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glass bead game: you'd probably get the same polling on bees as you get for the NHS0
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Our car manufacturers currently have to meet several standards for different overseas markets and do. It's called exporting.Richard_Nabavi said:
Really? You must have missed my repeated posts when I have said that the balance of the argument is shifting towards the Out side.Richard_Tyndall said:Rubbish. You don't need anything to put you off the Out side since you made up your mind long ago and will not countenance anything that might challenge that view.
I ignored it because it is quite possibly wrong (no-one seems quite sure about this), but in any case irrelevant. There will still have to be a trade treaty with the EURichard_Tyndall said:You ignore the basic point I made that we would still have membership of the single market via EFTA of which we are an original independent signatory quite separate to the EU.
No-one has ever suggested they wouldn't trade with us. In practice, a free-trade agreement on goods should be very easy to negotiate, especially if (as I think is almost certain) we agree to continue observing EU product standards; I can't imagine we'd want our car manufacturers, for example, to have to meet both EU and some other vehicle type approvals.Richard_Tyndall said:That is before we get on to the basic point that our balance of trade deficit is such that the EU simply cannot afford to not trade with us.
The much more difficult part of the negotiations would be on services, which are very important for us but not for our EU friends, and where many of them actively don't want to give us free access.
I don't know why you have become so personally unpleasant over the last few months. I guess it must be because I win all the arguments.Richard_Tyndall said:But of course don't let simple things like facts get in the way of your blind Europhilia.
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"We are not and never have been members of EFTA."
Sorry? We were founder members.0 -
LOL! Funniest post of the week.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope, I have not got nasty at all. I have just come to realise what a dishonest person you are.
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But it can do exactly that. What prevents it, given that it has no agreement whatever with EFTA qua EFTA? And if you mean EEA, as I have said before, you will get a free movement of people clause.Richard_Tyndall said:
As I say,. unless you are claiming that the EU can pick and choose which members of EFTA it does business with your case is garbage.Richard_Nabavi said:
Really? You must have missed my repeated posts when I have said that the balance of the argument is shifting towards the Out side.Richard_Tyndall said:Rubbish. You don't need anything to put you off the Out side since you made up your mind long ago and will not countenance anything that might challenge that view.
I ignored it because it is quite possibly wrong (no-one seems quite sure about this), but in case irrelevant. There will still have to be a trade treaty with the EURichard_Tyndall said:You ignore the basic point I made that we would still have membership of the single market via EFTA of which we are an original independent signatory quite separate to the EU.
No-one has ever suggested they wouldn't trade with us. In practice, a free-trade agreement on goods should be very easy to negotiate, especially if (as I think is almost certain) we agree to adopt EU product standards; I can't imagine we'd want our car manufacturers, for example, to have to meet both EU and some other vehicle type approvals.Richard_Tyndall said:That is before we get on to the basic point that our balance of trade deficit is such that the EU simply cannot afford to not trade with us.
The much more difficult part of the negotiations would be on services, which are very important for us but not for our EU friends, and where many of them actively don't want to give us free access.
I don't know why you have become so personally unpleasant over the last few months. I guess it must be because I win all the arguments.Richard_Tyndall said:But of course don't let simple things like facts get in the way of your blind Europhilia.
Yet another argument you have lost because you ignore basic facts.
And this is meant to be your chosen specialised subject?
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Some of them do, but I very much doubt that they'd want another one just for the UK market, and the entire additional set of regulations and testing that that would entail. So in practice we would stick with the EU standards.Alanbrooke said:Our car manufacturers currently have to meet several standards for different overseas markets and do. It's called exporting.
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@Richard_Nabavi
South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.0 -
Already edited. See below.HurstLlama said:"We are not and never have been members of EFTA."
Sorry? We were founder members.
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you're busking Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some of them do, but I very much doubt that they'd want another one for the UK market, and the entire additional set of regulations and testing that that would entail. So in practice we would stick with the EU standards.Alanbrooke said:Our car manufacturers currently have to meet several standards for different overseas markets and do. It's called exporting.
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Without wishing to get involved with the personal side of this argument (which isn't the least bit interesting to me) I'm curious what you meant by this, Richard? I think I'm either reading it too literally (since there is no way for the UK to remain, strictu sensu, in something it left in 1973), or perhaps EFTA was meant to be "EEA"?Richard_Tyndall said:
If we left the EU we would almost certainly remain members of EFTA. As such we would continue to trade as we had done before whilst studying the options for new trade agreements outside of EFTA if we chose to leave.0 -
True but in the past inflation would have been rising rapidly for a while too. Now it is well below target.taffys said:''This is getting very close to a boom.''
In the past rates would be going up faster than you can say Nigel Lawson.
Our economy has changed fairly fundamentally.
Firstly, in work benefits means that the marginal benefits of leaving underemployment and seeking full time employment are much less than they were in the past. We have insulated the under employed from the consequences of their position as long as people work 16 hours a week. This is making the labour market look much tighter than it really is.
Secondly, the availability of almost unlimited highly skilled and unemployed labour from the A10 nations has fundamentally changed our labour markets taking away much of the negotiating power of labour. Low wages are here to stay unless you have particular skills not generally available in the market. This is reducing the need to increase interest rates.
Productivity growth is low because labour is so cheap (subsidised by the state). Breaking this cycle is not going to be easy. A higher minimum wage is one obvious starting point. Reducing the cap on total benefits is another. Incentivising training by allowing more than 100% tax relief on the money spent may be a third.
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So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.0 -
@Richard_Tyndall
'You falsely claim that we would need to have atrade treaty with the EU. Of course that treaty already exists between the EU and EFTA/EEA. As I say,. unless you are claiming that the EU can pick and choose which members of EFTA it does business with your case is garbage.'
Wrong,we would have to re-apply for EFTA membership,a separate trade treaty or associate membership like Turkey.
'Thank you for your email. Free movement of persons is indeed an integral part of the EEA Agreement. As you will have seen in Annexes 5 and 8 to the EEA Agreement, the EEA EFTA States (Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) have incorporated EU legislation on Free Movement of Persons into the EEA Agreement. Most notably Regulation 492/2011on freedom of movement for workers within the Union and Directive 2004/38 on the right of citizens of the Union and their family members to move and reside freely within the territory of the Member States. This means that nationals of the EEA EFTA States have the same right as EU citizens to move, work and reside anywhere in the EU (subject to the relevant EU legislation). Equally, EU citizens have the right to move, work and reside in the EEA EFTA States, although certain sectoral adaptations apply to Liechtenstein due to its small size and special geographic situation.
Nonetheless, please be aware that in order to be a party to the EEA Agreement it is necessary either to be a member of the EU or of EFTA (See Article 128 of the EEA Agreement). If the UK were to leave the EU, it would be neither and therefore it would no longer be a party to the EEA Agreement. The UK was indeed a member of EFTA from 1960 until 1973 but relinquished its membership in order to join the EU (or EEC as it was called at the time). Thus, if the UK left the EU but wanted to remain a party to the EEA Agreement it would first have to apply to re-join EFTA and then apply to become a party to the EEA Agreement as a member of EFTA.
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Fair enough! But I think the voters may want Mr Cameron to offer greater certainty on whether or not he would ask them again when the deal actually materialised (if it did) or after N years (if it didn't). Mr Farage could as you observe be asked the reverse question!Richard_Nabavi said:@NickPalmer - The honest answer is that I don't know! I guess it would depend on the extent of the variance from what was thought to be agreed.
The trouble is that there is a limit to what you can do to allow for the hypothetical. In the scenario you describe, it might not even be Cameron or a Conservative government who was in power when the Poles pulled the plug. It might even be your problem - what would a Labour government do in that scenario?
Edit: In addition, the problem exists in reverse if we decide to leave. What happens if, contrary to the assurances of the BOOers, we find that we can't negotiate an acceptable trade treaty with the EU?0 -
There are many more degrees of "free trade in services" than there are in "free trade in goods", though economically it's the services which are more important. Britain's historic position has been to assert that free trade in services within the EU itself is insufficiently free; the type of "free" trade that Korea gets would - I suspect - be nowhere near free enough to satisfy us. Not denying the possibility of a bilateral agreement, just don't think Korea is a good example.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.0 -
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
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Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU0 -
When the PM says he thinks we might be better off leaving, the public are reassured it wouldn't be a disaster.. hence UKIP want a BOO PMTheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 2m
RT @carldinnen: Exclusive ITV/ComRes Poll finds support for staying in the EU dropping over weekend; Stay 36% (down 4), Go 43% (up 1),...
Its not to do with Cameron personally, just the added clout that an authority figure gives a campaign
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DavidL....
Agreed, The UK's newly acquired vast labour pool gives us essentially a much larger CC engine.
I wonder how quick growth would have to be before pressure started to build up. 5%?? 6?? .
Chinese levels??0 -
Completely logical given it makes the rich richer and the poor poorerTheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU0 -
I have never said that, and you know full well I've never said that. You're not exactly knocking back Richard Tyndall's dishonesty accusation right now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
The EU can of course negotiate trade deals with other countries. It's just they're a low fewer and further between than what we could get outside the EU. Iceland recently signed one with China. EFTA are soon to pass one with India, while the EU-India negotiations are at a standstill. The EU-Canada deal was supposed to be near finished months ago but we're still waiting on it, while EFTA has had a deal with them for more than a decade.0 -
You are indeed correct that what Korea gets in services is smaller than what we currently get. All I am arguing is that that difference vis a vis the EU is substantially smaller than the benefit from signing FTAs with Brazil, India, NAFTA, Australia, Singapore etc.MyBurningEars said:
There are many more degrees of "free trade in services" than there are in "free trade in goods", though economically it's the services which are more important. Britain's historic position has been to assert that free trade in services within the EU itself is insufficiently free; the type of "free" trade that Korea gets would - I suspect - be nowhere near free enough to satisfy us. Not denying the possibility of a bilateral agreement, just don't think Korea is a good example.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.0 -
Andy Murray is 12 with Betfair to win Wimbledon without losing a set:
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.1144007680 -
Suarez apologises for that bite.... despite previous claims by all Uruguay it didn't happen.
R5 has been covering how his wife is his world and it seems she's got him seeing sense again...alluded to in the story
Luis Suarez statement: "After several days of being home with my family I have had the opportunity to regain my calm and reflect about the the reality of what occurred during the Italy-Uruguay match on 24 June 2014.
"Independent from the fallout and the contradicting declarations that have surfaced during these past days, all of which have been without the intention of interfering with the good performance of my national team, the truth is that my colleague Giorgio Chiellini suffered the physical result of a bite in the collision he suffered with me.
"For this I deeply regret what occurred. I apologise to Giorgio Chiellini and the entire football family. I vow to the public that there will never again be another incident like this."
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We don't currently have a free market in services within the EU, largely because some countries refuse to comply with the rules. Whether our de facto position would be better if we were outside the EU is difficult to say but worth noting that, even in the EU and despite what the federalists say, it is not correct to say that the 4 freedoms are observed by all EU members.
That I think is one of the problems with the EU as it is: we're not even getting all the advantages we ought to be getting by being a full member and there are currently moves afoot to restrict even those freedoms for full members e.g. in relation to financial services. If we don't get the advantages of being a member why stay?0 -
Posh is not synonymous with rich.isam said:
Completely logical given it makes the rich richer and the poor poorerTheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU0 -
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'0 -
Tish and pish, Mr. Zims. The UK invokes article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and then sits down to negotiate. EFTA/EEA agreements may or may not inform the discussions, but only a complete idiot negotiating on the UK side would allow him/herself to be corralled by them.john_zims said:@Richard_Tyndall
'You falsely claim that we would need to have atrade treaty with the EU. Of course that treaty already exists between the EU and EFTA/EEA. As I say,. unless you are claiming that the EU can pick and choose which members of EFTA it does business with your case is garbage.'
Wrong,we would have to re-apply for EFTA membership,a separate trade treaty or associate membership like Turkey.
'Thank you for your email. Free movement of persons is indeed an integral part of the EEA Agreement. As you will have seen in Annexes 5 and 8 to the EEA Agreement, the EEA EFTA States (Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) have incorporated EU legislation on Free Movement of Persons into the EEA Agreement. Most notably Regulation 492/2011on freedom of movement for workers within the Union and Directive 2004/38 on the right of citizens of the Union and their family members to move and reside freely within the territory of the Member States. This means that nationals of the EEA EFTA States have the same right as EU citizens to move, work and reside anywhere in the EU (subject to the relevant EU legislation). Equally, EU citizens have the right to move, work and reside in the EEA EFTA States, although certain sectoral adaptations apply to Liechtenstein due to its small size and special geographic situation.
Nonetheless, please be aware that in order to be a party to the EEA Agreement it is necessary either to be a member of the EU or of EFTA (See Article 128 of the EEA Agreement). If the UK were to leave the EU, it would be neither and therefore it would no longer be a party to the EEA Agreement. The UK was indeed a member of EFTA from 1960 until 1973 but relinquished its membership in order to join the EU (or EEC as it was called at the time). Thus, if the UK left the EU but wanted to remain a party to the EEA Agreement it would first have to apply to re-join EFTA and then apply to become a party to the EEA Agreement as a member of EFTA.
If the UK said, free movement of peoples is off the agenda then it would be so. The other side would want something in return, fair enough, but please don't let us pretend that UK could not negotiate its own path.0 -
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.0 -
Obviously the usual suspects will say Cameron is a lying toad and the Eurocrats a load of shysters and we should therefore leave. But then, they were always going to say that anyway. Equally the Clegg end of the spectrum will be voting to stay in. Those in the middle will have to take a view; they may well ask for certainty, but there's a limit to the certainty either side will be able to provide.NickPalmer said:Fair enough! But I think the voters may want Mr Cameron to offer greater certainty on whether or not he would ask them again when the deal actually materialised (if it did) or after N years (if it didn't). Mr Farage could as you observe be asked the reverse question!
On balance it's pretty clear that the side with the most difficulty in this respect are the BOOers, partly because they don't agree amongst themselves what they want, but more because it will be a choice between what is on the table, and some unknown position after we leave. That's why I've always thought that getting an Out result would be very hard. That remains the case IMO even though my personal view is that the balance of the argument is shifting towards Out.
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taffys said:
DavidL....
Agreed, The UK's newly acquired vast labour pool gives us essentially a much larger CC engine.
I wonder how quick growth would have to be before pressure started to build up. 5%?? 6?? .
Chinese levels??
Labour is no longer going to be the restraining factor it has been in the past. So I suspect the next problem will be a credit bubble or an infrastructure that simply cannot cope and starts to make economic growth too difficult or international disruption.
At the moment the credit bubble looks favourite but I expect growth forecasts for next year to be increased as well in due course.
Of course if we really want to screw things up we could always elect Ed PM. That would do it.
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As this guy reminds us:TheScreamingEagles said:
Posh is not synonymous with rich.isam said:
Completely logical given it makes the rich richer and the poor poorerTheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/revealed-lottery-lout-tells-how-20336890 -
That is true, London liberals moan about the EU only when it affects their income.Alanbrooke said:
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.0 -
Spouse or sponsors?Scrapheap_as_was said:Suarez apologises for that bite.... despite previous claims by all Uruguay it didn't happen.
R5 has been covering how his wife is his world and it seems she's got him seeing sense again...alluded to in the story
Luis Suarez statement: "After several days of being home with my family I have had the opportunity to regain my calm and reflect about the the reality of what occurred during the Italy-Uruguay match on 24 June 2014.
"Independent from the fallout and the contradicting declarations that have surfaced during these past days, all of which have been without the intention of interfering with the good performance of my national team, the truth is that my colleague Giorgio Chiellini suffered the physical result of a bite in the collision he suffered with me.
"For this I deeply regret what occurred. I apologise to Giorgio Chiellini and the entire football family. I vow to the public that there will never again be another incident like this."
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Sorry,. I'm genuinely confused. I say we'd need to negotiate access for services, and that might not be easy, and you countered with South Korea, as though they had the kind of access we would want. Now you seem to be rowing back from that.Socrates said:
I have never said that, and you know full well I've never said that. You're not exactly knocking back Richard Tyndall's dishonesty accusation right now..Richard_Nabavi said:
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
It seems to me that you are the one who is, as you call it, 'dishonest', or (as I would put it), 'wrong'.0 -
Thought for the Day? It would be very ironic if....
The EC Heads of Govt decided to ignore Cameron's rquest over Juncker because they looked at the polls and thought Cameron was an ex-PM and would be gone within a year.
But because of their refusal, in the UK the poll/s changed and Cameron then looked like winning....
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Hey - I'm a London liberal and firmly on your side!Speedy said:
That is true, London liberals moan about the EU only when it affects their income.Alanbrooke said:
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.0 -
On the Suarez apology.
Rory Smith @RorySmithTimes 2m
"Of course I didn't cheat on you darling. But I accept that she may have suffered the physical effects of a penis."0 -
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Isn't it the same with most people?Speedy said:
That is true, London liberals moan about the EU only when it affects their income.Alanbrooke said:
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.
One of the big complaints about the EU is that free movement of people has depressed incomes.
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For those that follow the middle east:
Problems growing in Israel tonight, the 3 israeli kidnapped teens have been executed and the israeli government is preparing to invade the west bank tonight to punish the palestinian authority.0 -
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.
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3 Missing Israeli students found dead
http://www.haaretz.com/0 -
I am not sure we would want the kind of free trade agreement that Iceland has with China.Socrates said:
I have never said that, and you know full well I've never said that. You're not exactly knocking back Richard Tyndall's dishonesty accusation right now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
The EU can of course negotiate trade deals with other countries. It's just they're a low fewer and further between than what we could get outside the EU. Iceland recently signed one with China. EFTA are soon to pass one with India, while the EU-India negotiations are at a standstill. The EU-Canada deal was supposed to be near finished months ago but we're still waiting on it, while EFTA has had a deal with them for more than a decade.
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Probably Barcelona made him do it, as a pre-requisite of the transfer.SouthamObserver said:
Spouse or sponsors?Scrapheap_as_was said:Suarez apologises for that bite.... despite previous claims by all Uruguay it didn't happen.
R5 has been covering how his wife is his world and it seems she's got him seeing sense again...alluded to in the story
Luis Suarez statement: "After several days of being home with my family I have had the opportunity to regain my calm and reflect about the the reality of what occurred during the Italy-Uruguay match on 24 June 2014.
"Independent from the fallout and the contradicting declarations that have surfaced during these past days, all of which have been without the intention of interfering with the good performance of my national team, the truth is that my colleague Giorgio Chiellini suffered the physical result of a bite in the collision he suffered with me.
"For this I deeply regret what occurred. I apologise to Giorgio Chiellini and the entire football family. I vow to the public that there will never again be another incident like this."
My usually reliable sources tell me, Liverpool will sell him for £80million or £50 million and Sanchez.0 -
I sould have put it as London LD.Socrates said:
Hey - I'm a London liberal and firmly on your side!Speedy said:
That is true, London liberals moan about the EU only when it affects their income.Alanbrooke said:
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.0 -
we're suffering from a lack of passionate Nats and the sheer tedium of 3 years.Carnyx said:
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.0 -
Hebron is going to be barbecued.MikeK said:3 Missing Israeli students found dead
http://www.haaretz.com/0 -
Sorry but this is utter nonsense. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni -Sunnis in Iraq are committed to secular governance, not blood-drenched slaughter in the cause of a medieval Islamic Caliphate. The partition of Iraq (and Syria) is Western (read American) policy; it breaks up Iran's 'shia crescent' of states opposed to the US and aligned with Russia and China, and more importantly prevents there ever being an Iran/Iraq/Syria oil pipeline.MrJones said:
In terms of geopolitics it's not that big a deal imo. If the Sunni Arabs in Syria and Iraq want self-determination as a group that's not unreasonable in itself.
Domestically though I think you're right it's likely to crystallize the stuff the media and political class have been playing down for years i.e. grooming gangs, illegal workers, electoral stuff etc.
ISIS (a Saudi funded entity -yes, those same Saudis who Prince Charles does the sword dance for) are in fact doing the US' work for them -not the first time the US has used such groups to fight for it, and I'm sure it won't be the last. We have to understand that to many in the world, WE are the bad guys. Until the veil falls from our eyes and we actually see the geopolitical struggle going on all over the world for what it is, any discussions on these issues have an oddly peripheral and redundant tone.0 -
If you mean the probability of me personally voting to leave, yeah, maybe something like that. The Juncker stuff accounts for a small part of the shift, mainly because of what it says about the shifting balance of power within the EU rather than the specific candidate.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
So where would you say the balance lies post-Juncker? 55-45 towards in?
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Can I just say Vive la France!!0
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Polls cost money, I understand a few of the commissioning media organisations are saving their polling budgets for the last 2 months of the campaign.Carnyx said:
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.
I'm not sure there's much ambiguity in the question,
Do you think that each of the following is good or bad for Britain?
Scotland remaining part of the UK.0 -
Mmm! I see BTW the Evening Scottish indy debate has been enlivened by a demo for English Parliament, bloke with duct tape over his mouth and a St George's flag. Another 3-5 years for the English indyref perhaps, the way the pols are all of a sudden talking about federalism.Alanbrooke said:
we're suffering from a lack of passionate Nats and the sheer tedium of 3 years.Carnyx said:
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.
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- The dishonesty I was referring to was when your statement, "you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries". I will put this down as a mistake.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry,. I'm genuinely confused. I say we'd need to negotiate access for services, and that might not be easy, and you countered with South Korea, as though they had the kind of access we would want. Now you seem to be rowing back from that.Socrates said:
I have never said that, and you know full well I've never said that. You're not exactly knocking back Richard Tyndall's dishonesty accusation right now..Richard_Nabavi said:
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
It seems to me that you are the one who is, as you call it, 'dishonest', or (as I would put it), 'wrong'.
- South Korea does indeed have the sort of goods and services FTA that we would like. I actually think we could get slightly better than Korea, but this would be a good minimum
- The EU does sign FTAs with other countries (Korea, Mexico etc), just not enough of them, and not fast enough
- If we were outside the EU, we could sign these a lot quicker, because a bilateral agreement is simpler than getting 28 parties on our side of the table to agree.
Clear?0 -
I'd be quite happy with federalism and think it will be one of the likely outcomes post indyref. The UK is overcentralised and enough people are fed up with the Londoncentric nature of the state.Carnyx said:
Mmm! I see BTW the Evening Scottish indy debate has been enlivened by a demo for English Parliament, bloke with duct tape over his mouth and a St George's flag. Another 3-5 years for the English indyref perhaps, the way the pols are all of a sudden talking about federalism.Alanbrooke said:
we're suffering from a lack of passionate Nats and the sheer tedium of 3 years.Carnyx said:
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.0 -
I actually think a China FTA would be one of the more difficult ones. NAFTA would be easiest - we could join on existing terms. Australia and Brazil I think could also be quickly negotiated. India and Japan would follow.SouthamObserver said:
I am not sure we would want the kind of free trade agreement that Iceland has with China.Socrates said:
I have never said that, and you know full well I've never said that. You're not exactly knocking back Richard Tyndall's dishonesty accusation right now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hang on, I thought you said we had to be outside the EU to negotiate trade agreements with other countries? Now you're saying we can sell financial and other services to South Korea without any restrictions? I'm confused.Socrates said:South Korea has free trade in services with the EU. I am sure we would be able to do the same thing.
The EU can of course negotiate trade deals with other countries. It's just they're a low fewer and further between than what we could get outside the EU. Iceland recently signed one with China. EFTA are soon to pass one with India, while the EU-India negotiations are at a standstill. The EU-Canada deal was supposed to be near finished months ago but we're still waiting on it, while EFTA has had a deal with them for more than a decade.0 -
Nope deadly serious.You proved your dishonesty only a few days ago during the debate on snooping when you tried to deny your position even though I linked to it directly from your comments on June 4th.Richard_Nabavi said:<
LOL! Funniest post of the week.
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Cameron could possibly give himself a massive boost by changing his stance to 'negotiate, but out if there's no change'. This probably is the consensus view of the British public at the moment. It's a bit odd that no political leader represents that view.
I happened to be in Luxembourg at the weekend. It was really quite interesting talking to those that live there about these issues. It is also quite interesting as to how clearly 'ever closer union' the view is there. And yet they still retain a definite Luxembourg view - it's a bit like a secret society in that most of the people that actually live and work there (amongst whom are my friends) aren't in the loop.
Somehow Cameron has finished up looking quite good in all this. Ed has finished up as looking awful (admittedly I only really read the Telegraph's coverage).
Overall the developments have to be a retrograde step and it's not a comfortable place to be when those steps are seen positively. The EU has to think about how they're going to do a seriously good PR job on the UK populace if they want us to stay - and they do in my view rather need us to stay in.
It seems GE2015 will possibly be all about Europe - it seems to me that all parties would benefit from taking some of the steam out of the issue by all agreeing to a referendum. As no-one in the UK (as far as I can see) wants more federalism just now, and everyone wants some degree of reform then strengthening the negotiating hand seems a no-brainer to me.
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Apologies Ishmael, I was indeed referring to the EEA. I have been trying to work and post at the same time. Never a clever thing to do.Ishmael_X said:
But it can do exactly that. What prevents it, given that it has no agreement whatever with EFTA qua EFTA? And if you mean EEA, as I have said before, you will get a free movement of people clause.
And this is meant to be your chosen specialised subject?
But the point remains the same. As original EEA signatories independent of the EU (which also signed in its own right) we will still be able to trade as usual.
And as I have said on here often before, whilst I have issues about immigration, I do not share UKIP's hang ups on this and it is not a reason for me personally for us leaving the EU.0 -
1) "death rates were lower than feared" != "the bees are just fine"Swiss_Bob said:Found the study on bees.
It's the first major study and the bees are just fine.
What is apparently not fine is the banning of neonicotinoids because their replacements are far, far worse. Though I think that was in the other article I read on this study.
A pioneering European Union survey into the impact of pests and diseases on honey bees found death rates were lower than feared, in part countering concerns about the collapse of colonies of the crop-pollinating insects.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/07/us-eu-bees-idUSBREA361JH20140407
2) it's an EU report so follow the money / lobbyists before believing
3) i wonder if the ban on stubble burning led to an increased use of worse pesticides?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stubble_burning
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@Socrates - Fair enough.
On your last point, it might be easier to sign more bilateral agreements on our own, but the other side of the coin is that they are less attractive to the other side - obviously a free trade agreement with a market of 740 million people is a bigger prize than an agreement with a market of less than a tenth that size, so it would be harder to get other countries to engage (and maybe the terms would therefore be less attractive or less comprehensive). So I'm not sure that your premise, that we'd end up with a better position overall in terms of free trade agreements, is correct. It's an assertion, which might or might not be right.0 -
But unless it is done evenly and consistently we'll have the WLQ all over again (even ignoring the situation before 1997). Imagine London MPs being in a similar position to Scottish ones .... Oh well, we'll see what comes of it. I presume things have gone quiet for the hols and the Commonwealth Games anyway.Alanbrooke said:
I'd be quite happy with federalism and think it will be one of the likely outcomes post indyref. The UK is overcentralised and enough people are fed up with the Londoncentric nature of the state.Carnyx said:
Mmm! I see BTW the Evening Scottish indy debate has been enlivened by a demo for English Parliament, bloke with duct tape over his mouth and a St George's flag. Another 3-5 years for the English indyref perhaps, the way the pols are all of a sudden talking about federalism.Alanbrooke said:
we're suffering from a lack of passionate Nats and the sheer tedium of 3 years.Carnyx said:
I'm surprised you haven't commented on the ambiguity of that question - which, at least as quoted, is one to which a great many Yes campaigners as well as No campaigners could reply positively, with entire intellectual consistency.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m
ComRes/ITV News: 54% of Scots and 67% of English say Scotland remaining part of the UK 'is good for Britain'
Have there really been no indyref polls recently? Perhaps it doesn't matter as the discussions here really are bearing out a wise PBer, whose name I shamefully forget, [edit] who said quite some time ago that the Scottish referendum is a practice run for UK out of Europe.
0 -
Except that you didn't.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope deadly serious.You proved your dishonesty only a few days ago during the debate on snooping when you tried to deny your position even though I linked to it directly from your comments on June 4th.
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I think you are right there, but it probably would do rich liberals a favour (in regards to their intellectual honesty) if mass EU immigration provided competition for their jobs that drastically altered their wages and the area they live in a negative way.. A good test of their progressive valuesSouthamObserver said:
Isn't it the same with most people?Speedy said:
That is true, London liberals moan about the EU only when it affects their income.Alanbrooke said:
Oh don't excite yourself Richard, it's manufacturing and as we know you think it doesn't count. Whereas if the City were to be challenged and the wide boys have their bonuses cut you'd have us out before we could say BOO.Richard_Nabavi said:
So do you disagree with me? You think that, if we were to leave the EU, we'd adopt UK-specific vehicle standards instead of EU ones? If so, why?Alanbrooke said:
you're busking Richard.
One of the big complaints about the EU is that free movement of people has depressed incomes.
When I was at Brighton Uni in 2011 we overheard the teachers, almost all of whom were Marxists that preached intellectually pure arguments, complaining in the pub about tuition fees being trebled;
"Because less kids are signing up and I've got a mortgage to pay"
Rather a different motive than;
"education should be free to everyone, it enhances the nation as a whole"
... the line they used when they encouraged the students to match in protest!0 -
I am not talking on behalf of UKIP. Immigration, whilst I would like to see more controls, is not a prime reason for me to want us to leave the EU.john_zims said:Richard_Tyndall
'You ignore the basic point I made that we would still have membership of the single market via EFTA of which we are an original independent signatory quite separate to the EU.'
Are you aware that EFTA membership guarantees the free movement of people,surely the last thing kippers want?0 -
Someone is feeling has got that end of term feeling:
Austin Mitchell @AVMitchell2010
Follow
Achtung!Junkergramme No 1.UKIp verboten.Cameron schweinhund.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/austin-mitchell-tweets-nazi-jibe-jean-claud-juncker_n_5542912.html?14041242760 -
Murray through!!0
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Yes I did and you simply ignored it because it proved your dishonesty.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that you didn't.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope deadly serious.You proved your dishonesty only a few days ago during the debate on snooping when you tried to deny your position even though I linked to it directly from your comments on June 4th.
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Perhaps I missed it. Please repost, and I shall be delighted to apologise if you are right.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes I did and you simply ignored it because it proved your dishonesty.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that you didn't.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope deadly serious.You proved your dishonesty only a few days ago during the debate on snooping when you tried to deny your position even though I linked to it directly from your comments on June 4th.
I don't expect to have to do so.
Alternatively you could stop spamming the site with unfounded accusations against my integrity, which I am sure bore everyone else if only because of their absurdity.
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June 4th, the Theresa May thread. Many posts from you supporting the government mass snooping on the public during an argument with Socrates and myself amongst others.Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps I missed it. Please repost, and I shall be delighted to apologise if you are right.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes I did and you simply ignored it because it proved your dishonesty.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that you didn't.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope deadly serious.You proved your dishonesty only a few days ago during the debate on snooping when you tried to deny your position even though I linked to it directly from your comments on June 4th.
I don't expect to have to do so.
Alternatively you could stop spamming the site with unfounded accusations against my integrity, which I am sure bore everyone else if only because of their absurdity.
Accusations well founded.
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"Sorry but this is utter nonsense. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni -Sunnis in Iraq are committed to secular governance, not blood-drenched slaughter in the cause of a medieval Islamic Caliphate."Luckyguy1983 said:
Sorry but this is utter nonsense. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni -Sunnis in Iraq are committed to secular governance, not blood-drenched slaughter in the cause of a medieval Islamic Caliphate. The partition of Iraq (and Syria) is Western (read American) policy; it breaks up Iran's 'shia crescent' of states opposed to the US and aligned with Russia and China, and more importantly prevents there ever being an Iran/Iraq/Syria oil pipeline.MrJones said:
In terms of geopolitics it's not that big a deal imo. If the Sunni Arabs in Syria and Iraq want self-determination as a group that's not unreasonable in itself.
Domestically though I think you're right it's likely to crystallize the stuff the media and political class have been playing down for years i.e. grooming gangs, illegal workers, electoral stuff etc.
ISIS (a Saudi funded entity -yes, those same Saudis who Prince Charles does the sword dance for) are in fact doing the US' work for them -not the first time the US has used such groups to fight for it, and I'm sure it won't be the last. We have to understand that to many in the world, WE are the bad guys. Until the veil falls from our eyes and we actually see the geopolitical struggle going on all over the world for what it is, any discussions on these issues have an oddly peripheral and redundant tone.
Sure. The Isis/jihadist thing is just a layer on top of what is mostly a straightforward ethnic dispute where the people in eastern Syria and the people in northern/western Iraq have a more common identity than they have with the west of Syria or the south of Iraq.
"The partition of Iraq (and Syria) is Western (read American) policy; it breaks up Iran's 'shia crescent' of states opposed to the US and aligned with Russia and China, and more importantly prevents there ever being an Iran/Iraq/Syria oil pipeline."
I agree the west - via the gulf states - are stirring this all up to divide and rule but the underlying ethno-sectarian divisions are there to be stirred: Alawite (et al) Syrian coastal strip, Sunni Arab chunk over eastern Syria and western Iraq, Kurdish chunk, Shia Arab chunk in south Iraq.
"We have to understand that to many in the world, WE are the bad guys."
I agree with that bit. I'm just wondering if the divide and rule in this case might accidentally be for the best in the long run.
edit: not saying it is btw, just wondering0 -
Many posts, yes. But not a single one of them saying that I supported the reading of the content of emails without a warrant, or that I defended hacking by newspapers, which were the two specific things you accused me of.Richard_Tyndall said:June 4th, the Theresa May thread. Many posts from you supporting the government mass snooping on the public during an argument with Socrates and myself amongst others.
Still, it is clear by now to everyone that you are a bore and misrepresent me, so I don't propose to waster further time on the matter.
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You see I like Richard Nabavi, but I also like Richard Tyndall.. there's only one way to decide it..
FIIIIIGHHHTT!!!!
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/309221/#Comment_3092210 -
Apols if already posted. Dougie Carswell has just tweeted this link.
For this we have to thank the opposition by the British PM David Cameron who wanted a open vote. Even though this was certainly not his intention, he has contributed to the democratization of the EU and, arguably, to further European integration.
http://federalistparty.eu/blog/2014/06/27/a-new-democracy/0 -
Australia and Canada certainly haven't struggled to sign a lot of these in recent years.Richard_Nabavi said:@Socrates - Fair enough.
On your last point, it might be easier to sign more bilateral agreements on our own, but the other side of the coin is that they are less attractive to the other side - obviously a free trade agreement with a market of 740 million people is a bigger prize than an agreement with a market of less than a tenth that size, so it would be harder to get other countries to engage (and maybe the terms would therefore be less attractive or less comprehensive). So I'm not sure that your premise, that we'd end up with a better position overall in terms of free trade agreements, is correct. It's an assertion, which might or might not be right.0 -
John, been looking at this a little more.john_zims said:@Richard_Tyndall
'You falsely claim that we would need to have atrade treaty with the EU. Of course that treaty already exists between the EU and EFTA/EEA. As I say,. unless you are claiming that the EU can pick and choose which members of EFTA it does business with your case is garbage.'
Wrong,we would have to re-apply for EFTA membership,a separate trade treaty or associate membership like Turkey.
'Thank you for your email. Free movement of persons is indeed an integral part of the EEA Agreement. As you will have seen in Annexes 5 and 8 to the EEA Agreement, the EEA EFTA States (Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) have incorporated EU legislation on Free Movement of Persons into the EEA Agreement. Most notably Regulation 492/2011on freedom of movement for workers within the Union and Directive 2004/38 on the right of citizens of the Union and their family members to move and reside freely within the territory of the Member States. This means that nationals of the EEA EFTA States have the same right as EU citizens to move, work and reside anywhere in the EU (subject to the relevant EU legislation). Equally, EU citizens have the right to move, work and reside in the EEA EFTA States, although certain sectoral adaptations apply to Liechtenstein due to its small size and special geographic situation.
Nonetheless, please be aware that in order to be a party to the EEA Agreement it is necessary either to be a member of the EU or of EFTA (See Article 128 of the EEA Agreement). If the UK were to leave the EU, it would be neither and therefore it would no longer be a party to the EEA Agreement. The UK was indeed a member of EFTA from 1960 until 1973 but relinquished its membership in order to join the EU (or EEC as it was called at the time). Thus, if the UK left the EU but wanted to remain a party to the EEA Agreement it would first have to apply to re-join EFTA and then apply to become a party to the EEA Agreement as a member of EFTA.
You are quoting a posting made by a Lib Dem councilor who claimed a colleague had received the email from an official (unnamed) at EFTA.
Given that Article 128 of the EEA agreement makes no reference what-so ever to what happens if someone leaves the EU (it covers only the fact that someone joining the EU shall also become a member of EEA) and explicitly does not say that a state has to be a member of the EU or EFTA to be part of the EEA then I am afraid I have some considerable doubt about the veracity of the email you quote.0 -
Trebor @Trebor_1872 · 36m
Absolutely disgusted and sure a lot of people around the Stirling area will be embarrassed with this image pic.twitter.com/WNpl77Rhwd
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Just so that I understand your position on government surveillance, is this correct?Richard_Nabavi said:
Many posts, yes. But not a single one of them saying that I supported the reading of the content of emails without a warrant, or that I defended hacking by newspapers, which were the two specific things you accused me of.Richard_Tyndall said:June 4th, the Theresa May thread. Many posts from you supporting the government mass snooping on the public during an argument with Socrates and myself amongst others.
Still, it is clear by now to everyone that you are a bore and misrepresent me, so I don't propose to waster further time on the matter.
You support freedom for the GCHQ to look at who, where and when people are emailing/telephoning/social messaging/webcaming without the need for a warrant or prove connection to an investigation. However, you oppose them doing the same with the content of emails, telephone calls and social messages. What is your position on them viewing your web browsing?0 -
Terrible proposal by Osborne today to merge NI and income tax. Rather than ending National Insurance, we should be returning it to its original principles, ie the pension you get, the unemployment benefits you get and your healthcare coverage is largely based on the contributions you have made out of your pay packet. If Osborne pushes this through it will instead create a welfare system based entirely on hand outs without anything in return. Indeed, it will actually be more leftwing than Miliband has proposed, he has at least promised to give the highest welfare payments to those who have made the highest NI contributions.It would end contributions based JSA and the state pension, effectively replacing it with a Brownite credit and undo all IDS’ hard work.0
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Has that been determined by filtering through the A/B/C1 social class categories?TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU
It's an interesting observation, if true. I am regularly placed in the "posh" category, I presume due to my accent, conservative dressing habits and private school education. However, I'd imagine Conservative voters would be higher amongst this group than the broader population. And that's probably only 5-10% of the UK population, if that.
But the wider public might perceive "posh" much more broadly: anyone who enunciates with no strong regional accent, eats healthily, is redbrick university educated, shops selectively and enjoys (or talks about enjoying) the high arts & culture.
The latter category is much more left-wing than the former.0 -
OK, so you lose 2/3 of the folk that voted for you and yet conclude that it is not that bad and treat it as good news. More evidence of the "a mere flesh wound" mentality in the party of black knights?
http://www.libdemvoice.org/well-actually-students-still-quite-like-the-liberal-democrats-41233.html0 -
Flags now, books next? We know some Nationalist's reaction to criticism....isam said:Trebor @Trebor_1872 · 36m
Absolutely disgusted and sure a lot of people around the Stirling area will be embarrassed with this image pic.twitter.com/WNpl77Rhwd
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Yes, subject obviously to a whole set of safeguards about who has access to that information and what they are allowed to do with it. I see it in much the same way that I see the (draconian) powers of HMRC; it's a necessary evil in the real world because the alternative is worse.Socrates said:Just so that I understand your position on government surveillance, is this correct?
You support freedom for the GCHQ to look at who, where and when people are emailing/telephoning/social messaging/webcaming without the need for a warrant or prove connection to an investigation.
Web browsing is not private. If I look at my own company's web logs, I can see who (down to IP address) has been accessing the site, and usually from which previous site or the particular Google search they used. Access to certain web sites is clearly something potentially of interest to the intelligence services, so, yes, combining those two factors, I do think that, subject again to proper safeguards and oversight, they should be able to track web metadata.Socrates said:However, you oppose them doing the same with the content of emails, telephone calls and social messages. What is your position on them viewing your web browsing?
Edit: Incidentally, it's probably more Google than GCHQ that you should be worried about in respect of web privacy.
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When, where and by whom was that image taken/flag burnt? Could have been anyone as fr as I can see at the moment It's not in recent Google image searches for Bannockburn and I would have seen any reports of a serious political demo by now. The only prior image I can find suggests it may be a Rangers vs Celtic thing - note that the missing centre of the flag means it could be one of several variations popular with the fans.isam said:Trebor @Trebor_1872 · 36m
Absolutely disgusted and sure a lot of people around the Stirling area will be embarrassed with this image pic.twitter.com/WNpl77Rhwd
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Smarmeron Good quip, but this proposal is a poll tax in the making, terrible idea!0
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New maps from Election Data, showing "the distribution of support for each of the main parties at the European elections in 2014."
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/two-oppositions-article-for-times.html
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A poll with the Tories in the lead and the word crossover not mentioned once. What's happening?! Saying that, probably an outlier, a 5pt move to any party in any direction seems a bit much.0
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Yes, it has been by filtered social class categories.Casino_Royale said:
Has that been determined by filtering through the A/B/C1 social class categories?TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU
It's an interesting observation, if true. I am regularly placed in the "posh" category, I presume due to my accent, conservative dressing habits and private school education. However, I'd imagine Conservative voters would be higher amongst this group than the broader population. And that's probably only 5-10% of the UK population, if that.
But the wider public might perceive "posh" much more broadly: anyone who enunciates with no strong regional accent, eats healthily, is redbrick university educated, shops selectively and enjoys (or talks about enjoying) the high arts & culture.
The latter category is much more left-wing than the former.
I dislike the term posh.
I too get lumped as a posh boy aristo, by virtue of my private education, but my accent is very northern.0 -
O/T
ISIS claim to have acquired some Scud missiles.
twitter.com/HalaJaber/status/483678997193424896/photo/10 -
I'm such a nerd, I love maps like these.anotherDave said:New maps from Election Data, showing "the distribution of support for each of the main parties at the European elections in 2014."
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/two-oppositions-article-for-times.html0 -
Although ElectionData is usually excellent, they did make a couple of errors recently: for example they tweeted that Bolsover was the only council where the Labour vote declined in the Euros between 2009 and 2014, when in fact it increased by 5 percentage points.anotherDave said:New maps from Election Data, showing "the distribution of support for each of the main parties at the European elections in 2014."
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/two-oppositions-article-for-times.html0 -
I don't understand the proposals, at the early stage they are, as moving to a "Brownite credit". On the one hand the new system would still allow for the key criteria to be continued, and on the other I would not mind if we did finally move away from contributions.HYUFD said:Terrible proposal by Osborne today to merge NI and income tax. Rather than ending National Insurance, we should be returning it to its original principles, ie the pension you get, the unemployment benefits you get and your healthcare coverage is largely based on the contributions you have made out of your pay packet. If Osborne pushes this through it will instead create a welfare system based entirely on hand outs without anything in return. Indeed, it will actually be more leftwing than Miliband has proposed, he has at least promised to give the highest welfare payments to those who have made the highest NI contributions.It would end contributions based JSA and the state pension, effectively replacing it with a Brownite credit and undo all IDS’ hard work.
In my opinion, systems are either based on need or desert, of which contributions are one way of dealing with the later.
If you look at healthcare, which you imply might be properly a question of desert, I would consider entirely a question of need. If it were not so, the drug user, chronic alcoholic who fails to change his ways, or the thief who gets electrocuted stealing cable might all be denied treatment, but that seems entirely alien to me. Of the three, in my opinion, this is the clearest.
I must admit I do not fully understand how JSA is paid, but it appears you either (not both?) receive contributory or means tested JSA - one desert, one need; in the case of the state pension it retains its close links to contributions. But in both cases you can see the cracks: the government feels unable to deny support to the out-of-work person who has not paid contributions; nor the stay-at-home parent for whom the government now provides the top-up to help ensure they too do not miss out.
Both must be taken in the context of all the support that individuals receive from the state, meaning that it may not be as significant to deny a contributory benefit to an individual. Nevertheless true contributory benefits are rare.0 -
Was mentioned on the previous thread a few times.RobD said:A poll with the Tories in the lead and the word crossover not mentioned once. What's happening?! Saying that, probably an outlier, a 5pt move to any party in any direction seems a bit much.
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ComRes referendum poll tables.Casino_Royale said:
Has that been determined by filtering through the A/B/C1 social class categories?TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 23s
ComRes/ITV News: generally speaking the posher you are the more likely you are to vote to remain in the EU
It's an interesting observation, if true. I am regularly placed in the "posh" category, I presume due to my accent, conservative dressing habits and private school education. However, I'd imagine Conservative voters would be higher amongst this group than the broader population. And that's probably only 5-10% of the UK population, if that.
But the wider public might perceive "posh" much more broadly: anyone who enunciates with no strong regional accent, eats healthily, is redbrick university educated, shops selectively and enjoys (or talks about enjoying) the high arts & culture.
The latter category is much more left-wing than the former.
http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_EU__30th_June_2014.pdf0 -
I get lumped as posh because of the success of my comprehensive education.TheScreamingEagles said:
I too get lumped as a posh boy aristo, by virtue of my private education, but my accent is very northern.
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Labour reduced to a few islands of urban misery ? So much for one nation. Even the Kipper support is more equally distributed.anotherDave said:New maps from Election Data, showing "the distribution of support for each of the main parties at the European elections in 2014."
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/two-oppositions-article-for-times.html
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GeoffM Well removing the contributory, insurance based approach to welfare, whereby your state pension and contributory JSA entitlement depends on how much NI you have paid in, and replacing it with welfare funded entirely by income tax will create an entirely means tested welfare system, increase dependency and lead to the government increasing its spending, not cutting it0
