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The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Hard to feel sorry:

    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?t=Hl_E-dGNwfWIhI7FwGwyPw&s=19

    According to many reports, Russian 64th separated motorized brigade, responsible for mass rape, torture and executions in Bucha, promoted by Putin to a Guard brigade, was completely destroyed at Izyum, Kharkiv region. I will not publish my emotions here.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    According to both BBC and RTE, in Foyle it is PBP that's been excluded following count #10, and is currently being redistributed.

    SDLP is just -321 shy of quota, and would appear solid bet for 4th seat.

    Leaving 5th seat a toss-up between DUP and UUP with later now -349 behind former

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, your own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that you might possibly be at all inadequate.

    Johnson cares not a jot what happens to anyone else including tory councillors.
    Or even tory ex-councillors. Of whom I know a few; must write to them.

    But the golden rule of Alex de Pfeffel is what it has always been. If you have dealings with him, you will eventually regret it. It's just a matter of time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Alistair said:

    I see PB favourite Paul Joseph Watson has been caught airing some views that were all the rage in early 1940s Germany.

    What has he said? I used to follow him, but don't now. He is always good for a laugh provided you are not easily converted by cults (I did spell that correctly). I got introduced to him by Plato.
    He was caught saying he'd like to wipe Jews off the planet.

    His outlook is similar to that of his near namesake, Paul Joseph Goebbels.
    Ah the horse shoe of politics, where the far left and far right are much closer to each other, than to more mainstream and centrist viewpoints.
    I understand why people like this view, but it has a troubling lack of traction in reality.
    When I put my ideological hat on, I see the horseshoe very clearly. I'm a centrist and I see overlaps between people on the extremes in both directions, but when you study history you get a very different picture. To dive straight into the the headline-grabbing example, Fascism and Communism, you see two ideologies that were bitterly and violently in opposition.
    I know some people like to fall back on "sibling rivalry" as an explanation for why they went around murdering each other and ended up in a war of annihilation, but that doesn't stack up. To take the views of the proponents of both at face value is to see a an extremely bitter enmity on the most fundamental level. They very thing that makes humans more than just an animal, the way we organise ourselves into groups with a common agenda, are completely different under both ideologies. The unrelenting horizontality of Communism, where even the concept of private property is sacrificed under the guise of freeing the worker from exploitative relations of production. And with fascism, the unyielding verticality. The racial tribe is a unit that must work under the direction of a quasi-religious leader, the total submission of the individual to that authority, the preservation of some mythical purity.
    To put it another way, the denial of difference versus the paranoid fear of those who are different.

    These are fundamentally different world views.

    Part of this is muddied by the practice of authoritarianism. It's easy to see the similarity when you only think of the repressive, murderous nature of governments that are riddled with these toxic ideologies. The horrifying violence that came with both is in some ways intrinsic to them because both Communism and Fascism are unnatural and they need violence to preserve themselves. But the key point here is that authoritarianism is much wider than that again. Non-Communist non-Fascist regimes have also been that way. Indeed, probably a majority of states across the sweep of human history have been authoritarian in nature, the horror only mitigated by the level of technological advancement limiting how far and fast a psychopathic leader can stamp his authority on a people.

    Democracy is right because it is fundamentally more peaceful. Power is vested in the people and the government serves at their pleasure. Communism and Fascism occupy the space outside that circle, but so does everything else. Is there really a case for saying they are similar in many other ways? I don't see it. The horseshoe doesn't work as a model once you have taken account of democracy and non-democracy. Within that non-democratic space are some pretty wild creatures, and Communism and Fascism are two big, nasty, and quite separate beasts, not the near neighbours some people want to imagine them to be.
    Communists and fascists hate each other, of course, but they hate more moderate members of their own "side" far more. On a number of issues, you'll find a kind of Red/Brown alliance, at least online. Whereas, overall, 80% of left wing voters supported Macron to 20% in round 2, those who self-identified as far left divided almost evenly between the two.
    This is where the "horseshoe" theory DOES have some explanatory value. In that, when out of power extremists on either side can sometimes see some affinity with each other. There's some sense in aligning yourself with other extremists to topple the centre and then hope your faction can win out against the other nutters in the final.
    The trouble is, as per your figures, the extremes break much more heavily towards the centre. That it, for every 1 horseshoe-er, there are 4 people who will take the centrist instead.

    So it's fairer to modify my original take from "horseshoe = nah" to "horseshoe = minority"

    And to reiterate in reply to kle4, the mere fact that Communist and Fascist governments have used violent authoritarianism as a tool is important but slightly less relevant than you think because MOST governments across history have done that. We are in a blessed minority of relative peace.
    The fact that Communist and Fascist governments have managed to dispose of so many of each other's soldiers and innocent civilians is in part a function of technological advancement. We can efficiently kill lots of people. You can bet the Norman Conquest would have looked a lot more like 20th Century warfare if only they had 20th Century weapons. But do either the Communists or the Fascists claim William the Bastard as one of them? I doubt it.
    You'd be surprised. If anything, warfare was even more violent, when conducted with edged and pointed weapons, and when commanders used starvation as a weapon of war, than it is today.

    The Harrying of the North was absolutely brutal by any measure.
    Yes, that's the point. William was a psycho, and he would have killed more with better technology and transport. You can pick any number of authoritarians from history and say the same thing.
    The evil of Hitler and Stalin was profound, unambiguous and unforgivable in their own right, but we mustn't be fooled into thinking that they are in a category of their own. No, sadly there have been others in pre-industrial times who could have left a mark on history as them in the same order of magnitude. And pre-industrial means pre-fascist and pre-Communist too.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, your own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that you might possibly be at all inadequate.

    Johnson cares not a jot what happens to anyone else including tory councillors.
    Doubt he's even bestirred himself to send John0 a hand-written letter? OR invited him to Chequers?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    Hopefully for better reasons.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Well, there's a bunch of us all here who need to be acting as the government-in-waiting just in case the chance should arise some time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    According to both BBC and RTE, in Foyle it is PBP that's been excluded following count #10, and is currently being redistributed.

    SDLP is just -321 shy of quota, and would appear solid bet for 4th seat.

    Leaving 5th seat a toss-up between DUP and UUP with later now -349 behind former

    Yes, SDLP come fourth and (most likely) DUP fifth. Although some PBP votes, and SDLP surplus votes will transfer to the UUP, it will be nowhere near 349.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    MrEd said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    What’s the betting on first one out 😆
    @ydoethur’s cabinet is far too left-wind and middle class. Here’s mine:

    PM - me (well, someone has to do it)
    For Sec - Leon
    CoE - Bartholomew Robert’s
    Equalities / Home Sec - Cyclefree
    SOS for the Dominions, sorry devolved Parliaments - HYFUD
    Culture - Leon
    BEIS - RCS
    Health - Foxy (he is the most qualified) Defence - Topping (Dura would give in to Russia)
    Education - Malmesbury
    Deregulation - State_Go_Away
    DEFRA - Tlg86
    Justice - DavidL
    Okay PM. How do we make everyone feel respected and listened to?
    Appoint you as PB Minister Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary for Far-Outreach
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Any cabinet without you and kle4 in would be frankly dreadful.

    I didn't see anyone claiming head of state, though. I tried to suggest Garden Walker for that a few days ago but there were no takers. So, reluctantly, I shall wear the crown.

    Kneel, peasants.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,410
    Foxy said:

    Hard to feel sorry:

    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?t=Hl_E-dGNwfWIhI7FwGwyPw&s=19

    According to many reports, Russian 64th separated motorized brigade, responsible for mass rape, torture and executions in Bucha, promoted by Putin to a Guard brigade, was completely destroyed at Izyum, Kharkiv region. I will not publish my emotions here.

    Was it deliberately posted to the most dangerous area?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    Should the Tories, or should they not, be better employed reflecting on why they lost 20% of their councillors?
    A fit leader would.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Foxy said:

    Hard to feel sorry:

    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?t=Hl_E-dGNwfWIhI7FwGwyPw&s=19

    According to many reports, Russian 64th separated motorized brigade, responsible for mass rape, torture and executions in Bucha, promoted by Putin to a Guard brigade, was completely destroyed at Izyum, Kharkiv region. I will not publish my emotions here.

    Nobody mourns the wicked.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited May 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    I think that would be a disaster of a cabinet. Everyone on their own hobbyhorse, and no coherence.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    Wouldn't be Raynor though presumably.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    What’s the betting on first one out 😆
    @ydoethur’s cabinet is far too left-wind and middle class. Here’s mine:

    PM - me (well, someone has to do it)
    For Sec - Leon
    CoE - Bartholomew Robert’s
    Equalities / Home Sec - Cyclefree
    SOS for the Dominions, sorry devolved Parliaments - HYFUD
    Culture - Leon
    BEIS - RCS
    Health - Foxy (he is the most qualified) Defence - Topping (Dura would give in to Russia)
    Education - Malmesbury
    Deregulation - State_Go_Away
    DEFRA - Tlg86
    Justice - DavidL
    Okay PM. How do we make everyone feel respected and listened to?
    Sorry, missed that one

    Levelling up / Communities Sec / Northern Powerhouse - @Roger
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    According to both BBC and RTE, in Foyle it is PBP that's been excluded following count #10, and is currently being redistributed.

    SDLP is just -321 shy of quota, and would appear solid bet for 4th seat.

    Leaving 5th seat a toss-up between DUP and UUP with later now -349 behind former

    Yes.
    The PBP transfers will see the SDLP home. And it's probably likely now that the UUP will take the fifth seat with SDLP overs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039

    Foxy said:

    Hard to feel sorry:

    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1523021564765110272?t=Hl_E-dGNwfWIhI7FwGwyPw&s=19

    According to many reports, Russian 64th separated motorized brigade, responsible for mass rape, torture and executions in Bucha, promoted by Putin to a Guard brigade, was completely destroyed at Izyum, Kharkiv region. I will not publish my emotions here.

    Was it deliberately posted to the most dangerous area?
    That was certainly one theory doing the rounds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    Should the Tories, or should they not, be better employed reflecting on why they lost 20% of their councillors?
    A fit leader would.
    Absolutely and replacing Boris is a start

    However this does nor deflect from the mess Starmer finds himself in and entirely of his own making

    The news channels tonight are terrible for him and questioning his own truthfulness
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    edited May 2022
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Any cabinet without you and kle4 in would be frankly dreadful.

    I didn't see anyone claiming head of state, though. I tried to suggest Garden Walker for that a few days ago but there were no takers. So, reluctantly, I shall wear the crown.

    Kneel, peasants.
    Surely suggesting anyone other than OGH (with RCS as crown prince) should rule o'er PB, is ipso facto (& prima facie) lèse-majesté!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    Terrible way for his career to end and do not forget Rayner as she could also have real problems
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    The only alternative leader in the Shadow Cabinet who might do better than Starmer is Wes Streeting, the rest would probably do worse
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Any cabinet without you and kle4 in would be frankly dreadful.

    I didn't see anyone claiming head of state, though. I tried to suggest Garden Walker for that a few days ago but there were no takers. So, reluctantly, I shall wear the crown.

    Kneel, peasants.
    Surely suggesting anyone other than OGH (with RCS as crown prince) should rule o'er PB, is ipso facto (& prima facie) lèse-majesté!
    Flattered by the offer, but I’m afraid my first act would be to fire several posters on here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, your own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that you might possibly be at all inadequate.

    Johnson cares not a jot what happens to anyone else including tory councillors.
    Or even tory ex-councillors. Of whom I know a few; must write to them.

    But the golden rule of Alex de Pfeffel is what it has always been. If you have dealings with him, you will eventually regret it. It's just a matter of time.
    I wonder how many of these ex-councillors were only a few months ago at conference whooping and cheering with joy at the sight of their beloved leader?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    And the danger is that the various witches around the cauldron have different aims. Some want to weaken Starmer, whilst leaving him in place. Some want to bring down Starmer. Some want to bring down Starmer and Johnson. Some don't care, as long as there is talkability.

    There is a dabbling with forces that aren't properly understood. This could easily end badly.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    http://marchonfilm.com/call-sheets/
    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I don't see how you can organise it otherwise. Here is an example of a call sheet. There would be no way of organising 30 or 40 people without one. Everyone gets a print off and they're usually several pasges long

    http://marchonfilm.com/call-sheets/

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
    I have not followed this scrupulously, not least because the main sources seem to have been partisan shit-stirrers, but it certainly seems true that Keir can’t get his story straight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, your own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that you might possibly be at all inadequate.

    Johnson cares not a jot what happens to anyone else including tory councillors.
    Or even tory ex-councillors. Of whom I know a few; must write to them.

    But the golden rule of Alex de Pfeffel is what it has always been. If you have dealings with him, you will eventually regret it. It's just a matter of time.
    I wonder how many of these ex-councillors were only a few months ago at conference whooping and cheering with joy at the sight of their beloved leader?
    The roar of the greasepaint, the smell of the crowd!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    I think that would be a disaster of a cabinet. Everyone on their own hobbyhorse, and no coherence.
    It's the job of the PM to ensure that. What's needed is a true leader. Someone inspiring and dynamic, with grand vision and cutting insight, a keen analytical intellect and inherent charisma to bring people together and get the most out of them, selfless and humble, but confident and compelling.

    Admittedly we might be short on candidates.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Any cabinet without you and kle4 in would be frankly dreadful.

    I didn't see anyone claiming head of state, though. I tried to suggest Garden Walker for that a few days ago but there were no takers. So, reluctantly, I shall wear the crown.

    Kneel, peasants.
    Surely suggesting anyone other than OGH (with RCS as crown prince) should rule o'er PB, is ipso facto (& prima facie) lèse-majesté!
    Flattered by the offer, but I’m afraid my first act would be to fire several posters on here.
    A constitutional crisis. Best viewed from New York.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    MaxPB said:

    The source added: “In my view, it was an event that is akin to when the prime minister and Rishi Sunak were ambushed by a birthday cake.”

    From The Times. By the end of Sunday the Labour line will be "ambushed by curry" just as predicted by yours truly yesterday morning.

    Between the two of them now they just need to have been ambushed by a starter.
    Ed Davey next up with the ambushed by starter?
    Ed is safe. Social gatherings in telephone boxes were exempt.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2022
    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
    Yes and Trump is President after winning the election. Your insight is as ever invaluable. Fancy a £100 bet he isn't prosecuted?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Roger said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
    Yes and Trump is President after winning the election. Your insight is as ever invaluable
    Harsh, but fair
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, your own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that you might possibly be at all inadequate.

    Johnson cares not a jot what happens to anyone else including tory councillors.
    Or even tory ex-councillors. Of whom I know a few; must write to them.

    But the golden rule of Alex de Pfeffel is what it has always been. If you have dealings with him, you will eventually regret it. It's just a matter of time.
    I wonder how many of these ex-councillors were only a few months ago at conference whooping and cheering with joy at the sight of their beloved leader?
    I honestly have no clue who goes to conferences - those councillors I've met don't seem keen to have done it more than once as an obligation, like it was a less fulfulling kind of Hajj.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.

    I think he’ll be gone within a week . Starmer had things Johnson lacked , integrity and principles . So even though people accused him of being dull , that could have been a winner , I might be dull but I’m honest . This seems shot to pieces even if he doesn’t receive a FPN. Unless Johnson receives several more FPNs and a trashing from Gray and the Tories stick with him then it’s going to be a huge struggle for Labour .
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701

    Sean_F said:

    People before Profit has got in in Foyle at the expense of the DUP.

    How did that happen, the UUP and DUP were well above a quota between them,
    PBP not confirmed on SKY or BBC websites
    PBP have been eliminated - their preferences are currently being counted to see if UUP or DUP get the last seat - SDLP are far enough ahead that it is impossible for both UUP and DUP to catch them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    Some want to pin this on conservatives and the press , but a pattern is emerging that this may be from disaffected labourites

    Remember, it was an independent Durham councillor who had lost his mother who made the formal complaint to Durham Police which resulted in this detective led investigation, and tonight Diane Abbott suggest Starmer will need to resign if he receives a FPN

    Furthermore 2 students who were present and took a video want to speak to the police, I doubt they would be conservative students at that event

    It may not be a left conspiracy but I wouldn't rule it out

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited May 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    Should the Tories, or should they not, be better employed reflecting on why they lost 20% of their councillors?
    A fit leader would.
    Absolutely and replacing Boris is a start

    However this does nor deflect from the mess Starmer finds himself in and entirely of his own making

    The news channels tonight are terrible for him and questioning his own truthfulness
    I carry no candle for SKS. I think he's a nice enough bloke. Would be a lovely neighbour. Lend you a tenner or a hoover if yours broke.
    Useless politician though.
    When you lose 1 in 5 councillors Occam's Razor suggests the issue might be with you. Not who your opponent is.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    edited May 2022

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MaxPB said:

    The source added: “In my view, it was an event that is akin to when the prime minister and Rishi Sunak were ambushed by a birthday cake.”

    From The Times. By the end of Sunday the Labour line will be "ambushed by curry" just as predicted by yours truly yesterday morning.

    Between the two of them now they just need to have been ambushed by a starter.
    Ed Davey next up with the ambushed by starter?
    Ed is safe. Social gatherings in telephone boxes were exempt.
    What a wonderful juncture to relive Fridays highlights 😝

    image

    image
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The independent councilor Big G keeps promoting breathlessly is one of those “independent” conservative types.

    Big G as I reminded you last night, “Independent” doesn’t mean independent.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    Any cabinet without you and kle4 in would be frankly dreadful.

    I didn't see anyone claiming head of state, though. I tried to suggest Garden Walker for that a few days ago but there were no takers. So, reluctantly, I shall wear the crown.

    Kneel, peasants.
    Surely suggesting anyone other than OGH (with RCS as crown prince) should rule o'er PB, is ipso facto (& prima facie) lèse-majesté!
    Flattered by the offer, but I’m afraid my first act would be to fire several posters on here.
    You would make excellent PB Ambassador to United Nations, if only because it's just an Uber away for you (see OGH for reimbursement - good luck!)
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    Some want to pin this on conservatives and the press , but a pattern is emerging that this may be from disaffected labourites

    Remember, it was an independent Durham councillor who had lost his mother who made the formal complaint to Durham Police which resulted in this detective led investigation, and tonight Diane Abbott suggest Starmer will need to resign if he receives a FPN

    Furthermore 2 students who were present and took a video want to speak to the police, I doubt they would be conservative students at that event

    It may not be a left conspiracy but I wouldn't rule it out

    The fact that this is plausible is really a sign of the excellent work Starmer has done at marginalising he extremists within Labour. The Conservatives could do with a Starmer of their own.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    nico679 said:

    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.

    I think he’ll be gone within a week . Starmer had things Johnson lacked , integrity and principles . So even though people accused him of being dull , that could have been a winner , I might be dull but I’m honest . This seems shot to pieces even if he doesn’t receive a FPN. Unless Johnson receives several more FPNs and a trashing from Gray and the Tories stick with him then it’s going to be a huge struggle for Labour .
    Starmer has played the politics terribly. Everybody else was piling on Boris (rightly so), so he could he left it to everybody else. Also unless you never left your house for past 2 years it is more than likely you probably have broken the rules at some point.

    He could have easily played it as the rules were confusing and ever changing, not surprising can find a breach. However, the PM went much further, he cultivated a culture of rampant disregard for them.

    Such a take isolates you against the sort of issue he has run into.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002

    The independent councilor Big G keeps promoting breathlessly is one of those “independent” conservative types.

    Big G as I reminded you last night, “Independent” doesn’t mean independent.

    Link please

    Unfortunately you have been on the wrong side of this debate, even trying to shut it down, and your comment you would ban some posters really says if all about you
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Big G is now speculating this is not a right wing put up job, despite the story surfacing in those Trotsky organs the Mail, and (I think) Guido Fawkes.

    Certainly tho it is now being fed by left wing opponents of Keir.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    MaxPB said:

    The source added: “In my view, it was an event that is akin to when the prime minister and Rishi Sunak were ambushed by a birthday cake.”

    From The Times. By the end of Sunday the Labour line will be "ambushed by curry" just as predicted by yours truly yesterday morning.

    In USA phrase "ambushed by curry" generally has whole different meaning . . .
    Starmer is fucked by Curry In the UK its what happened to John Major I think
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    The only way you could make this worse would be by adding me
    Yeah. Feel honoured no-one suggested me.
    PB is a discerning quality site after all.
    I think that would be a disaster of a cabinet. Everyone on their own hobbyhorse, and no coherence.
    It's the job of the PM to ensure that. What's needed is a true leader. Someone inspiring and dynamic, with grand vision and cutting insight, a keen analytical intellect and inherent charisma to bring people together and get the most out of them, selfless and humble, but confident and compelling.

    Admittedly we might be short on candidates.
    Well, I decided to see what GPT-3 would suggest. So I took your initial paragraph and added:

    The obvious candidate is Boris Johnson. He has all those qualities in abundance. But he is also too divisive for his own good. The best way to unify the country would be to appoint someone who is acceptable to everyone, but it's difficult to think of anyone more universally disliked than Mr Johnson. It was only when he was appointed Foreign Secretary that I began to see him as anything other than a buffoon. In fact, if there were an award for the most embarrassing public figure in Britain at the moment, he'd have my vote hands down.
    In terms of inspirational leadership, though, it doesn't get much better than David Cameron. His achievements are astonishing: he's brought us back from the brink; rescued our economy; and saved the NHS from ruin. He's been a great friend to Europe, and played a key role in negotiating the UK's membership of the EU.
    And yet despite this, I fear that we'll never forgive him for giving us Brexit. No matter how much progress he makes on the economy, or how many millions of pounds he saves the NHS, we will always feel let down by his decision to call the referendum in the first place. We're still furious about it now. And while I'm sure he meant well, I can't help feeling that he could have done something else instead. Maybe he should have called the election and given us another five years of stability.
    But no, he had to go and do what he did. Now we've got Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, and it feels like everything is falling apart.
    ***
    I mean, look at the state of things! When I woke up this morning, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry. If you're reading this, then it's probably because you want to know why I've taken such drastic action. You might even wonder whether I really am a terrorist.
    Well, I'm not. Not exactly. I don't believe in violence and I certainly wouldn't dream of hurting innocent civilians. All I wanted to do was to make a point. I just thought that if enough people knew what was happening, they might start to care. So here's the story of what happened yesterday…
    ***
    It started off so well. My name is Nicola Smith. I work in the City. I'm thirty-five years old and single.


    The italicised text is what GPT-3 predicted.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    nico679 said:

    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.

    I think he’ll be gone within a week . Starmer had things Johnson lacked , integrity and principles . So even though people accused him of being dull , that could have been a winner , I might be dull but I’m honest . This seems shot to pieces even if he doesn’t receive a FPN. Unless Johnson receives several more FPNs and a trashing from Gray and the Tories stick with him then it’s going to be a huge struggle for Labour .
    Starmer has played the politics terribly. Everybody else was piling on Boris (rightly so), so he could he left it to everybody else. Also unless you never left your house for past 2 years it is more than likely you probably have broken the rules at some point.

    He could have easily played it as the rules were confusing and ever changing, not surprising can find a breach. However, the PM went much further, he cultivated a culture of rampant disregard for them.

    Such a take isolates you against the sort of issue he has run into.
    I genuinely think he never thought he had broken any rules in Durham and so thought he had nothing to worry about . He surely wouldn’t be that stupid to go after Johnson if he thought he could get caught .
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Is it not early, West Coast o’clock, to have had one too many?

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    MaxPB said:

    The source added: “In my view, it was an event that is akin to when the prime minister and Rishi Sunak were ambushed by a birthday cake.”

    From The Times. By the end of Sunday the Labour line will be "ambushed by curry" just as predicted by yours truly yesterday morning.

    In USA phrase "ambushed by curry" generally has whole different meaning . . .
    Starmer is fucked by Curry In the UK its what happened to John Major I think
    Was there any suggestion of pegging?
    Do Durham Police have video or photos?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Applicant said:

    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.

    I disagree (and agree with Mike). The only party that would support the Conservatives on the Friday evening following the next GE is the DUP.

    If CON+DUP > needed majority (here, SF seats will matter, but this is likely to be 322 or so) then the Conservatives can stay in power.
    If they are short, however much short, how the heck do they really get over the line? Say they have 310 and the the DUP have somehow managed 9. This isn't enough for a majority, so who do the Conservatives turn to?

    Labour - ??! A grand coalition? Never happening unless the UK is at war with Russia (and if it somehow is, I think seat totals won't really matter within a few hours of war breaking out).
    SNP - Don't make me laugh. Sturgeon (and lesserly Salmond) have spent twenty years dissing the Tories. Even if the Conservatives offered IndyRef2 with the question being "Should Scotland leave the Union? YES PLEASE or NO I DON'T WANT TO STAY" I think the SNP would decline. No way is the SNP even going to offer C&S.
    Liberal Democrats - yeah yeah. Ed Davey was in the Lib-Con coalition - big deal. If the Conservatives lose 55 seats in 2024, just like Brown in 2010, they'll be seen as the losers. Davey won't want to prop them up, and his own party's experience of 2010-2015 will still weigh on their minds. They won't help, not even C&S.
    After that? Who's left?
    Plaid - not happening for much the same reasons as the SNP.
    Greens - don't make me laugh.
    SDLP, the Alliance or Sinn Fein - Not happening as they'll just follow their respective GB party's lead.
    The UUP/Reform/UKIP aren't likely to win any seats and I can't see any independent winning who'd then jump in bed with the Conservatives.

    The Conservatives would face the same problem in this 2024 situation as Labour faced in 2010. Too long in power, too tired, too much seen as a thing of the past.

    The Conservatives need to win 314 or more in 2024. Anything less and they're out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Is it not early, West Coast o’clock, to have had one too many?

    image
    https://novelai.net

    Knock yourself out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    Applicant said:

    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.

    I disagree (and agree with Mike). The only party that would support the Conservatives on the Friday evening following the next GE is the DUP.

    If CON+DUP > needed majority (here, SF seats will matter, but this is likely to be 322 or so) then the Conservatives can stay in power.
    If they are short, however much short, how the heck do they really get over the line? Say they have 310 and the the DUP have somehow managed 9. This isn't enough for a majority, so who do the Conservatives turn to?

    Labour - ??! A grand coalition? Never happening unless the UK is at war with Russia (and if it somehow is, I think seat totals won't really matter within a few hours of war breaking out).
    SNP - Don't make me laugh. Sturgeon (and lesserly Salmond) have spent twenty years dissing the Tories. Even if the Conservatives offered IndyRef2 with the question being "Should Scotland leave the Union? YES PLEASE or NO I DON'T WANT TO STAY" I think the SNP would decline. No way is the SNP even going to offer C&S.
    Liberal Democrats - yeah yeah. Ed Davey was in the Lib-Con coalition - big deal. If the Conservatives lose 55 seats in 2024, just like Brown in 2010, they'll be seen as the losers. Davey won't want to prop them up, and his own party's experience of 2010-2015 will still weigh on their minds. They won't help, not even C&S.
    After that? Who's left?
    Plaid - not happening for much the same reasons as the SNP.
    Greens - don't make me laugh.
    SDLP, the Alliance or Sinn Fein - Not happening as they'll just follow their respective GB party's lead.
    The UUP/Reform/UKIP aren't likely to win any seats and I can't see any independent winning who'd then jump in bed with the Conservatives.

    The Conservatives would face the same problem in this 2024 situation as Labour faced in 2010. Too long in power, too tired, too much seen as a thing of the past.

    The Conservatives need to win 314 or more in 2024. Anything less and they're out.
    Yep
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    Some Ukrainians were actively telling people not to donate to some of the big name international charities that have just been using it as a fundraising opportunity. Donating directly to the Ukrainian government seems like a more effective way of making a difference.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    SKS fans won't accept he is shit and that the Tories will sail to another victory under him.

    The only people with a purity test is Starmer and co. He has spent more time attacking Socialists for purely factional reasons than attacking the Tories.

    Suck it up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Applicant said:

    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.

    I disagree (and agree with Mike). The only party that would support the Conservatives on the Friday evening following the next GE is the DUP.

    If CON+DUP > needed majority (here, SF seats will matter, but this is likely to be 322 or so) then the Conservatives can stay in power.
    If they are short, however much short, how the heck do they really get over the line? Say they have 310 and the the DUP have somehow managed 9. This isn't enough for a majority, so who do the Conservatives turn to?

    Labour - ??! A grand coalition? Never happening unless the UK is at war with Russia (and if it somehow is, I think seat totals won't really matter within a few hours of war breaking out).
    SNP - Don't make me laugh. Sturgeon (and lesserly Salmond) have spent twenty years dissing the Tories. Even if the Conservatives offered IndyRef2 with the question being "Should Scotland leave the Union? YES PLEASE or NO I DON'T WANT TO STAY" I think the SNP would decline. No way is the SNP even going to offer C&S.
    Liberal Democrats - yeah yeah. Ed Davey was in the Lib-Con coalition - big deal. If the Conservatives lose 55 seats in 2024, just like Brown in 2010, they'll be seen as the losers. Davey won't want to prop them up, and his own party's experience of 2010-2015 will still weigh on their minds. They won't help, not even C&S.
    After that? Who's left?
    Plaid - not happening for much the same reasons as the SNP.
    Greens - don't make me laugh.
    SDLP, the Alliance or Sinn Fein - Not happening as they'll just follow their respective GB party's lead.
    The UUP/Reform/UKIP aren't likely to win any seats and I can't see any independent winning who'd then jump in bed with the Conservatives.

    The Conservatives would face the same problem in this 2024 situation as Labour faced in 2010. Too long in power, too tired, too much seen as a thing of the past.

    The Conservatives need to win 314 or more in 2024. Anything less and they're out.
    I think there are three options for a hung parliament:

    (1) Con + DUP > 314 - minority Conservative government
    (2) Lab + LD (+G+SDLP+Alliance) > Con + DUP - A LibLab coalition (or C&S) government (with the SNP having abstained on the Queens Speech)
    (3) Lab + LD (+G+SDLP+Alliance) < Con + DUP - Another election
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    Big G is now speculating this is not a right wing put up job, despite the story surfacing in those Trotsky organs the Mail, and (I think) Guido Fawkes.

    Certainly tho it is now being fed by left wing opponents of Keir.

    Going back to a question I posed earlier, "What do you want to happen?"

    If the answer is "a fair investigation of the facts of this incident", then the right response is to let Durham police continue their work without the distraction or prejudgement of tonight's headlines.

    What does The Mail want to happen?

    What does Diane Abbott want to happen?

    What does the student who filmed the events from outside(?) the hotel want to happen?

    What does the Independent Councillor (and on PB, I'm sure we all know that even Independent Councillors have some sort of political steer) want to happen?

    What does CCHQ want to happen?

    They don't all want the same thing- so what will happen? And then what happens next?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. Now I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moment's reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls and falls.
    Because it can't actually be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    I think three a decent chance of a Tory Gvt after the next election. I also think that if so, the time after will be 97 all over again. That’s just political gravity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.

    I think he’ll be gone within a week . Starmer had things Johnson lacked , integrity and principles . So even though people accused him of being dull , that could have been a winner , I might be dull but I’m honest . This seems shot to pieces even if he doesn’t receive a FPN. Unless Johnson receives several more FPNs and a trashing from Gray and the Tories stick with him then it’s going to be a huge struggle for Labour .
    Starmer has played the politics terribly. Everybody else was piling on Boris (rightly so), so he could he left it to everybody else. Also unless you never left your house for past 2 years it is more than likely you probably have broken the rules at some point.

    He could have easily played it as the rules were confusing and ever changing, not surprising can find a breach. However, the PM went much further, he cultivated a culture of rampant disregard for them.

    Such a take isolates you against the sort of issue he has run into.
    I genuinely think he never thought he had broken any rules in Durham and so thought he had nothing to worry about . He surely wouldn’t be that stupid to go after Johnson if he thought he could get caught .
    He might well of thought that (although the Sunday Times claims dispute this), but as i say the chances are we all did at some and as a high profile individual plus everybody has a camera phone i would best to give yourself an out. And if he had, he would be fine as he can still give it the dull but honest. Now he is in a mess.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    I thought Starmer would be fine, now we have Roger saying no problem at all because its like that on films sets.....Starmer now gone by the summer odds on.

    I think he’ll be gone within a week . Starmer had things Johnson lacked , integrity and principles . So even though people accused him of being dull , that could have been a winner , I might be dull but I’m honest . This seems shot to pieces even if he doesn’t receive a FPN. Unless Johnson receives several more FPNs and a trashing from Gray and the Tories stick with him then it’s going to be a huge struggle for Labour .
    Starmer has played the politics terribly. Everybody else was piling on Boris (rightly so), so he could he left it to everybody else. Also unless you never left your house for past 2 years it is more than likely you probably have broken the rules at some point.

    He could have easily played it as the rules were confusing and ever changing, not surprising can find a breach. However, the PM went much further, he cultivated a culture of rampant disregard for them.

    Such a take isolates you against the sort of issue he has run into.
    I genuinely think he never thought he had broken any rules in Durham and so thought he had nothing to worry about . He surely wouldn’t be that stupid to go after Johnson if he thought he could get caught .
    If we are all being honest the rules were ridiculous and full of ambiguity so much so I expect most of us could have received a FPN

    For the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party to end their careers on a FPN when you think about it is truly absurd and don't forget Sturgeon and Drakeford both admitted breaches of covid restrictions

    It is to be hoped we never go down this route again
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
    Yes and Trump is President after winning the election. Your insight is as ever invaluable
    Harsh, but fair
    Well, if you want to listen to Roger when it comes to betting predictions…
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    SKS fans won't accept he is shit and that the Tories will sail to another victory under him.

    The only people with a purity test is Starmer and co. He has spent more time attacking Socialists for purely factional reasons than attacking the Tories.

    Suck it up.
    No not purely factional reasons, the reason he has been attacking socialists is to convince ex-LAB voters to vote for him, trying to get a Militant or Clause Four moment. I think he didn't succeed in that, but he didn't have to, at least not up to now, thanks to the clown car government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Was that written sober? Just asking.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Ukraine has already got a rail bridge that was blown up by the Russians near Bucha running again.

    https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1522976325706821632
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Maybe so, and yet Starmer has made it very easy for them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Roger said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris Mason of BBC says it is very, very serious for Starmer.

    Starmer won't go, the Tories obviously won't push for it as if he went the pressure on Boris could be untenable
    But if he did, and Boris had to go, too, that would be a win/win.
    Not really.

    If Johnson goes, the Conservatives have a significant problem- nobody else can plausibly hold the current Conservative coalition together and be PM. Go on- who takes over? Truss? Wallace? Hunt?

    The problem exists for Labour as well, but it's much less stark, because they are choosing a LotO. And Starmer hasn't torched any potential sucessors/rivals. Besides-let's be honest, Starmer was chosen to lose with dignity in 2024, not to be the next PM. Starmer's fall helps Labour by accelerating Project Rebuild. And all the evidence is that Labour have learnt the lesson of not letting a lefty populist within a sniff of the final round. So it's not even a win for followers of the Cult of St Jeremy The Martyr.
    Are we sure the party has got itself totally bomb proof from a populist Corbynite re-run?
    Yes. In the unlikely event of Starmer going, he will be replaced by someone better. Like when Blair took over from Smith.
    I really can't see him going.
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    Because a pre-arranged curry and booze after work would have been breaking the law at that point in time. A stupid law, but one which he supported and voted in favour of.

    I can't believe this could be how it ends for Starmer. The Mail ploughing a lone furrow on a post work beer and suddenly they could have a huge scalp.
    I don't know how it works for campaign staff but on film shoots you are obliged to eat before nine or you pay for an extra day and you are still obliged to feed the crew. I've never seen it done another way. It's all down on the call sheet.
    Not even close to the same as a film crew. Any staff will be on salary and anyone else is a volunteer.
    I’ve never been on a campaign.

    But my assumption was that this is effectively the same as a late night IT shift, ie you kind of have to bring in the pizza (or curry) as part of the deal.

    I have never seen this as a “party”, but effectively part of the work itself.

    But I now await full clarity.
    Keir is at best incompetent for letting this story roll on.
    SKS knows he is screwed and is now looking around for any old desperate excuse. He’s fucked.
    Yes and Trump is President after winning the election. Your insight is as ever invaluable. Fancy a £100 bet he isn't prosecuted?
    Ah Roger, you shouldn’t let your emotions get the better of you. Especially when it comes to predictions, your track record is, mmm, interesting.

    Anyway, I won’t take the bet primarily because of the way you worded it. If SKS gets a FPN, he won’t be prosecuted, he’ll just be issued with a notice. So why should I give you £100 on a sleight of wording? My view is SKS will get a FPN, not he will be sent to prison.

    As you well know when it comes to betting Roger, you should always looking at the wording of the betting conditions
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    Rob, have you seen the you.com search engine where they have a code search subsection which hooks into i believe copilot (which was built on GPT3 tech) to write code for you query on the fly?

    So rather than search and you get your stackoverflow results, you get dynamic functions returned.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    SKS fans won't accept he is shit and that the Tories will sail to another victory under him.

    The only people with a purity test is Starmer and co. He has spent more time attacking Socialists for purely factional reasons than attacking the Tories.

    Suck it up.
    When you say "another" do you mean like last time, when the Tories beat Corbyn?
    Or perhaps the time before that, when... oh, same.

    You know, I really don't mind the fact that you don't like Starmer and want to get rid of him, that's fair comment. But it's the idea that seems to underpin it, that if only the left had a shot... you did. You had a shot in 2019 and 2017 too. It didn't go well. You might enjoy being the political equivalent of a gimp-mask-wearing-sub, but don't expect other Labour people to get off on repeated humiliation. How many times do you need to lose before you're satisfied?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
    I've no idea what the legalities of donating to foreign governments is, but I'd dispute that the law would need to be the same. Just as our government imposes sanctions on some nations which prohibit us from doing various things with them, they could presumably make laws saying it was ok to donate to some nations for their defence etc but not acceptable to donate to others.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Starmer is in a street fight, this is just a small taste of what the 2024 campaign will look like and he's already wobbling badly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Crickey...

    Ian Goodfellow, Apple’s director of machine learning, is leaving the company due to its return to work policy. In a note to staff, he said “I believe strongly that more flexibility would have been the best policy for my team.” He was likely the company’s most cited ML expert.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
    I think that, because they are a government, legally it is okay. After all, you could buy Ukrainian government bonds completely legally.

    Where it gets a bit more uncertain legally is providing funding to some of the volunteer battalions in Ukraine.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
    I've no idea what the legalities of donating to foreign governments is, but I'd dispute that the law would need to be the same. Just as our government imposes sanctions on some nations which prohibit us from doing various things with them, they could presumably make laws saying it was ok to donate to some nations for their defence etc but not acceptable to donate to others.
    Disagree with respect to funding (knowingly) for military purposes just because what I think is a 100% just cause might be someone else’s idea of satan. My view would be to prevent it all, and work on the premise that this is what charities and the UN are for.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Is it not early, West Coast o’clock, to have had one too many?

    image
    https://novelai.net

    Knock yourself out.
    That’s Cool 😘
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Crickey...

    Ian Goodfellow, Apple’s director of machine learning, is leaving the company due to its return to work policy. In a note to staff, he said “I believe strongly that more flexibility would have been the best policy for my team.” He was likely the company’s most cited ML expert.

    He’s seen the future, and he and I concur.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
    I think that, because they are a government, legally it is okay. After all, you could buy Ukrainian government bonds completely legally.

    Where it gets a bit more uncertain legally is providing funding to some of the volunteer battalions in Ukraine.
    Good point.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is in a street fight, this is just a small taste of what the 2024 campaign will look like and he's already wobbling badly.

    Reminds me of the Spitting Image take on him....Foxman...

    https://youtu.be/_stiz4aWiaQ
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    So... @Gary_Burton
    Any ideas?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2022
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    I’ve seen these and wondered about the legal implications. We all support Ukraine and want them to have a strong military, but suppose it was Israel, or Saudi Arabia. The law and its consequences need to be the same.
    I've no idea what the legalities of donating to foreign governments is, but I'd dispute that the law would need to be the same. Just as our government imposes sanctions on some nations which prohibit us from doing various things with them, they could presumably make laws saying it was ok to donate to some nations for their defence etc but not acceptable to donate to others.
    Disagree with respect to funding (knowingly) for military purposes just because what I think is a 100% just cause might be someone else’s idea of satan. My view would be to prevent it all, and work on the premise that this is what charities and the UN are for.
    Yes, but that's you thinking it should not be allowed, which is a fair enough opinion, but which is separate to 'the law and its consequences need to be the same' point, which suggests its inherent that it would be wrong to treat nations differently for this purpose, when we already treat nations differently for these purposes. That's why we don't have identical relations with all nations.

    I can think of some weird situations if some nations started crowdfunding their military efforts though (though given cost of hardware I doubt it would help much).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    If we are all being honest the rules were ridiculous and full of ambiguity so much so I expect most of us could have received a FPN

    For the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party to end their careers on a FPN when you think about it is truly absurd and don't forget Sturgeon and Drakeford both admitted breaches of covid restrictions

    It is to be hoped we never go down this route again

    I fed that into the AI and it came back with this:

    ...but in the event that we do I would like to suggest that the best way forward might not be for politicians to admit guilt and receive a FPN but rather for them to take steps to make amends for past mistakes by working with the people who they've wronged
    By doing so I believe that the public will forgive them and any potential punishment can be avoided which will allow us to start afresh
    The politicians and civil servants involved should also be granted immunity from prosecution as it would appear that they are unable to manage themselves or control their behaviour so why punish others
    I'm a bit wary of my own proposal as I feel that it may put me on a collision course with the Crown Prosecution Service who seem determined to prosecute me regardless of the evidence that I provide
    Not to mention that I am still awaiting sentencing after being convicted of murder last year
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
    I really have no idea what you mean
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Was that written sober? Just asking.....
    That was written by GPT-3.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is in a street fight, this is just a small taste of what the 2024 campaign will look like and he's already wobbling badly.

    Reminds me of the Spitting Image take on him....Foxman...

    https://youtu.be/_stiz4aWiaQ
    I was thinking of that just now too. In fact in every show Spitting Image portrayed Starmer and cabinet as smarmy ineffectual goody two shoes - so “most boring superhero in the marvel universe” was a great joke. 😆
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    If we are all being honest the rules were ridiculous and full of ambiguity so much so I expect most of us could have received a FPN

    For the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party to end their careers on a FPN when you think about it is truly absurd and don't forget Sturgeon and Drakeford both admitted breaches of covid restrictions

    It is to be hoped we never go down this route again

    I fed that into the AI and it came back with this:

    ...but in the event that we do I would like to suggest that the best way forward might not be for politicians to admit guilt and receive a FPN but rather for them to take steps to make amends for past mistakes by working with the people who they've wronged
    By doing so I believe that the public will forgive them and any potential punishment can be avoided which will allow us to start afresh
    The politicians and civil servants involved should also be granted immunity from prosecution as it would appear that they are unable to manage themselves or control their behaviour so why punish others
    I'm a bit wary of my own proposal as I feel that it may put me on a collision course with the Crown Prosecution Service who seem determined to prosecute me regardless of the evidence that I provide
    Not to mention that I am still awaiting sentencing after being convicted of murder last year
    That's utterly brilliant - especially the wonderful non sequitur of the last line.
This discussion has been closed.