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How opinion has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
imageHow opinion has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    First like Labour
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865
    Second like the Tories.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Third, like Ron DeSantis, who seems to be close to announcing his run.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Nice Sankey diagram.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    More blue/green interchange than one might naively expect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Starmer doesn't believe much more than Cameron or Blair did, establishment centrists all focused on power. (Boris really wasn't that ideological either, Brexit was a means to an end, him becoming PM).

    The Tories are just beginning what Labour went through post Blair, starting a real ideological debate on conservative principles as Labour did on socialism, in a more pure social democratic form under Brown and Ed Miliband and purer under Corbyn.

    Ideology first normally doesn't win elections, except for Attlee and Thatcher but it does at least offer more intellectual discussion than power for its own sake often does
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    edited May 2023

    More blue/green interchange than one might naively expect.

    There are traditional Greenies who are Green because they like conserving things, who are quite sympathetic to conservatism; and there are Conservatives who are NIMBYS who will vote for whoever is most vociferous in opposing development, and neither are necessarily incoherent positions. There are also Conservatives who are fed up with the Conservative Party but who would never dream of voting Labour and have their own reasons for staying away from the Lib Dems but who weirdly see the Greens as nice and unthreatening.

    And there are people who vote for all sorts of weird reasons, as Nick P will amusingly attest (like they like the tallest candidate, or have furiously fallen out with individual parties for an array of baffling reasons.)
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Hmm. Just pondering a potential Solihull By-election.

    I think I’d price it up;

    4/6 LD
    2/1 Con
    33/1 Greens
    33/1 Lab

    Depends, to an extent, on the candidates.

    Anyone argue with my odds?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Starmer doesn't believe much more than Cameron or Blair did, establishment centrists all focused on power. (Boris really wasn't that ideological either, Brexit was a means to an end, him becoming PM).

    The Tories are just beginning what Labour went through post Blair, starting a real ideological debate on conservative principles as Labour did on socialism, in a more pure social democratic form under Brown and Ed Miliband and purer under Corbyn.

    Ideology first normally doesn't win elections, except for Attlee and Thatcher but it does at least offer more intellectual discussion than power for its own sake often does
    I'm not quite sure what/or whether Starmer believes in, just yet.

    I have an underlying sense that he actually does quite strongly believe in a soft-left programme like Miliband's, much more than only, or at least definitely only in combination with Blairism, but it's too early to say. If I was Starmer I'd think it would make sense to combine Blairite aspirationalism with soft leftism, to cover all the bases, and so I expect that's what he'll do.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080
    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Starmer doesn't believe much more than Cameron or Blair did, establishment centrists all focused on power. (Boris really wasn't that ideological either, Brexit was a means to an end, him becoming PM).

    The Tories are just beginning what Labour went through post Blair, starting a real ideological debate on conservative principles as Labour did on socialism, in a more pure social democratic form under Brown and Ed Miliband and purer under Corbyn.

    Ideology first normally doesn't win elections, except for Attlee and Thatcher but it does at least offer more intellectual discussion than power for its own sake often does
    I'm not quite sure what/or whether Starmer believes in, just yet.

    I have an underlying sense that he actually does quite strongly believe in a soft-left programme like Miliband's, much more than only, or at least definitely only in combination with Blairism, but it's too early to say. If I was Starmer I'd think it would make sense to combine Blairite aspirationalism with soft leftism, to cover all the bases, and so I expect that's what he'll do.
    To some extent that is true, maybe in his heart he is Ed Miliband in ideology but in his head he knows he needs to be more Blair to win
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Car tax up from £180 to £200!

    Thanks, Rishi!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Third, like Ron DeSantis, who seems to be close to announcing his run.

    I suppose the embarrassment of getting whupped is not as bad as the embarrassment of so clearly intending to run and then not doing so.

    Plus I guess he has to be around in case Trump suffers a heart attack or something.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    kle4 said:

    Third, like Ron DeSantis, who seems to be close to announcing his run.

    I suppose the embarrassment of getting whupped is not as bad as the embarrassment of so clearly intending to run and then not doing so.

    Plus I guess he has to be around in case Trump suffers a heart attack or something.
    Implausible.

    That would require him to have a heart.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Starmer doesn't believe much more than Cameron or Blair did, establishment centrists all focused on power. (Boris really wasn't that ideological either, Brexit was a means to an end, him becoming PM).

    The Tories are just beginning what Labour went through post Blair, starting a real ideological debate on conservative principles as Labour did on socialism, in a more pure social democratic form under Brown and Ed Miliband and purer under Corbyn.

    Ideology first normally doesn't win elections, except for Attlee and Thatcher but it does at least offer more intellectual discussion than power for its own sake often does
    I'm not quite sure what/or whether Starmer believes in, just yet.

    I have an underlying sense that he actually does quite strongly believe in a soft-left programme like Miliband's, much more than only, or at least definitely only in combination with Blairism, but it's too early to say. If I was Starmer I'd think it would make sense to combine Blairite aspirationalism with soft leftism, to cover all the bases, and so I expect that's what he'll do.
    To some extent that is true, maybe in his heart he is Ed Miliband in ideology but in his head he knows he needs to be more Blair to win
    Indeed. The Blair-Miliband of our days, I think.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING

    The faintest whiff of leather and you're slick and ready.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    London was the English region with the lowest annual house price inflation, with average prices increasing by 6.7% in the 12 months to December 2022
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    ping said:

    Hmm. Just pondering a potential Solihull By-election.

    I think I’d price it up;

    4/6 LD
    2/1 Con
    33/1 Greens
    33/1 Lab

    Depends, to an extent, on the candidates.

    Anyone argue with my odds?

    I think that's about right: LibDems favourites, but not overwhelmingly so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    London was the English region with the lowest annual house price inflation, with average prices increasing by 6.7% in the 12 months to December 2022
    Only as it had average house prices double the UK average and a 1/3 higher even than SE England already
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    London was the English region with the lowest annual house price inflation, with average prices increasing by 6.7% in the 12 months to December 2022
    Only as it had average house prices double the UK average and a 1/3 higher even than SE England already
    I think what you meant to say was "oh, how interesting, well done Mr Khan"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,007

    Car tax up from £180 to £200!

    Thanks, Rishi!

    Pondering a purchase of a 14 year old Hyundai. Small petrol engine. £200 tax which is a surprise...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Well thinking back through what I can remember, he appears to believe
    - we should all be able to work from home
    - it should be easier to strike
    - something about a wealth tax, perhaps
    - more lockdowns
    - some culture war stuff about transsexuals and BLM, but then sometimes not, but actually yes, mostly
    - cutting student fees; hang on, actually, no, we didn't mean that
    - still Brexit, but not abolishing any EU laws
    - extending the franchise to anyone who might vote Labour
    - taxing the absolute f*ck out of private schools

    There might be some other stuff, but that's what I remember.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Most of the phenomena that people blame on "Sadiq Khan's London" are more the fault of Tony Blair and the PMs who followed him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Taxes in London and regulations are climbing under his regime and he also hasn't built enough new houses and flats in the capital or enabled the conditions for enterprise and development approvals
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited May 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Hmm. Just pondering a potential Solihull By-election.

    I think I’d price it up;

    4/6 LD
    2/1 Con
    33/1 Greens
    33/1 Lab

    Depends, to an extent, on the candidates.

    Anyone argue with my odds?

    I think that's about right: LibDems favourites, but not overwhelmingly so.
    Thing is, if they go for the candidates I think they’ll go for, the tories might just have the advantage.

    The constituency has been pretty solidly blue since 1945. The LDs won only very narrowly in 2005/10, from a much stronger local position.

    Also, the tories did pretty well, considering, in the locals.

    I think the tories are likely to be value in any b/e betting contest. I’d buy at 2/1.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
    You do know that Wendy Cope is a parodist?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Taxes in London and regulations are climbing under his regime and he also hasn't built enough new houses and flats in the capital or enabled the conditions for enterprise and development approvals
    Sounds quite similar to the government, then.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING

    People on the Left of the political spectrum criticising people on the Right of the political spectrum "Hysterical" says noted holiday salesperson. Next up, CAPS!
    I'm more interested in what these 'serious ideas', which we apparently missed, might be.

    Unless that's shorthand for seriously nuts ?
    Well, speaking as a soft-leftie, I don't entirely disagree with one excerpt I heard from Cruella's speech, something like "it's immoral to expect white people to feel guilty for the sins of distant ancestors just by virtue of their ethnicity".

    Contentious, and in her case also wrapped up in Trumpite conspiracism about "Cultural Marxism" and general blanket "anti-woke", but it is the sort of issue that I think is worth raising in the current climate, and as it's not the sort of thing I'd expect either of the opposition parties to raise, it does serve some sort of useful purpose, I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    ping said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Hmm. Just pondering a potential Solihull By-election.

    I think I’d price it up;

    4/6 LD
    2/1 Con
    33/1 Greens
    33/1 Lab

    Depends, to an extent, on the candidates.

    Anyone argue with my odds?

    I think that's about right: LibDems favourites, but not overwhelmingly so.
    Thing is, if they go for the candidates I think they’ll go for, the tories might just have the advantage.

    The constituency has been pretty solidly blue since 1945. The LDs won only very narrowly in 2005/10, from a much stronger local position.

    Also, the tories did pretty well, considering, in the locals.

    I think the tories are likely to be value in any b/e betting contest. I’d buy at 2/1.
    In byelections, you tend to see big swings against incumbent governments.

    In Chesham and Amersham, they fell from 55.4% to 35.5%.
    In North Shropshire, they dropped from 62.7% to 31.6%.
    In Tiverton and Honiton, it was 53.1% to 38.4%.
    In Wakefield, from 47.3% to 30.3%.

    Only in Old Bexley & Sidcup did the Conservative vote hold up reasonably well, dropping just 13%.

    But you could make the case that the government is less popular now than it was, and also that - if the LibDems are the major challengers - then the Conservative vote share tends to drop more.

    The Conservatives would probably need to see their vote drop no more than 15%. Any more than that, and they'd probably be done for.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    This is potentially interesting re the Post Office Inquiry.

    https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/jenkins-wants-inquiry-immunity/

    "Gareth Jenkins, the former Fujitsu engineer who ha become a person of interest to the Metropolitan Police, has demanded certain assurances from the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry before he gives evidence.

    Jenkins, the subject of the first Clarke Advice and a spectre at the feast during the Bates v Post Office litigation wants an undertaking from the Attorney General that he will not be criminally prosecuted over any testimony he gives to the inquiry.

    This is not an unheard-of request. It was put to use recently in the ongoing Grenfell inquiry. If a potential witness asks for an ‘Attorney General’s undertaking’, and it is supported by the inquiry chair, then the AG makes a decision."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,758
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
    God, that's awful. I once made the mistake of saying what I really thought of a poem in an English exam. The teacher agreed but did not give me much of a mark!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Lol. Conservative conferences are stage managed. LD conferences have open debates. So that is bollocks isn't it. You have only become aware because for once Tories are having a (breakaway) conference with debates and we can see why the normal one is stage managed.

    Have you ever watched a debate in another party's conference or are you as usual talking out of your arse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Lol. Conservative conferences are stage managed. LD conferences have open debates. So that is bollocks isn't it. You have only become aware because for once Tories are having a (breakaway) conference with debates and we can see why the normal one is stage managed.

    Have you ever watched a debate in another party's conference or are you as usual talking out of your arse.
    Michael Gove says Tories will not win election with culture wars
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/16/michael-gove-highlights-civility-over-culture-wars-in-speech-to-natcon
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    edited May 2023
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Taxes in London and regulations are climbing under his regime and he also hasn't built enough new houses and flats in the capital or enabled the conditions for enterprise and development approvals
    Are you in favour of building on the green belt in London then; or putting up blocks of flats in the middle of suburbs etc (of the kind that Theresa Villiers is concerned about?)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    An illustration, and a reminder, if one were needed, of just how severe many current social problems are.

    These kinds of stories are not just the result of inflation. I live in hope that Therese Coffey will have an epiphany from her religious convictions one night, and realise how much damage all her repression of successive DWP enquiries into her failed welfare policies, punishment and withdrawal of benefits, sanctioning of people, Osborne's bedroom taxes and freezing of benefits, has done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    darkage said:


    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Taxes in London and regulations are climbing under his regime and he also hasn't built enough new houses and flats in the capital or enabled the conditions for enterprise and development approvals
    Are you in favour of building on the green belt in London then; or putting up blocks of flats in the middle of suburbs etc (of the kind that Theresa Villiers is concerned about?)
    Plenty of brownbelt land to build on and as I said before I am a fan of well designed high rise blocks, especially in cities
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Boots have the ridiculous idea of printing an offer instead of a receipt first on their self service machines. Held me up for ages when the alarm went off with the security tags on the baby powder I'd just bought
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    I think this is a very relevant point. They have one note, which makes it all hard to take in, and lurch into defensive whinging about being picked on or a global conspiracy of left wing neo marxist woke liberals or whatever, and whilst many people are open to complaints about some of the things they are raising, the histrionics, like all such performances, really only make the speaker feel better about themselves.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    Apparently the deadline has passed for Jack Monroe to instigate legal proceedings against Lee Anderson, Martin Daubney and Lozza.

    https://twitter.com/archrose90/status/1658525742907392006?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    May was broadly heading towards no-deal, raising it as a threat more and more often, before Grieve, and others intervened on behalf of parliament.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151
    Does anyone still think the polls are narrowing?

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    3h
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead - Savanta's highest since early February

    🌹Lab 46 (=)
    🌳Con 29 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (=)
    🎗️SNP 3 (-1)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,214 UK adults, 12-14 May

    (chg from 5-7)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    More blue/green interchange than one might naively expect.

    I was thinking the same.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    Hopefully it goes as well as Change UK...
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The Tories are currently on track to deliver a decade out of power.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    @Richard_Tyndall hello Sir, I am back
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,054

    Car tax up from £180 to £200!

    Thanks, Rishi!

    Pondering a purchase of a 14 year old Hyundai. Small petrol engine. £200 tax which is a surprise...
    Sometimes I look at old fast estate cars as a potential second vehicle - but the tax can be outrageous. The fastest Saab 95 aeros of the early 2000s are almost £600 a year.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Lol. Conservative conferences are stage managed. LD conferences have open debates. So that is bollocks isn't it. You have only become aware because for once Tories are having a (breakaway) conference with debates and we can see why the normal one is stage managed.

    Have you ever watched a debate in another party's conference or are you as usual talking out of your arse.
    Michael Gove says Tories will not win election with culture wars
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/16/michael-gove-highlights-civility-over-culture-wars-in-speech-to-natcon
    He’s right, most people don’t care. It’s the economy, the cost of living, health, education and many other issues that take precedence.

    My heart sunk when I heard a Tory MP using the term cultural Marxism. Usually the preserve of conspiracy theorists on Twitter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    edited May 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    Isn’t the piece referring to the MPs rather than the leaders? Pretty sure the words ‘no deal’ escaped from the lips of a fair few of them, with varying degrees of sincerity.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    @Richard_Tyndall hello Sir, I am back

    Excellent. Now stay here this time :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    Nutter Party more like :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    Does anyone still think the polls are narrowing?

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    3h
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead - Savanta's highest since early February

    🌹Lab 46 (=)
    🌳Con 29 (-1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (=)
    🎗️SNP 3 (-1)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,214 UK adults, 12-14 May

    (chg from 5-7)

    Broken, sleazy Tories and SNP on the slide!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    'No-deal Brexit is only way to take control of UK borders, says ex-Tory leader'

    https://tinyurl.com/2ymyv8ht
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    Not happening under FPTP, same as Labour never split between Corbynite and Blairite/social democrat wings in opposition.

    Only way it might happen is with PR
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,458
    edited May 2023
    My reading of the National Conservatism Conference is that they are hoping that the political battleground will move on to a fight to the death between cultural marxism and cultural fascism, with the latter winning via a knockout blow. The culture war to end all culture wars.

    Meanwhile, most of us would just like competent and sane governance - in my case, from the left of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:


    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    Doing both at once will be tricky, though, especially now the other lot aren't scary.

    As for the wider issue, NatCons seem to have recognised they are in a hole (good), but not how much the hole is of their own making. Hence the (sorry but they are) bonkers suggestions for ways forward. Take this vignette;

    A case in point: after a long morning of paeans to natalism, Ed West pointed out that the most effective contraceptive in the world is the London housing market.

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1658493389657210881
    Well it is Mayor Khan who is largely responsible for the state of the London housing market
    Really? Not the fact that London is a massively important financial, business and cultural centre, in a politically stable country with relatively modest taxes, the rule of law, and some fabulous restaurants?

    None of which, if we're being honest, Mayor Kahn is responsible for.
    Taxes in London and regulations are climbing under his regime and he also hasn't built enough new houses and flats in the capital or enabled the conditions for enterprise and development approvals
    Are you in favour of building on the green belt in London then; or putting up blocks of flats in the middle of suburbs etc (of the kind that Theresa Villiers is concerned about?)
    Plenty of brownbelt land to build on and as I said before I am a fan of well designed high rise blocks, especially in cities
    You are, but plenty are not in favour of it. Let's please remember than not ever field is greenbelt, and not everything in the green belt is some unique and beautiful piece of fertile land.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,151

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    The leader's didn't - and in fact Boris quickly getting a deal, albeit one he now seems to think was awful, shows claims he wanted no deal was wrong - but surely plenty of MPs did? And do they overlap with the people at the event?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Re the National Conservative conference. It’s getting predictably trashed by hysterical lefties but at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    What does Starmer believe in? The Lib Dems? I have no clue. They never discuss ANYTHING


    Some of the points being made seemed quite off the wall, others were rather good. That's the nature of conferences. But, it does all beg the question "That's fair enough, but what have you been doing about it for the past 13 years?"
    Fighting the woke marxists. Unsuccessfully, by their own account.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    at least the Tories are having a debate, and engaging each other with interesting and serious ideas

    They are not remotely serious, and are interesting only in so far as they show how utterly deranged they are


    Which Tory leader ever *called for* No Deal? Whoever wrote that was afflicted with Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    The leader's didn't - and in fact Boris quickly getting a deal, albeit one he now seems to think was awful, shows claims he wanted no deal was wrong - but surely plenty of MPs did? And do they overlap with the people at the event?
    Though I do recall Boris being keen on an 'Australian-style trade deal' at one point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    The MPs never quite replicated the feeling and wishes of the Members. That's still also true of the Tories, but not to the same degree - they're closer.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701

    My reading of the National Conservatism Conference is that they are hoping that the political battleground will move on to a fight to the death between cultural marxism and cultural fascism, with the latter winning via a knockout blow. The culture war to end all culture wars.

    Meanwhile, most of us would just like competent and sane governance - in my case, from the left of course.

    I personally don’t care if it is centre left or centre right. However the latter is clearly a non runner for now and the foreseeable future.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    One of the subsidiary great mysteries of 2015-20. Why was Momentum etc so bad at taking over the Labour Party when they had the chance?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    Does it help to picture it as "One People, One Nation, One Leader"?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    @BestForBritain
    2m
    Amazing how many of Sunak's 'achievements' are basically a slow, painful reboot of things (often inferior versions of things) the UK had before Brexit and threw away.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1658544962458337281
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    I was just a paper hanger, no one more obscurer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2023

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    Really? Then why did most Conservative MPs vote for Rishi not Truss twice last year. The simple fact of the matter is it was Tory and Labour members who elected Truss and Corbyn respectively to their leadership roles (in Truss' case including PM) not Tory MPs and not Labour MPs and indeed not the electorate as a whole
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    edited May 2023
    On to much more serious matters.

    As expected, the LD bubble quickly popped in this week's Redfield & Wilton but interestingly the five point drop didn't go mostly to Labour as I had expected but to Reform (among others).

    The England sub sample had Labour on 43%, the Conservatives on 29%, the Liberal Democrats on 12%, Reform on 8%, Green on 6% and others on 2%

    The 13.5% swing from Conservative to Labour compares with the 14.25% swing calculated from Opinium and on UNS would mean 170 Conservative losses before tactical voting.

    As always, a bucket of salt required and some interesting numbers among the sub samples.

    Today we've had Deltapoll with a solid 16-point lead for Labour nationally and More in Common who don't poll that often - the publicised headline figures of 42-31-13 are actually taking out the DKs, the WNVs and those who, in the likelihood to vote, were 1-6 so it's a different measurement to that used by other pollsters.

    Keeping in all those expressing a likelihood to vote (just excluding the DKs and the WNVs) the figures become 42-30-12. Men have Labour ahead by 10 and women have Labour ahead by 13.

    We've also just had Survation being issued which is 46-29-9 so a little disappointing for the LDs to be back into single figures.

    The four polls are all GB polls so the Conservative to Labour swings are as follows:

    Redfield & Wilton: 13%
    Deltapoll: 13.5%
    More in Common: 12%
    Survation: 15%

    Not a huge difference across them with the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing averaging out at 8%.

    That suggest on UNS Conservative losses of between 150 and 180 seats - of course that doesn't allow for tactical voting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    edited May 2023
    "More in Common? Who are they?"

    Lab 42 (-2)
    Con 31 (+1)
    LD 13 (+3)
    Grn 5 (-1)
    Ref 5 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Other 2 (=)

    2,017 GB adults, May 12-15
    Changes wrt April 6-11

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/voting-intention-may-2023/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    HYUFD said:

    Note the Tories are seeing almost as much leakage to RefUK as Labour and the LDs.

    So Sunak needs to protect his right flank as well as win back centrist swing voters

    I think Reform are only doing so badly at the moment because their leader is pretty much invisible. It would be a different story if Farage returned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
    God, that's awful. I once made the mistake of saying what I really thought of a poem in an English exam. The teacher agreed but did not give me much of a mark!
    I once got 3/40 in an essay for discussing why Hamlet procrastinated over killing Claudius.

    My teacher suggested that eight pages on 'Shakespeare wouldn't have had much of a plot without it, would he?' got a little tedious.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023

    "More in Common? Who are they?"

    Lab 42 (-2)
    Con 31 (+1)
    LD 13 (+3)
    Grn 5 (-1)
    Ref 5 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Other 2 (=)

    2,017 GB adults, May 12-15
    Changes wrt April 6-11

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/voting-intention-may-2023/

    Interesting rises in the Lib Dem vote here, apparently at the expense of Labour and the Greens.

    Labour need to keep more of an eye on their left, and particularly civil liberies flanks, I think, otherwise they may fall into the later New Labour's trap with the LD's from around 2005 onwards.Hate to say i told you so, but..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Yes Yes No
    "White people do not exist in a special state of sin or collective guilt," said @SuellaBraverman
    . Do you think a British home secretary should say this? Do you understand why she feels compelled to say this? Did you ever expect a British home secretary to say this?

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1658128617010786304

    More I don't see why she shouldn't be able to say it, and she has done much worse than that statement, taken by itself, does.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    Really? Then why did most Conservative MPs vote for Rishi not Truss twice last year. The simple fact of the matter is it was Tory and Labour members who elected Truss and Corbyn respectively to their leadership roles (in Truss' case including PM) not Tory MPs and not Labour MPs and indeed not the electorate as a whole
    (1) Sunak isn't a moderate. He's more moderate than Truss, which is not the same thing. Just as saying the Highways Agency are not quite as mind-blowingly incompetent as the DfE is not an endorsement of the former. The moderate in that election was Penny Mordaunt.

    (2) Truss is batshit crazy. With all his faults, Sunak isn't.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Listening to some of the language at the National Conservative event, I'm reminded of the dilemma I face on the issue of Freedom of Speech.

    As a "marxist liberal" or should that be "liberal marxist", I shouldn't have too many qualms but unfortunately I do. The notion of free speech, rather like EU membership, has only two credible positions - you're either for it or against it. As with our half-hearted rebate-obsessed membership of the EU, Freedom of Speech either means you're completely opposed and have no problem shutting down opinions with which you disagree or you're completely in favour which means accepting the right to offend and be offended.

    The Right to Offend is one of those tricky ones - we can all promise to be nice to each other but in the real world as soon as you bring in legislation or control to restrict anyone's right to freedom of speech, you're compromising that freedom for everyone.

    I don't like hate speech, I don't like speech which sets out deliberately to offend or provoke or incite or divide but I'm forced to accept these are aspects of the human condition and whether I like them or not, they exist and always will exist. I'm also reminded jaw-jaw is better than war-war and allowing the right to vent verbally is preferable to the wrong of acting physically.

    It's not comfortable but I suspect it's not meant to be - challenging those who wish to spread division and hate isn't easy because rational argument rarely works. They can be ignored - perhaps the first line of defence - and be left to shout into the darkness. That doesn't mean rational counter-argument can't and shouldn't be tried but in the expectation it won't have an impact.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2023
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    Really? Then why did most Conservative MPs vote for Rishi not Truss twice last year. The simple fact of the matter is it was Tory and Labour members who elected Truss and Corbyn respectively to their leadership roles (in Truss' case including PM) not Tory MPs and not Labour MPs and indeed not the electorate as a whole
    (1) Sunak isn't a moderate. He's more moderate than Truss, which is not the same thing. Just as saying the Highways Agency are not quite as mind-blowingly incompetent as the DfE is not an endorsement of the former. The moderate in that election was Penny Mordaunt.

    (2) Truss is batshit crazy. With all his faults, Sunak isn't.
    Ed Miliband wasn't a moderate either, so what? Indeed, he was elected by most Labour members and affiliated supporters NOT a majority of Labour MPs as well. Labour MPs preferred David Miliband who was a moderate. Indeed before Starmer you have to go back to Gordon Brown to find a Labour leader elected by most Labour MPs.

    Indeed before Truss the only Tory leader not elected by most Tory MPs was IDS, again who was elected by a majority of party members alone.

    (Tugendhat was the real moderate in the 2022 Tory leadership vote along with Hunt)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    Really? Then why did most Conservative MPs vote for Rishi not Truss twice last year. The simple fact of the matter is it was Tory and Labour members who elected Truss and Corbyn respectively to their leadership roles (in Truss' case including PM) not Tory MPs and not Labour MPs and indeed not the electorate as a whole
    (1) Sunak isn't a moderate. He's more moderate than Truss, which is not the same thing. Just as saying the Highways Agency are not quite as mind-blowingly incompetent as the DfE is not an endorsement of the former. The moderate in that election was Penny Mordaunt.

    (2) Truss is batshit crazy. With all his faults, Sunak isn't.
    And even Mordaunt isn't that centrist in the grand scheme of things. She became the candidate of the moderates in a "oh well, she'll have to do" way.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    "More in Common? Who are they?"

    Lab 42 (-2)
    Con 31 (+1)
    LD 13 (+3)
    Grn 5 (-1)
    Ref 5 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Other 2 (=)

    2,017 GB adults, May 12-15
    Changes wrt April 6-11

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/voting-intention-may-2023/

    Interesting rises in the Lib Dem vote here, apparently at the expense of Labour and the Greens.

    Labour need to keep more of an eye on their left, and particularly civil liberies flanks, I think, otherwise they may fall into the later New Labour's trap with the LD's from around 2005 onwards.Hate to say i told you so, but..
    Again, worth mentioning the headline figures (apart from excluding Don't Knows and Won't Votes) also exclude anyone whose likelihood to vote is less than 7/10 so this is as much a poll of the likely voters than the wider set (indeed it's 89% of the sample). The full sample is 42-30-12 which may be a more consistent representation.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
    God, that's awful. I once made the mistake of saying what I really thought of a poem in an English exam. The teacher agreed but did not give me much of a mark!
    I once got 3/40 in an essay for discussing why Hamlet procrastinated over killing Claudius.

    My teacher suggested that eight pages on 'Shakespeare wouldn't have had much of a plot without it, would he?' got a little tedious.
    Why write the essay at all when you could have feigned madness?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well to be fair, though, if one their main conclusions is that John Lennon is to blame for most of our problems, people can't be too surprised at the mockery.

    However, I agree that Starmer and the Lib Dems are talking about virtually nothing at the moment, which I'm not happy about. Although Cruella and others are somewhat facile, and also tending to the slightly paranoid and Trumpite in style, and in the way they raise certain issues, not every issue they have raised is irrelevant, and at least, as you say, they're talking about something.

    Very often, the issue is one that needs to be raised.

    The problem is that they - like Extinction Rebellion - turn every issue into an existential crisis. And therefore end up being laughed at.
    'Twas ever thus.

    This rather ghastly poem from 1992 was set in an English Literature exam series during Covid.

    https://vcpexams.in/g23-twt3-english-poetry-the-concerned-adolescent/
    God, that's awful. I once made the mistake of saying what I really thought of a poem in an English exam. The teacher agreed but did not give me much of a mark!
    I once got 3/40 in an essay for discussing why Hamlet procrastinated over killing Claudius.

    My teacher suggested that eight pages on 'Shakespeare wouldn't have had much of a plot without it, would he?' got a little tedious.
    Why write the essay at all when you could have feigned madness?
    Ophelia confusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    What makes you think the One Nation will capture the Party by 2025?
    I can't see it.
    After the 1997 defeat, it took about a decade to get to Cameron. I suspect it will take longer this time. For starters, there simply isn't the body count for a One Nation counter-revolution.
    Half of whom were purged by Boris, of course.
    As bad things got under Corbyn, at least the moderates in Labour continued to be a majority of the PLP. Not the case with the Tories.
    Really? Then why did most Conservative MPs vote for Rishi not Truss twice last year. The simple fact of the matter is it was Tory and Labour members who elected Truss and Corbyn respectively to their leadership roles (in Truss' case including PM) not Tory MPs and not Labour MPs and indeed not the electorate as a whole
    (1) Sunak isn't a moderate. He's more moderate than Truss, which is not the same thing. Just as saying the Highways Agency are not quite as mind-blowingly incompetent as the DfE is not an endorsement of the former. The moderate in that election was Penny Mordaunt.

    (2) Truss is batshit crazy. With all his faults, Sunak isn't.
    And even Mordaunt isn't that centrist in the grand scheme of things. She became the candidate of the moderates in a "oh well, she'll have to do" way.
    Mordaunt was moderate on Woke but still a Leaver and otherwise a Thatcherite
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    stodge said:

    It's not comfortable but I suspect it's not meant to be - challenging those who wish to spread division and hate isn't easy because rational argument rarely works. They can be ignored - perhaps the first line of defence - and be left to shout into the darkness. That doesn't mean rational counter-argument can't and shouldn't be tried but in the expectation it won't have an impact.

    Framing is important

    Nick Griffin was invited on Question Time once, and was essentially laughed off the stage.

    Nigel Fucking Farage was invited on time and again, and lauded for it, despite saying things that were at least as batshit crazy as Griffin.

    Why wasn't he ridiculed everywhere he went? Why did anyone take him seriously, ever?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm looking forward to the launch of the breakaway National Conservative Party in 2025 - presumably once the One Nation supporters re-capture the party, the Natcons will break away and form their own group absorbing Reform and forming their distinct social conservative movement.

    Not happening under FPTP, same as Labour never split between Corbynite and Blairite/social democrat wings in opposition.

    Only way it might happen is with PR
    I agree a schism is improbable but it did happen to Labour in 1981 and my suspicion is the leader after Sunak is going to face a "battle for the party's soul" between traditional Conservatives on one side and National Conservatives on the other.

    As we saw with Labour, over time and especially in Opposition, the language will become more vitriolic between the groups. Today for me marks the first step on a road toward a possible schism and IF the Conservatives come to the conclusion they can't win as National Conservatives, where is the road back to One Nation?
This discussion has been closed.