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Starmer extends his approval lead over Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
imageStarmer extends his approval lead over Sunak – politicalbetting.com

As well as the regular general election voting intention polls we should not ignore the leader approval numbers and the latest weekly numbers from R&W sees both Sunak and Starmer taking a bit of a tumble.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2023
    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883
    edited May 2023
    2nd like Sunak
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Sunak is crap, and I think that’s now more widely understood.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Wonder when we're going to get an IPSOS/MORI poll? We've not had one since March?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Sunak is crap, and I think that’s now more widely understood.

    Sunak is crap but he is by far the best option the Tory party had when they needed yet another new Leader
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder when we're going to get an IPSOS/MORI poll? We've not had one since March?

    NEW from
    @IpsosUK
    /
    @standardnews
    : Labour lead at 16 🚨

    Labour 44% (-5 from March)
    Con 28% (+2)
    Lib Dem 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (nc)
    Other 8% (nc)

    F/W 10-16 May (changes from March)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    Sunak is crap, and I think that’s now more widely understood.

    Though crap is a considerable upgrade on his two predecessors. Probably worse than May as well, but I'm persuadable otherwise.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You may have a point but I am experiencing a little schadenfreude that you are in the bargaining phase for when it will start turning around for the Tories
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”

    +++

    It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst

    Phenomenally creepy
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    eek said:

    Sunak is crap, and I think that’s now more widely understood.

    Sunak is crap but he is by far the best option the Tory party had when they needed yet another new Leader
    That doesn’t say much.

    I just checked the runners and riders again (from the first contest, the one he lost). JFC.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder when we're going to get an IPSOS/MORI poll? We've not had one since March?

    NEW from
    @IpsosUK
    /
    @standardnews
    : Labour lead at 16 🚨

    Labour 44% (-5 from March)
    Con 28% (+2)
    Lib Dem 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (nc)
    Other 8% (nc)

    F/W 10-16 May (changes from March)
    Oh, just released today? I must be physic of something 😂
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited May 2023
    Pro_Rata said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You may have a point but I am experiencing a little schadenfreude that you are in the bargaining phase for when it will start turning around for the Tories
    The only bargaining, should Starmer fail to seal the deal, is likely to be with the Lib Dems.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”

    +++

    It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst

    Phenomenally creepy

    The problem is you’ve just spoiled it for everyone who hasn’t seen it, and in my experience very few people have seen it.

    The same director did “Capturing the Friedmans” which is equally as good / disturbing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    If Labour had a charismatic leader they’d be 30 points ahead, rather than “just” 16
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Rolf Harris was very generous to drop dead the same month the documentary about him was released.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Pro_Rata said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You may have a point but I am experiencing a little schadenfreude that you are in the bargaining phase for when it will start turning around for the Tories
    Honestly, things could get even worse for the Tories in the next Parliament, depending on where they go in Opposition.

    I think 2029 will be winnable for CON after 2024 but they could go spiraling off to a decade or more in the wilderness if the ERG are the dominant grouping after they are defeated.

    Given how the party is behaving at the moment I wouldn't be overly surprised if we have a decade of Labour government from 2024 despite the fact I think they will become unpopular quite quickly...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    If Labour had a charismatic leader they’d be 30 points ahead, rather than “just” 16

    I'm not sure the problem is a lack of charisma (though SKS is not charismatic). It's just very very hard to get more than just under half of voters to back you. People will always disagree with large aspects of what you propose.

    To give myself as an example: I'm no fan of the Tories, but my view is that in most of the ways Labour have been critical of the Tories, the actual solutions they propose are worse (SKS's lockdown enthusiasm being an obvious example). Many on the right will conclude the same.
    It's easy to say 'that lot are crap' but hard to find a proposition around which a majority can say 'that sounds much better'.
    That's not a direct criticism of Labour, just a recognition that the electorate is diverse and very difficult to get to agree with you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    GIN1138 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You may have a point but I am experiencing a little schadenfreude that you are in the bargaining phase for when it will start turning around for the Tories
    Honestly, things could get even worse for the Tories in the next Parliament, depending on where they go in Opposition.

    I think 2029 will be winnable for CON after 2024 but they could go spiraling off to a decade or more in the wilderness if the ERG are the dominant grouping after they are defeated.

    Given how the party is behaving at the moment I wouldn't be overly surprised if we have a decade of Labour government from 2024 despite the fact I think they will become unpopular quite quickly...
    I suspect Labour will win in 29. Or perhaps a Lab/Lib coalition.

    2024 is one of those “turnings” you see occasionally, like 2010, 1997, 1979, 1964.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”

    +++

    It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst

    Phenomenally creepy

    The problem is you’ve just spoiled it for everyone who hasn’t seen it, and in my experience very few people have seen it.

    The same director did “Capturing the Friedmans” which is equally as good / disturbing.
    Well it did come out in 2015 and I knew the outcome (people told me at the time) and I STILL found out it hypnotically compelling
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”

    +++

    It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst

    Phenomenally creepy

    The problem is you’ve just spoiled it for everyone who hasn’t seen it, and in my experience very few people have seen it.

    The same director did “Capturing the Friedmans” which is equally as good / disturbing.
    Well it did come out in 2015 and I knew the outcome (people told me at the time) and I STILL found out it hypnotically compelling
    I honestly did not, and my default is often to hope against hope that someone is innocent. Lucky me!

    I urge you to watch Capturing the Friedmans with a stiff drink.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151
    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2023

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    Agreed!

    EDIT: Though I wouldn't say the ERG should have no influence whatsoever as that doesn't seem very democratic given their views represent a chunk of the electorate. But obviously if/when CON get back into government it will be from the center right as always...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “In my opinion the best “murder” documentary ever.
    It just keeps getting more and more bizarro.”

    +++

    It is deeply impressive TV. Mesmerising. I did some googling after watching that final, mind-boggling episode last night and discovered that Durst recently died - in jail - and that he is now posthumously suspected of several other killings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Durst

    Phenomenally creepy

    The problem is you’ve just spoiled it for everyone who hasn’t seen it, and in my experience very few people have seen it.

    The same director did “Capturing the Friedmans” which is equally as good / disturbing.
    Well it did come out in 2015 and I knew the outcome (people told me at the time) and I STILL found out it hypnotically compelling
    I honestly did not, and my default is often to hope against hope that someone is innocent. Lucky me!

    I urge you to watch Capturing the Friedmans with a stiff drink.
    I’m checking out the rave reviews. Amongst them I find this. The BFI’s critic - who has this magnificently “BFI” take on The Jinx:

    “The problem comes when one actually watches The Jinx. The series is so manipulative, so plodding, so pointlessly morbid, so self-congratulatory, so obviously geared to deliver one, single news-making/ratings-grabbing moment “

    https://www2.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/sight-sound-magazine/reviews-recommendations/tv/jinx-not-my-documentary-renaissance

    Lol. They are such twats. Sight and Sound magazine. God help them
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
  • Rolf Harris was very generous to drop dead the same month the documentary about him was released.

    He always displayed a fondness for two little boys.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,711

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    Cameron and Osborne cut unemployment and reduced the deficit. Labour will have to take similar tough action to restore economic stability and growth and cut inflation.

    In some respects it doesn't make much difference who the new leader is of a party that has lost power if the new government does a good job on the economy. Ken Clarke would still have lost to Blair in 2001 and David Miliband still likely have lost to Cameron in 2015 even if it had been closer.

    We had regular changes of government in 1964, 1970, 1974 and then 1979 though as neither the Heath nor Wilson/Callaghan governments could manage the economy effectively until Thatcher won and finally got a grip on it
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Rolf Harris was very generous to drop dead the same month the documentary about him was released.

    He always displayed a fondness for two little boys.
    Cant believe it involved horses and wood!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    One victory for Suella Braverman today:

    Harry Sussex loses his appeal against the Home Secretary, over the process for denying him police protection.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/05/23/prince-harry-loses-second-legal-challenge-home-office/

    Now what will the judge do with costs, must be over a million?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited May 2023
    Seems a slightly odd headline when the R&W poll had the joint smallest Labour lead that that company has produced to date. They state the lead at 12% points which is still significant but they also have the Tories at 30 for the first time in ages.

    We should get much better news on inflation tomorrow and of course everyone lives and breathes the latest IMF forecast so the Tories will get a massive boost from that as newspapers and media who majored on their original figures reverse course (lol).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
  • kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    You're a horrible monster with that suggestion, it is truly the worst thing I have ever had the misfortune to read on this site.

    What kind of depraved individual orders a decaf latte?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance

    How many Brexiteers will be alive in a few years' time though?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    Seems a slightly odd headline when the R&W poll had the joint smallest Labour lead that that company has produced to date. They state the lead at 12% points which is still significant but they also have the Tories at 30 for the first time in ages.

    We should get much better news on inflation tomorrow and of course everyone lives and breathes the latest IMF forecast so the Tories will get a massive boost from that as newspapers and media who majored on their original figures reverse course (lol).

    As with all the pollsters, the R&W Lab+LD+Green and the Tory+Reform numbers remain remarkably stable.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    Alternatively, he will disappoint far fewer people than Blair did!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    So do I, for the good of the country, and if it earns Labour a second term good luck to them. But I am not optimistic, not at all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    Do you honestly think he's going to win a majority?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    Do you honestly think he's going to win a majority?
    Yes, just. The Tories are spent. Labour will not win but the Tories will lose. As is often the case.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    He might quickly become a focal point for frustration with the lack of creative thinking. It will no longer be possible to blame everything on the Tories, and if he doesn't offer something transformative, he could turn into a mere transitional figure before something new takes over, either from the left or the right.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
    Speakers were mocking Cameron and One Nation Conservatism at NatCon. It will be years before genuine One Nation Tories (not Sunak - he only seems a moderate because actual One Nation Tories have either been neutered or purged) get any semblance of control over the party again.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I didn't see any interviews, but this piece by him gives a much more interesting vision than what you describe:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/22/digital-nhs-technology-health-service-keir-starmer

    It pushes my buttons. Accelerating the adoption of new technology to unblock bottlenecks, making the NHS more finely tuned to individual needs instead of being a battery farm. Trying to bring forward diagnostics to catch diseases earlier.

    These are good proposals, smart proposals, focusing on patient experience as well as resources and efficiency.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    I've already had mine (unprompted) from my wife's hairdresser so knock me off the list.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    You're a horrible monster with that suggestion, it is truly the worst thing I have ever had the misfortune to read on this site.

    What kind of depraved individual orders a decaf latte?
    Guilty as charged.

    If I need to turn up in person to apologise for this, I will.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    Do you honestly think he's going to win a majority?
    Yes. As things stand. 30-60 seats?

    The Tories have simply run out of road
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    He might quickly become a focal point for frustration with the lack of creative thinking. It will no longer be possible to blame everything on the Tories, and if he doesn't offer something transformative, he could turn into a mere transitional figure before something new takes over, either from the left or the right.
    There is a real risk that the Tories will be every bit as self indulgent in opposition as Labour were, not offering the country a viable choice for a couple of elections. It would not be easy to find someone as ridiculous as Corbyn to put forward as PM but Braverman, for example, would come close.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I didn't see any interviews, but this piece by him gives a much more interesting vision than what you describe:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/22/digital-nhs-technology-health-service-keir-starmer

    It pushes my buttons. Accelerating the adoption of new technology to unblock bottlenecks, making the NHS more finely tuned to individual needs instead of being a battery farm. Trying to bring forward diagnostics to catch diseases earlier.

    These are good proposals, smart proposals, focusing on patient experience as well as resources and efficiency.
    For anyone interested in what Keir actually wants for to do for the NHS, read the Tony Blair Institute’s policy on healthcare.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    Seems a slightly odd headline when the R&W poll had the joint smallest Labour lead that that company has produced to date. They state the lead at 12% points which is still significant but they also have the Tories at 30 for the first time in ages.

    We should get much better news on inflation tomorrow and of course everyone lives and breathes the latest IMF forecast so the Tories will get a massive boost from that as newspapers and media who majored on their original figures reverse course (lol).

    There are alternative views ...

    https://lookstranger.substack.com/p/speech-unspun

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
    Speakers were mocking Cameron and One Nation Conservatism at NatCon. It will be years before genuine One Nation Tories (not Sunak - he only seems a moderate because actual One Nation Tories have either been neutered or purged) get any semblance of control over the party again.
    Why should “one nation” Tories be the only electable variety? Thatcher was the opposite of that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Tbh, that sounds even crappier than Brexitfest, or whatever it was called.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    You're a horrible monster with that suggestion, it is truly the worst thing I have ever had the misfortune to read on this site.

    What kind of depraved individual orders a decaf latte?
    With your 25 cups a day you must go decaf though surely? You'd spend the whole time in a fevered frenzy otherwise and it would affect your postings.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
    Speakers were mocking Cameron and One Nation Conservatism at NatCon. It will be years before genuine One Nation Tories (not Sunak - he only seems a moderate because actual One Nation Tories have either been neutered or purged) get any semblance of control over the party again.
    Why should “one nation” Tories be the only electable variety? Thatcher was the opposite of that
    It's strange how quickly people have reverted to thinking that only Blairite parties can win elections when we have the recent example of Boris Johnson's landslide.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    Do you honestly think he's going to win a majority?
    Yes. As things stand. 30-60 seats?

    The Tories have simply run out of road
    Not so.

    Oh no siree.

    There is one who can save them.

    THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance

    How many Brexiteers will be alive in a few years' time though?

    Not many who will admit to it, going on current trends.

    Even if you allow for the possibility that Brexit has objectively been a good thing, the steadily growing will of the people is to regard it as a mistake. Doesn't Matter- the public are right, even when they're wrong. And the people who persuaded the public to do this in the first place are pretty much all diminished in the public's eyes.

    To take a popular analogy, the country is not only back on the pill, but it's got a headache.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    DavidL said:

    Seems a slightly odd headline when the R&W poll had the joint smallest Labour lead that that company has produced to date. They state the lead at 12% points which is still significant but they also have the Tories at 30 for the first time in ages.

    We should get much better news on inflation tomorrow and of course everyone lives and breathes the latest IMF forecast so the Tories will get a massive boost from that as newspapers and media who majored on their original figures reverse course (lol).

    There are alternative views ...

    https://lookstranger.substack.com/p/speech-unspun

    It’s increasingly apparent there *is* serious thinking inside the Labour Party, even if Starmer manages to make it sound very dull.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited May 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Trevor insists you meet up at the (No?) Hope Tavern in Netherton, and before he'll agree to anything he'll demand five pints of Holdens and the posh Remoaner pays.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    The guardian has already had its Brexiphany


    “The truth is very different. In fact, the migration statistics reflect something that is rare indeed in the UK right now – a successful policy implemented efficiently and effectively and, even rarer, the crystallisation of a genuine “Brexit opportunity””

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/23/panic-immigration-brexit-wages-uk-economy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    edited May 2023
    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    ...
    Leon said:

    The guardian has already had its Brexiphany


    “The truth is very different. In fact, the migration statistics reflect something that is rare indeed in the UK right now – a successful policy implemented efficiently and effectively and, even rarer, the crystallisation of a genuine “Brexit opportunity””

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/23/panic-immigration-brexit-wages-uk-economy

    Its an opinion piece. Its not an editorial.

    You should have known that, ask your mate Sean for clarification. He would have understood that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883
    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    This assumes too many things.

    1) That the argument has been 'won' by remain. This is not a given. Without rehashing all the old rubbish part of the reason Brexit is seen in such bad light is effects of covid and the CoL crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine. People are associating rising prices in Tesco's with Brexit, gleefully egged on by those who should (and do) know better. Brexit so far has been poor economically, but it is not the only economic headwind.

    2) That your cohort of leave voters should apologise. Much of the rage about Brexit involves the idea that Leavers told lies and that the lies were believed. If this is the case, many of the leave voters should not need to apologise - they were fooled, taken in, deceived.

    3) Both sides lied predicted the future with very poor levels of accuracy. For every 'easiest trade deal in history' I give you 'immediate recesssion, millions unemployed'.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    edited May 2023
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
    Speaking of which, this pertains

    "...In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services..." [link]

    Whatever the point of Brexit was, I'm pretty sure "drive down workers' wages by importing cheap labour from elsewhere" wasn't it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance

    How many Brexiteers will be alive in a few years' time though?
    My numbers are wrong (typical accountant) because you'd need foursomes not pairs to make that balance up. And foursomes would introduce an awkward dynamic to the apology. The 2 Leavers might start competing as to who could offer the biggest one. We don't want that.

    But seriously, I wonder what the split actually is now. Are there more living people who voted Leave than voted Remain? That's quite an interesting question, isn't it. We can probably work it out to a reasonable confidence level from the data available. I might have a bash.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
    The same thing is happening in many Weetern democracies.

    IMHO a combination of career politicians, a toxic media, loud online campaign groups, and a combination of major world events over the past 15 years that leave very little room for manoeuvre financially.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
    Speakers were mocking Cameron and One Nation Conservatism at NatCon. It will be years before genuine One Nation Tories (not Sunak - he only seems a moderate because actual One Nation Tories have either been neutered or purged) get any semblance of control over the party again.
    In fairness it took Labour six years post defeat to get to Corbyn; the Tories are getting their ‘unelectable lunatic fringe’ phase in before they’ve even lost!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    Jonathan Portes showing he's an original thinker unencumbered by partisan politics. Great piece. To some extent this is a vindication of Dom Cummings also.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    I fiercely think you are. Starmer will campaign in prose and govern in poetry.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Though it must be said SKS still isn't exactly setting the world alight and will not be swept into Downing St on a wave of euphoria from the masses like the blessed Tony.

    Which is another reason I can see trouble ahead for Labour in the 2024-2029 Parliament..

    You could have said the same about Cameron in 2010. Indeed, many Labour commentators assumed Labour were bound to come back in 2015. And look how that turned out.
    If the Tories are going to come back and win 2029 they'd need to realise why they actually lost, sort their shit out (including ensuring the ERG have no influence whatsoever), and elect a leader is who isn't a lunatic, is likeable, and has the gravitas to be PM. But if NatCon is anything to go by it's more likely the loons will be running show post-defeat, which means they will lose in 28/29.
    And given that the NatCon wing are already setting the narrative, that will be hard.

    What would a Shadow Cabinet that was trying to win in 2029 look like anyway? Johnson and co have gutted the Conservatives far more effectively than Corbyn ever did.
    Speakers were mocking Cameron and One Nation Conservatism at NatCon. It will be years before genuine One Nation Tories (not Sunak - he only seems a moderate because actual One Nation Tories have either been neutered or purged) get any semblance of control over the party again.
    Why should “one nation” Tories be the only electable variety? Thatcher was the opposite of that
    A "no nation" Tory?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The upwards revision from the IMF today suggests that a lot of the forecasting about the UK depended on politicised assumptions about what Brexit meant that do not match what is actually happening.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
    What other solutions are there? (Apart from import people from the EU)
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
    What other solutions are there? (Apart from import people from the EU)
    Cull the over 60s?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The article, digested

    "Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".

    Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    Completely off topic but just got dad and lad seats at Wembley for this Sunday’s League 2 playoff final. £75 all in for category 2 seats, which is not bad really. It’ll be his first trip to Wembley; fully expect 35k+ County fans there with us (dunno what Carlisle will bring; 20k maybe?). Expecting a glorious day in the sunshine, hopefully cheering Stockport on to a second successive promotion.

    All those moaning Minnies who decry the playoff system can get in the sea/bin. They’re brilliant and make for fantastic occasions.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic. So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    I don't always agree with you but I think you're bang on on this. The retreat of both parties into managerialism, technocracy and comfort-food issues like the culture war is, to put it politely, disappointing. Neither Lab nor Con seem to understand that we have less money coming in, a larger cohort of elderly who need expensive care, and a smaller cohort of younger people to pay for it. The only solution proferred (I think by accident) is to import more and more people from India and Africa, which is not the option I would have picked.
    The same thing is happening in many Weetern democracies.

    IMHO a combination of career politicians, a toxic media, loud online campaign groups, and a combination of major world events over the past 15 years that leave very little room for manoeuvre financially.
    I would have phrased to differently - in fact I did, obvs :) - but yes you are correct.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The article, digested

    "Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".

    Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
    No. He’s saying Bulgarian Big Issue sellers are being replaced by Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. Which means Brexit is working - better than he expected - which means the country will get richer - quicker than he expected - which means Brexit was the right choice
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance
    Perhaps. But let's do the Big Brexit Apology first, given I've designed it and everything. We can road-test it on here. Match each PB remainer with 'their' PB leaver who will deliver the (brief but heartfelt) apology to them personally. I bags you. No rush but when you're ready.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    kinabalu said:

    Are there more living people who voted Leave than voted Remain?

    Probably yes. Bear in mind the most elderly cohort in the referendum were the tail end of the WW2 generation and they were Remainery.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The article, digested

    "Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".

    Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
    No. He’s saying Bulgarian Big Issue sellers are being replaced by Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. Which means Brexit is working - better than he expected - which means the country will get richer - quicker than he expected - which means Brexit was the right choice
    No he isn't saying Brexit was the right choice - he's saying immigration is working better than expected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    Alternatively, in a few years you will have a
    Brexiphany - a moment of piercing spiritual insight when you and all the other Remoaner idiots realise you were wrong and Brexit was right

    You will come to us Brexiteers to be shrived, and we shall generously forgive you, insisting merely that your left buttock is modestly tattooed with the smiling face of Nigel Farage, symbolising your penance
    Perhaps. But let's do the Big Brexit Apology first, given I've designed it and everything. We can road-test it on here. Match each PB remainer with 'their' PB leaver who will deliver the (brief but heartfelt) apology to them personally. I bags you. No rush but when you're ready.
    You chose the wrong day to ask for an apology (not that you were ever going to get one)

    The guardian has turned. Brexit = good
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Ghedebrav said:

    Completely off topic but just got dad and lad seats at Wembley for this Sunday’s League 2 playoff final. £75 all in for category 2 seats, which is not bad really. It’ll be his first trip to Wembley; fully expect 35k+ County fans there with us (dunno what Carlisle will bring; 20k maybe?). Expecting a glorious day in the sunshine, hopefully cheering Stockport on to a second successive promotion.

    All those moaning Minnies who decry the playoff system can get in the sea/bin. They’re brilliant and make for fantastic occasions.

    No offence, but I hope Carlisle give you a proper good stuffing.
    I once got attacked by some Stockport fans and I've always hated the team since.

    I agree with you about the playoffs, great to have the run in when even teams at low as 10th have a hope of sneaking in in the final few weeks.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Rishi Sunak's difficulty in deciding whether or not there should be an inquiry into Suella Braverman's conduct reminds me of an old story about a maths lecturer.

    In the course of a lecture, he remarked in passing that such-and-such a statement was obviously true. A student nervously raised his hand and said "Is that really obvious?". The lecturer looked puzzled, pondered for a few minutes and then left the room.

    Half an hour later he returned, looking relieved. "Yes, it is obvious!" he announced, and continued the lecture without further comment.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Keir is uncharismatic.
    So were Stanley Baldwin and Clem Attlee.

    His interviews yesterday about his plans to reform the NHS were beyond disappointing. All they can come up with is more: more doctors, more nurses, more training, more capacity. Sooner or later we are going to have to work out what kind of health care we can do with less of. A Labour government is capable of being far more radical here than a Tory government who are never trusted with the NHS despite looking after it for the vast majority of its history.

    The costs of end of life care and the effort put into giving people a few more all too often painful months is unsustainable. We need to focus on treatments that cost less not more. We need to drop some of the fripperies. The government needs to stop trying to hide behind NICE and face some of these dilemmas. But they won't.
    Yes, this is my fear. Starmer is going to be the middle manager of further decline

    He will have a large majority and a country willing him on and the potential to make radical reform (which, as you rightly note, only Labour could do) but he will bungle it through caution and timidity. And another 5 years will be wasted

    I fiercely hope I’m wrong
    I fiercely think you are. Starmer will campaign in prose and govern in poetry.
    There are two ways to get important but difficult things done. One is to swagger and go big on them. The other is to get consent by making them sound really boring. Thatcher and Major, if you like. Both approaches can be made to work, both have their risks.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883
    Huge off topic rant. Lots of press yesterday that Graeme Souness is going to swim the channel for a charity. Fair does, thats a great effort.

    Turns out he's not actually swimming the channel, he's part of a relay.

    Now its still a good effort - open water swimming in the English Channel is tough, but its not 'swimming the channel' in my eyes. This is not the first time I've seen this - Alex Brooker did this with Channel 4 a while back.

    You'd never say you'd run a marathon if in fact you had done a few miles of a relay, would you?

    https://standard.co.uk/news/uk/epidermolysis-bullosa-butterfly-skin-graeme-souness-debra-charity-b1082876.html

    Am I just a curmudgeonly old git?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    kinabalu said:

    Perhaps. But let's do the Big Brexit Apology first, given I've designed it and everything. We can road-test it on here. Match each PB remainer with 'their' PB leaver who will deliver the (brief but heartfelt) apology to them personally. I bags you. No rush but when you're ready.

    If Leon is your Brexiter, I bags SeanT
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Ghedebrav said:

    Completely off topic but just got dad and lad seats at Wembley for this Sunday’s League 2 playoff final. £75 all in for category 2 seats, which is not bad really. It’ll be his first trip to Wembley; fully expect 35k+ County fans there with us (dunno what Carlisle will bring; 20k maybe?). Expecting a glorious day in the sunshine, hopefully cheering Stockport on to a second successive promotion.

    All those moaning Minnies who decry the playoff system can get in the sea/bin. They’re brilliant and make for fantastic occasions.

    What joyless dork decries the playoffs? They are obviously a lot of end-of-season fun
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    If the answer is more tech bros, the questions are wrong
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    This assumes too many things.

    1) That the argument has been 'won' by remain. This is not a given. Without rehashing all the old rubbish part of the reason Brexit is seen in such bad light is effects of covid and the CoL crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine. People are associating rising prices in Tesco's with Brexit, gleefully egged on by those who should (and do) know better. Brexit so far has been poor economically, but it is not the only economic headwind.

    2) That your cohort of leave voters should apologise. Much of the rage about Brexit involves the idea that Leavers told lies and that the lies were believed. If this is the case, many of the leave voters should not need to apologise - they were fooled, taken in, deceived.

    3) Both sides lied predicted the future with very poor levels of accuracy. For every 'easiest trade deal in history' I give you 'immediate recesssion, millions unemployed'.
    Remain conducted an abysmal campaign, and for that alone deserved to lose, but lie? Their "lies" have turned into accurate premonitions.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,242
    Courthouse News Service - Kari Lake loses election challenge

    A county judge says Lake provided no evidence that mail-in ballot signature verification wasn’t conducted during the 2020 Arizona General Election.

    Katie Hobbs is rightfully Arizona’s 24th governor, a county judge ruled for the second time Monday.

    Following three days of trial asking whether the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election was stolen from former television news anchor Kari Lake based on her claim that mail-in ballot signature verification wasn't conducted, Maricopa County Judge Peter Thompson has ruled against Lake.

    Lake, who claimed the election was stolen before the results were even counted, sued Hobbs, the Arizona Secretary of State and Maricopa County on seven claims of mass voter fraud soon after losing to Hobbs by roughly 17,000 votes. The case made its way to the Arizona Supreme Court before being sent back to trial court on one remaining claim dealing with mail-in ballot signatures. . . .

    To win, Lake needed to prove “by a competent mathematical basis” that signature verification wasn’t conducted and the lack of verification affected the outcome of the election. This was a concession from her original intent to call into question a specific number of ballots that were fraudulently counted, which Thompson said would have been “a herculean evidentiary endeavor.”

    Lake’s legal team relied on testimony of two whistleblowers who worked in the first of a three-level signature verification process for Maricopa County. While the former election workers expressed concerns over whether the process was being done correctly, both testified to doing their jobs diligently, throwing a blanket over Lake’s claim that the process didn’t exist. . . .

    Lake’s attorneys zeroed in on the number 70,000, which they say represents the number of ballots on which signatures were verified in less than two seconds. That should be impossible, they claim. But testimony from Ray Valenzuela, Maricopa County’s elections director, poked holes in their mathematical assertions. And even if the number were accurate, Thompson said it still wouldn’t sufficient to support the assertion that no verification was done. . . .

    The numbers Lake’s case hinged on were compiled by expert witness Erich Speckin, a self-purported forensic document analyst and handwriting expert. . . .

    Ultimately, Thompson found no “clear and convincing evidence” of any misconduct — or lack of conduct — that altered the outcome of the 2022 election. . . .

    It’s unclear at this time if Lake will appeal the decision.

    https://www.courthousenews.com/kari-lake-loses-election-challenge/

    SSI - word on street is that Leon's latest cutie pie politico will run for US Senate in 2024.

    As for possibility of being tagged as Trump's running mate in 2024 - PROVIDED that #45 actually secures his own GOP nomination for POTUS - think it is NOT likely.

    Why? Because the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo does NOT like losers. EXCEPT for himself, of course!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited May 2023
    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    Jonathan Portes showing he's an original thinker unencumbered by partisan politics. Great piece. To some extent this is a vindication of Dom Cummings also.
    Jonathan Portes is one of the few remainer commentators (or commentators full stop) who actually cares about the data, and will only blame or praise brexit what he actually thinks is down to brexit. David Smith, the economics editor of The Times is a similar bright spot in the landscape.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926

    kinabalu said:

    I fiercely think you are. Starmer will campaign in prose and govern in poetry.

    There are two ways to get important but difficult things done. One is to swagger and go big on them. The other is to get consent by making them sound really boring
    Campaign on apathy and leave government to the pros ?


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The article, digested

    "Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".

    Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
    No. He’s saying Bulgarian Big Issue sellers are being replaced by Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. Which means Brexit is working - better than he expected - which means the country will get richer - quicker than he expected - which means Brexit was the right choice
    I am not convinced that "the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services" are made up solely of Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. More likely Nigerian and Indian nurses and doctors, Indian and Russian coders, and Egyptian bankers. I don't know what a "Malaysian tech bro" is and I suspect I would be dubious if I did.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,883

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, from PT for those asking me how the Big Brexit Apology will work. I've given this some thought and I'd suggest as follows:

    By my calculations because of differential death rates the number of people who voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 referendum is identical at 15,674,232 apiece. Matched up by algorithm this generates 7,837,116 pairs, one Remainer and one Leaver, like Tinder except it’s done at random not on looks or compatibility. The results are mailed out (each Remainer told who ‘their’ Leaver is and vice versa) and contact details are included so a meet-up for each duo can be arranged. 4 weeks are allowed for this, otherwise there are punishments. Everyone complies (not fancying any of the punishments) and the stage is set for the business end of the exercise.

    Let’s assume I’m matched with a Leaver from Dudley called Trevor. We exchange texts and decide that he’ll come to Hampstead because I don’t want to go to Dudley. I tell him Wednesday 10.30 sharp at the Coffee Cup.

    Trevor arrives (thankfully not as hirsute as his picture) and joins me at my table. I put down my Guardian and give him my fullest. Straight off he does the necessary. “I’m truly sorry,” he says. That’s all that’s required. There’s no need to make a meal of it. The point of this is to heal not foster further ill-feeling. I receive his brief but heartfelt offering in similar generous spirit. “It’s ok, Trevor,” I say, “to be human is to err.” He looks relieved. It’s as if a huge weight has been lifted from him. I smile and ask what sort of bespoke decaf latte he wants.

    The two of us then pass a pleasant half hour getting to know each other. No politics of course. It could be he likes Boris Johnson (being from Dudley) and we don’t want to risk something like that spoiling the vibe between us. The objective is to part on friendly terms even though our paths are unlikely to cross again. Which is what we do. Remainer Me and Leaver Trevor part on the best of terms. The apology has cleared the decks for this to happen. I feel better, he feels better. We can MOVE ON. And as it is for us so it is for the entire country, assuming the other 7,837,115 meets go equally well – which they surely will.

    This assumes too many things.

    1) That the argument has been 'won' by remain. This is not a given. Without rehashing all the old rubbish part of the reason Brexit is seen in such bad light is effects of covid and the CoL crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine. People are associating rising prices in Tesco's with Brexit, gleefully egged on by those who should (and do) know better. Brexit so far has been poor economically, but it is not the only economic headwind.

    2) That your cohort of leave voters should apologise. Much of the rage about Brexit involves the idea that Leavers told lies and that the lies were believed. If this is the case, many of the leave voters should not need to apologise - they were fooled, taken in, deceived.

    3) Both sides lied predicted the future with very poor levels of accuracy. For every 'easiest trade deal in history' I give you 'immediate recesssion, millions unemployed'.
    Remain conducted an abysmal campaign, and for that alone deserved to lose, but lie? Their "lies" have turned into accurate premonitions.
    Some yes, others no. I missed the immediate crisis budget and I'm still missing the millions of unemployed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Farooq said:

    If the answer is more tech bros, the questions are wrong

    Yet your answer is “more Romanian big issue sellers”. No wonder you lost
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    Jonathan Portes showing he's an original thinker unencumbered by partisan politics. Great piece. To some extent this is a vindication of Dom Cummings also.
    Portes is a great economist. I think his piece in the Guardian though is too ready to focus on one positive aspect of Brexit - the increased net migration and changed composition of inflows of people - without looking at the broader picture and especially the impact on trade and inwards investment, which remains clearly negative. Like him, I am happy to admit that Brexit has actually increased net immigration rather than reduced it. The problem I have with the new immigration regime isn't the increased numbers coming in, which I have no problem with, but the loss of reciprocity.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited May 2023
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    The article, digested

    "Your fresh fruit is going to get more expensive but nurses' salaries are going to fall because Nigerian nurses are far cheaper than you".

    Gee. Thanks, Guardian.
    No. He’s saying Bulgarian Big Issue sellers are being replaced by Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. Which means Brexit is working - better than he expected - which means the country will get richer - quicker than he expected - which means Brexit was the right choice
    I am not convinced that "the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services" are made up solely of Egyptian bankers and Malaysian tech bros. More likely Nigerian and Indian nurses and doctors, Indian and Russian coders, and Egyptian bankers. I don't know what a "Malaysian tech bro" is and I suspect I would be dubious if I did.
    I think you could make an argument that Indian nurses suppress wages more than spanish nurses do. But since 70% of foreign nurses were from outside the EU even before Brexit, I'm not sure it's a very strong point. And that's counting Irish nurses as EU.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    “The vast majority of economists, including me, thought Brexit would make the UK considerably less open to both trade and migration with the EU, but somewhat more so to the rest of the world. We were right. We also thought that the downsides of the former would outweigh the upside of the latter. We were wrong.

    “In fact, the new post-Brexit migration system has achieved its key objectives. By ending free movement, it has reduced the flow of relatively lower skilled and lower paid workers to some sectors. But by liberalising migration flows from the rest of the world, it has substantially increased those coming to work in the NHS, the care sector, and high-skilled and high-paid roles in information and communications technology, finance and professional services.”

    Well I never

    Jonathan Portes showing he's an original thinker unencumbered by partisan politics. Great piece. To some extent this is a vindication of Dom Cummings also.
    Portes is a great economist. I think his piece in the Guardian though is too ready to focus on one positive aspect of Brexit - the increased net migration and changed composition of inflows of people - without looking at the broader picture and especially the impact on trade and inwards investment, which remains clearly negative. Like him, I am happy to admit that Brexit has actually increased net immigration rather than reduced it. The problem I have with the new immigration regime isn't the increased numbers coming in, which I have no problem with, but the loss of reciprocity.
    Importing relatively smarter migrants will - as he says - eventually lift GDP per capita rather than just lifting GDP - which is what EU Free Movement did
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    If the answer is more tech bros, the questions are wrong

    Yet your answer is “more Romanian big issue sellers”. No wonder you lost
    That's the first time I've heard anyone advocating either.

    No need to apologise; save that for @kinabalu
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    "A time will come when politicians can tell voters that Brexit was a turkey of an idea, that it makes Britain poorer, that it doesn’t even work as an immigration-cutting retreat from the world. That time isn’t far off. But it isn’t now. Not quite."

    Starmer must wait before breaking the Brexit omertà
    Voters know they made a mistake. That doesn’t mean they are ready to be told so

    https://www.ft.com/content/def7d504-c68e-4682-a237-192334e07034
This discussion has been closed.