politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the wee
NOTE: I’m out this evening and will not be posting tonight surveys until later. As well as YouGov I’m expecting Opinium for the Observer which has some interesting tactical voting questions. The sample was asked if people were voting for a party or against one and, if so, which.
Comments
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The most recent Euro poll was encouraging for the LDs, putting them on 11% compared to 13.7% in the 2009 Euros.0
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FPT: F1: trying to find a decent bet... it's not easy. The winner without Hamilton/Rosberg market on Ladbrokes may have some potential.
On-topic: pretty good for Clegg, but most people still thought he lost.0 -
Where is Flash Harry , as he cannot prove or even have the courage to print his scurrilous innuendos, I presume he has ran away.0
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MD , he looked and sounded like a second hand car salesman and is not as trustworthy as one. Looked and sounded very shifty, the man is a charlatan.Morris_Dancer said:FPT: F1: trying to find a decent bet... it's not easy. The winner without Hamilton/Rosberg market on Ladbrokes may have some potential.
On-topic: pretty good for Clegg, but most people still thought he lost.0 -
Mr. G, you mean Clegg, right?
Sounds like Blair. Sometimes a certain rough edge is more reassuring than someone who's so smooth they're slippery.0 -
OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.0 -
Exactly , you just know he is lyingMorris_Dancer said:Mr. G, you mean Clegg, right?
Sounds like Blair. Sometimes a certain rough edge is more reassuring than someone who's so smooth they're slippery.0 -
Well he didn't pull polling figures from nowhere, so motivation hardly matters, does it? Statistics are not definitive of anything, but their appeal is that you can interpret them yourself regardless of whether you question the motivations of the person who showed them to you.MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Farage has no real need to worry about some of these figures. Be seen to be in touch and you can get away with a lot more, and while Clegg is a slick performer, part of Farage's appeal comes from not seeming as polished and professional in that regard as Clegg, Cameron and, increasingly, Miliband are. The honesty one is a surprise.
Also, if the LDs were disappearing as fast as people claim, they'd have been gone by now. They are much damaged, but from well over 6 million votes in 2010, even at half that they are a force, even if much diminished. I am also certain people wrote them off as dead and buried in the days of the Liberals, and yet they revived to almost 1/4 of the vote. I'd be wary of assuming they are history, even though they will take a big hit.0 -
Goodish poll for Clegg – unfortunately the only poll people will remember is the YouGov post face-off result: - Farage 57 – Clegg 36.
The BBC televised debate next week will be seen by a larger audience I’d imagine, Clegg can’t afford another bunch of front-page headlines getting thrashed by that affable guy from the pub.
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I'll give this for Clegg - I have never found him to be as obviously slimy as Blair. Now, I'm not saying that is necessarily reflective of their personal worth or their actual personalities, but I always found Blair to be very shifty and smarmy seeming, and yet the public overwhelmingly preferred him to any alternatives, so apparently no-one else saw it that way at the time or felt his policies were just that much better that it did not matter.malcolmg said:
Exactly , you just know he is lyingMorris_Dancer said:Mr. G, you mean Clegg, right?
Sounds like Blair. Sometimes a certain rough edge is more reassuring than someone who's so smooth they're slippery.
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Mr. kle4, I'd agree with that.0
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Perhaps he is that anonymous minister who also is unwilling to be named or appear in public?malcolmg said:
Where is Flash Harry , as he cannot prove or even have the courage to print his scurrilous innuendos, I presume he has ran away.
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These are pre debate opinions aren't they?kle4 said:
Well he didn't pull polling figures from nowhere, so motivation hardly matters, does it? Statistics are not definitive of anything, but their appeal is that you can interpret them yourself regardless of whether you question the motivations of the person who showed them to you.MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Farage has no real need to worry about some of these figures. Be seen to be in touch and you can get away with a lot more, and while Clegg is a slick performer, part of Farage's appeal comes from not seeming as polished and professional in that regard as Clegg, Cameron and, increasingly, Miliband are. The honesty one is a surprise.
Also, if the LDs were disappearing as fast as people claim, they'd have been gone by now. They are much damaged, but from well over 6 million votes in 2010, even at half that they are a force, even if much diminished. I am also certain people wrote them off as dead and buried in the days of the Liberals, and yet they revived to almost 1/4 of the vote. I'd be wary of assuming they are history, even though they will take a big hit.
"Although the fieldwork took place last month this only appeared on YouGov’s website yesterday. "0 -
He most certainly can afford it. He's personally very unpopular and espousing full on support for the EU, unequivocally - as opposed to the Tories and sometimes Labour, where they support it, but try to look as though they are unhappy about it - is also an unpopular stance. Being seen to have won the debate would be a great positive for him, but realistically he cannot have expected that taking on a more popular opponent who is putting forth more popular views, that he would have a good shot of being seen to be the victor.SimonStClare said:Goodish poll for Clegg – unfortunately the only poll people will remember is the YouGov post face-off result: - Farage 57 – Clegg 36.
The BBC televised debate next week will be seen by a larger audience I’d imagine, Clegg can’t afford another bunch of front-page headlines getting thrashed by that affable guy from the pub.
His criteria for having 'won' the debate is far different that that of Farage, and he is speaking for and to a minority when debating Farage. Farage imploding would be great for him, and there is no guarantee his stance will work, but it has a chance, which is all he needs out of this.
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Agree, not as bad as Blair but of a similar ilk and just comes across as shifty to me and I would not trust anything he says.kle4 said:
I'll give this for Clegg - I have never found him to be as obviously slimy as Blair. Now, I'm not saying that is necessarily reflective of their personal worth or their actual personalities, but I always found Blair to be very shifty and smarmy seeming, and yet the public overwhelmingly preferred him to any alternatives, so apparently no-one else saw it that way at the time or felt his policies were just that much better that it did not matter.malcolmg said:
Exactly , you just know he is lyingMorris_Dancer said:Mr. G, you mean Clegg, right?
Sounds like Blair. Sometimes a certain rough edge is more reassuring than someone who's so smooth they're slippery.0 -
Apologies, scanned past the crucial text on that.isam said:
These are pre debate opinions aren't they?kle4 said:
Well he didn't pull polling figures from nowhere, so motivation hardly matters, does it? Statistics are not definitive of anything, but their appeal is that you can interpret them yourself regardless of whether you question the motivations of the person who showed them to you.MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Farage has no real need to worry about some of these figures. Be seen to be in touch and you can get away with a lot more, and while Clegg is a slick performer, part of Farage's appeal comes from not seeming as polished and professional in that regard as Clegg, Cameron and, increasingly, Miliband are. The honesty one is a surprise.
Also, if the LDs were disappearing as fast as people claim, they'd have been gone by now. They are much damaged, but from well over 6 million votes in 2010, even at half that they are a force, even if much diminished. I am also certain people wrote them off as dead and buried in the days of the Liberals, and yet they revived to almost 1/4 of the vote. I'd be wary of assuming they are history, even though they will take a big hit.
"Although the fieldwork took place last month this only appeared on YouGov’s website yesterday. "
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No , Flash is just a coward.foxinsoxuk said:Perhaps he is that anonymous minister who also is unwilling to be named or appear in public?
malcolmg said:Where is Flash Harry , as he cannot prove or even have the courage to print his scurrilous innuendos, I presume he has ran away.
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Very interesting scoop in the Guardian today. It sounds as if key figures in the government have drawn up contingency plans in the event of Scotland going independent and becoming a basket case. I can see the reasoning. We English don't want some sort of pariah state on our doorstep with all the difficulties that would ensue: the rise of political extremism, refugees fleeing over the border to England etc. Then again, we can't fix all the problems of the Third World and isn't that what foreign-aid budgets are for?0
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Clegg wins if he gets his Euro vote into the early teens, Farage has to get in the high twenties to win. As the Euro elections are increasingly being seen as a proxy in/out referendum then raising the LD standard on a topic that has widespread support and is distinctive from the Tories is a good thing. Labour is a vacuum, and the Tories divided, so a positive campaign on beng in the EU can be a vote winner.kle4 said:
He most certainly can afford it. He's personally very unpopular and espousing full on support for the EU, unequivocally - as opposed to the Tories and sometimes Labour, where they support it, but try to look as though they are unhappy about it - is also an unpopular stance. Being seen to have won the debate would be a great positive for him, but realistically he cannot have expected that taking on a more popular opponent who is putting forth more popular views, that he would have a good shot of being seen to be the victor.SimonStClare said:Goodish poll for Clegg – unfortunately the only poll people will remember is the YouGov post face-off result: - Farage 57 – Clegg 36.
The BBC televised debate next week will be seen by a larger audience I’d imagine, Clegg can’t afford another bunch of front-page headlines getting thrashed by that affable guy from the pub.
His criteria for having 'won' the debate is far different that that of Farage, and he is speaking for and to a minority when debating Farage. Farage imploding would be great for him, and there is no guarantee his stance will work, but it has a chance, which is all he needs out of this.0 -
I agree that the only real reason rUK would agree to a currency union would be to play the Germans to Salmonds Greece.
That the Yes campaign want this just shows that they know that they will need a nappy to control their financial incontinence.
Why else would an "independent" country want their big neighbour running their economy?Stark_Dawning said:Very interesting scoop in the Guardian today. It sounds as if key figures in the government have drawn up contingency plans in the event of Scotland going independent and becoming a basket case. I can see the reasoning. We English don't want some sort of pariah state on our doorstep with all the difficulties that would ensue: the rise of political extremism, refugees fleeing over the border to England etc. Then again, we can't fix all the problems of the Third World and isn't that what foreign-aid budgets are for?
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What (will have) happened to the Welsh and Northern Irish?Stark_Dawning said:Very interesting scoop in the Guardian today. It sounds as if key figures in the government have drawn up contingency plans in the event of Scotland going independent and becoming a basket case. I can see the reasoning. We English don't want some sort of pariah state on our doorstep with all the difficulties that would ensue: the rise of political extremism, refugees fleeing over the border to England etc. Then again, we can't fix all the problems of the Third World and isn't that what foreign-aid budgets are for?
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They don't count as even pond life with these people, pity reality hasn't dawned yet.Carnyx said:
What (will have) happened to the Welsh and Northern Irish?Stark_Dawning said:Very interesting scoop in the Guardian today. It sounds as if key figures in the government have drawn up contingency plans in the event of Scotland going independent and becoming a basket case. I can see the reasoning. We English don't want some sort of pariah state on our doorstep with all the difficulties that would ensue: the rise of political extremism, refugees fleeing over the border to England etc. Then again, we can't fix all the problems of the Third World and isn't that what foreign-aid budgets are for?
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They don't share a border with Scotland, so England would serve as a bulwark. Nevertheless, there would be fears across the British isles and beyond about Europe getting its own North Korea.Carnyx said:
What (will have) happened to the Welsh and Northern Irish?Stark_Dawning said:Very interesting scoop in the Guardian today. It sounds as if key figures in the government have drawn up contingency plans in the event of Scotland going independent and becoming a basket case. I can see the reasoning. We English don't want some sort of pariah state on our doorstep with all the difficulties that would ensue: the rise of political extremism, refugees fleeing over the border to England etc. Then again, we can't fix all the problems of the Third World and isn't that what foreign-aid budgets are for?
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Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
Edited extra bit: Mr. G, 'these people'? The English, aka (according to Salmond) your 'best pals' in the world?0 -
How is Dernbach in this side?0
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No one cares much about either. And no one notices their debates.0
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No, I was referring explicitly to England as it solely would be in the South Korean position of sharing a land border with a failed state. Of course, other nations in the region would, and should, be equally concerned.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
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Populus/Daily Politics did something similar for all party leaders.
Mr Farage's top quality was "stands up for Britain".
Mr Clegg's was "weak".
(Mr Cameron "out of touch", Mr Miliband "out of his depth").
http://order-order.com/2014/03/28/what-the-public-thinks-about-each-party-leader/0 -
Fair enough, Mr. Dawning. Sometimes I've bothered to write the clunky but more accurate forms, and sometimes not. Of course, if Scotland does separate we can simply keep on using British for the remainder.0
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The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
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A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/0 -
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/0 -
Thanks. Strictly England does not have any legal status and will not unless there is a constitutional change. I was just wondering if you had some additional changes in mind!Stark_Dawning said:
No, I was referring explicitly to England as it solely would be in the South Korean position of sharing a land border with a failed state. Of course, other nations in the region would, and should, be equally concerned.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
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Fine. But even before the debate Mr Farage was seen more positively than Mr Clegg.antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
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Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.0 -
O/T
For those who haven't seen it, today's Matt is brilliant. One of his best - cat haters don't look.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/0 -
No, but it contributes to the general political media narratives that does filter through to people to some degree. It is not a major event, but they can (can, not will) have significance nevertheless.antifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
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Looking at the PDF, the first question "Do you have a positive/negative opinion of Mr .."kle4 said:
Farage has no real need to worry about some of these figures. Be seen to be in touch and you can get away with a lot more, and while Clegg is a slick performer, part of Farage's appeal comes from not seeming as polished and professional in that regard as Clegg, Cameron and, increasingly, Miliband are. The honesty one is a surprise.
Mr Farage's numbers are: +19/-46, Mr Clegg's +12/-56.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jlge2cwwx4/YG-Archive-140224-Clegg-Farage.pdf
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I have just wasted 40 minutes of my life watching the Willie Rennie speech.0
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BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".0 -
O h I completely agree that we overestimate how much the public are affected by things that we bore on and on about on here. But isn't that what this site is for?! I mean, about a third of the public who are eligible to vote don't botherantifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.0 -
It filtered through so much that both the Lib Dems and UKIP fell in the most recent Populus poll.kle4 said:
No, but it contributes to the general political media narratives that does filter through to people to some degree. It is not a major event, but they can (can, not will) have significance nevertheless.antifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
The political commentary on this debate has been an embarrassment from start to finish. We heard that it was bad news for David Cameron. Then we heard that both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage would be winners. The "narrative" in the Westminster bubble is now being driven by polling on a debate that few saw and fewer remembered, rather than on what either leader actually said. Meanwhile in reality the public are very sensibly paying almost no attention at all.0 -
MD, not at all , I am talking about fakes like Stark Dawning and unprincipled unionists like FoxinUK. I have told you many times I have nothing against the English whatsoever, it is the Westminster elite and their hangers on I dislike. Their are of course individuals on both sides of the border who I would not like to know or have a beer with ever.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
Edited extra bit: Mr. G, 'these people'? The English, aka (according to Salmond) your 'best pals' in the world?0 -
That is no different to any political event. I'm not going to dismiss the event on that basis as it would mean dismissing everything.antifrank said:
The "narrative" in the Westminster bubble is now being driven by polling on a debate that few saw and fewer remembered, rather than on what either leader actually said.kle4 said:
No, but it contributes to the general political media narratives that does filter through to people to some degree. It is not a major event, but they can (can, not will) have significance nevertheless.antifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my events like debates between minor league politicians.
It filtered through so much that both the Lib Dems and UKIP fell in the most recent Populus poll.... Meanwhile in reality the public are very sensibly paying almost no attention at all.
I did say 'can' have significance, not 'will'. And the cry of 'the public pay almost no attention' is, I regret to say, complete and total nonsense. Not because it is not true, but because for practically every event involving politicians and politics, it will be true to a smaller or larger degree, so it tends to get trotted out for personal preference reasons only.
Most people do not read articles on politics in the blogosphere, they don't watch PMQs, Daily Politics or Question time (and those are the more watched events), so making the 'public pay almost no attention' argument can be applied to almost every political event anyone can care to name, so when it is trotted out, it devolves into a semantic argument about why, although most people do not pay attention to X or Y, X is significant whereas Y is not.
If someone claims these debates are game changing events, they are provably incorrect, but equally it makes little sense to just dismiss them because they will almost certainly have little lasting impact, because you cannot view such things in isolation, it is part of the overall political culture, even if by itself it can have little direct influence.0 -
LOL, you must be crazyold_labour said:I have just wasted 40 minutes of my life watching the Willie Rennie speech.
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Very embarrassing , you just wonder about the mentality of them hiring big halls when they know they are going to be lucky to get out of double figures.old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".0 -
Two different things are at play here. Things that wonks care about and things that the public care about. It's fine for people on here to post their views about what excites them. It's usually actively misleading to presuppose that many other people agree.isam said:
O h I completely agree that we overestimate how much the public are affected by things that we bore on and on about on here. But isn't that what this site is for?! I mean, about a third of the public who are eligible to vote don't botherantifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
The story of this Parliament in the public's eyes could be summed up in a few words:
Deficit, austerity, tuition fees, Euro crisis, bankers' bonuses, 45%, Plebgate, immigration, economic recovery, cost of living, Scotland.
You could argue about even some of these.0 -
:-)old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".
Go on! How many?
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Amazed that bingogate didn't make the list...antifrank said:
Two different things are at play here. Things that wonks care about and things that the public care about. It's fine for people on here to post their views about what excites them. It's usually actively misleading to presuppose that many other people agree.isam said:
O h I completely agree that we overestimate how much the public are affected by things that we bore on and on about on here. But isn't that what this site is for?! I mean, about a third of the public who are eligible to vote don't botherantifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
The story of this Parliament in the public's eyes could be summed up in a few words:
Deficit, austerity, tuition fees, Euro crisis, bankers' bonuses, 45%, Plebgate, immigration, economic recovery, cost of living, Scotland.
You could argue about even some of these.
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The Lib Dems are totally deluded. A function room above a pub would have been too big.malcolmg said:
Very embarrassing , you just wonder about the mentality of them hiring big halls when they know they are going to be lucky to get out of double figures.old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".0 -
The right and left sides of the hall had entirely empty rows. They seemed to be concentrating people in the middle rows for the TV cameras.Stuart_Dickson said:
:-)old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".
Go on! How many?0 -
I am not aiming this at you w both barrels as I know you are not a particularly partisan poster, but it is noticeable how the people who claim the public aren't bothered about things are always those who on the side of the losers of said unimportant things.antifrank said:
It filtered through so much that both the Lib Dems and UKIP fell in the most recent Populus poll.kle4 said:
No, but it contributes to the general political media narratives that does filter through to people to some degree. It is not a major event, but they can (can, not will) have significance nevertheless.antifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
The political commentary on this debate has been an embarrassment from start to finish. We heard that it was bad news for David Cameron. Then we heard that both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage would be winners. The "narrative" in the Westminster bubble is now being driven by polling on a debate that few saw and fewer remembered, rather than on what either leader actually said. Meanwhile in reality the public are very sensibly paying almost no attention at all.
Immigration polling (how it affects my family) is often pointed to by people who are pro EU immigration... yet the obvious fact is that an anti EU immigration party is winning support in real elections wherever their is mass EU immigration!0 -
Malcolm, you have me wrong. I am not a Unionist. My money is on yes at 4:1.
It is the bluff, bluster and bull from Salmond that I do not approve of.
If Scotland wants independence it is no skin off my nose. But Independence means Independence, not tapping up the British taxpayer.
Indeed I would quite like Scottish Independence as it would mean that spendthrift Labour chancellors will be much less likely, and that to become electable in rUK Labour will move to become a more centrist Social Democrat party.malcolmg said:
MD, not at all , I am talking about fakes like Stark Dawning and unprincipled unionists like FoxinUK. I have told you many times I have nothing against the English whatsoever, it is the Westminster elite and their hangers on I dislike. Their are of course individuals on both sides of the border who I would not like to know or have a beer with ever.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
Edited extra bit: Mr. G, 'these people'? The English, aka (according to Salmond) your 'best pals' in the world?0 -
I should think the reasoning is that a)hopeless optimism - you don't want to be caught out if you do get more than you expect, although standing only would play well, and more importantly b)As established, few people will see such things or remember it, so the detail that it occured in a large place is more important (if it sticks in the memory at all, which it probably would not) than how many were actually present, as footage of such things that gain any traction, if they do at all, will likely be a tight or wide shot of the person speaking for 30-60 seconds, without much indication of how many were there anyway, so the important thing is that it looks like they are speaking to what could be loads of people.malcolmg said:
Very embarrassing , you just wonder about the mentality of them hiring big halls when they know they are going to be lucky to get out of double figures.old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".0 -
You are trying to reason with a poster who likens Scotland with North Korea. Some folk just aren't worth the effort.Carnyx said:
Thanks. Strictly England does not have any legal status and will not unless there is a constitutional change. I was just wondering if you had some additional changes in mind!Stark_Dawning said:
No, I was referring explicitly to England as it solely would be in the South Korean position of sharing a land border with a failed state. Of course, other nations in the region would, and should, be equally concerned.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
0 -
Like this pic?old_labour said:The right and left sides of the hall had entirely empty rows. They seemed to be concentrating people in the middle rows for the TV cameras.
Stuart_Dickson said:
:-)old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".
Go on! How many?
Twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/449575576475406336/photo/1
0 -
It looked like they made them bunch together in the middle, so it looks like people were made to move.Carnyx said:
Like this pic?old_labour said:The right and left sides of the hall had entirely empty rows. They seemed to be concentrating people in the middle rows for the TV cameras.
Stuart_Dickson said:
:-)old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".
Go on! How many?
twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/449575576475406336/photo/10 -
Can you point out where I likened Scotland to North Korea? I was merely exploring the reasoning of the mysterious 'minister' quoted in today's Guardian. It's the SNP who have been lauding this person as a prophet.Stuart_Dickson said:You are trying to reason with a poster who likens Scotland with North Korea. Some folk just aren't worth the effort.
0 -
I likened these debates to the Johnstone Paint Trophy final well before the first was held.isam said:
I am not aiming this at you w both barrels as I know you are not a particularly partisan poster, but it is noticeable how the people who claim the public aren't bothered about things are always those who on the side of the losers of said unimportant things.antifrank said:
It filtered through so much that both the Lib Dems and UKIP fell in the most recent Populus poll.kle4 said:
No, but it contributes to the general political media narratives that does filter through to people to some degree. It is not a major event, but they can (can, not will) have significance nevertheless.antifrank said:
Not many of anything other than the missing plane:isam said:
What % do you think recalled any political event at all last week?antifrank said:
A mighty 0.7% of the public recalled the debate in the news of the week poll for Populus.anotherDave said:The "more likeable", "more competent", "more honest" etc numbers above are odd. YouGov did a "positive/negative" impression question before and after the debate.
Mr Farage before debate +40/-56
Mr Farage after debate +52/-46
Mr Clegg before debate +31/-67
Mr Clegg after debate +35/-64
http://order-order.com/2014/03/27/how-farage-won-last-nights-debate/
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Something-for-the-Weekend-17/
But that's my point. We massively overestimate the significance of almost every news story. Opinions aren't driven by one-off piddly events like debates between minor league politicians.
The political commentary on this debate has been an embarrassment from start to finish. We heard that it was bad news for David Cameron. Then we heard that both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage would be winners. The "narrative" in the Westminster bubble is now being driven by polling on a debate that few saw and fewer remembered, rather than on what either leader actually said. Meanwhile in reality the public are very sensibly paying almost no attention at all.
Immigration polling (how it affects my family) is often pointed to by people who are pro EU immigration... yet the obvious fact is that an anti EU immigration party is winning support in real elections wherever their is mass EU immigration!0 -
PB moderators - my apologies that the picture came through. I wasn't expecting that to happen, just the URL.Carnyx said:
Like this pic?old_labour said:The right and left sides of the hall had entirely empty rows. They seemed to be concentrating people in the middle rows for the TV cameras.
Stuart_Dickson said:
:-)old_labour said:BBC's Brian Taylor on Rennie speech:
"It was not a vast audience".
Go on! How many?
Twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/449575576475406336/photo/1
0 -
Fox, I will gladly retract for your goodself then, however you do at times mix up Salmond's obvious playing the political game to what the reality is. He is not looking to soothe southern opinion, the Labour voters are his target audience at this point. He is there to win and knows his audience.foxinsoxuk said:Malcolm, you have me wrong. I am not a Unionist. My money is on yes at 4:1.
It is the bluff, bluster and bull from Salmond that I do not approve of.
If Scotland wants independence it is no skin off my nose. But Independence means Independence, not tapping up the British taxpayer.
Indeed I would quite like Scottish Independence as it would mean that spendthrift Labour chancellors will be much less likely, and that to become electable in rUK Labour will move to become a more centrist Social Democrat party.malcolmg said:
MD, not at all , I am talking about fakes like Stark Dawning and unprincipled unionists like FoxinUK. I have told you many times I have nothing against the English whatsoever, it is the Westminster elite and their hangers on I dislike. Their are of course individuals on both sides of the border who I would not like to know or have a beer with ever.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's a bit clunky to write non-Scottish Britons or similar, and if you're referring to your own bit then it's natural to write English (writing 'we Britons who are not Scottish' is rather cumbersome).
Edited extra bit: Mr. G, 'these people'? The English, aka (according to Salmond) your 'best pals' in the world?0 -
I think it unlikely that independent Scotland would become like North Korea. Even Salmond isn't plonker enough to make his haircut compulsory for all Scottish males.
We still have not had an answer as to why Scotland would want the rUK setting interest rates and financial policy though. An Independent Scotland would make it much more likely to be a right wing Tory government too. The only reason that I can fathom is that Salmond wants rUK to be the Germans to Scotlands Greece. I can see the advantage to him of being bailed out, but not the advantage to us.
BTW excellent win for Leicester City, our hands nearly on that trophy now. Burnley will have to watch it with both strikers injured.Stark_Dawning said:
Can you point out where I likened Scotland to North Korea? I was merely exploring the reasoning of the mysterious 'minister' quoted in today's Guardian. It's the SNP who have been lauding this person as a prophet.Stuart_Dickson said:You are trying to reason with a poster who likens Scotland with North Korea. Some folk just aren't worth the effort.
0 -
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
0 -
Betting Post
Backed Hulkenberg to be top 6 at 2.5:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysia-pre-race.html0 -
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)0 -
The general election is about winning seats not about aggregate national votes.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
0 -
Hopefully the last one where that is true.MikeSmithson said:
The general election is about winning seats not about aggregate national votes.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)0 -
Whats that got to do with it? You often bet on who will come second in by elections, where its all about coming firstMikeSmithson said:
The general election is about winning seats not about aggregate national votes.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
So why not bet me here?0 -
Weekend in Paris with the family. It's such a beautiful place. Just back from Stade Francais v Racing Metro in the rugby. Fine game, big crowd, great stadium, fantastic atmosphere. And some serious wealth - lots of brown leather jackets, Gucci sunglasses and the smell of Cohibas hanging in the air. Just like a Spurs game really!0
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First reason is that unlike Mike K I don't know you and after bitter and costly experience in the past I am very careful about who I bet with on the site.isam said:
Whats that got to do with it? You often bet on who will come second in by elections, where its all about coming firstMikeSmithson said:
The general election is about winning seats not about aggregate national votes.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
So why not bet me here?
Secondly I think there's a chance that UKIP could win most votes and I have that covered in other ways.
I do have a bet at 8/1 that UKIP will win more than 1 seat which at the moment looks touch and go.
0 -
Former Putin adviser said Putin wants to annex Finland along with the Baltic states and return Russia to the borders of Tsar Nicholas II
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/vladimir-putin-wants-regain-finland-says-close-adviser-14424660 -
That first reason seems pretty lame.. I am open about who I am, I don't post under an alias and we have had email contact going back years. I have worked in the betting industry 17 years, it wouldn't do for me to allow you to be able to say I knocked you on a bet.MikeSmithson said:
First reason is that unlike Mike K I don't know you and after bitter and costly experience in the past I am very careful about who I bet with on the site.isam said:
Whats that got to do with it? You often bet on who will come second in by elections, where its all about coming firstMikeSmithson said:
The general election is about winning seats not about aggregate national votes.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
So why not bet me here?
Secondly I think there's a chance that UKIP could win most votes and I have that covered in other ways.
I do have a bet at 8/1 that UKIP will win more than 1 seat which at the moment looks touch and go.
Also I have allowed your son to pay me for a bet (only 20 quid mind) at the next PB meet despite the fact Ive never met him, never been to a PB do and am not 100% to go to the next one!
The second reason would have sufficed!
You couldve laid me 7/5 and backed the 6/4 yourself!
0 -
So has it been confirmed that the currency blabber mouth is. Cable ?0
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Southwark Cllr (College ward) Helen Hayes just won Labour selection for Dulwich and West Norwood where Tessa Jowell is retiring0
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I'll put £10 on the LDs with you if you like Isam.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)0 -
England out of the circket T20. So close, too. Can't blame the batting; better bowling, especially from one or two players would have helped considerably0
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WPA 2016 GOP nomination
•Rand Paul 13%
•Mike Huckabee 13%
•Jeb Bush 11%
•Chris Christie 9%
•Ted Cruz 9%
•Paul Ryan 6%
•Marco Rubio 6%
•Scott Walker 5%
•Bobby Jindal 3%
•Rick Santorum 3%
0 -
Ok cool.corporeal said:
I'll put £10 on the LDs with you if you like Isam.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
£10 and if the LDs get more % that UKIP Ill owe you £7.140 -
A bit of a silly article. Anyone claiming to be "one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ex-advisers" is straining credulity. The nature of Putin will mean that an "ex-adviser" is almost certainly going to be a 'current enemy'.HYUFD said:Former Putin adviser said Putin wants to annex Finland along with the Baltic states and return Russia to the borders of Tsar Nicholas II
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/vladimir-putin-wants-regain-finland-says-close-adviser-1442466
That said, Putin's roots are in St Petersburg rather than Moscow. This will have placed him close to the disputed territority of Karelia (Karjala) which is split by the border between Finland and Russia.
Karelia was originally Finnish but its territory has been fought over since the 13th century when the combatants were Sweden (ruling Finland) and the Novgorod Republic (later absorbed into Russia). The border kept being moved East and West right up until WWII, with Russia most often gaining land.
Finland did occupy much of Soviet Karelian territory as Hitler's tanks moved the Russians east but this didn't last long and led to nearly half a million Finnish Karelians being relocated to non Karelian Finland as the borders were redrawn again to Finland's disadvantage in 1944.
The Finns are more possessive of Karelia than Russia and its status is a core element of Finnish nationalism. The Karelian language, both on the Finnish and Russian sides, is a dialect of Finnish, although their religion is Orthodox rather than (Swedish) Lutheran.
The Finns 'winning' the Winter War between November 1939 and March 1940 following the Soviet Union's invasion of Finland to recover lost Karelian territory. The victory of the Finns lay more though in the casualties and defeats inflicted on Soviet forces and the avoidance of occupation. The Treaty of Moscow which ended the war saw Finland concede more Karelian territory to Russia.
I have been up to the Finnish Karelian border with Russia. The Finns are immensely proud of the economic strength of their part of Karelia and forever point out the destitution and neglect of Russian Karelia.
If any country is claiming territory it would be Finland wanting Eastern Karelia repatriated. Putin is most unlikely to have any territorial ambitions within Finland.
Finland's non NATO status is additionally irrelevant. Having, throughout its history been torn apart in conflicting imperialist fights between Sweden and Russia (and to a lesser extent and indirectly by Germany), it has always chosen to remain unaligned from military geo-political alliances. This has given it the freedom as one Finn told me: "to be on the wrong side in every major global conflict but always only to the benefit of Finland".
We can all do without US Neo-cons scaremongering on Putin's territorial ambitions.
Even Pork knows that.0 -
Lab lead down to one with omnium...
33/32/15/10
Labour share lowest since 2010 !
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/29/labour-support-falls-lowest-2010-observer-opinium-opinion-poll?CMP=twt_gu
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Labour's support has slumped to its lowest level since soon after the 2010 election, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll. Ed Miliband's party now has a lead of just one percentage point over the Conservatives.
The findings – showing a clear bounce for the Tories after George Osborne's budget – will put more pressure on Miliband, whose party was 10 points ahead of the Tories a year ago.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/29/labour-support-falls-lowest-2010-observer-opinium-opinion-poll0 -
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4846/cameron_must_sack_his_union_busting_ministerCarnyx said:
Hmm. Source? It was said pretty specifically to be a Tory, wasn't it?TGOHF said:So has it been confirmed that the currency blabber mouth is. Cable ?
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The poll puts Labour on 33% (down two points on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 32% (up two), Ukip on 15% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 10%. Since the budget on 19 March, several polls have shown Labour's lead cut, but Labour strategists hoped the Tory bounce would be shortlived.0
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Thank you very much. Ah! It's Professor Tom Gallagher. That Prof Gallagher, who got really upset about schoolchildren visiting Bannockburn field.TGOHF said:
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4846/cameron_must_sack_his_union_busting_ministerCarnyx said:
Hmm. Source? It was said pretty specifically to be a Tory, wasn't it?TGOHF said:So has it been confirmed that the currency blabber mouth is. Cable ?
I'm not sure he is right that it is probably Mr Cable. The impression given was that it was a Tory.
But Prof G does have a point - that minister mannie [edit: or lady] has rather put his foot through the Better Together hull, and if nobody is sacked soon it will look gey unchancy ...
I wonder if it is Mr Hammond (Defence not Trains)? He's got Faslane to think about, after all, and the last time the MoD put Faslane on the indy debate radar was not exactly tactful either (proposing imperial annexation to EWNI).
0 -
I wonder if Labour's 2 point drop is also due to their support for the welfare cap?TheScreamingEagles said:The poll puts Labour on 33% (down two points on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 32% (up two), Ukip on 15% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 10%. Since the budget on 19 March, several polls have shown Labour's lead cut, but Labour strategists hoped the Tory bounce would be shortlived.
0 -
Personally I think it is down to Labour's snobbishness towards the bingo and beer tax cuts.SimonStClare said:
I wonder if Labour's 2 point drop is also due to their support for the welfare cap?TheScreamingEagles said:The poll puts Labour on 33% (down two points on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 32% (up two), Ukip on 15% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 10%. Since the budget on 19 March, several polls have shown Labour's lead cut, but Labour strategists hoped the Tory bounce would be shortlived.
0 -
"Indeed so.
However the point was when did Labour last achieve a majority government before Blair. The answer is Oct 74."
JackW - I've just seen your posts on this on the last thread. This is not the point. You and I are answering different questions. Yes, Labour last achieved a majority government in Oct 74.
My point was when Labour last *returned* to power *with* a majority. That is to say, when did they last take control of the government - from the Conservatives, following a general election - with a majority government.
They did not do so in Feb 74, but did form a minority government. Therefore, the answer to that question (when did Labour last take power from the Conservatives, with a majority government, before 1997) is 1964, which is how I answered it in the first place.0 -
Most interesting. But may I inquire, please, how did your contact construe WW2 as being to Finland's benefit? The Finns failed to regain their chunk of Karelia, as you say, and lost more land, also near Lake Onega and their only outlet to the Arctic IIRC. (And they had to paint out their traditional, and not at all National Socialist German, swastika national markings, but that would probably have had to happen anyway come 1945.)AveryLP said:
[edited down]
Finland's non NATO status is additionally irrelevant. Having, throughout its history been torn apart in conflicting imperialist fights between Sweden and Russia (and to a lesser extent and indirectly by Germany), it has always chosen to remain unaligned from military geo-political alliances. This has given it the freedom as one Finn told me: "to be on the wrong side in every major global conflict but always only to the benefit of Finland".
We can all do without US Neo-cons scaremongering on Putin's territorial ambitions.
Even Pork knows that.
0 -
It really did show how out of touch Labour's leaders are with ordinary people.TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I think it is down to Labour's snobbishness towards the bingo and beer tax cuts.SimonStClare said:
I wonder if Labour's 2 point drop is also due to their support for the welfare cap?TheScreamingEagles said:The poll puts Labour on 33% (down two points on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 32% (up two), Ukip on 15% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 10%. Since the budget on 19 March, several polls have shown Labour's lead cut, but Labour strategists hoped the Tory bounce would be shortlived.
Has anyone seen either of the two Eds in a bingo hall this week?
0 -
Both Eds love bingo, is the only way either of them will get to number 10 and 11AveryLP said:
It really did show how out of touch Labour's leaders are with ordinary people.TheScreamingEagles said:
Personally I think it is down to Labour's snobbishness towards the bingo and beer tax cuts.SimonStClare said:
I wonder if Labour's 2 point drop is also due to their support for the welfare cap?TheScreamingEagles said:The poll puts Labour on 33% (down two points on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 32% (up two), Ukip on 15% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 10%. Since the budget on 19 March, several polls have shown Labour's lead cut, but Labour strategists hoped the Tory bounce would be shortlived.
Has anyone seen either of the two Eds in a bingo hall this week?0 -
Having the unique fate of not being Bolshevised, despite occupation by the Red Army for a start.Carnyx said:Most interesting. But may I inquire, please, how did your contact construe WW2 as being to Finland's benefit?
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The psyche of the Finns is that the maintenance of their independence and the avoidance of long term occupation is counted as victory in any war. Territorial concessions are secondary and the stories you will hear are of valiant fighting and victory against the odds by small poorly armed patriots against overwhelming and heavily armoured oppressors.Carnyx said:
Most interesting. But may I inquire, please, how did your contact construe WW2 as being to Finland's benefit? The Finns failed to regain their chunk of Karelia, as you say, and lost more land, also near Lake Onega and their only outlet to the Arctic IIRC. (And they had to paint out their traditional, and not at all National Socialist German, swastika national markings, but that would probably have had to happen anyway come 1945.)AveryLP said:
[edited down]
Finland's non NATO status is additionally irrelevant. Having, throughout its history been torn apart in conflicting imperialist fights between Sweden and Russia (and to a lesser extent and indirectly by Germany), it has always chosen to remain unaligned from military geo-political alliances. This has given it the freedom as one Finn told me: "to be on the wrong side in every major global conflict but always only to the benefit of Finland".
We can all do without US Neo-cons scaremongering on Putin's territorial ambitions.
Even Pork knows that.
Being walked across a bridge in Helsinki in a mid-winter snowstorm to see Red Army bullet holes in the pedestals of the parapet is the price you have to pay for befriending the Finn.
Coming from Scotland, I am sure you will find such stories familiar, Carnyx.
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Avery Thanks for the background, unlikely anything in it as you say, but thought of interest0
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Is the bet that in the General election 2015 that the UK popular vote for LD exceeds the same for UKIP?
If so, put me down for a tenner on the LDs.isam said:
Ok cool.corporeal said:
I'll put £10 on the LDs with you if you like Isam.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
£10 and if the LDs get more % that UKIP Ill owe you £7.14-1 -
New Thread0
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Tory polling: There once was a notion that equal rights for whoever and action against discrimination was a Labour preserve. It strikes me that todays liberalisation of the marriage laws are quite remarkable in that context. Pictures of men kissing make me uncomfortable, but I've long ago recognised that it's my problem rather than theirs and I think the Tory party have too.
I wonder to what extent a fug might set in within Labour if their polling suggest they may be forced into bed with the LDs? That would be very tough for (say) a new chancellor to come along and still have Danny Alexander in place. It's long been 'nailed' on PB that 'Ed is crap' could become a dominant message, and although it's clear he's actually quite capable, at his best verging on likeable, and certainly is and had progressed Labour's chances it may well be that the label comes to define him.
Cameron might just hang on yet! If he did though I wonder whether GO might eventually emerge as someone people like (hard sell I know). He is certainly doing a difficult job well (I would entirely concede that there have been endless PR disasters along the way).
We need a politician that people warm to. Maggie, Benn, even Bob Crowe - I can't think of anyone of the current generation who might become 'valued' in that way.0 -
Many thanks. That doesn't surprise me on reflection, given the nature of the Finns and their guts. (Reminds me I haven't watched my DVD set in the Continuation War =- Tali-ihantala if I recall the spelling correctly).AveryLP said:
The psyche of the Finns is that the maintenance of their independence and the avoidance of long term occupation is counted as victory in any war. Territorial concessions are secondary and the stories you will hear are of valiant fighting and victory against the odds by small poorly armed patriots against overwhelming and heavily armoured oppressors.Carnyx said:
Most interesting. But may I inquire, please, how did your contact construe WW2 as being to Finland's benefit? The Finns failed to regain their chunk of Karelia, as you say, and lost more land, also near Lake Onega and their only outlet to the Arctic IIRC. (And they had to paint out their traditional, and not at all National Socialist German, swastika national markings, but that would probably have had to happen anyway come 1945.)AveryLP said:
[edited down]
Finland's non NATO status is additionally irrelevant. Having, throughout its history been torn apart in conflicting imperialist fights between Sweden and Russia (and to a lesser extent and indirectly by Germany), it has always chosen to remain unaligned from military geo-political alliances. This has given it the freedom as one Finn told me: "to be on the wrong side in every major global conflict but always only to the benefit of Finland".
We can all do without US Neo-cons scaremongering on Putin's territorial ambitions.
Even Pork knows that.
Being walked across a bridge in Helsinki in a mid-winter snowstorm to see Red Army bullet holes in the pedestals of the parapet is the price you have to pay for befriending the Finn.
Coming from Scotland, I am sure you will find such stories familiar, Carnyx.
I do wonder what would have happened if they had simply kept out of it in 1941?
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Yep you are onfoxinsoxuk said:Is the bet that in the General election 2015 that the UK popular vote for LD exceeds the same for UKIP?
If so, put me down for a tenner on the LDs.isam said:
Ok cool.corporeal said:
I'll put £10 on the LDs with you if you like Isam.isam said:
Ill bet you LD vs UKIP GE 2015 vote %MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like the messenger then...MikeK said:OGH likes to get his, not so sly, digs at UKIP and Farage on a daily basis, nowadays.
Must be worried about the fast disappearing L/Dems.
Very happy to bet on LD versus UKIP GE2015 seats.
I'll take 7/5 UKIP (6/4 w Ladbrokes)
£10 and if the LDs get more % that UKIP Ill owe you £7.140
