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  MJW Posts: 1,334

  January 2019

  I think people always seem to forget quite what a stumbling block for Labour Scotland is. Seven of their top 20 target seats are SNP held plus more than 20 of the 70 odd they need to get a majority. Unlike in England, where although Corbyn is personally unpopular, there's an anti-Tory/anti-Brexit/need for change dynamic that favours Labour in parts of the country should the Tories drop some voters by screwing up Brexit and staunch remainers hold their noses, Scotland looks to be going the other way. The SNP have their own appeal as a party of radical change, are pro-EU, while Corbyn and his man Richard Leonard are some of the least likely to draw centrist and Tory voters into an anti-SNP coalition. Plus, of course Corbyn's Islingtonian declarative socialism goes down far less well north of the border. Without those seats (and lose some Lab ones too), you're looking at the biggest post-45 swing other than 1997 to get a majority and you're looking at much tougher places Brexit-wise to get over the largest party line.

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