politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance
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Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)0 -
The left cannot be racist. The left you see is inherently good and anything Tory is inherently evil so by definition they will never own up to being racist. Ever.Elliot said:
But remember, verbally abusing someone based on their skin colour isn't racist.Sean_F said:
Between them, the gammons, coconuts, uncle toms, and zios must make up a high proportion of voters in some boroughs.daodao said:
Another bubble for the cartoon could be "I hope a Jewish supporter of the criminal Zionist entity doesn't answer the door" - but such an encounter could be avoided if the canvasser noticed the mezuzah on the door.Scott_P said:
Even when it is blindingly obvious.0 -
Pochettino would relish the chance to forge a team playing a modern, pressing game a la Klopp and Pep rather than just pumping the ball up to the lump of a lower league, journey-man, centre forward like he has had to do at low wage Spurs...0
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Is this the sort of 'quality' advice we get from the civil service? 'It is all May's fault for being indecisive - but we can't come up with a plan that works anyway'. Pathetic. I actually have a tiny kernel of sympathy for May if this is the best advice she gets.Scott_P said:
Of course it is solvable - every country in the World has managed it. Choose your customs solution (maxfac) and get the hell on with delivering it. It is not as if it matters much if it doesn't work perfectly - it is not like the civil service have come up with an immigration system that can actually count how many people are in the country, and they don't seem fussed about that.
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https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/996118735768473600Elliot said:
Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)0 -
Good morning - enjoy your day on your planet.Rexel56 said:Pochettino would relish the chance to forge a team playing a modern, pressing game a la Klopp and Pep rather than just pumping the ball up to the lump of a lower league, journey-man, centre forward like he has had to do at low wage Spurs...
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He's not calling for an invasion of Israel!Elliot said:
Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
just talking about suspending arms sales (which I imagine is essentially symbolic/pointless), and respect for international law.0 -
Plus Poch has a history of leaving small minor teams for slightly bigger minor teams.Rexel56 said:Pochettino would relish the chance to forge a team playing a modern, pressing game a la Klopp and Pep rather than just pumping the ball up to the lump of a lower league, journey-man, centre forward like he has had to do at low wage Spurs...
From Spurs to Chelsea will be just like leaving Southampton for Spurs.0 -
And imagine the hurt he’s going to feel when Arteta leapfrogs him in the PL managerial pecking order...TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus Poch has a history of leaving small minor teams for slightly bigger minor teams.Rexel56 said:Pochettino would relish the chance to forge a team playing a modern, pressing game a la Klopp and Pep rather than just pumping the ball up to the lump of a lower league, journey-man, centre forward like he has had to do at low wage Spurs...
From Spurs to Chelsea will be just like leaving Southampton for Spurs.0 -
The most recent survey, from Lucid Talk, had voters opting 61/39 to remain in the UK. The non-aligned proportion of the population is much smaller than 15-20%.FF43 said:
The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/996283736928018432?s=21
Two points:
1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.0 -
Jeremy, whatever his faults, is not easily deterred from saying what he thinks, least of all by Guido.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)0 -
We buy more from them than they buy from us. Under MFTS all of the RAF's fixed wing training fleet is owned and operated by Elbit Systems based in Haifa.rkrkrk said:
He's not calling for an invasion of Israel!Elliot said:
Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
just talking about suspending arms sales (which I imagine is essentially symbolic/pointless), and respect for international law.0 -
Except when it comes to saying exactly what he thinks of the EU.NickPalmer said:
Jeremy, whatever his faults, is not easily deterred from saying what he thinks, least of all by Guido.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
Seems pretty clear to many of us that he wants out and he should be honest about that.0 -
Ah okay - so probably actually worse than pointless if they retaliated in kind.Dura_Ace said:
We buy more from them than they buy from us. Under MFTS all of the RAF's fixed wing training fleet is owned and operated by Elbit Systems based in Haifa.rkrkrk said:
He's not calling for an invasion of Israel!Elliot said:
Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
just talking about suspending arms sales (which I imagine is essentially symbolic/pointless), and respect for international law.0 -
Nobody was calling for an invasion of Russia either, but he still focused on not blaming anyone and calling for nothing to provoke Russia. But then Russia isn't run by Jews.rkrkrk said:
He's not calling for an invasion of Israel!Elliot said:
Strange. I thought he was all about dialogue.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
just talking about suspending arms sales (which I imagine is essentially symbolic/pointless), and respect for international law.0 -
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:
The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/996283736928018432?s=21
Two points:
1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
I suspected that this thread would draw the honourable Lord Matlock out of retirement.AlistairM said:I live in a reasonably sized village in the Buckinghamshire constituency so hopefully have some knowledge. Although considering the large size and odd shape of it, different parts have very different views.
Of the people that I know well (early 40s with kids under 10) in the area they are almost without exception pro-Remain. I was the panto villain who voted Leave and had (and still do sometimes) some interesting conversations on the topic.
A lot of the people who live here have moved out of London, the majority of which are soft left (a small number of Corbynistas and Tories). The older generation who have lived here for a while I am sure are Tories in the majority and pro-Leave but that is normal across the country.
Bercow has a lot of support locally as he has done a lot of work for good causes, schools etc. and has been very publicly visible. He will therefore I'm sure have some level of personal vote although that was the never the case from me as I've not liked him.
My gut feel is that this is still a safe Tory seat as the older generations will all vote Tory having experienced 70s style socialism before. For my generation I think a lot will just not vote as they will not know who to vote for. The Tories are taking us out of the EU which will prevent a lot voting for them. Corbyn and his policies also do not appeal to a large number of people here and in fact he is a running joke. Who is going to vote for Vince Cable? The Greens have always done quite well here but obviously nowhere near well enough to get elected.0 -
The DUP have won both post Brexit NI elections now and the Alliance Party tends to mainly be small u Unionists.FF43 said:
The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/996283736928018432?s=21
Two points:
1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
However if a border poll was held whatever the result it would likely be so divisive it could well lead to a return to terrorist violence in NI0 -
Generational divides can be exaggerated, more young people want immigration controls tightened than to privatise the NHS for instanceFoxy said:
Yes it is interesting. I have always regarded the self actualisation of young people from the Sixties onwards as an essentially consumerist and right wing phenomenon, with more than a tint of selfishness.NickPalmer said:Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.
https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50
It is also interesting to see how economically socialist the former kippers are. Hannanite and Foxite free trade is not what they are after. It is not just the Labour party trying to ride two horses at the same time. Tories holding onto those former kippers is not a done deal, and Corbynism is not the anathema that some opine.0 -
It was a statement of fact not a vuewAlastairMeeks said:
That does not appear to be the view of many of your fellow Conservatives.HYUFD said:
The LDs already held Richmond Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike BuckinghamAlastairMeeks said:
The same was true for Richmond Park.DavidL said:Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.
It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.
I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.0 -
That made me chuckle.Dura_Ace said:rkrkrk said:
Ah okay - so probably actually worse than pointless if they retaliated in kind.
We have sold them Land Rover Defenders which should be a significant impediment even to a fighting force with the pedigree of the IDF so Solihull has done its bit for Palestine.0 -
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.
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The straight question has 39/61 (or 34/56) supporting unification.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
There was an interesting R4 programme on approximately that subject. Contra the standard perception (PB Tory anyway) of youth as wild eyed, Corbynite zealots, many NI youngsters seem much more sensible than their parents. They'll also get their just reward of having EU passports whatever happens.FF43 said:
The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/996283736928018432?s=21
Two points:
1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09yd7tp0 -
That ignores the effect that having a vote in the first place would have. “If not now then when?” beats “Never, never, never”.Sean_F said:
The straight question has 39/61 (or 34/56) supporting unification.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
It is not 50%, it was 34% in an October 2017 poll with 55% for the Union.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2017/10/26/news/opinion-poll-finds-one-third-in-favour-irish-unity-1171518/
It only gets to 50% with a loaded question about the hardest of Brexits not even a Customs Partnership and no FTA with the EU which is not what May is aiming for0 -
So when is he off to Madrid ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus Poch has a history of leaving small minor teams for slightly bigger minor teams.Rexel56 said:Pochettino would relish the chance to forge a team playing a modern, pressing game a la Klopp and Pep rather than just pumping the ball up to the lump of a lower league, journey-man, centre forward like he has had to do at low wage Spurs...
From Spurs to Chelsea will be just like leaving Southampton for Spurs.0 -
Not sure if this has been noted on here, but yesterday SCOTUS gave the greenlight to sports betting in the US:
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-476_dbfi.pdf
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A vote in the first place would be extremely divisive and almost certainly see violence a high risk on both sides. That is what powersharing was meant to avoidwilliamglenn said:
That ignores the effect that having a vote in the first place would have. “If not now then when?” beats “Never, never, never”.Sean_F said:
The straight question has 39/61 (or 34/56) supporting unification.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
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Even 39% support for reunification is a massive increase on pre-Brexit levels. I agree the other survey asked a leading question, so we can't say a reunification referendum would be carried. We can say two things however. Firstly that the Northern Irish population is persuadable, so a vote for reunification is distinctly possible. Secondly the Irish border is a big issue for people in Northern Ireland and most are going for the Irish government position, not the DUP/UK government position.Sean_F said:
The straight question has 39/61 (or 34/56) supporting unification.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
Once we are out of the protectionist cartel, the cross border supermarket run is going to be worthwhile for ROI consumers.
Assuming the Belgian border guards dont stop and search the car I suppose.0 -
Wages up by 0.4% YoY.0
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https://twitter.com/ONS/status/996307087260037120?s=20
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.0 -
Even on the current levels of turnover UK work is far more valuable to the UK space industry than EU work. For 2016 the numbers were £8.7 billion of turnover to £2.5 billion.FF43 said:
It's spin, but probably significant. The UK won't get top level access to Galileo without special agreement that isn't currently available to non EU countries. It's a question of whether you stress the default lack of access or the possibility of agreement..CarlottaVance said:Barnier reverse ferret:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/996057347226243073?s=20
The UK government's threat to companies to stop them participating in Galileo is an empty one. They just move their operations abroad. I also doubt the UK would do its own system in the foreseeable future. It has a funding gap of up to £40 billion on existing defence projects according to the National Audit Office. Adding a realistic £10 billion or so to it is a stretch.
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If there were a UK Council of Ministers along the lines of the EU’s, Nicola Sturgeon would be able to veto Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Words fail me.....
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/996282808191668224?s=200 -
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings0 -
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may20180 -
CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.0 -
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings0 -
The latter figure is almost all down to financial services bonuses dropping by 3.4% YoY.JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.0 -
duplicate0
-
Cheers. I see construction pay is up 6% yoy. The slow down in Polish plumbers must be showing up.MaxPB said:
The latter figure is almost all down to financial services bonuses dropping by 3.4% MoM.JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.0 -
I have always hugely admired Robert Fisk's journalism when it comes to the Middle East. Both his Independent articles and his books are a must for anyone who wants to get a real insight into the region. When I started working in various countries down there it genuinely helped to have read his work before and have some idea of what to expect.Roger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)0 -
Probably, though it does contradict the idea that EU immigration hasn't hit wages.JonathanD said:
Cheers. I see construction pay is up 6% yoy. The slow down in Polish plumbers must be showing up.MaxPB said:
The latter figure is almost all down to financial services bonuses dropping by 3.4% MoM.JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.0 -
At GE17, the Unionists won 11 seats (Inc. Lady Hermon), Sinn Fein won only 7.FF43 said:
Even 39% support for reunification is a massive increase on pre-Brexit levels. I agree the other survey asked a leading question, so we can't say a reunification referendum would be carried. We can say two things however. Firstly that the Northern Irish population is persuadable, so a vote for reunification is distinctly possible. Secondly the Irish border is a big issue for people in Northern Ireland and most are going for the Irish government position, not the DUP/UK government position.Sean_F said:
The straight question has 39/61 (or 34/56) supporting unification.FF43 said:
That 50% support for reunification is a massive boost from derisory levels pre-referendum. It's why Sinn Féin LOVES Brexit. It does more for its cause than decades of violence.FF43 said:
Reunification would be a problem for the DUP. It would, if it happened, be carried on a tiny majority in a highly sectarian environment. So, yes, there would be huge problems.Elliot said:
If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.FF43 said:The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.
The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
This is the polling. Northern Ireland would choose 60%-40% to have customs checks on the Irish Sea to avoid a hard land border, thanks to the non-aligned group. 50%-50% for reunification to stay in the EU to achieve the same thing.
If they have any sense, the DUP should be pushing Theresa May strongly for the UK to stay in the Customs Union.0 -
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live0 -
My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.0
-
David Cameron almost lost Scotland; now his successor may see Northern Ireland depart. What is it with Conservatives and lopping bits off the country?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
0 -
Robert Fisk is a sucker for the conspiracy theories - something of a hobby in those parts - but he does immerse himself in the environment and reports what he finds. Which is a valuable rarity.Richard_Tyndall said:
I have always hugely admired Robert Fisk's journalism when it comes to the Middle East. Both his Independent articles and his books are a must for anyone who wants to get a real insight into the region. When I started working in various countries down there it genuinely helped to have read his work before and have some idea of what to expect.Roger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)0 -
F1: just updating my records. Quite remarkable Grosjean's on zero points. Could easily be on thirty or forty odd. The only other chap on zero is Sirotkin, who can at least point to his car being a bit rubbish.0
-
Apart from the extremely destabilising effect of such a vote, it certainly wouldn't resolve the question categorically. Even less than the 23 June 2016 vote "resolved the question categorically". Which is why we are in a big mess.RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
0 -
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live0 -
Mr. 43, true. Democratic votes don't resolve things if the political class decides that its mission to dilute or thwart the result, rather than implement it.
Still, what harm could possibly come from treating democracy with contempt and teaching the electorate that the political class consider obeying the electorate's decisions to be optional?0 -
RoyalBlue said:
My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
A majority of a couple of per-cent won’t resolve the issue. In any case it’s in the Nats interest to postpone such a poll while the situation in the Republic continues to recover and memories of the bad times of ten or so years ago fade.0 -
The Irish border is the EU's problem.
Why we don't unilaterally abolish all tariffs and duties beats me. All UK consumers would benefit. To offer to impose the EU's Common External Tariff on all our imports in order to protect EU farming and industry at huge administrative expense is a mind-bogglingly stupid form of self-harm.0 -
Cameron GE15 = 1 Scottish seatDecrepitJohnL said:
David Cameron almost lost Scotland; now his successor may see Northern Ireland depart. What is it with Conservatives and lopping bits off the country?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
May GE 17 = 13 Scottish Seats, plus 10 DUP confidence and supply0 -
£1.247 at the ASDA yesterday, the local (expensive) station I pass by on my way to work was £1.329 !OldKingCole said:
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live
Sure I remember filling up for around £1.179 a month or two back..0 -
I think post scottish referendum the nationalist boil was well and truly lanced. It's now settled. Scotland will remain part of the UK for the foreseeable future.DecrepitJohnL said:
David Cameron almost lost Scotland; now his successor may see Northern Ireland depart. What is it with Conservatives and lopping bits off the country?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
0 -
The DUP have proved rather more reliable partners for May than either the ERG loons or the Soubryite-Morgan faction.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cameron GE15 = 1 Scottish seatDecrepitJohnL said:
David Cameron almost lost Scotland; now his successor may see Northern Ireland depart. What is it with Conservatives and lopping bits off the country?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
May GE 17 = 13 Scottish Seats, plus 10 DUP confidence and supply0 -
ADA’s the cheapest locally; was planning to go there later today. ALARMED!!!!Pulpstar said:
£1.247 at the ASDA yesterday, the local (expensive) station I pass by on my way to work was £1.329 !OldKingCole said:
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live
Sure I remember filling up for around £1.179 a month or two back..0 -
The Shell garage at Markham Vale was £1.449 for diesel! I went to the Morrisons in Staveley and paid £1.249 instead.Pulpstar said:
£1.247 at the ASDA yesterday, the local (expensive) station I pass by on my way to work was £1.329 !OldKingCole said:
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live
Sure I remember filling up for around £1.179 a month or two back..0 -
+1geoffw said:The Irish border is the EU's problem.
Why we don't unilaterally abolish all tariffs and duties beats me. All UK consumers would benefit. To offer to impose the EU's Common External Tariff on all our imports in order to protect EU farming and industry at huge administrative expense is a mind-bogglingly stupid form of self-harm.0 -
Not IMO, and I've discussed it with him directly. His 7/10 comment is exactly what he thinks - he's in favour of membership, on balance, but it's not a core issue for him. People who feel strongly either way (like me) find this almost incomprehensible, but it is typical of a large slice of the electorate: ask them what they think and they tell you, but they're actually not that bothered.rottenborough said:
Except when it comes to saying exactly what he thinks of the EU.NickPalmer said:
Jeremy, whatever his faults, is not easily deterred from saying what he thinks, least of all by Guido.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
Seems pretty clear to many of us that he wants out and he should be honest about that.
What I don't know is how far he'd be willing to shift in order to win power so he could do things that he *does* care about. McDonnell would, I think - he's far more flexible than his reputation, to the point of being "just another politician". Jeremy is not as a rule that flexible, but as we've seen on monarchy, NATO and Trident, he is sometimes willing to go along with a different view if the party really wants him to.0 -
King Canutes' courtiers would no doubt have voted for the tide to go back, which is pretty much the Leave vote. If you don't deal with reality when you vote, it hits you later on. Mrs May's problem isn't a lack of will. It's her commitment to deliver the undeliverable.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, true. Democratic votes don't resolve things if the political class decides that its mission to dilute or thwart the result, rather than implement it.
Still, what harm could possibly come from treating democracy with contempt and teaching the electorate that the political class consider obeying the electorate's decisions to be optional?0 -
Other prices are falling faster I think so it might stay about the same.OldKingCole said:
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live0 -
Inflation rises through one offs like petrol show in the first set of figure but drop out of the next because they're not cyclical, unless of course they keep going up and up.OldKingCole said:
ADA’s the cheapest locally; was planning to go there later today. ALARMED!!!!Pulpstar said:
£1.247 at the ASDA yesterday, the local (expensive) station I pass by on my way to work was £1.329 !OldKingCole said:
Won’t there be a rise in inflation soon? Fuelled (ahem) by petrol prices.CarlottaVance said:
How the Guardian is reporting it:JonathanD said:CarlottaVance said:
Out of date.JonathanD said:
No?MaxPB said:Wages up by 0.4% YoY.
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2018#average-weekly-earnings
Published today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018
Thanks, although that is worse as it shows a 0% total pay rise over the last year.
Basic pay rising faster than inflation
Today’s jobs report also shows that Britain’s cost of living squeeze is easing.
Basic pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 2.8% a month ago.
That means that wages are rising faster than inflation (which fell to 2.5% in March).
So real basic pay (adjusted for inflation) are now growing at around 0.4%, after shrinking over recent months.
However, total pay (including bonuses) only grew by 2.6% during the quarter (again, down from 2.8%).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live
Sure I remember filling up for around £1.179 a month or two back..0 -
A rise in price of one commodity (e.g. petrol) is a rise in a relative price. Inflation refers to a decline in the value of money, i.e. a rise in the general price level.0
-
-
Thanks. I shall defer to your greater, personal knowledge on his views.NickPalmer said:
Not IMO, and I've discussed it with him directly. His 7/10 comment is exactly what he thinks - he's in favour of membership, on balance, but it's not a core issue for him. People who feel strongly either way (like me) find this almost incomprehensible, but it is typical of a large slice of the electorate: ask them what they think and they tell you, but they're actually not that bothered.rottenborough said:
Except when it comes to saying exactly what he thinks of the EU.NickPalmer said:
Jeremy, whatever his faults, is not easily deterred from saying what he thinks, least of all by Guido.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
Seems pretty clear to many of us that he wants out and he should be honest about that.
What I don't know is how far he'd be willing to shift in order to win power so he could do things that he *does* care about. McDonnell would, I think - he's far more flexible than his reputation, to the point of being "just another politician". Jeremy is not as a rule that flexible, but as we've seen on monarchy, NATO and Trident, he is sometimes willing to go along with a different view if the party really wants him to.0 -
These figures must be down to the totally incompetent government we have at the moment. Bring back Labour and lets get those unemployment figures higher.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/ONS/status/996307087260037120?s=20
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.0 -
Well food gets to shops in lorries, which use diesel so ceteris paribus one might expect a second order minor rise in food prices.geoffw said:A rise in price of one commodity (e.g. petrol) is a rise in a relative price. Inflation refers to a decline in the value of money, i.e. a rise in the general price level.
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You know him much better than I - but I think it's a mistake to lump monarchy, NATO and trident together. He is never going to want nuclear weapons/Trident, but has accepted his party doesn't agree with him for the moment. I expect he will keep pushing to change policy.NickPalmer said:
Not IMO, and I've discussed it with him directly. His 7/10 comment is exactly what he thinks - he's in favour of membership, on balance, but it's not a core issue for him. People who feel strongly either way (like me) find this almost incomprehensible, but it is typical of a large slice of the electorate: ask them what they think and they tell you, but they're actually not that bothered.rottenborough said:
Except when it comes to saying exactly what he thinks of the EU.NickPalmer said:
Jeremy, whatever his faults, is not easily deterred from saying what he thinks, least of all by Guido.rkrkrk said:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeliRoger said:The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.
(NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
Seems pretty clear to many of us that he wants out and he should be honest about that.
What I don't know is how far he'd be willing to shift in order to win power so he could do things that he *does* care about. McDonnell would, I think - he's far more flexible than his reputation, to the point of being "just another politician". Jeremy is not as a rule that flexible, but as we've seen on monarchy, NATO and Trident, he is sometimes willing to go along with a different view if the party really wants him to.
On the monarchy - I don't think he is going to push to change policy, I think it's a much lower-order priority.0 -
O/T sitting outside our barn in the Yorkshire Dales enjoying the sunshine... a massive fight going on above for ownership of a house martin nest... one pair will get into the nest then the other pair tag-team to drag them out by the throat... quite vicious... unfortunately the pairs are indistinguishable so difficult to see which is winning0
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What is economic policy for? Is it to protect vested interests or to benefit consumers?rkrkrk said:
Because political forces impact economic policy choices. For starters you'd have manufacturing and farming up in arms.geoffw said:
Why we don't unilaterally abolish all tariffs and duties beats me.
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Sure abolition of all tariffs.Pulpstar said:
But unilateral abolition by the UK without other countries reciprocating would give other countries an unfair advantage.0 -
It's obviously not for for the first and it's not solely for the second in my opinion.geoffw said:
But you said you couldn't understand why something was happening - and I've given you an explanation.0 -
At the 2017 general election the Lib Dems appointed and announced Sarah Lowes as their official candidate for Buckingham but certain powerful individuals in the party subsequently managed to block her candidacy.
However, an Independent candidate, Scott Raven, achieved 10.7% of the vote.
John Bercow Speaker 34,299 65.1% +0.6%
Michael Sheppard Green 8,574 16.3% +2.5%
Scott Raven Independent 5,638 10.7% +10.7%
Brian Mapletoft UKIP 4,168 7.9% -13.8%
Spoilt papers 1,967
Earlier this month, following the death of the Conservative councillor, a by-election was held in the Quainton ward in the constituency. Scott Raven stood for the Lib Dems and took the ward from the Conservatives with the following result:
Scott Raven Lib Dem 564 46% +46%
Steven Walker Con 492 40% - 15%
Maxine Myatt Lab 113 9% + 9%
Deborah Lovatt Green 47 4% +4%
The previous local election was 2015 when only an Independent and UKIP stood against Conservative.
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Of course there are ripple effects affecting relative prices, but you implicitly make the point yourself with the ceteris paribus qualification. Other things are held equal. Inflation is a macroeconomic phenomenon and needs a general equilibrium, not a partial equilibrium, understanding.Pulpstar said:
Well food gets to shops in lorries, which use diesel so ceteris paribus one might expect a second order minor rise in food prices.geoffw said:A rise in price of one commodity (e.g. petrol) is a rise in a relative price. Inflation refers to a decline in the value of money, i.e. a rise in the general price level.
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So it's that time of year again, managed to get my Gold status renewed (just about). Before I commit to BA for another year of rubbish Club class, does anyone else have any recommendations, I don't really want to end up flying via somewhere else all the time, which is what I've been doing for the last year.
I'll never make it to GGL, I just don't fly enough and I don't have anywhere near enough money to burn for first on personal flights to get enough TP to ever make it.0 -
I said "it beats me", not that I didn't understand it. Your 'explanation' is inadequate.rkrkrk said:
It's obviously not for for the first and it's not solely for the second in my opinion.geoffw said:
But you said you couldn't understand why something was happening - and I've given you an explanation.
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Import tariffs don't directly affect you as an exporting company. Non tariff barriers and customs checks into the European Union might do if we leave the customs and regulatory area as is official government policy. Third countries potentially will keep their barriers higher so their companies can export into the UK at your expense but you are disadvantaged from exporting to their countries.Pulpstar said:
The last also applies to being in a customs union with the EU, but at least 50% of trade would be barrier free. Also the EU is likely to support the UK in negotiations with third countries leading to a better arrangement for the UK. The EU gains the UK as part of its negotiating heft and it keeps the diagonal trade flows .0 -
Have you forgotten the 'Troubles', the murders, the bombing campaign in mainland Britain, the hard earned peace process?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
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House martins here seem to have deserted us. There was a house a bit further down the street which had had nests for around 20 years. New owners decorated over the autumn and removed the nests and I don’t think any pairs have tried this year. May need to wait for the paint to get a bit older.Rexel56 said:O/T sitting outside our barn in the Yorkshire Dales enjoying the sunshine... a massive fight going on above for ownership of a house martin nest... one pair will get into the nest then the other pair tag-team to drag them out by the throat... quite vicious... unfortunately the pairs are indistinguishable so difficult to see which is winning
On a positive note we saw swifts over the garden during the weekend.0 -
Sorry I thought beats me means 'I don't understand why'.geoffw said:
I said "it beats me", not that I didn't understand it. Your 'explanation' is inadequate.rkrkrk said:
It's obviously not for for the first and it's not solely for the second in my opinion.geoffw said:
But you said you couldn't understand why something was happening - and I've given you an explanation.
It's only a partial explanation, yes.0 -
Well yes that's why we're setting up {Our Co} Ireland... and third countries tarriffs are their choice, but you've repeated my point in the first six words of your paragraph.FF43 said:
Import tariffs don't directly affect you. Non tariff barriers and customs checks into the European Union might do if we leave the customs and regulatory area as is official government policy. Third countries potentially will keep their barriers higher so their companies can export into the UK at your expense but you are disadvantaged from exporting to their countries.0 -
The LSE blog did a nice little piece on unilateral abolition of tariffs here:rkrkrk said:
Sure abolition of all tariffs.Pulpstar said:
But unilateral abolition by the UK without other countries reciprocating would give other countries an unfair advantage.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/
N.B. a leading proponent for the idea predicts that it would mostly eliminate UK manufacturing.0 -
His point is though, that it would be survivable politically - Thatcher won plenty of General Elections whilst taking a hard line on the IRA. Netanyahu crushed Israeli labour and had an enormous shy vote with his tough stance on Palestine.logical_song said:
Have you forgotten the 'Troubles', the murders, the bombing campaign in mainland Britain, the hard earned peace process?RoyalBlue said:My takeaway from the May-Mogg discussion is that the election has sapped May of the confidence to take calculated risks. There is a plenty of evidence that a border poll, even with hard Brexit, would return a Unionist majority. There would be a risk of violence, but it would resolve the question categorically. The British public, for better or worse, does not consider NI to be as British as the other home nations, so even a vote for reunification would be survivable politically.
Of course unrest is not welcome, but it is definitely survivable 'politically'.
Though I don't think it would resolve the Irish reunification question forever, particularly when the west of NI may well have voted for reunification.0 -
I think they may have relocated here... six nests last year, though many chicks died during a cold wet early summer... the nestsmore than filling up this year, with overbooking by the look of it! they mark the wall where they nest with droppings in order to find the spot next summer... if the marks have been painted over they would struggle... its illegal to interfere with an active nest so important to knock them down over winter as your neighbour did... a right mess if they nest over the doorways so we hang mesh guards on the eaves at the vital spots...OldKingCole said:
House martins here seem to have deserted us. There was a house a bit further down the street which had had nests for around 20 years. New owners decorated over the autumn and removed the nests and I don’t think any pairs have tried this year. May need to wait for the paint to get a bit older.Rexel56 said:O/T sitting outside our barn in the Yorkshire Dales enjoying the sunshine... a massive fight going on above for ownership of a house martin nest... one pair will get into the nest then the other pair tag-team to drag them out by the throat... quite vicious... unfortunately the pairs are indistinguishable so difficult to see which is winning
On a positive note we saw swifts over the garden during the weekend.0 -
It is illogical to argue against a customs union on the grounds that it limits our trade policy choices and simultaneously propose a unilateral abolition of tariffs. The justified criticisms of the customs union apply to unilateral abolition of tariffs, to a much greater extent, while the latter doesn't give you the benefits of the former.Pulpstar said:
Well yes that's why we're setting up {Our Co} Ireland... and third countries tarriffs are their choice, but you've repeated my point in the first six words of your paragraph.FF43 said:
Import tariffs don't directly affect you. Non tariff barriers and customs checks into the European Union might do if we leave the customs and regulatory area as is official government policy. Third countries potentially will keep their barriers higher so their companies can export into the UK at your expense but you are disadvantaged from exporting to their countries.0 -
There is nothing to stop our own standards and regulations matching those of the EU. That eliminates non-tariff barriers as an impediment to trade with the EU 27. Indeed we start off from that very position.rkrkrk said:
The LSE blog did a nice little piece on unilateral abolition of tariffs here:rkrkrk said:
Sure abolition of all tariffs.Pulpstar said:
But unilateral abolition by the UK without other countries reciprocating would give other countries an unfair advantage.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/
N.B. a leading proponent for the idea predicts that it would mostly eliminate UK manufacturing.
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Membership of the Single Market? Because unless we formally commit to alignment and the EU formally accepts that commitment, "matching to standards" doesn't mean a thing. The NTBs stay.geoffw said:
There is nothing to stop our own standards and regulations matching those of the EU. That eliminates non-tariff barriers as an impediment to trade with the EU 27. Indeed we start off from that very position.rkrkrk said:
The LSE blog did a nice little piece on unilateral abolition of tariffs here:rkrkrk said:
Sure abolition of all tariffs.Pulpstar said:
But unilateral abolition by the UK without other countries reciprocating would give other countries an unfair advantage.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/
N.B. a leading proponent for the idea predicts that it would mostly eliminate UK manufacturing.0 -
Not necessarily. Read the history of the Victorian era. Britain started scrapping mercantilist tariffs in the 1820s, and by the 1850s had scrapped all tariffs. Unilaterally. This was followed by 40 years of the fastest growth this country has ever seen. And the growth was not from the Empire. By 1867, over 72% of British exports were outside the Empire.rkrkrk said:
Sure abolition of all tariffs.Pulpstar said:
But unilateral abolition by the UK without other countries reciprocating would give other countries an unfair advantage.0
