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rkrkrk said:

Slackbladder said:

rkrkrk said:

Cyclefree said:

I don’t see why, in principle, you could not have a vote on the choice between whatever deal is negotiated and remaining in the EU (on our current terms? /new terms?), assuming the EU would agree to this (and @NickPalmer and others have suggested that the EU would be likely to agree if the UK changed its mind).

When we voted in June 2016 we did not know what Brexit meant in reality. Soon we will. It is perfectly democratic to ask people whether they continue to want to leave the EU and move to this new arrangement.

Now I realise that there are lots of assumptions and ifs in this and that getting from where we are to this point is not easy etc. But there is nothing inherently wrong in wanting a vote on the new arrangement.

Indeed, isn’t it the mirror image of the vote which many say they wanted on Maastricht and Lisbon etc? Moving to a version of Brexit without clear support only risks storing up the same sort of resentments as agreeing to the various treaties did.

Whether Blair / Clegg et al are the right people to do this is another matter as Jones argues. Still, I thought Humphries was too quick to interrupt Blair this morning. There is a dilemma at the heart of what May is trying to do and fudging or ignoring it won’t work, not for long anyway. Blair is right to point it out.

No chance of selling that to leavers.
It will be the great Brexit betrayal.
But I think you’ve argued it well and I find myself unexpectedly agreeing with you.

Maybe we should rejoin the EU if we had a 'cast iron' guarantee that there would be no further change in our status or rules/powers which the EU operated under.

You see that thats issue, it's never can be a fixed position. the EU has morphed time and time again from the 1970s onwards, changing it's status and it's powers. Whilst governments may have signed up to each change, the people haven't.

Now, the first time people have had a chance to say, 'hang on, we don't like this' we want out, you're planning on putting roadblock after roadblock in the way.

the referendum wasn't lost in 2016, it was lost time and time again over the last 30 years when politicans haven't listened to people.

Such a guarantee would be ridiculous - it’s perfectly fine for the EU to evolve and there would be certain reforms the UK would want. What might address your concern is a commitment to have a regular referendum every xx years - but to be honest that sounds a big hassle.

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Personally I would only consider it for serial killers which also reduces the error rate and focuses on the most calculating killers and then only lethal injection

SouthamObserver said:

It would be interesting to find out what Tory members consider to be traditional British values. Is obeying authority one of them?

Slackbladder said:

rkrkrk said:

Slackbladder said:

rkrkrk said:

Cyclefree said:

I don’t see why, in principle, you could not have a vote on the choice between whatever deal is negotiated and remaining in the EU (on our current terms? /new terms?), assuming the EU would agree to this (and @NickPalmer and others have suggested that the EU would be likely to agree if the UK changed its mind).

of Brexit without clear support only risks storing up the same sort of resentments as agreeing to the various treaties did.

Whether Blair / Clegg et al are the right people to do this is another matter as Jones argues. Still, I thought Humphries was too quick to interrupt Blair this morning. There is a dilemma at the heart of what May is trying to do and fudging or ignoring it won’t work, not for long anyway. Blair is right to point it out.

No chance of selling that to leavers.
It will be the great Brexit betrayal.
But I think you’ve argued it well and I find myself unexpectedly agreeing with you.

Maybe we should rejoin the EU if we had a 'cast iron' guarantee that there would be no further change in our status or rules/powers which the EU operated under.

You see that thats issue, it's never can be a fixed position. the EU has morphed time and time again from the 1970s onwards, changing it's status and it's powers. Whilst governments may have signed up to each change, the people haven't.

Now, the first time people have had a chance to say, 'hang on, we don't like this' we want out, you're planning on putting roadblock after roadblock in the way.

the referendum wasn't lost in 2016, it was lost time and time again over the last 30 years when politicans haven't listened to people.

Such a guarantee would be ridiculous - it’s perfectly fine for the EU to evolve and there would be certain reforms the UK would want. What might address your concern is a commitment to have a regular referendum every xx years - but to be honest that sounds a big hassle.

Bingo... so why is it ok for us to sign up to the EU when we don't fully know what that means, but wrong for us to leave when we don't fully know what that means.

Sauce for the goose clearly isn't sauce for the gander to Remainers

Cyclefree said:

I don’t see why, in principle, you could not have a vote on the choice between whatever deal is negotiated and remaining in the EU (on our current terms? /new terms?), assuming the EU would agree to this (and @NickPalmer and others have suggested that the EU would be likely to agree if the UK changed its mind).

When we voted in June 2016 we did not know what Brexit meant in reality. Soon we will. It is perfectly democratic to ask people whether they continue to want to leave the EU and move to this new arrangement.

Now I realise that there are lots of assumptions and ifs in this and that getting from where we are to this point is not easy etc. But there is nothing inherently wrong in wanting a vote on the new arrangement.

Indeed, isn’t it the mirror image of the vote which many say they wanted on Maastricht and Lisbon etc? Moving to a version of Brexit without clear support only risks storing up the same sort of resentments as agreeing to the various treaties did.

Whether Blair / Clegg et al are the right people to do this is another matter as Jones argues. Still, I thought Humphries was too quick to interrupt Blair this morning. There is a dilemma at the heart of what May is trying to do and fudging or ignoring it won’t work, not for long anyway. Blair is right to point it out.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

I don’t see why, in principle, you could not have a vote on the choice between whatever deal is negotiated and remaining in the EU (on our current terms? /new terms?), assuming the EU would agree to this (and @NickPalmer and others have suggested that the EU would be likely to agree if the UK changed its mind).

When we voted in June 2016 we did not know what Brexit meant in reality. Soon we will. It is perfectly democratic to ask people whether they continue to want to leave the EU and move to this new arrangement.

Now I realise that there are lots of assumptions and ifs in this and that getting from where we are to this point is not easy etc. But there is nothing inherently wrong in wanting a vote on the new arrangement.

Indeed, isn’t it the mirror image of the vote which many say they wanted on Maastricht and Lisbon etc? Moving to a version of Brexit without clear support only risks storing up the same sort of resentments as agreeing to the various treaties did.

Whether Blair / Clegg et al are the right people to do this is another matter as Jones argues. Still, I thought Humphries was too quick to interrupt Blair this morning. There is a dilemma at the heart of what May is trying to do and fudging or ignoring it won’t work, not for long anyway. Blair is right to point it out.

It was a stupid referendum and atrociously bad decision making when you reject an existing arrangement without seriously considering the alternatives. I would be happy never to have another referendum, But, given the absolute requirement to pursue a course of action however dumb, only another referendum can arguably countermand the first. The only circumstances in which that is viable in my opinion are where the electorate has collectively changed its mind and is looking for an out. In other words, a sizeable chunk of those that voted Leave now regret their decision. That hasn't happened yet in anything like sufficient numbers and it is unlikely to do so in the next year before the EU treaties lapse.

We are where we are. Brexit needs a hard headed effort at damage limitation. Remainers can do that intellectually because they never signed up to the agenda in the first place. Leavers can't. Damage limitation implies things will be worse than they were and they should be and it implies Leavers were wrong to suggest otherwise. Leavers cannot limit the damage nor can they deliver a successful Brexit. It's a mess.

rkrkrk said:

Cyclefree said:

I don’t see why, in principle, you could not have a vote on the choice between whatever deal is negotiated and remaining in the EU (on our current terms? /new terms?), assuming the EU would agree to this (and @NickPalmer and others have suggested that the EU would be likely to agree if the UK changed its mind).

When we voted in June 2016 we did not know what Brexit meant in reality. Soon we will. It is perfectly democratic to ask people whether they continue to want to leave the EU and move to this new arrangement.

Now I realise that there are lots of assumptions and ifs in this and that getting from where we are to this point is not easy etc. But there is nothing inherently wrong in wanting a vote on the new arrangement.

Indeed, isn’t it the mirror image of the vote which many say they wanted on Maastricht and Lisbon etc? Moving to a version of Brexit without clear support only risks storing up the same sort of resentments as agreeing to the various treaties did.

Whether Blair / Clegg et al are the right people to do this is another matter as Jones argues. Still, I thought Humphries was too quick to interrupt Blair this morning. There is a dilemma at the heart of what May is trying to do and fudging or ignoring it won’t work, not for long anyway. Blair is right to point it out.

No chance of selling that to leavers.
It will be the great Brexit betrayal.
But I think you’ve argued it well and I find myself unexpectedly agreeing with you.

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, not sure where (which is very helpful, I know) but I think I heard Laura Kuennsberg[sp] some time ago assert that if we changed our minds we'd lose all negotiated opt-outs, plus the rebate.

An interesting choice - May's half-baked deal or full-fat EU: Euro, Schengen, the lot.

Actually, I would be happier with the latter than our current fudged membership position.

In which case Leave would go from 52% to close to 70% and the issue would be settled for good

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, not sure where (which is very helpful, I know) but I think I heard Laura Kuennsberg[sp] some time ago assert that if we changed our minds we'd lose all negotiated opt-outs, plus the rebate.

The problem would be that it would confirm that on EU-related matters, the only vote that's treated as being binding is one in favour of More Europe.

Floater said:

oh well said indeed

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/where-is-the-persecutedchristians-hashtag/

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

It was a stupid referendum and atrociously bad decision making when you reject an existing arrangement without seriously considering the alternatives. I would be happy never to have another referendum, But, given the absolute requirement to pursue a course of action however dumb, only another referendum can arguably countermand the first. The only circumstances in which that is viable in my opinion are where the electorate has collectively changed its mind and is looking for an out. In other words, a sizeable chunk of those that voted Leave now regret their decision. That hasn't happened yet in anything like sufficient numbers and it is unlikely to do so in the next year before the EU treaties lapse.

We are where we are. Brexit needs a hard headed effort at damage limitation. Remainers can do that intellectually because they never signed up to the agenda in the first place. Leavers can't. Damage limitation implies things will be worse than they were and they should be and it implies Leavers were wrong to suggest otherwise. Leavers cannot limit the damage nor can they deliver a successful Brexit. It's a mess.

But, why not take the mirror view of that, and look at how to maximise the opportunities for Brexit?

Even the hardest of hard Remainers should be able to recognise there are some.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, not sure where (which is very helpful, I know) but I think I heard Laura Kuennsberg[sp] some time ago assert that if we changed our minds we'd lose all negotiated opt-outs, plus the rebate.

An interesting choice - May's half-baked deal or full-fat EU: Euro, Schengen, the lot.

Actually, I would be happier with the latter than our current fudged membership position.

In which case Leave would go from 52% to close to 70% and the issue would be settled for good

In the current climate, anything from 60%-75%. More probably 62-38%.

"Full membership" would have a voting spike, in my view, as the battlelines over values have been so starkly drawn.

So either way a Leave landslide

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, not sure where (which is very helpful, I know) but I think I heard Laura Kuennsberg[sp] some time ago assert that if we changed our minds we'd lose all negotiated opt-outs, plus the rebate.

An interesting choice - May's half-baked deal or full-fat EU: Euro, Schengen, the lot.

Actually, I would be happier with the latter than our current fudged membership position.

In which case Leave would go from 52% to close to 70% and the issue would be settled for good

In the current climate, anything from 60%-75%. More probably 62-38%.

"Full membership" would have a voting spike, in my view, as the battlelines over values have been so starkly drawn.

So either way a Leave landslide

Where are the extra leave votes going to come from?

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

Even now the average age of first time buyers is 37 so still the vast majority of the middle aged over 35 to 65s are owner occupiers and of course most first time buyers also get parental assistance with a deposit while the Tories are building more affordable housing anyway

People aged 65 are not "middle aged", they are old. On today's life expectancies, the middle year of your life is roughly 40.

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Personally I would only consider it for serial killers which also reduces the error rate and focuses on the most calculating killers and then only lethal injection

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

Even now the average age of first time buyers is 37 so still the vast majority of the middle aged over 35 to 65s are owner occupiers and of course most first time buyers also get parental assistance with a deposit while the Tories are building more affordable housing anyway

People aged 65 are not "middle aged", they are old. On today's life expectancies, the middle year of your life is roughly 40.

In terms of voters they are middle aged, considering you do not vote until you are 18 and you retire aged 65. Indeed the median voter is about 55

What has a 35 year old got in common with a 65 year old? Pretty much nothing nowadays.

Ishmael_Z said:

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

The State shouldn’t have the right to determine life or death. Too much power over the citizen

If it can lock you up in prison for the rest of your life, I don't see going from that to capital punishment as a major step up.

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

Even now the average age of first time buyers is 37 so still the vast majority of the middle aged over 35 to 65s are owner occupiers and of course most first time buyers also get parental assistance with a deposit while the Tories are building more affordable housing anyway

People aged 65 are not "middle aged", they are old. On today's life expectancies, the middle year of your life is roughly 40.

In terms of voters they are middle aged, considering you do not vote until you are 18 and you retire aged 65. Indeed the median voter is about 55

What has a 35 year old got in common with a 65 year old? Pretty much nothing nowadays.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

The State shouldn’t have the right to determine life or death. Too much power over the citizen

If it can lock you up in prison for the rest of your life, I don't see going from that to capital punishment as a major step up.

It is a massive step. A mistake can be rectified if the person is still alive. It cannot be rectified if a person is dead. Moreover if a person is still alive they still have the ability to fight to clear their name, something that cannot be easily done when one is dead.

I can see no justification whatsoever for the return of the death penalty.

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

HYUFD said:

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Personally I would only consider it for serial killers which also reduces the error rate and focuses on the most calculating killers and then only lethal injection

The drugs industry works hard to prevent its products being used in lethal injections

Most US states still execute by lethal injection though firing squad would be equally acceptable as in Utah where it is an option for death row prisoners

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Isn't the death penalty more expensive than life imprisonment?

Foxy said:

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Isn't the death penalty more expensive than life imprisonment?

It may also make juries less willing to convict.

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

Even now the average age of first time buyers is 37 so still the vast majority of the middle aged over 35 to 65s are owner occupiers and of course most first time buyers also get parental assistance with a deposit while the Tories are building more affordable housing anyway

People aged 65 are not "middle aged", they are old. On today's life expectancies, the middle year of your life is roughly 40.

In terms of voters they are middle aged, considering you do not vote until you are 18 and you retire aged 65. Indeed the median voter is about 55

What has a 35 year old got in common with a 65 year old? Pretty much nothing nowadays.

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Isn't the death penalty more expensive than life imprisonment?

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote for each party, or indeed in many cases the official party line. That's the case in several of the points highlighted, for example the death penalty for the Conservatives, Brexit for Labour.

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Isn't the death penalty more expensive than life imprisonment?

Not for the legal profession, all those appellate court hearings will be great for the legal profession.

Recidivist said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

I'd say where I live in the East Midlands is definitely in the north.

I'm from the south coast so I don't think my opinion matters very much on this subject. But I regard the north as starting just to the north of Leicester where there is a ridge of sandstone that makes the countryside look more rugged than I am used to. It just feels like you have passed into a different region there. I think there must be some underlying geological difference behind it.

John_M said:

Recidivist said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

I'd say where I live in the East Midlands is definitely in the north.

I'm from the south coast so I don't think my opinion matters very much on this subject. But I regard the north as starting just to the north of Leicester where there is a ridge of sandstone that makes the countryside look more rugged than I am used to. It just feels like you have passed into a different region there. I think there must be some underlying geological difference behind it.

Good afternoon all.

Some interesting reading here today. My rule of thumb is the North is anything further north than the river Trent.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

TheJezziah said:

stevef said:

The truest thing in politics as far as I am concerned is that any party's activists or members are always out of touch with the mainstream of public opinion. No party therefore should ever give too much power to its own members because if they do their party will be out of step with public opinion and will struggle to get elected. This is why the Tories do not promise at election times to bring back hanging -even though their own members want it.

The problem with Labour at the moment is that its given too much power to its own members (as against MPs). These members have elected a leader that most voters do not want as PM, and driven the party far more leftwards than the voters want to go. This is why Labour will struggle to come to power again anytime soon.

On the evidence of the last few elections I think the Labour members rather than the majority of Labour MPs have been shown to be a better judge of what the public want. Not that they or Corbyn who they support are the greatest judge but I would argue the evidence seems to indicate they are a bit closer to what the electorate want than the last couple of Labour offerings.

I agree. All the evidence we have over the last 15 years is that Corbynism is more electorally popular with the wider electorate than most of us thought, including New Labour. Indeed the fact that Jezz has maintained his polling numbers shows that June was no flash in the pan. A lot of the country wants change, and likes the Corbyn plan.

They like some things e.g. renationalisation of utilities and the railways and higher taxes for the rich and more money for the NHS and free tuition fees, they dislike other things like reversing Osborne's IHT cut, more powers for the unions to strike and Corbyn's weak approach to national security

HHemmelig said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

Have you read the tweet correctly? It implies around 80% don't want to be northerners.

The regions are so big that the results are pretty meaningless IMO. The East Midlands stretches from the coalfield of north Derbyshire right down to Northampton. That Chesterfield and Bolsover most likely identify as northern is hardly a surprise, whilst Northants is borderline home counties.

dixiedean said:

The sign at the end of my road says "Darlington and The South". Therefore Darlington is the border...it is on an official Government sign.

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

HYUFD said:

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

For me the most surprising point in these tables is that Labour doesn't draw more of its members from London - the same percentage (12%) as the Conservatives.

More generally, what the survey shows is that party members don't reflect the views of those who vote

Worth remembering that it is 12% of 600,000 for Labour and 12% of maybe 130,000 for the Tories.

I would be surprised if most Tory voters do not back the return of the death penalty given that a majority in the country does. Likewise, all the polling indicates that most Labour voters also voted Remain.

It s NOT the case the the majority of voters back capital punishment. No down to below 50%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

A majority still support it for specific things:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3802

Yes, while support hovers around 50% for the death penalty for murder that rises to 69% supporting the death penalty for serial killers

The only knockdown argument against the death penalty that I can see is the inevitable error rate under current evidential rules ("beyond reasonable doubt" is a long way from absolute certainty). If everyone wore personal bodycams, uploading in real time so there's no point in the murderer destroying or removing them, I'd be fairly relaxed about a string-em-up policy. Nothing more costly and pointless than prisons.

Personally I would only consider it for serial killers which also reduces the error rate and focuses on the most calculating killers and then only lethal injection

The drugs industry works hard to prevent its products being used in lethal injections

Most US states still execute by lethal injection though firing squad would be equally acceptable as in Utah where it is an option for death row prisoners

They struggle to get product, resulting in dodgy combinations are regular fuckups

They increasingly get them from abroad, showing the US drugs industry approach is counterproductive

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_M said:

Recidivist said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

I'd say where I live in the East Midlands is definitely in the north.

I'm from the south coast so I don't think my opinion matters very much on this subject. But I regard the north as starting just to the north of Leicester where there is a ridge of sandstone that makes the countryside look more rugged than I am used to. It just feels like you have passed into a different region there. I think there must be some underlying geological difference behind it.

Good afternoon all.

Some interesting reading here today. My rule of thumb is the North is anything further north than the river Trent.

Spot on.

JosiasJessop said:

How about: "the north is anywhere to the north of London where it is not possible to commute to London in two hours."

This could be expanded to: "civilisation is anywhere where it is possible to commute to london in two hours."

HHemmelig said:

rottenborough said:

HHemmelig said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

Have you read the tweet correctly? It implies around 80% don't want to be northerners.

The regions are so big that the results are pretty meaningless IMO. The East Midlands stretches from the coalfield of north Derbyshire right down to Northampton. That Chesterfield and Bolsover most likely identify as northern is hardly a surprise, whilst Northants is borderline home counties.

My rule of thumb has always been that Doncaster is in the North, Nottingham is in the Midlands.

Nottingham is midlands but the coalfield in the north of the county (Mansfield etc) is definitely north in a cultural sense. Richard is right I think that the boundary is approximately the Trent, though most of the city of Nottingham is north of it.

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

And every year another age-slice of them are mostly priced out of the housing market. If the Tories don't sort housing, they are doomed.

Even now the average age of first time buyers is 37 so still the vast majority of the middle aged over 35 to 65s are owner occupiers and of course most first time buyers also get parental assistance with a deposit while the Tories are building more affordable housing anyway

People aged 65 are not "middle aged", they are old. On today's life expectancies, the middle year of your life is roughly 40.

In terms of voters they are middle aged, considering you do not vote until you are 18 and you retire aged 65. Indeed the median voter is about 55

What has a 35 year old got in common with a 65 year old? Pretty much nothing nowadays.

Both are working, both no longer in education, both may well have children at home

You could say all that about people of almost any age these days. Doesn't mean they pay a high electoral price.

No. As I said the median voter is about 55, as under 18s can't vote including them is irrelevant. In theory the Tories could lose 30 and 40 year olds to Labour and win a small majority provided they won the over 50s by a big enough margin.

Depends whether the 40 year olds continue to dislike the Tories when they become 50 year olds. I think you are being hugely complacent.

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

murali_s said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Tory party faces a choice. Does it continue to modernise in pursuit if a broad, one nation pragmatic version of itself. Or does it prefer to become a more focused right wing ideological group.

Can't do both.

The Tory party since Brexit is more traditionally one nation and less ideologically right wing than under Cameron/Osborne.

It just happens to disagree with you about being in Europe.

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Look at the demographics my young Tory friend!

It's all heading in the wrong direction for the Tories...

It is the middle aged 35 to 65 year olds the Tories need for a majority, the old always vote Tory and the young always vote Labour unless one wins a landslide

I feel like at the moment, elections are being won and lost more on turnout than people switching their votes. Intuitively this goes together with political polarisation. Though I'd be interested to see if the data backs me up.

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

HHemmelig said:

rottenborough said:

HHemmelig said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

They wish they were Northerners

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/948855729477373952

Have you read the tweet correctly? It implies around 80% don't want to be northerners.

The regions are so big that the results are pretty meaningless IMO. The East Midlands stretches from the coalfield of north Derbyshire right down to Northampton. That Chesterfield and Bolsover most likely identify as northern is hardly a surprise, whilst Northants is borderline home counties.

My rule of thumb has always been that Doncaster is in the North, Nottingham is in the Midlands.

Nottingham is midlands but the coalfield in the north of the county (Mansfield etc) is definitely north in a cultural sense. Richard is right I think that the boundary is approximately the Trent, though most of the city of Nottingham is north of it.

Yet walk the Viking Way from Rutland to the Humber, and you do not see much difference in landscape or peoples - in many parts you could be in Surrey or Suffolk. Cross that two kilometres of water and it feels very different. To me, the Humber feels much more of a delineation than the Trent.

Since the Trent runs up into the Humber then that is the natural extension of the boundary. Historically Lincolnshire was considered the South.