.

nigel4england

david_herdson said:

Nah, it'd be Boris. It's certainly true that it's rare for the Tories to pick the favourite except by arrangement (Howard), but this would be one of those exceptions. The simple reason is Miliband. If Cameron loses office then Miliband is PM and the next LotO needs to be an antiMiliband. That may help Javid a little but not Hammond who is an in-office continuity candidate only. Hammond will also be 64 by May 2020, which is a factor worth considering.

As others have said, the Eton/Bullingdon thing's been known about for ages and only matters to candidates who have no other backstory. For Boris, who's known as a senior politician in his own right, as well as a national character, that's far less important. It will be hard for Labour to frame him in those terms when he already has a very strong public profile.

That said, three months including and election campaign is plenty long enough to turn the polls around. Ask Iain Gray.

There is an elephant in the room regarding the upcoming GE, and many on here won't thank me for raising it, obviously I am referring to immigration. Or more specifically Rotherham.

I can't help but think the Tories believe they have an ace up their sleeve, or at least think they do, and this is it. I will be shocked if UKIP don't raise it, the right wing press take it up and many Labour votes disappear as a result of it. Where they go is another matter.

I would expect this to happen nearer the election so it stays in the public reckoning.

BenM

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Indigo

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

david_herdson

antifrank said:

isam said:

nigel4england said:

isam said:

Just pick Boris... No one cares about the bullingdon nonsense, he is the most popular politician in a generation, is proven to transcend class, ethnicity and gender, and if he was leader now they'd prob win a majority IMO

Totally agree, I'm not convinced yet they will get voted out but if they do then Boris is the only person who can get them back on track.

Would be like brian cough being overlooked for England job if he doesn't get it.

Like Brian Clough, his past may be too controversial for the selectors.

Though personally I agree with you. Boris Johnson has warmth. The actual policies he would put forward would be irrelevant. He would win back a lot of the pissed off vote.

In this case though, the Tory Party leadership is elected by the membership, not the magic circle, assuming that Boris would have enough support in parliament to make it into the final two for the run-off. As was shown with Portillo in 2001, that's not a given for a big name but there'd be outrage in the country if the MPs manipulated the vote in such a way as to exclude him, particularly given what did happen after the 2001 fiasco.

Roger

If Dave goes it would be because of defeat at the hands of Ed. We'd be looking at a Tory party in disarray. The fruitcakes. would peel off to UKIP and the rump would want nothing to do with the Bullingdon Boys or anyone who even sounded like them. They'd look very hard for a comprehensively educated woman in the mould of Maggie. As they tend to go for the Adams Family candidate (Cameron excluded) step forward Miss gravel voice herself Esther McVey

CarlottaVance

Today's YouGov - Worries about how they're funded - should reduce funding from:

Labour (Unions): 48
Conservatives (Business): 52

FluffyThoughts

MarqueeMark said:

Roger,

David Cameron has enacted a piece of legislation under which one of his backers gets £36m in Govt. subsidies. That crony then bungs a quarter of a million back to his party. I'm sure you are first to buy a ticket on the outrage bus.

Except... It is Ed Miliband who enacted the legislation. On wind farms. His backer who has got £36m in subsidies. His crony who has piled a quarter of a million back into Labour.

And yet, here the outrage bus is strangely empty.

You can perhaps see how some might think Ed Miliband an opportunistic llittle shit?

Wodger and BenM are affiable fellows but not the brightest. They probably need to borrow a few crayons from Stodge to articulate [slightly] better....

MarqueeMark

Indigo said:

nigel4england said:

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

So now that plenty of Labour people have been outed as tax avoiders it is "missing the point"?

The stench of hypocrisy from unabashed Lefties like you is overwhelming.

Let them have their fun, they are getting all excited about it, and its going to make damn all difference to how people vote. Voters get enraged about all sorts of things, voters vote on their job, their wallet, and their family.

The element that is fascinating there is jobs. We are getting close to full employment. So Ed can't say vote for me and I will give you work, you great masses of unemployed. I'm sure four years ago, Labour's provisional election plans would have had job creation as a central plank. Those five million unemployed need to be doing something.

But unemployment is not a weapon they can fire. Not even youth unemployment. Now they are reduced to saying that people have "the wrong type of jobs". Even though there is scant evidence to support that.

The more potent weapon on jobs is now held by the Tories. Don't let Labour wreck the economy. Don't let Labour put your job at risk....

nigel4england

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26875420

Don't think so Ben, try again.

CarlottaVance

BenM said:

Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Brave, given they've only just been printed......(oh, and you missed the Sun and the Mail)

Especially since, if just a choice between the two, more people blame Labour (21) than Coalition (14) for the HSBC mess. Of course most think 'they're equally to blame' (44) - do you think that was a result Ed was hoping for?

MarqueeMark

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

We Tories are more than happy to go toe-to-toe with you lefties about who has raised the most tax from the rich.

Exactly why did New Labour keep those Thatcherite tax bands in place at the top - whilst punching the poorest in the face by taking away the 10p tax band? Do tell...

Jonathan

Osborne, even with damage from an election loss, is in a league about the the rest IMO. Not necessarily a vote winner though. Boris for sFO.

Charles

MarqueeMark said:

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

A practical question - does the next Budget which Osborne gives still have to be agreed in advance with the LibDems? Or is it effectively a manifesto Budget - vote Tory and this is what you will get?

The Budget itself is meaningless - it's just a speech.

They would need LibDem agreement to pass a new Finance Act, but that's not going to happen...

Charles, thanks for that. So when Osborne stands up, he can say what he wants by way of political opportunism, and Clegg and Cable and Farron just have to chew on a wasp.... And the starting pistol for the election gets fired at that point. This is just the phoney war.

I'd assume that, by way of courtesy he will have share all sans deux lapins with his colleagues in government so they can plan their response in advance

Indigo

Roger said:

If Dave goes it would be because of defeat at the hands of Ed. We'd be looking at a Tory party in disarray. The fruitcakes. would peel off to UKIP and the rump would want nothing to do with the Bullingdon Boys or anyone who even sounded like them. They'd look very hard for a comprehensively educated woman in the mould of Maggie. As they tend to go for the Adams Family candidate (Cameron excluded) step forward Miss gravel voice herself Esther McVey

If they lose to Ed it will be obvious that the attempts to pick up the Guardianista vote were a failure, the party will therefore be looking to pull back the votes it lost to the kippers, so a move to the right is almost a forgone conclusion, a more euro-sceptic voice and tougher on immigration are also highly likely. It this stage it wont matter whether that plays well in the country or not, the imperative will be to rebuild the party, the next election platform can wait a bit.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I'd vote for Patel, partly because I have a small sum on her at 50/1 or thereabouts, but would also like to see future Prime Minister Justine Greening as next Conservative leader.

Boris being London mayor could be a problem for his leadership aspirations. Easy for his adversaries within and without the party to raise the issue of him being seen as epitomising a north/south divide because he's so identified with London, which could make it hard for him to make headway in the north.

CarlottaVance

Oh, and the pink cerise (or is it aubergine?) bus is a great hit:

Among women:

won't help engage women voters: 63
Is sexist: 48
Is Patronising: 59

nigel4england

Roger said:

If Dave goes it would be because of defeat at the hands of Ed. We'd be looking at a Tory party in disarray. The fruitcakes. would peel off to UKIP and the rump would want nothing to do with the Bullingdon Boys or anyone who even sounded like them. They'd look very hard for a comprehensively educated woman in the mould of Maggie. As they tend to go for the Adams Family candidate (Cameron excluded) step forward Miss gravel voice herself Esther McVey

You don't even know the facts about the woman the Left regard as the mortal enemy.

isam

I'd go as far to say boris is value at 5/2... If anyone wants to lay 3/1 I'll play

BenM

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

Doesn't matter. Osborne obsessed about lowering in spite of its popularity all round so the very real damage was done to the Tories.

Roger

Flockers

"And in the meantime the fact remains - the coalition government has done more than any other in history to tackle tax avoidance and has made great progress in closing loopholes which have enabled it for years. Labour's record on this is comparably poor."

I'm afraid this is just another case of "How Green were the Nazis". Nobody cares. Tories with £180,000,000 don't need to look for tax loopholes but for historical reasons that is what people believe about wealthy Tories. That's why they support the party. It'll take a lot longer than a few months to persuade people that they aren't like that anymore now it's Labour.....

Indigo

Jonathan said:

Osborne, even with damage from an election loss, is in a league about the the rest IMO. Not necessarily a vote winner though. Boris for sFO.

I think Osborne has enough self-awareness to know he isn't the natural front man, hence his agreement with Dave. He wants to be the power behind the throne, I am sure he could do a deal with Boris, but if not he will no doubt be looking for another charismatic smile-on-a-stick to support.

Robert_Of_Sheffield

On the political impact of tax evasion, I suspect the impact on Labour and the Tories of their senior figures evading tax is not symmetric.

There's a widespread assumption that the wealthy routinely evade tax, and that Tory MPs are drawn from their ranks. Thus, reports of tax evasion by senior Tories just confirm what people already believed, and those beliefs are already factored into the polls.

The same does not apply to Labour. The majority of their voters don't expect senior Labour figures to be involved in tax evasion: they expect them all to be dead set against it. They will not be pleased to learn otherwise. I doubt many of them will actually switch parties, but deciding it's not worth voting seems quite plausible.

Basically, news that just confirms people's expectations isn't likely to shift their voting intention much. News that goes against their expectations can be expected to have a significantly larger impact.

Yorkcity

If the Conse

Indigo said:

Roger said:

If Dave goes it would be because of defeat at the hands of Ed. We'd be looking at a Tory party in disarray. The fruitcakes. would peel off to UKIP and the rump would want nothing to do with the Bullingdon Boys or anyone who even sounded like them. They'd look very hard for a comprehensively educated woman in the mould of Maggie. As they tend to go for the Adams Family candidate (Cameron excluded) step forward Miss gravel voice herself Esther McVey

If they lose to Ed it will be obvious that the attempts to pick up the Guardianista vote were a failure, the party will therefore be looking to pull back the votes it lost to the kippers, so a move to the right is almost a forgone conclusion, a more euro-sceptic voice and tougher on immigration are also highly likely. It this stage it wont matter whether that plays well in the country or not, the imperative will be to rebuild the party, the next election platform can wait a bit.

I agree, some one yesterday was asking about the problems ED would have in government with his own party and dealing with the cuts.
The description you give regarding the Conservatives in opposition, will initially provide some cover.

BenM

As a Labour voter who wants Labour majority governments I hope it's Boris.

Easterross

Morning all and now we have the official Labour line from an indignant Ed Balls on Marr.

Labour tax avoidance is paying all your taxes and how dare anyone question them

Tory tax avoidance is evil and part of the agenda to cheat the system

Indigo

Roger said:

Flockers

"And in the meantime the fact remains - the coalition government has done more than any other in history to tackle tax avoidance and has made great progress in closing loopholes which have enabled it for years. Labour's record on this is comparably poor."

I'm afraid this is just another case of "How Green were the Nazis". Nobody cares. Tories with £180,000,000 don't need to look for tax loopholes but for historical reasons that is what people believe about wealthy Tories. They believe that's why they support the party. It'll take a lot longer than a few months to persuade people that they aren't like that anymore now it's Labour.....

Its also completely priced in, Tories doing what Tories do, I would be surprised if it moves any votes at all. Labour on the other hand are not supposed to do that sort of thing....

Flockers_pb

On topic - I can't see beyond Boris, for better or worse. Hammond has been a competent minister but he doesn't inspire in the way a modern political leader needs to. Osborne would not have the support if the Conservatives lose, and in any event recognises he is not a natural leader. I don't think May commands the respect required within the party. Javid and Patel need at least five more years in more senior roles. I suspect Hunt has reached his level but he may surprise. If it does come to pass that the Conservatives lose I hope both Cameron and Osborne take senior shadow cabinet roles.

Balls poor on Marr. Tetchy and struggling to articulate coherent points. Labour just haven't done the work. Their whole economic prospectus can be summarised as (1) a handful of measures to raise taxes on the very rich (expected to make a derisory contribution to the exchequer); (2) some fair cuts (unidentified); (3) the balance to be made up by growth. Fantasy economics.

IDS by contrast very thorough and on top of his brief. But by god he's hard to like.

isam

BenM said:

As a Labour voter who wants Labour majority governments I hope it's Boris.

Yeah he's a real vote loser in labour strongholds like london

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

I'm afraid this is just another case of "How Green were the Nazis". Nobody cares.

Roger - if the numbers on "reducing funding from" were:

Labour (Unions): 10
Conservatives (Business): 75

You might have a point, but they are:

Labour (Unions): 48
Conservatives (Business) :52

Its a HUGE issue in the heads of some of our friends on the left, but among the population at large....its not.

Roger

Robert

"There's a widespread assumption that the wealthy routinely evade tax, and that Tory MPs are drawn from their ranks. Thus, reports of tax evasion by senior Tories just confirm what people already believed, and those beliefs are already factored into the polls.

The same does not apply to Labour. The majority of their voters don't expect senior Labour figures to be involved in tax evasion: they expect them all to be dead set against it. They will not be pleased to learn otherwise. I doubt many of them will actually switch parties, but deciding it's not worth voting seems quite plausible.

Basically, news that just confirms people's expectations isn't likely to shift their voting intention much. News that goes against their expectations can be expected to have a significantly larger impact. "

That's why you're a tory supporter and not in marketing

GIN1138

Jonathan said:

Osborne, even with damage from an election loss, is in a league about the the rest IMO. Not necessarily a vote winner though. Boris for sFO.

Osborne's fate is tied to Cameron's. If Cameron get's booted out, Osborne is finished.

Vinny

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

MarqueeMark

BenM said:

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

Doesn't matter. Osborne obsessed about lowering in spite of its popularity all round so the very real damage was done to the Tories.

.

You haven't seen yet what Osborne has promised to do with the extra tax raised from the rich. I suspect he will do something eye-catching with it - something the floating voters will love.

And these are the top-end tax payers who we will lose as soon as soon as Ed and Ed get to work on the economy with their wrecking ball.

DecrepitJohnL

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

It was Osborne who leaked Osborne's budget.

john_zims

@Roger

'Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible'

So you obviously expect the manure to be effective when it covers Miliband.

nigel4england

MarqueeMark said:

BenM said:

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

Doesn't matter. Osborne obsessed about lowering in spite of its popularity all round so the very real damage was done to the Tories.

.

You haven't seen yet what Osborne has promised to do with the extra tax raised from the rich. I suspect he will do something eye-catching with it - something the floating voters will love.

And these are the top-end tax payers who we will lose as soon as soon as Ed and Ed get to work on the economy with their wrecking ball.

Bring back the .10p tax rate?

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

That's why you're a tory supporter and not in marketing

Enzymes in Persil

GIN1138

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

The 2012 budget fiasco was this governments nadir and to be honest Osborne brought it all on himself by arrogantly flitting off to America rather than concentrating on what he should have been doing.

The Lib-Dems were opportunistic and looking for revenge for the AV debacle, but Osborne's budget should have been water tight.

One fun aspect of Cameron and Osborne being kicked out in May will be that it'll be open season on Boy George. I won't be holding back, and nor' I suspect, will most people...

Jonathan

GIN1138 said:

Jonathan said:

Osborne, even with damage from an election loss, is in a league about the the rest IMO. Not necessarily a vote winner though. Boris for sFO.

Osborne's fate is tied to Cameron's. If Cameron get's booted out, Osborne is finished.

I wouldn't be so sure, I doubt anyone has told him that.

Roger

Indigo

"Its also completely priced in, Tories doing what Tories do, I would be surprised if it moves any votes at all. Labour on the other hand are not supposed to do that sort of thing...."

I agree. I doubt it'll persuade Tories to vote Labour but it'll probably persuade those on the left that it's worth voting-something a lot haven't been thinking for a while- it'll also drag a few SNP voters back into Labour's camp I'd imagine

nigel4england

GIN1138 said:

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

The 2012 budget fiasco was this governments nadir and to be honest Osborne brought it all on himself by arrogantly flitting off to America rather than concentrating on what he should have been doing.

The Lib-Dems were opportunistic and looking for revenge for the AV debacle, but Osborne's budget should have been water tight.

One fun aspect of Cameron and Osborne being kicked out in May will be that it'll be open season on Boy George. I won't be holding back, and nor' I suspect, will most people.

That will be the same Boy George that has done a superb job of getting the country back into growth without causing mass unemployment?

What will Balls do, take advice from Kruger and Blanchflower?

OllyT

nigel4england said:

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

So now that plenty of Labour people have been outed as tax avoiders it is "missing the point"?

The stench of hypocrisy from unabashed Lefties like you is overwhelming.

Whether there is hypocrisy or not is not really the point. The Tories are widely seen as the party of the rich, the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers etc so in political terms (which after all is what we are discussing) all their misdeeds does the Tories far greater harm than Labour, particularly at a time of austerity for most. Remember Cameron & Osborn have told us we are all in it together!.

CarlottaVance

Scottish Subsample watch:

Lab: 26
SNP: 37

Net doing well (OA)

Cameron: -29 (-9)
Miliband: -59 (-47)

So yes, the Labour Leader's net rating is twice as poor as the posh boy fop english Tory.......

BenM

MarqueeMark said:

BenM said:

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

Doesn't matter. Osborne obsessed about lowering in spite of its popularity all round so the very real damage was done to the Tories.

.

You haven't seen yet what Osborne has promised to do with the extra tax raised from the rich. I suspect he will do something eye-catching with it - something the floating voters will love.

And these are the top-end tax payers who we will lose as soon as soon as Ed and Ed get to work on the economy with their wrecking ball.

An 'eye catching' initiative just weeks before an election? Nice and ready to be rightly derided and dismissed as a pre election bribe!

Thing is Osborne is going to do it. He has no concept of self restraint.

kle4

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible which is why he'll lose

Those voters do not seem to have ever returned to political activity, and they are being added to in large numbers to judge from the steadily falling turnout at local and even national elections.
.

Turnout has been up for the last two GEs, and may well end up being up this time too. Which is not to say it is not still too low for my liking, or that we should not be concerned at lack of genuine engagement or understanding with the distant political elite, but it is not true to say turnout has been steadily falling a national elections.

The nationwide EU elections are still going down I think, but from an even lower starting point of course.

Indigo

OllyT said:

nigel4england said:

Roger said:

This attempt by rightwing newspapers and posters to show that labour also had tax evading donors not only misses the point but is actually counter productive. The voter's anger has nothing to do with who is financing which party. It is that the super rich in business big business and banking are avoiding tax.

To exaccerbate their anger this is being done while those at the bottom are being squeezed with ever tighter austerity measures. It is offensive to people's idea of fair play

The Tories WANT to be seen as the party of business and big business which they are. They also want to be seen as the party who squeeze benefit claimants which they are.

Trying to spread the manure more widely makes things worse. I wrote yesterday how Dave should get himself out of this but I suspect Grant Shapps arrogance makes this impossible

So now that plenty of Labour people have been outed as tax avoiders it is "missing the point"?

The stench of hypocrisy from unabashed Lefties like you is overwhelming.

Whether there is hypocrisy or not is not really the point. The Tories are widely seen as the party of the rich, the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers etc so in political terms (which after all is what we are discussing) all their misdeeds does the Tories far greater harm than Labour, particularly at a time of austerity for most. Remember Cameron & Osborn have told us we are all in it together!.

No, it really wont. Tory voters wont care, Labour voters weren't going to vote Tory anyway, it wont move the Tory vote at all.

BenM

How far beyond crossover were we supposed to be at this point?

another_richard

nigel4england said:

GIN1138 said:

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

The 2012 budget fiasco was this governments nadir and to be honest Osborne brought it all on himself by arrogantly flitting off to America rather than concentrating on what he should have been doing.

The Lib-Dems were opportunistic and looking for revenge for the AV debacle, but Osborne's budget should have been water tight.

One fun aspect of Cameron and Osborne being kicked out in May will be that it'll be open season on Boy George. I won't be holding back, and nor' I suspect, will most people.

That will be the same Boy George that has done a superb job of getting the country back into growth without causing mass unemployment?

What will Balls do, take advice from Kruger and Blanchflower?

The cult of growth.

Anyone can create 'growth', all you have to do is borrow more money and spend it.

And that's what this government has done.

Osborne is Continuity Brown.

another_richard

That was a very interesting piece from HGM yesturday.

Flockers_pb

Worth noting that after a week of "championship quality tennis" Ed Miliband's approval rating has climbed three points to a mighty -47. One point lower than where he was two week ago. That may be priced in, but let's see whether people drag themselves out of bed for him in May.

Cracking interview of IDS on Marr. A first class minister, master of his brief, thoroughly grilled in an informative and challenging interview. The comparison to the tetchy and low quality Balls interview was stark.

Sunil_Prasannan

It's that time of the week again!

ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), 15th Feb - 11 polls with total sample 12,946


Labour lead 1.5%, highest for four weeks!

LibDem lead over Greens 1.3%, highest for five weeks!

Lab 33.9 (+0.4)
Con 32.4 (+0.3)
UKIP 14.2 (-0.6)
LD 7.5 (+0.1)
Green 6.2 (-0.4)

john_zims

@Olly T

Whether there is hypocrisy or not is not really the point. The Tories are widely seen as the party of the rich, the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers etc so in political terms (which after all is what we are discussing) all their misdeeds does the Tories far greater harm than Labour,'

So Labour farts don't smell.

Roger

Carlotta

"Enzymes in Persil"

One day when it's quieter I'll tell you abut an ad I did in Paris for Unilever...did you work for them?

another_richard

Roger said:

Indigo

"Its also completely priced in, Tories doing what Tories do, I would be surprised if it moves any votes at all. Labour on the other hand are not supposed to do that sort of thing...."

I agree. I doubt it'll persuade Tories to vote Labour but it'll probably persuade those on the left that it's worth voting-something a lot haven't been thinking for a while- it'll also drag a few SNP voters back into Labour's camp I'd imagine

Also a few ex Labour now UKIP voters.

OllyT

nigel4england said:

david_herdson said:

Nah, it'd be Boris. It's certainly true that it's rare for the Tories to pick the favourite except by arrangement (Howard), but this would be one of those exceptions. The simple reason is Miliband. If Cameron loses office then Miliband is PM and the next LotO needs to be an antiMiliband. That may help Javid a little but not Hammond who is an in-office continuity candidate only. Hammond will also be 64 by May 2020, which is a factor worth considering.

As others have said, the Eton/Bullingdon thing's been known about for ages and only matters to candidates who have no other backstory. For Boris, who's known as a senior politician in his own right, as well as a national character, that's far less important. It will be hard for Labour to frame him in those terms when he already has a very strong public profile.

That said, three months including and election campaign is plenty long enough to turn the polls around. Ask Iain Gray.

There is an elephant in the room regarding the upcoming GE, and many on here won't thank me for raising it, obviously I am referring to immigration. Or more specifically Rotherham.

I can't help but think the Tories believe they have an ace up their sleeve, or at least think they do, and this is it. I will be shocked if UKIP don't raise it, the right wing press take it up and many Labour votes disappear as a result of it. Where they go is another matter.

I would expect this to happen nearer the election so it stays in the public reckoning.

I was disgusted by Rotherham and expect UKIP could use it to political advantage but I only see it resulting in some good 2nd places in the sort of safe Labour seats where this sort of issue will be a significant factor. Can't honestly see how the Tories will benefit unless Dave comes over all UKIP before May 7th. Generally speaking when the Tories have gone in that direction it has ended in failure, which, really is what the whole of Dave's "modernisation" agenda has been about. He may yet become that desperate before May but I doubt it. At the moment immigration is almost as big a political headache for the Tories as Labour.

chestnut

ComRes - wisdom of the crowd

Who will be PM?

Cameron 40, Miliband 22.

DavidL

Do I take it from this thread then that the consensus is forming that the election is over and Labour won?

If so, we need to look at who would be good as a leader of the opposition. This immediately rules out technocrats like Hammond who do not have the quick footedness or wit to ridicule Ed for the ever growing chaos that will ensue.

In my opinion when it comes to wit, the pithy phrase and the telling point Boris is in a class of his own in this generation. However good he might be at being PM he would be a brilliant LOTO.

Osborne is in a class of 2 as a political player in this country (Mandelson, the other not currently being on the field). He has loaded the party up with political appointments and supporters but I do not think he sees himself as the front man. That is probably wise but the only way there is going to be a serious competition for the leadership would be if he threw his weight behind someone else. And why would he do that?

I think Sajid Javid shows a lot of promise and may well be tory leader one day but he should be careful not to do a Hague and get it too soon. I would like him to be shadow chancellor with Boris as leader.

richardDodd

Skimming through the posts on here this morning it would appear that there is agreement about EdM being hypocritical re tax avoiders and that his followers support him....Strange people.

kle4

BenM said:

MarqueeMark said:

BenM said:

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reen't sticking.

Labour tai 13 years they were in power.

Doesn'te to the Tories.

.

You haven't secking ball.

An 'eye catching' initiative just weeks before an election? Nice and ready to be rightly derided and dismissed as a pre election bribe!

Thing is Osborne is going to do it. He has no concept of self restraint.

He might have a concept of it, but when you are going to be forced to rely on a last minute significant swing, you have to risk your bribe being labelled a bribe through a lack of alternate options.

CarlottaVance said:

Scottish Subsample watch:

Lab:9 (-47)

So yes, the Labour Leader's net rating is twice as poor as the posh boy fop english Tory.......

Remarkable stuff indeed. And yet I am sure Labour itself will still do far far better in Scotland than the Tories, so what good does it do the Tories? Sure it's nice in one sense Labour will find it harder to get a majority because Miliband is liked even less than Cameron there, but the Tories still aren't really directly benefiting from it.

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

Entered the government to oppose it? For a party which set out to do that they have been on the whole pretty reliable coalition partners, ones which never pushed things to a point which forced a split between the two parties to be necessitated. Cameron's had more trouble with his own backbenchers than he has the LDs.

TCPoliticalBetting

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2953843/It-s-liberal-left-poppycock-Ukip-fury-C4-predicts-race-riots-Farage-wins-election.html

If this is true, it is such a blatant unfair programme from C4 that I would vote UKIP if they had a good chance in my Constituency.

GIN1138

nigel4england said:

GIN1138 said:

Vinny said:

The above comments are an accurate view of events concerning Tory poll ratings. Today, commentators seem intriques by the notion of the 'voteless' recovery.
In fact the country at large made its decision on the present Government at the time of the Granny Tax when the sense of disillusionment was tangible. In turn, that can be laid at the door of the LibDems who leaked the Osborne budget beforehand and who enabled the Left to prepare its response. The end of the present administration, if it does (as indeed it will) end in May, can be laid squarely with the LibDems who entered Government in order to oppose it, rather than share it. When the time comes I hope that the LibDems are consigned to the trashcan of history and that neither of the other two main parties will ever deal with them.

The 2012 budget fiasco was this governments nadir and to be honest Osborne brought it all on himself by arrogantly flitting off to America rather than concentrating on what he should have been doing.

The Lib-Dems were opportunistic and looking for revenge for the AV debacle, but Osborne's budget should have been water tight.

One fun aspect of Cameron and Osborne being kicked out in May will be that it'll be open season on Boy George. I won't be holding back, and nor' I suspect, will most people.

That will be the same Boy George that has done a superb job of getting the country back into growth without causing mass unemployment?

What will Balls do, take advice from Kruger and Blanchflower?

Osborne may or may not have done a reasonable job of getting the country back to growth (I'm not an economist) but the problem is that, like Cameron, he seems to be pretty useless at actually doing politics... Yet he think's he's some sort of "master strategist"

Anyway, this is all for after 7th May...

___Bobajob___

Just catching up on the polling.

Looks like there has been a small but clear shift to Labour.

Is this what @Paul_Mid_Beds and others were referring to when they regularly forecast a St Valentine's Day Polling Massacre?

MarqueeMark

BenM said:

MarqueeMark said:

BenM said:

Indigo said:

BenM said:

Tories also tainted by reduction of 50p rate. Another reason the charges in the whinge fests in the Torygraph and Sunday Times aren't sticking.

Labour tainted by it being a 40% rate for 98% of the 13 years they were in power.

Doesn't matter. Osborne obsessed about lowering in spite of its popularity all round so the very real damage was done to the Tories.

.

You haven't seen yet what Osborne has promised to do with the extra tax raised from the rich. I suspect he will do something eye-catching with it - something the floating voters will love.

And these are the top-end tax payers who we will lose as soon as soon as Ed and Ed get to work on the economy with their wrecking ball.

An 'eye catching' initiative just weeks before an election? Nice and ready to be rightly derided and dismissed as a pre election bribe!

Thing is Osborne is going to do it. He has no concept of self restraint.

You want a naked piece of pre-election budget posturing? Exhibit A - Labour's 2010 50p top income tax rate. They somehow hadn't quite got round to this measure - a measure we since hear was essential to the core of their very being - in the previous 13 years...

George is less interested in self-restraint, far more about self-preservation. Time to bring out the rabbit hat.

isam

TCPoliticalBetting said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2953843/It-s-liberal-left-poppycock-Ukip-fury-C4-predicts-race-riots-Farage-wins-election.html

If this is true, it is such a blatant unfair programme from C4 that I would vote UKIP if they had a good chance in my Constituency.

It's true, and conservatives on here last night were saying it was fair enough