Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands…. – politicalbetting.com

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System
System Posts: 12,578
edited May 2021 in General
imageLabour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands…. – politicalbetting.com

It is often said that Labour has no route to Downing Street without retrieving its former solid bloc of seats north of the border. Or winning back those “Red Wall” seats in the north-west and north-east of England. What is less often remarked upon is that it will not be enough – unless it can also do something about the Midlands.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    edited May 2021
    Again?

    Edit: Yes indeed!
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,864
    2nd. Like Kent shortly. Apparently.
  • CatMan
    CatMan Posts: 3,327
    You mean he's not Hollywood actor Mark Wahlberg? I feel cheated.
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    Picture looks like a tic with red spots. Is it Newcastle-under-Lyme by chance?

    (Apols to TissuePrice if you're lurking)
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    Leics Council has 4 Labour seats, not 9 as in the header. There are 9 LibDem though.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Labour winning Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. The Tories everywhere else. Perhaps there is a size of town or city at which it now becomes Labour. 200,000?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    I feel like the Midlands gets overlooked a lot, not just politically. Marquee Mark (I refuse to remember posters' real names, out of principle!) is right to highlight it. Given some movement, though, I suspect they might focus on the chimera prospects of the South, even though that may take some time to chip away at.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    FrankBooth said:

    Labour winning Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. The Tories everywhere else. Perhaps there is a size of town or city at which it now becomes Labour. 200,000?

    Doesn't always work like that. See Warwick and Leamington Spa.
  • alex_
    alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Gallowgate said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Labour winning Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. The Tories everywhere else. Perhaps there is a size of town or city at which it now becomes Labour. 200,000?

    Doesn't always work like that. See Warwick and Leamington Spa.
    Universities.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    If he loses hopefully it'd be by enough for him not to play silly buggers, like in Istanbul

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2019_Istanbul_mayoral_election

    Ok, it didn't work so systems and voters were strong enough, but felt like a tester.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Excellent article @MarqueeMark
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Excellent header Mark, thank you.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    alex_ said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Labour winning Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. The Tories everywhere else. Perhaps there is a size of town or city at which it now becomes Labour. 200,000?

    Doesn't always work like that. See Warwick and Leamington Spa.
    Universities.

    To an extent. Although of course Warwick University is actually in Coventry ;)
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Gallowgate said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Labour winning Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. The Tories everywhere else. Perhaps there is a size of town or city at which it now becomes Labour. 200,000?

    Doesn't always work like that. See Warwick and Leamington Spa.
    University seat? See also Oxford East, Cambridge, York Central, Norwich South, Canterbury, etc.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    51/49 won't be enough to dislodge Erdogan.

    He'll cheat to stay in power.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2021
    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    Is Erdogan opponent linked to the even more extreme guy who is in exile in the US and who tried to organize a coup a few years ago? Genuine question, I have no idea about Turkish politics, other than I remember them saying when they tried to coup, that the exiled guy is exiled because he fell out with Erdogan, as he thought he was too liberal.
  • LostPassword
    LostPassword Posts: 19,679
    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Foxy said:

    Leics Council has 4 Labour seats, not 9 as in the header. There are 9 LibDem though.

    Bloody BBC!
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    I think you're right. People talk like big majorities are hard to overcome but we've seen huge swings in vote share over the past 20 or so years.

    If labour become more popular, geography will matter much less. It just so happens that Labour's diehard vote is now metropolitan university seats, rather than northern and midland coalfields.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?

    Cities. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
  • BannedinnParis
    BannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Taken entirely from wiki,

    West Midlands constituencies

    2010
    Con 39.5 - 30.6 Lan

    2015
    Con 41.8 - 32.9 Lab

    2017
    Con 49.1 - 42.6 :Lab

    2019
    Con 53.5 - 33.9 Lab
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,767
    The Midlands were, I believe but cannot prove, recipients of a lot of social media campaigning about how Jeremy Corbyn personally directed IRA bombing campaigns in the region and would disband the army.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    edited May 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?

    Cities. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
    In 30 years the Conservative vote share has gone from 42% to 12%. Just shows.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    edited May 2021
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?

    Cities. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
    In 30 years the Conservative vote share has gone from 42% to 12%. Just shows.
    And the Lib Dems have gone 48% to 0% in 9 years!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    If the Conservatives lost ten points, and the Labour Party gained ten, then most of the Labour vote inefficiency would take care of itself.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.
  • BluestBlue
    BluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Great look at the region, thanks @MarqueeMark.

    There's something about that header image that speaks to me on a deep level. Not sure why though.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    BannedinnParis said:

    Taken entirely from wiki,

    West Midlands constituencies

    2010
    Con 39.5 - 30.6 Lan

    2015
    Con 41.8 - 32.9 Lab

    2017
    Con 49.1 - 42.6 :Lab

    2019
    Con 53.5 - 33.9 Lab

    The most interesting part of that is that others has dropped from 30 points to 10.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    Tories are unlikely to replace Boris with the Tory Brown though.

    Not after the way she handled the 2017 campaign.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    Except it isn't. As we have demonstrated.

    Bristol West - Tories lost by 1,493 votes in 1997. In 2019 they lost by 38,000 votes.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Midlands were, I believe but cannot prove, recipients of a lot of social media campaigning about how Jeremy Corbyn personally directed IRA bombing campaigns in the region and would disband the army.

    That explains Labour going backwards in the 2021 local elections with SKS as leader how, exactly?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    Tories are unlikely to replace Boris with the Tory Brown though.

    Not after the way she handled the 2017 campaign.
    Also Labour got 40% just 4 years ago. Things are a bit more volatile these days. No need for doom and gloom. Just hard work.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    Is Erdogan opponent linked to the even more extreme guy who is in exile in the US and who tried to organize a coup a few years ago? Genuine question, I have no idea about Turkish politics, other than I remember them saying when they tried to coup, that the exiled guy is exiled because he fell out with Erdogan, as he thought he was too liberal.
    Doubt it. The CHP is the mainstream secular party founded by Ataturk, which ruled Turkey for years.
    Broadly centre left. Anti-Islam.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    Tories are unlikely to replace Boris with the Tory Brown though.

    Not after the way she handled the 2017 campaign.
    Also Labour got 40% just 4 years ago. Things are a bit more volatile these days. No need for doom and gloom. Just hard work.
    Its the hope that kills you.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    dixiedean said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    Is Erdogan opponent linked to the even more extreme guy who is in exile in the US and who tried to organize a coup a few years ago? Genuine question, I have no idea about Turkish politics, other than I remember them saying when they tried to coup, that the exiled guy is exiled because he fell out with Erdogan, as he thought he was too liberal.
    Doubt it. The CHP is the mainstream secular party founded by Ataturk, which ruled Turkey for years.
    Broadly centre left. Anti-Islam.
    I don't think they're anti-islam. More anti-islamism. Key difference.
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    Geographically the median voter is in the Midlands, I suppose.
    And in political positioning too.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited May 2021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    Tories are unlikely to replace Boris with the Tory Brown though.

    Not after the way she handled the 2017 campaign.
    Also Labour got 40% just 4 years ago. Things are a bit more volatile these days. No need for doom and gloom. Just hard work.
    Its the hope that kills you.
    Nah. It’s giving up that kills you. I’ve heard both Tory and Labour parties written off before. Who knows what will happen.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Gallowgate said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    Except it isn't. As we have demonstrated.

    Bristol West - Tories lost by 1,493 votes in 1997. In 2019 they lost by 38,000 votes.
    You are talking one constituency that has shifted against the Tories. I am talking an entire region that has shifted against Labour.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,050
    Jeepers. There are 400 billion stars.... in the Milky Way. Just in our galaxy

    There are 70 SEXTILLION stars in the observable universe, =

    70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And we might be in one of an infinite number of parallel universes. Makes my recent Camden weather complaints looks a bit trivial, TBH
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gallowgate said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    Except it isn't. As we have demonstrated.

    Bristol West - Tories lost by 1,493 votes in 1997. In 2019 they lost by 38,000 votes.
    You are talking one constituency that has shifted against the Tories. I am talking an entire region that has shifted against Labour.
    All I'm saying is that a swing from 5,000 votes to 13,5000 isn't particular "unprecedented". We've seen much bigger swings than that over the past 20 years.
  • alex_
    alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

    Strange how the Government is apparently planning to do all these things NOW, when they didn't make any effort to do it last year when it might have mattered.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The problem is, whereas Labour's coalition of voters is very diverse, people like me in Woking aren't all that different to newly won Tory voters in Mansfield.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Good header @MarqueeMark.
    Been saying this for a while. For all the banging on about "the North", it is the most politically heterogeneous. Some of it swinging wildly blue, other areas barely moving at all.
    The Midlands is all one way traffic. Been going that way for some time now. Shows no sign of reversing.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    tlg86 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The problem is, whereas Labour's coalition of voters is very diverse, people like me in Woking aren't all that different to newly won Tory voters in Mansfield.
    You're right. But it does mean that huge swings to Labour (or another party) are possible if the "average" Mansfield or Woking voter decides they don't like the Conservatives much anymore.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2021
    alex_ said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

    Strange how the Government is apparently planning to do all these things NOW, when they didn't make any effort to do it last year when it might have mattered.
    And which is about as effective as only doing in competition drug testing for athletes at the Olympics.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    tlg86 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The problem is, whereas Labour's coalition of voters is very diverse, people like me in Woking aren't all that different to newly won Tory voters in Mansfield.
    All vulnerable to interest rate rises?
  • Stuartinromford
    Stuartinromford Posts: 19,148
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?

    Cities. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
    In 30 years the Conservative vote share has gone from 42% to 12%. Just shows.
    Lots of cities used to have a nicer more middle class seat- Bristol West, Leeds North West, Portsmouth South, that sort of place, which was reasonably reliably Conservative. There were similar seats in outer Inner London- Lewisham East and West were classic marginals for decades.

    Partly the areas changed- big family houses were converted into flats, so a different demographic lived there. Partly, there has been a drift of educated urbanites away from the Conservatives for decades; Johnson just out rocket boosters under it.

    Take Cambridge. A Conservative seat until 1992, and only just lost then. Now there aren't even really any council wards where they are in a competitive second place.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Leon said:

    Jeepers. There are 400 billion stars.... in the Milky Way. Just in our galaxy

    There are 70 SEXTILLION stars in the observable universe, =

    70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And we might be in one of an infinite number of parallel universes. Makes my recent Camden weather complaints looks a bit trivial, TBH

    And when we start looking for planets, we see they are everywhere too. Lets say 5 per star. 350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets.

    Everywhere we look, or solar system looks very ordinary.

    So maybe life is ordinary too? If not, and we are it - what a fucking waste of a Universe.
  • theProle
    theProle Posts: 1,411
    edited May 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Can someone help me with something I can't get my head around? Boris has a majority of 80. In 1983 Maggie had a majority of 144. Yet Boris won a load of 'Red Wall' seats that Maggie couldn't get close to. So where are all the seats she had that he doesn't?

    Cities. E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
    Scotland - a loss of around 20 Tory seats to the SNP 1983-present. Not that this helps Labour a great deal if that want an outright majority.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    rcs1000 said:

    BannedinnParis said:

    Taken entirely from wiki,

    West Midlands constituencies

    2010
    Con 39.5 - 30.6 Lan

    2015
    Con 41.8 - 32.9 Lab

    2017
    Con 49.1 - 42.6 :Lab

    2019
    Con 53.5 - 33.9 Lab

    The most interesting part of that is that others has dropped from 30 points to 10.
    Must say I find the Labour %age higher in 2019 than 2015 most interesting.
    The Tories have hoovered up the NOTA it seems.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The problem is, whereas Labour's coalition of voters is very diverse, people like me in Woking aren't all that different to newly won Tory voters in Mansfield.
    You're right. But it does mean that huge swings to Labour (or another party) are possible if the "average" Mansfield or Woking voter decides they don't like the Conservatives much anymore.
    Ben Bradley is on almost 64% of the vote in Mansfield. Disastrous doesn't really begin to cover the north of the east midlands for Labour.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers. There are 400 billion stars.... in the Milky Way. Just in our galaxy

    There are 70 SEXTILLION stars in the observable universe, =

    70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And we might be in one of an infinite number of parallel universes. Makes my recent Camden weather complaints looks a bit trivial, TBH

    And when we start looking for planets, we see they are everywhere too. Lets say 5 per star. 350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets.

    Everywhere we look, or solar system looks very ordinary.

    So maybe life is ordinary too? If not, and we are it - what a fucking waste of a Universe.
    So some hope for Labour yet. Lots of voters out there 😉
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The Conservative coalition has already cracked. In 2017 and 2019 it lost a chunk of its Europhile centre- right.

    It just replaced them with an ever bigger influx of former Labour voters.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Gallowgate said:

    dixiedean said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Never mind the Middle-lands, how about the Middle East?

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Turkey, Gezici poll:

    Presidential election, run-off scenario:

    Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 51%
    Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 49%

    Fieldwork: May 2021
    Sample size: 2,280

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1394197096518066176

    Is Erdogan opponent linked to the even more extreme guy who is in exile in the US and who tried to organize a coup a few years ago? Genuine question, I have no idea about Turkish politics, other than I remember them saying when they tried to coup, that the exiled guy is exiled because he fell out with Erdogan, as he thought he was too liberal.
    Doubt it. The CHP is the mainstream secular party founded by Ataturk, which ruled Turkey for years.
    Broadly centre left. Anti-Islam.
    I don't think they're anti-islam. More anti-islamism. Key difference.
    Yes. Well spotted.
    You're on the ball now you aren't spending every moment revising. ;)
  • alex_
    alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    alex_ said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

    Strange how the Government is apparently planning to do all these things NOW, when they didn't make any effort to do it last year when it might have mattered.
    And which is about as effective as only doing in competition drug testing for athletes at the Olympics.
    Not even sure how it works and how anyone ends up getting fines. If they knock and you're in - no fine. If they knock and you're out - they have no power to break in and prove it. Which leaves you with you being out, but somebody else answering the door.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The Conservative coalition has already cracked. In 2017 and 2019 it lost a chunk of its Europhile centre- right.

    It just replaced them with an ever bigger influx of former Labour voters.
    Triggers broom.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour have problems, but still have more seats than Howard in 2005. Tories squeaked in from there.

    I disagree. Look at the second table comparing the two results from my piece from Sunday:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/05/16/the-case-for-labour-making-an-electoral-pact/

    The 2019 Labour vote is much more concentrated than the 2005 Con vote.
    Without a doubt the Labour core vote is very inefficient at present. But it only takes 1 part of the current Conservative coalition to crack and the picture changes again.
    The Conservative coalition has already cracked. In 2017 and 2019 it lost a chunk of its Europhile centre- right.

    It just replaced them with an ever bigger influx of former Labour voters.
    Exactly
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers. There are 400 billion stars.... in the Milky Way. Just in our galaxy

    There are 70 SEXTILLION stars in the observable universe, =

    70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And we might be in one of an infinite number of parallel universes. Makes my recent Camden weather complaints looks a bit trivial, TBH

    And when we start looking for planets, we see they are everywhere too. Lets say 5 per star. 350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets.

    Everywhere we look, or solar system looks very ordinary.

    So maybe life is ordinary too? If not, and we are it - what a fucking waste of a Universe.
    So some hope for Labour yet. Lots of voters out there 😉
    "Saturday, 9.30. Door-knocking in Alpha Centauri West. Bring a packed lunch."
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,050
    MarqueeMark said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers. There are 400 billion stars.... in the Milky Way. Just in our galaxy

    There are 70 SEXTILLION stars in the observable universe, =

    70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And we might be in one of an infinite number of parallel universes. Makes my recent Camden weather complaints looks a bit trivial, TBH

    And when we start looking for planets, we see they are everywhere too. Lets say 5 per star. 350,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets.

    Everywhere we look, or solar system looks very ordinary.

    So maybe life is ordinary too? If not, and we are it - what a fucking waste of a Universe.
    Yes, that's where I found these stats, by looking at the chances of intelligent alien life.

    The Wikipedia page on the Fermi Paradox ("where is everyone?") is absolute genius. Superbly informative, balanced, referenced, updated. The internet was made for shit like this

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
    If Boris were to can student loans, they would be again!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
    If Boris were to can student loans, they would be again!
    Will somebody think of the poor magic money forest....
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    edited May 2021
    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

    There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

    A traveller can return as one of three states:

    1) No covid, no problem

    2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

    3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

    Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

    R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

    Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

    If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Winning the conversation.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    I thought that is what network rail did and they were already state owned?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
    If Boris were to can student loans, they would be again!
    Spend endless amounts of money, win votes. Genius. Why is Boris the first politician to think of this scheme? It’s as if there’s a catch he’s yet to spot.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    I feel like the Midlands gets overlooked a lot, not just politically. Marquee Mark (I refuse to remember posters' real names, out of principle!) is right to highlight it. Given some movement, though, I suspect they might focus on the chimera prospects of the South, even though that may take some time to chip away at.

    I had lunch in Repton today. Billed itself as the historical capital of Mercia…
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
    If Boris were to can student loans, they would be again!
    Spend endless amounts of money, win votes. Genius. Why is Boris the first politician to think of this scheme? It’s as if there’s a catch he’s yet to spot.
    Yes, but that catch will only materialise a year into a Labour government, who will pick up the blame and then be out of power for another generation. We all know that it's going to happen.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like the Midlands gets overlooked a lot, not just politically. Marquee Mark (I refuse to remember posters' real names, out of principle!) is right to highlight it. Given some movement, though, I suspect they might focus on the chimera prospects of the South, even though that may take some time to chip away at.

    I had lunch in Repton today. Billed itself as the historical capital of Mercia…
    Did you go in the church there?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Boris brings back British Rail.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2021
    Gallowgate said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?
    The big difference from the report is it seems to be they want it to set the fare structure.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like the Midlands gets overlooked a lot, not just politically. Marquee Mark (I refuse to remember posters' real names, out of principle!) is right to highlight it. Given some movement, though, I suspect they might focus on the chimera prospects of the South, even though that may take some time to chip away at.

    I had lunch in Repton today. Billed itself as the historical capital of Mercia…
    Everyone knows that's Tamworth. Bloody Repton — the cheek of it.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    I knew we shouldn't have elected Corbyn...
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    LostPassword said:

    I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

    Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

    Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

    The nearest the Tories got to winning a seat in Stoke in the 1980's was missing by 5,000 in Stoke South in 87.

    The Tories won Nuneaton in the 80's by 5,000 or so. It is now 13,500.

    So this level of shift is unprecedented.
    I'm not sure it's that unprecedented: seats change and politics change. In the mid 1980s, there were mining villages where the Conservatives would have gotten zero votes.

    Now the Conservatives party has changed, as has Labour and as have the villages themselves. And now they may well be Conservative majority seats.

    Other seats have gone the other way. Cambridge used to be a Conservative seat. Indeed, many University seats were Conservative.
    If Boris were to can student loans, they would be again!
    Spend endless amounts of money, win votes. Genius. Why is Boris the first politician to think of this scheme? It’s as if there’s a catch he’s yet to spot.
    He spotted that the catch was to do it without the attendant antisemitism!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    If Labour is phoning it in in the Midlands, how's their bright spot of London going..

    GLA 2021 & Labour doesn't even control the council. Oh.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Boris brings back British Rail.
    Expect a decline in rail passenger numbers from now on.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Applied for a job at a University today.
    Regular readers will be delighted to know I was asked to self-define my gender, whether it was the same at birth and my preferred pronouns.
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    It already is under state control: Network Rail.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

    Golden age of TV though.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Seeing stories on Fury-Joshua et al, am I the only one who finds Boxers engaging in trash talk to be really boring and tiresome? I can't figure out if they mean it, because they get all worked up, which I guess I get but just looks childish, or they just go through the motions as it is part of building a narrative for a fight, in which case it is just childish and boring. Sure, personality is needed to make things more interesting, but I don't know how effective it really is at building hype - wrestling would be the place to go if trash talk is wanted.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    edited May 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Applied for a job at a University today.
    Regular readers will be delighted to know I was asked to self-define my gender, whether it was the same at birth and my preferred pronouns.

    Best of luck!
    Although you don't want to work for those woke fascists anyway.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Gallowgate said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like the Midlands gets overlooked a lot, not just politically. Marquee Mark (I refuse to remember posters' real names, out of principle!) is right to highlight it. Given some movement, though, I suspect they might focus on the chimera prospects of the South, even though that may take some time to chip away at.

    I had lunch in Repton today. Billed itself as the historical capital of Mercia…
    Everyone knows that's Tamworth. Bloody Repton — the cheek of it.
    Tombs of the Mercian royals though. Including the delightful pairing of King Ethelbald and King Wiglaf. (Since resurrected in Lichfield as Michael Fabricant....well, his wig is avin' a larf....)
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Seeing stories on Fury-Joshua et al, am I the only one who finds Boxers engaging in trash talk to be really boring and tiresome? I can't figure out if they mean it, because they get all worked up, which I guess I get but just looks childish, or they just go through the motions as it is part of building a narrative for a fight, in which case it is just childish and boring. Sure, personality is needed to make things more interesting, but I don't know how effective it really is at building hype - wrestling would be the place to go if trash talk is wanted.

    I view it as real and authentic as WWE.
  • TimT
    TimT Posts: 6,468
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    Seeing stories on Fury-Joshua et al, am I the only one who finds Boxers engaging in trash talk to be really boring and tiresome? I can't figure out if they mean it, because they get all worked up, which I guess I get but just looks childish, or they just go through the motions as it is part of building a narrative for a fight, in which case it is just childish and boring. Sure, personality is needed to make things more interesting, but I don't know how effective it really is at building hype - wrestling would be the place to go if trash talk is wanted.

    I view it as real and authentic as WWE.
    Kiddies in the school yard
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,050
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

    And the shit weather as well (1976 apart)

    SIGH
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

    Golden age of TV though.
    Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Jonathan said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    Boris brings back British Rail.
    Great.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Gallowgate said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applied for a job at a University today.
    Regular readers will be delighted to know I was asked to self-define my gender, whether it was the same at birth and my preferred pronouns.

    Best of luck!
    Although you don't want to work for those woke fascists anyway.
    Cheers!
    Pity they aren't so hot on the GDPR. Asked for the names, addresses, phone number and emails of referees at the application stage.
    I didn't know.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chameleon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

    Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

    There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

    A traveller can return as one of three states:

    1) No covid, no problem

    2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

    3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

    Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

    R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

    Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

    If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.
    Because you're viewing it as a boolean state of "its out" or "its in" and if "its in" then there's nothing we can do about it.

    If a problem variant comes in then its better to have those cases at a low number that can be suppressed and not simply (at this stage) give up and let it rip.

    In March 2020 we were struggling to do thousands of tests per day, now we can do a million plus tests per day. If limited outbreaks occur then surge testing etc can squish it, which isn't the case if its just letting it run wild without a care. 20 days head start is absolutely massive.
  • Anabobazina
    Anabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Anabobazina said:

    williamglenn said:

    Rail services to come under unified state control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

    "The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

    It already is under state control: Network Rail.
    Okay, so this is a step forward. It is the end - finally - of franchising. Thank god. As far as I can work out from that story, some lines will be operated under concessions (ie private firms will bid to operate the lines, in the same way private companies contract for the NHS etc) but GBR is a public body in charge of the railways: both the trains and the track.

    Makes decent sense on the face of it. I would guess that some lines might continue to be run directly by the state (as NI and LNER are currently).

    It’s a massive roll back from the idiocy of franchising and renationalisation of sorts. Will be popular.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Big Sam is stepping down from West Brom.
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