politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osbo’s Autumn statement – Ladbrokes first in with their buz
The Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN autumn statement bingo. Will Osbo use any of these? pic.twitter.com/4eHNuohx43
Comments
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Tough decisions and hard choices look nailed on there. If only ladbrokes would let me have an account!!!0
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Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.0 -
Long term economic plan has to be a shoo-in, doesn't it? 1/10?0
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Maybe Osborne could put £1billion on "#CameronMustGo" and then he'd wipe out the deficit (for this year at least).0
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But it doesn't make sense. They can't expect people to believe that the same policies are going to mean drastically different results just because it's different people in charge.CD13 said:Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.0 -
I'd only consider "hard choices" as he said it last year and he may want to mix it up a bit instead of saying "difficult decisions" a million times.0
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Peter Kellner knocks down another PB shiboleth. See "Lib Dem defectors will win it for Labour" ad nauseam .
"No longer. Uniform swing is now worse than useless. It is positively misleading. In particular, Labour can no longer hope to emerge as the largest party next May, even if it trails Conservatives significantly in votes."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
Coming soon - If Labour win with a ridiculously low % of the vote it will impact on the politics of the situation after the election.0 -
Re. Kellner's comments, there hasn't been a sign of any incumbency boost for the Conservatives in the Ashcroft marginal polls so far. One reason for that could be that he doesn't name the candidates, but the Lib Dems seem to be getting the boost without candidates being named.0
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Of course they can. People can be very stupid -Labour have depended on that fact for decades.Danny565 said:
But it doesn't make sense. They can't expect people to believe that the same policies are going to mean drastically different results just because it's different people in charge.CD13 said:Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.
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You have to factor in Ed's fairness and intellectual self-confidence. Essentially it will be like Jesus running the country, everything will be wonderful.Danny565 said:
But it doesn't make sense. They can't expect people to believe that the same policies are going to mean drastically different results just because it's different people in charge.CD13 said:Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.0 -
Intellectual self-confidence.CD13 said:Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.
Exhibit A - the incredible shrinking man PPB.0 -
No. The concept is a shoo-in, but the exact words aren't. He might say something like 'our long term plan for the economy and the country is working'. 1/10 is too skinny IMO.OblitusSumMe said:Long term economic plan has to be a shoo-in, doesn't it? 1/10?
As I posted on the previous thread, I think 'Stonehenge' might well be value, and regretfully 'hard-working families'.0 -
I hope he walks on water more elegantly than he eats a bacon sandwich.glw said:
You have to factor in Ed's fairness and intellectual self-confidence. Essentially it will be like Jesus running the country, everything will be wonderful.Danny565 said:
But it doesn't make sense. They can't expect people to believe that the same policies are going to mean drastically different results just because it's different people in charge.CD13 said:Danny,
"Yes, he has. They STILL don't seem to have realised they can't simultaneously attack the government for their failures AND promise to continue with almost all of their policies at the same time."
But that's what they are doing - on the basis they're cuddlier.0 -
The obvious problem with the Kellner piece is that the main objection to UNS relies on doing UNS on Scotland. On current polling Scotland sees some big changes, which is the kind of situation UNS handles badly.
The incumbency point is also true, but it also applied in previous elections where UNS has been reasonably good. Maybe incumbency tends to cancel out some other effect that would serve to understate the gains of the advancing party.0 -
Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all0 -
"investing £170 million on the A57, A628 and A628 trans-Pennine route, including a bypass for the village of Mottram - in addition, we will begin a study into the feasibility of building a trans-Pennine tunnel to address the strategic gap between Sheffield and Manchester, and would transform capacity and reduce congestion whilst still preserving the tranquillity of the Peak District"
Halle-fucking luujah0 -
On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.0 -
Do we have to show proof of any bet we say we have had now?
Just asking after the Spanish inquisition I got from OGH and Bandit1 yesterday re Thurrock
First I was accused of after timing, then told it was an "incredible" claim to have had that much on, then I was asked to prove I had placed the bet, then when I did I was told I must be a massive mug to be able to get it on
No pleasing some people, I did tell everyone a long time ago that this 4/5 shot was a good bet at 16s
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They're just jealous!isam said:Do we have to show proof of any bet we say we have had now?
Just asking after the Spanish inquisition I got from OGH and Bandit1 yesterday re Thurrock
First I was accused of after timing, then told it was an "incredible" claim to have had that much on, then I was asked to prove I had placed the bet, then when I did I was told I must be a massive mug to be able to get it on
No pleasing some people, I did tell everyone a long time ago that this 4/5 shot was a good bet at 16s0 -
Yes, I noticed that too - Some Scottish assumptions:edmundintokyo said:The obvious problem with the Kellner piece is that the main objection to UNS relies on doing UNS on Scotland. On current polling Scotland sees some big changes, which is the kind of situation UNS handles badly.
The incumbency point is also true, but it also applied in previous elections where UNS has been reasonably good. Maybe incumbency tends to cancel out some other effect that would serve to understate the gains of the advancing party.
The Lib Dem vote will collapse completely in the central belt, assume 0.5% for all current SLAB held seats in the belt.
It will hold up better than UNS suggests in highlands and islands.
The SNP surge will be greatest, and correlate to deprivation in the central belt (Especially Glasgow and surroundings) - which means the biggest swings should be in the safest Labour seats (GLasgow North East e.g.) but those are also the hardest Labour seats to take.
It's bloody tricky to call.0 -
I'd take "Hard working families who do the right thing" at 6/1.Richard_Nabavi said:
No. The concept is a shoo-in, but the exact words aren't. He might say something like 'our long term plan for the economy and the country is working'. 1/10 is too skinny IMO.OblitusSumMe said:Long term economic plan has to be a shoo-in, doesn't it? 1/10?
As I posted on the previous thread, I think 'Stonehenge' might well be value, and regretfully 'hard-working families'.
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Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
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Is Europe Too Rigid To Survive?
"New research from a group of economists -- Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales -- paints a grim picture of the European project from the perspective of its participants. Analyzing four decades of data from the Eurobarometer opinion survey, they find that three events -- the 1992 Maastricht treaty, the 2004 enlargement to Eastern Europe, and the 2010 Eurozone crisis -- had the most negative effect on voters' perceptions of the European Union. In each case, the survey results suggest that Europeans perceived the events as driving further integration and didn't like what they saw.
Meanwhile, European leaders kept preparing for more integration despite the growing dissatisfaction. Amazingly, their obliviousness to public sentiment appears to be precisely what the early architects of European integration desired.
"Europe will be forged in crises,” Monnet wrote in 1976, “and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.”
Supporters of European integration talked about creating an unstoppable “chain reaction.” Turning back, even temporarily, would never be an option. The great strength of the euro, as German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt saw it, was that “nobody can leave it without damaging his own country and his own economy in a severe way.”
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-28/is-europe-too-rigid-to-survive0 -
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.0 -
In the past I've asked Labour supporters who criticise Osborne to say whether the criticism is that he cut too far and fast, or not far and fast enough. Never mind the magnitude of his alleged mistake, just the sign will do. No answer, of course. They haven't the faintest clue.glw said:
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.0 -
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.0 -
ALso Re: SNP gains off of Labour - Sturgeon has said she will not "prop up" a "Tory Gov't", her words used seem to hint very strongly at confidence and supply for Labour.
If you take the final chart of Kellner's chart as the outcome then the ONLY gov't that is realistically possible in that scenario is Labour with SNP confidence and supply. And Labour are only not becoming the largest party because of direct losses to the SNP - which also means to my mind that the Cons getting most seats doesn't necessarily mean they will form the Gov't.0 -
Twitter
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells now50 seconds ago
New post: Update on the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster poll http://bit.ly/1HRvgaj0 -
I think it would work for UKIP: i.e. it would provide evidence of the LibLabCon.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
But I don't think it would work for anyone else.
Certainly, why would Cameron (or Milliband) like to play second fiddle to the other? (And electorates rarely thank the smaller parts of coalitions - see Germany for example.)0 -
Can't see it happening.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.0 -
You can see Ed Balls and George Osborne agreeing on a budget?anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
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Oops...fitalass said:Twitter
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells now50 seconds ago
New post: Update on the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster poll http://bit.ly/1HRvgaj
Given the headline-grabbing nature of the result, you'd have thought they'd have double-checked it. I seem to recall someone here (Pulpstar, if memory serves me correctly) picking up that oddity immediately.0 -
Re: Louise (van der) Bours and Tim(ur) Aker
Has any Tory here criticised that bear for taking the English name 'Paddington' yet?
Is it because he wishes to hide his South American ursine roots, blah blah blah, BNP-lite, blah blah blah, de-toxifies Tories, blah blah blah....0 -
You don't even need a functioning memory to find Labour's solutions disastrous, you merely have to look over the Channel and see what a mess their French friend, Hollande, is currently making of his country.glw said:
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.
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They would need the Lib Dems too in order to have a working majority.Pulpstar said:ALso Re: SNP gains off of Labour - Sturgeon has said she will not "prop up" a "Tory Gov't", her words used seem to hint very strongly at confidence and supply for Labour.
If you take the final chart of Kellner's chart as the outcome then the ONLY gov't that is realistically possible in that scenario is Labour with SNP confidence and supply. And Labour are only not becoming the largest party because of direct losses to the SNP - which also means to my mind that the Cons getting most seats doesn't necessarily mean they will form the Gov't.0 -
Yes: but it does provide for a second election within a year, and all the betting opportunities that go with it.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
Could Rochester go: Conservative -> UKIP -> Conservative -> UKIP all in the space of a year? It's by no means impossible.0 -
Have to say well played to @MarkSenior. He spotted this almost instantlyfitalass said:Twitter
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells now50 seconds ago
New post: Update on the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster poll http://bit.ly/1HRvgaj0 -
The only circumstance where we would have a grand coalition is World War 3 I think.0
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Told you so at the time as soon as I looked at the tables .Richard_Nabavi said:
Oops...fitalass said:Twitter
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells now50 seconds ago
New post: Update on the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster poll http://bit.ly/1HRvgaj0 -
I think the fixed term parliament act makes that less of a cert.rcs1000 said:
Yes: but it does provide for a second election within a year, and all the betting opportunities that go with it.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
Could Rochester go: Conservative -> UKIP -> Conservative -> UKIP all in the space of a year? It's by no means impossible.
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You mean the same Hollande that is slashing public spending?MonikerDiCanio said:
You don't even need a functioning memory to find Labour's solutions disastrous, you merely have to look over the Channel and see what a mess their French friend, Hollande, is currently making of his country.glw said:
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.0 -
No, wasn't me - hat tip to @MarkSenior on this one.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oops...fitalass said:Twitter
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells now50 seconds ago
New post: Update on the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster poll http://bit.ly/1HRvgaj
Given the headline-grabbing nature of the result, you'd have thought they'd have double-checked it. I seem to recall someone here (Pulpstar, if memory serves me correctly) picking up that oddity immediately.0 -
Of course their answer is that when Osborne's ahead of target it's "too fast, hurting the poor", or for even more hyperbolic crap "hurting the disabled", and when he's behind it's "too slow, hurting hard working families".Richard_Nabavi said:In the past I've asked Labour supporters who criticise Osborne to say whether the criticism is that he cut too far and fast, or not far and fast enough. Never mind the magnitude of his alleged mistake, just the sign will do. No answer, of course. They haven't the faintest clue.
What would Labour actually do instead? *dead silence*
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To be honest, Isam, I thought you were wrong to respond by publishing the evidence.isam said:Do we have to show proof of any bet we say we have had now?
Just asking after the Spanish inquisition I got from OGH and Bandit1 yesterday re Thurrock
First I was accused of after timing, then told it was an "incredible" claim to have had that much on, then I was asked to prove I had placed the bet, then when I did I was told I must be a massive mug to be able to get it on
No pleasing some people, I did tell everyone a long time ago that this 4/5 shot was a good bet at 16s
Everybody has the right to be believed until they are demonstrated to be dishonest. If anybody here doubted my honesty I would just tell them not to bother addressing posts to me, and I would obviously stop dealing with them. Why would you want to correspond with somebody who thinks you are a liar? By posting the evidence, you kind of acknowledged their supposed right to call your integrity in question.
Bandit appears to be a new poster and unaware of the usual courtesies. He would also be unaware that you are one of the more serious punters posting regularly here. For that reason you might want to cut him a bit of slack, although personally I'd be more inclined to cut him dead.0 -
Yes. Mr Osborne's budgets haven't been noticeably different from Mr Darling's.Socrates said:
You can see Ed Balls and George Osborne agreeing on a budget?anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.0 -
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Isn't it funny how Ed's gone quiet about the "Hollande alternative"?MonikerDiCanio said:You don't even need a functioning memory to find Labour's solutions disastrous, you merely have to look over the Channel and see what a mess their French friend, Hollande, is currently making of his country.
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Yes, the Socialist who ran out of other people's money. Quelle surprise!Danny565 said:
You mean the same Hollande that is slashing public spending?MonikerDiCanio said:
You don't even need a functioning memory to find Labour's solutions disastrous, you merely have to look over the Channel and see what a mess their French friend, Hollande, is currently making of his country.glw said:
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.
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A Con/Lab government would be called a National government. We would then be called on to "put our shoulder to the wheel" and "our nose to the grindstone" in the national interest.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
It would be a disaster for the UK and democracy.
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Anyone know anything about Norwich South, and whether the Greens are in with a shot of taking it?0
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Yes, that's the one. The same would happen under Ed M - an initial backtracking on deficit reduction, followed by an economic and market reaction, followed by an ignominious panic U-turn which will end up damaging public services far more than sticking to Osborne's well-judged plans.Danny565 said:You mean the same Hollande that is slashing public spending?
We saw a similar thing under Callaghan.0 -
Quite right.Peter_the_Punter said:Everybody has the right to be believed until they are demonstrated to be dishonest. If anybody here doubted my honesty I would just tell them not to bother addressing posts to me, and I would obviously stop dealing with them. Why would you want to correspond with somebody who thinks you are a liar? By posting the evidence, you kind of acknowledged their supposed right to call your integrity in question.
Don't get cross, get smug!0 -
One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the past I've asked Labour supporters who criticise Osborne to say whether the criticism is that he cut too far and fast, or not far and fast enough. Never mind the magnitude of his alleged mistake, just the sign will do. No answer, of course. They haven't the faintest clue.glw said:
Go back a few years and Labour were complaining about unemployment, no growth (remember the double and triple dips that weren't), and cutting too fast. Now it's all the wrong kind of jobs and growth, and Labour are so repugnantly shameless that they have the nerve to complain that the deficit is only half gone.MonikerDiCanio said:
Miliband's "wrong kind of growth" spin is as ludicrous as British Rail's "wrong type of snow" excuse. He's useless.fitalass said:Ed Miliband still trying to spin away economic growth under this Government as the wrong kind of recovery despite his own Government's recent record in Office.
BBC - Miliband: Government's economic failures cost us all
How anyone with a functioning memory can take Labour seriously is beyond me.0 -
If a stable government cannot be formed, then there are elections. I don't believe there would be a stable government under the Kellner scenario.anotherDave said:
I think the fixed term parliament act makes that less of a cert.rcs1000 said:
Yes: but it does provide for a second election within a year, and all the betting opportunities that go with it.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
Could Rochester go: Conservative -> UKIP -> Conservative -> UKIP all in the space of a year? It's by no means impossible.
Historically, electorates punish those who are seen to act in their narrow, sectional interests. So, if the Libs are seen as preventing a government from being formed, they would be punished. (I don't know if that would be true for the SNP too.)0 -
Except this just isn't what happened. Hollande started cutting spending within months of being elected:Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that's the one. The same would happen under Ed M - an initial backtracking on deficit reduction, followed by an economic and market reaction, followed by an ignominious panic U-turn which will end up damaging public services far more than sticking to Osborne's well-judged plans.Danny565 said:You mean the same Hollande that is slashing public spending?
We saw a similar thing under Callaghan.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/10/francois-hollande-cut-public-spending
The French experience certainly is a cautionary tale, in that it shows exactly why slashing spending and hysteria about how "we have to cut the deficit!!!!!11" is NOT a good idea. (Well, to be fair to the PBTories, it admittedly does also show it's a bloody good job we stayedout of the Euro.)0 -
In the midst of the child abuse scandals. This made me smile - maybe it should not?
"“I also did panto in Stockport and asked a little boy, who would only have been seven or eight, what his name was.
“He looked up at me, and replied: ‘If you touch my nuts, you’re dead’. What can you say? I wanted to scream."
https://uk.tv.yahoo.com/lionel-blair-won-t-work-with-children-anymore-because-of-potential--false-claims--–-daily-tv-round-up-114226593.html0 -
Indeed, Richard!Richard_Nabavi said:
Quite right.Peter_the_Punter said:Everybody has the right to be believed until they are demonstrated to be dishonest. If anybody here doubted my honesty I would just tell them not to bother addressing posts to me, and I would obviously stop dealing with them. Why would you want to correspond with somebody who thinks you are a liar? By posting the evidence, you kind of acknowledged their supposed right to call your integrity in question.
Don't get cross, get smug!
Btw, I noticed your reference to Labour supporters' reticence regarding their alternative suggestions to Osborne's economic strategy. I think I qualify as one of the Labour Herd, so may I place it on record that I think Ossie has done a pretty good job as Chancellor in all the (difficult) circumstances.
If I have a criticisms, it would be of unfunded tax cuts but obviously I understand that it's politics and he has to satisfy a broad spectrum of public and Party opinion, so it's all part of the game, regrettable though that may sometimes be.
But no, I wouldn't expect a Labour Government, if it wins a majority next May, to behave a whole lot differently - although it would obviously dress it up differently!
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I think he's cut spending as fast as was reasonably possible without crashing into the rocks on the other side. You're right that we need to keep going on getting public spending down quite a bit further, although the political difficulty is that, with the health costs and care for the elderly necessarily taking up more and more resource, that leaves the remaining spending under even greater pressure.Socrates said:One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.
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Yes, it has been said before but the lazy b******* is undoubtedly the most neglected segment of the population and will probably decide the next election.Richard_Nabavi said:OblitusSumMe said:Long term economic plan has to be a shoo-in, doesn't it? 1/10?
As I posted on the previous thread, I think 'Stonehenge' might well be value, and regretfully 'hard-working families'.0 -
A LibLabNat coalition could last for a while, although I imagine they would lose support precipitously in England.rcs1000 said:
If a stable government cannot be formed, then there are elections. I don't believe there would be a stable government under the Kellner scenario.anotherDave said:
I think the fixed term parliament act makes that less of a cert.rcs1000 said:
Yes: but it does provide for a second election within a year, and all the betting opportunities that go with it.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
Could Rochester go: Conservative -> UKIP -> Conservative -> UKIP all in the space of a year? It's by no means impossible.
Historically, electorates punish those who are seen to act in their narrow, sectional interests. So, if the Libs are seen as preventing a government from being formed, they would be punished. (I don't know if that would be true for the SNP too.)0 -
A lot of teachers will tell you they encounter similarly bewildering situations daily.TCPoliticalBetting said:In the midst of the child abuse scandals. This made me smile - maybe it should not?
"“I also did panto in Stockport and asked a little boy, who would only have been seven or eight, what his name was.
“He looked up at me, and replied: ‘If you touch my nuts, you’re dead’. What can you say? I wanted to scream."
https://uk.tv.yahoo.com/lionel-blair-won-t-work-with-children-anymore-because-of-potential--false-claims--–-daily-tv-round-up-114226593.html
When a child is in pain or grief stricken, the teacher dare not offer so much as a comforting squeeze around the shoulders for fear it may be misrepresented. In this respect, you really do feel for them, and begin to despise the sanctimonious humbugs who have reduced us this.0 -
Except Holland did NOT cut spending..Danny565 said:
Except this just isn't what happened. Hollande started cutting spending within months of being elected:Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that's the one. The same would happen under Ed M - an initial backtracking on deficit reduction, followed by an economic and market reaction, followed by an ignominious panic U-turn which will end up damaging public services far more than sticking to Osborne's well-judged plans.Danny565 said:You mean the same Hollande that is slashing public spending?
We saw a similar thing under Callaghan.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/10/francois-hollande-cut-public-spending
The French experience certainly is a cautionary tale, in that it shows exactly why slashing spending and hysteria about how "we have to cut the deficit!!!!!11" is NOT a good idea. (Well, to be fair to the PBTories, it admittedly does also show it's a bloody good job we stayedout of the Euro.)
See chart http://tinyurl.com/lagsgsf
Says one thing: 2013 spending was more than 2012..0 -
I would love to see a graph of spending per capita in each of major segments by country. There's a whole bunch of countries, including wealthy ones like Switzerland and poorer ones like the Baltics, who spend a lot less as a share of GDP. Even our own economy was down at 41% after Major, despite us having a smaller GDP. Yet by all reports, further cuts in our departments are incredibly difficult, and we've been eroding our defence capabilities etc. Where's all the money going?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he's cut spending as fast as was reasonably possible without crashing into the rocks on the other side. You're right that we need to keep going on getting public spending down quite a bit further, although the political difficulty is that, with the health costs and care for the elderly necessarily taking up more and more resource, that leaves the remaining spending under even greater pressure.Socrates said:One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.0 -
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.
We could cut our overseas aid contributions in half.
We could tell the EU we are paying them 4 billion next year, not ten.
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£75 billion on interest on debt this year, for a start...Socrates said:
I would love to see a graph of spending per capita in each of major segments by country. There's a whole bunch of countries, including wealthy ones like Switzerland and poorer ones like the Baltics, who spend a lot less as a share of GDP. Even our own economy was down at 41% after Major, despite us having a smaller GDP. Yet by all reports, further cuts in our departments are incredibly difficult, and we've been eroding our defence capabilities etc. Where's all the money going?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he's cut spending as fast as was reasonably possible without crashing into the rocks on the other side. You're right that we need to keep going on getting public spending down quite a bit further, although the political difficulty is that, with the health costs and care for the elderly necessarily taking up more and more resource, that leaves the remaining spending under even greater pressure.Socrates said:One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.0 -
PLEASE can Labour use Hollande as a reason why it'd be safe to vote for them. PLEASE.0
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Yes quite. The U-turn started quite early, and is proceeding now. In addition, he's trying to execute a panic hand-brake turn on soaking the rich and wrecking business, so far with limited success because he's already lost so much credibility.Danny565 said:Except this just isn't what happened. Hollande started cutting spending within months of being elected
Of course he has one huge advantage over a putative PM Miliband - he actually has the power. If, God forbid, we do end up with Ed in No 10, he'll either have a tiny majority, or even worse be dependent on pork-barrelling support from minor parties. In either scenario it's going to be near-impossible to make difficult decisions, until forced to by some major crisis as Callaghan was.
Incidentally I heard from a source senior in the Labour Party (a minister in the last government) that senior figures in the party are indeed terrified at the prospect of a Miliband government, as I have long suggested must be the case. One of the specific criticisms was that Ed M doesn't listen to anyone. Admittedly this was from a 'Blairite', but presumably the concern is widely shared in the party. If it's not they are prize idiots.0 -
In respect of the planned raising of the higher-rate allowance, announced at the Conference in October, it was a curious piece of political theatre. The Tories dressed it up as a tax cut (good), and Labour joined in by railing against it as a tax cut (bad). In fact it was pretty much neutral, not very different to index-linking the allowances.Peter_the_Punter said:If I have a criticisms, it would be of unfunded tax cuts but obviously I understand that it's politics and he has to satisfy a broad spectrum of public and Party opinion, so it's all part of the game, regrettable though that may sometimes be.
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Which is far too high, of course, but our stock of debt isn't especially out of line with international benchmarks, so can't explain the gap between us and others.foxinsoxuk said:
£75 billion on interest on debt this year, for a start...Socrates said:
I would love to see a graph of spending per capita in each of major segments by country. There's a whole bunch of countries, including wealthy ones like Switzerland and poorer ones like the Baltics, who spend a lot less as a share of GDP. Even our own economy was down at 41% after Major, despite us having a smaller GDP. Yet by all reports, further cuts in our departments are incredibly difficult, and we've been eroding our defence capabilities etc. Where's all the money going?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he's cut spending as fast as was reasonably possible without crashing into the rocks on the other side. You're right that we need to keep going on getting public spending down quite a bit further, although the political difficulty is that, with the health costs and care for the elderly necessarily taking up more and more resource, that leaves the remaining spending under even greater pressure.Socrates said:One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.0 -
Assuming that Ashcroft has his weighting correct, his June 2014 constituency poll for Norwich South gave the Greens a good chance of coming second, in a crowded field more than 15 points behind Labour.Danny565 said:Anyone know anything about Norwich South, and whether the Greens are in with a shot of taking it?
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Reading through the announcement of a major road-building programme, and Danny Alexander's enthusiastic support for it, with a sense of disbelief.
I think Danny Alexander has just scuppered the LibDems' chances of recovering any of the support they lost to the Greens. I can't believe it'll do much to attract back those who went to Labour, either.0 -
Brilliant for UKIP, thoughMikeK said:
A Con/Lab government would be called a National government. We would then be called on to "put our shoulder to the wheel" and "our nose to the grindstone" in the national interest.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
It would be a disaster for the UK and democracy.
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Oh look! Oil's back over $110 $70........0
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Yes, I think it's more likely than 50/1.MikeK said:
A Con/Lab government would be called a National government. We would then be called on to "put our shoulder to the wheel" and "our nose to the grindstone" in the national interest.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
It would be a disaster for the UK and democracy.0 -
On Nick Clegg - given Hallam used to be a Tory seat and they came 2nd last time wouldn't it make sense for Labour to say it's a 3 way marginal? If the Tories think they can win then they won't vote tactically for Clegg. Can Tories in Hallam still be convinced they have a chance?0
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So farewell then Telegraph Blogs.
Rightwing blogger opinion now represented by the demented Breitbart London and, er, Guido.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Not really tempted by those.0 -
I think it would be very interesting if we had a situation whereby Ukip get 3 times as many votes as the SNP, but only 1 MP, whereas the Nats could have 40 and be holding the balance of power. Well it'll either be Salmond on Clegg who'll have the Tories and Labour purring for their support whilst Nigel kicks up a fuss on Parliament Square.Sean_F said:
Brilliant for UKIP, thoughMikeK said:
A Con/Lab government would be called a National government. We would then be called on to "put our shoulder to the wheel" and "our nose to the grindstone" in the national interest.anotherDave said:
I don't see why a grand coalition (Con + Lab) wouldn't work.Socrates said:On Kellner's numbers the only options for a stable majority are:
- Big party + Lib Dems + SNP
- Grand coalition
I can't see either working.
It would be a disaster for the UK and democracy.
0 -
Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/0 -
Oh dear oh dear.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/0 -
I'm relieved that I'm not the only person in the polling world who suffers from typos and transposition errors0
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On topic, I went for Long Term Economic Plan and Labour's economic mess0
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Miliband now ahead of Tory/UKIP combined, and up 7% on 2010.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/0 -
On looking after the elderly. And since they're the most Tory supporting part of the electorate, don't expect that to change.Socrates said:
I would love to see a graph of spending per capita in each of major segments by country. There's a whole bunch of countries, including wealthy ones like Switzerland and poorer ones like the Baltics, who spend a lot less as a share of GDP. Even our own economy was down at 41% after Major, despite us having a smaller GDP. Yet by all reports, further cuts in our departments are incredibly difficult, and we've been eroding our defence capabilities etc. Where's all the money going?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he's cut spending as fast as was reasonably possible without crashing into the rocks on the other side. You're right that we need to keep going on getting public spending down quite a bit further, although the political difficulty is that, with the health costs and care for the elderly necessarily taking up more and more resource, that leaves the remaining spending under even greater pressure.Socrates said:One of the reasons I've actually appreciated Osborne's record in office is that the cuts have been slower than his rhetoric. We'll need to speed up now we approach 5% unemployment and interest rates would otherwise go up though.
When you look at where the spending goes, really the only scope for further significant savings is working-age welfare payments.
0 -
Hmmm.... After driving north from Newcastle towards Dundee last night on the single lane A1 in the dark with a greasy spray and endless lorries I think I can say that I was fairly enthusiastic. I have never seriously thought about voting Green. Aren't Labour supporters supposed to like all this infrastructure stuff though?El_Capitano said:Reading through the announcement of a major road-building programme, and Danny Alexander's enthusiastic support for it, with a sense of disbelief.
I think Danny Alexander has just scuppered the LibDems' chances of recovering any of the support they lost to the Greens. I can't believe it'll do much to attract back those who went to Labour, either.0 -
Yes, but most of us double-check the figures if they look astonishing, and even more so if they're going to make headline news.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm relieved that I'm not the only person in the polling world who suffers from typos and transposition errors
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Wow, that's pretty fulsome from His Lordship.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/
No reason to regard it as anything other than an honest error. His polls remain outstandingly reliable guides as to possible future election outcomes.0 -
I triple, quadruple check stuff and still suffer from it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but most of us double-check the figures if they look astonishing, and even more so if they're going to make headline news.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm relieved that I'm not the only person in the polling world who suffers from typos and transposition errors
I'm grateful to Lord Ashcroft for the duff poll, it altered the Lab price in Doncaster North for a while.0 -
Yup, there's some people that automatically dismiss his polls, I for one, will still keep them in high regard.Peter_the_Punter said:
Wow, that's pretty fulsome from His Lordship.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/
No reason to regard it as anything other than an honest error. His polls remain outstandingly reliable guides as to possible future election outcomes.0 -
People cock things up, sometimes to a fairly large degree. It's not like Lord Ashcroft decided to axe Grand Admiral Thrawn from the canon whilst keeping Jar Jar Binks.0
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So, let's get this straight, you think Gordon Brown built up all that public spending because he wanted to reward the most Tory-supporting part of the electorate? Or are you suggesting that as soon as Miliband is in power he's going to axe spending on pensioners?FrankBooth said:On looking after the elderly. And since they're the most Tory supporting part of the electorate, don't expect that to change.
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What did it shorten to ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, there's some people that automatically dismiss his polls, I for one, will still keep them in high regard.Peter_the_Punter said:
Wow, that's pretty fulsome from His Lordship.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/
No reason to regard it as anything other than an honest error. His polls remain outstandingly reliable guides as to possible future election outcomes.
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I think it’ll be selective. In areas where road problems which are likely to be relieved as a result of the improvements I think they’ll play well. In others you could well be right.El_Capitano said:Reading through the announcement of a major road-building programme, and Danny Alexander's enthusiastic support for it, with a sense of disbelief.
I think Danny Alexander has just scuppered the LibDems' chances of recovering any of the support they lost to the Greens. I can't believe it'll do much to attract back those who went to Labour, either.0 -
Just watched "V for Vendetta" for the first time... interesting film
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I think from 1/100 to 1/20Pulpstar said:
What did it shorten to ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, there's some people that automatically dismiss his polls, I for one, will still keep them in high regard.Peter_the_Punter said:
Wow, that's pretty fulsome from His Lordship.TheScreamingEagles said:Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Labour more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.
I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. As ever, I welcome questions and observations on my research, and will always seek to correct errors that inevitably crop up from time to time.
Meanwhile, my apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed-miliband-doncaster-north-correction/
No reason to regard it as anything other than an honest error. His polls remain outstandingly reliable guides as to possible future election outcomes.0 -
I take your word for it, Richard. I didn't look that closely at it.Richard_Nabavi said:
In respect of the planned raising of the higher-rate allowance, announced at the Conference in October, it was a curious piece of political theatre. The Tories dressed it up as a tax cut (good), and Labour joined in by railing against it as a tax cut (bad). In fact it was pretty much neutral, not very different to index-linking the allowances.Peter_the_Punter said:If I have a criticisms, it would be of unfunded tax cuts but obviously I understand that it's politics and he has to satisfy a broad spectrum of public and Party opinion, so it's all part of the game, regrettable though that may sometimes be.
Ideally I would like a Chancellor who said something along the lines of 'We're really in the shite, so I've got to raise taxes and/or cut public spending (but not by so much as to shove us back into recession). Grin and bear it, and in the end we'll survive what threatened to be a really catastrophic economic meltdown and may even finish up better off at the end of it.'
In a way, that's what he's been trying to do but without putting it quite that way. I guess it's too much to expect a politician to be frank about these things though, and I have no doubt at all that in the event that Ed Balls takes over from Osborne idc, he will be just as economical with the truth.
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Face it Richard. The Tories are the party of smaller government but the biggest users of current spending are their own voter base. You can hardly deny that's a problem.Richard_Nabavi said:
So, let's get this straight, you think Gordon Brown built up all that public spending because he wanted to reward the most Tory-supporting part of the electorate? Or are you suggesting that as soon as Miliband is in power he's going to axe spending on pensioners?FrankBooth said:On looking after the elderly. And since they're the most Tory supporting part of the electorate, don't expect that to change.
And yes I know they've paid into the system their whole lives.0 -
Yes, yes, I understand that. But you seem to be claiming that things would be different under Labour. That wasn't the case under Blair and Brown - quite the opposite, in fact. Brown doled out goodies for pensioners more than any other recent Chancellor. And as far as I klnow there is no suggestion that the two Eds would do anything different.FrankBooth said:
Face it Richard. The Tories are the party of smaller government but the biggest users of current spending are their own voter base. You can hardly deny that's a problem.Richard_Nabavi said:
So, let's get this straight, you think Gordon Brown built up all that public spending because he wanted to reward the most Tory-supporting part of the electorate? Or are you suggesting that as soon as Miliband is in power he's going to axe spending on pensioners?FrankBooth said:On looking after the elderly. And since they're the most Tory supporting part of the electorate, don't expect that to change.
And yes I know they've paid into the system their whole lives.
So what is your point, exactly?0
