Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sunak back again as favourite in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    Quite the opposite. The US, UK and allies working closely together is not in Putin's interests.
    Yes, this is the opposite of what he wants. If the Anglosphere really unites, militarily, that is a strong deterrent to him and China. He can rely on the EU to be pathetically divided and inert. Not this new alliance.
    We need to get the Canadians involved once Trudeau is gone, though.

    We can live without New Zealand, frankly.
    Why "once Trudeau is gone"?
    Because the Conservatives want to be in, while Trudeau can't be bothered.
    "Can't be bothered"? Yesterday everyone was saying Canada wasn't invited.
    You only invite someone to something like this when you are pretty sure they'll accept.

    I don't actually know which it was. If Canada wants to join, I'd be glad to be wrong and happy to have them in, under Trudeau or O'Toole.
    According to reports, the Canadians were entirely ignored, and were as surprised and blind-sided as France and the EU

    I've no idea why
    Well they say they have no interest in nuclear subs which could be true, or could be making the best of a bad job.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,796
    edited September 2021
    …..
  • Leon said:

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    Quite the opposite. The US, UK and allies working closely together is not in Putin's interests.
    Yes, this is the opposite of what he wants. If the Anglosphere really unites, militarily, that is a strong deterrent to him and China. He can rely on the EU to be pathetically divided and inert. Not this new alliance.
    Wait, Australia’s going to help out against Putin? How will that work?
    They already do, yes.

    Intelligence and Five Eyes is considerable. The Australians have their expertise.
    They already do? So what does that consist of, what’s the extra special stuff that they’ll be providing from now on, and which geographical flash points will it be taking place in?
    They already provide a lot of espionage and intelligence via Five Eyes and will be able to perform that role even better with nuclear submarines via this deal.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,325
    edited September 2021

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union, EU-Med, which met again yesterday, too.
  • @warlockwraith
    flotte de sous-marins à vendre, tout neuf avec du fromage gratuit. Vente rapide nécessaire.
    https://twitter.com/warlockwraith/status/1439275693548965893
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,557
    Ok, this is starting to worry me a little bit. Can someone reassure me that the lights are going to stay on this winter? It gets fucking cold up here and there's more than a few old folk around.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,795
    John Keiger:
    What the three Anglosphere states in the Aukus pact have put together is a loose, flexible and nimble arrangement for managing Indo-Pacific security directly. This is something that is second nature to states of a culture that General de Gaulle always referred to as ‘Anglo-Saxon’. It is just the kind of arrangement that is anathema to the formal, rational and legalistic method of the French and their cultural offshoot the EU, whose modus operandi was best demonstrated by the glacial formalism applied to the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-real-reason-france-was-excluded-from-aukus
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
    Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
    But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
    So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
    That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
    They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
    Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
    To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
    That is their aim.
    They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
    They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,949
    edited September 2021

    Leon said:

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    Quite the opposite. The US, UK and allies working closely together is not in Putin's interests.
    Yes, this is the opposite of what he wants. If the Anglosphere really unites, militarily, that is a strong deterrent to him and China. He can rely on the EU to be pathetically divided and inert. Not this new alliance.
    Wait, Australia’s going to help out against Putin? How will that work?
    They already do, yes.

    Intelligence and Five Eyes is considerable. The Australians have their expertise.
    They already do? So what does that consist of, what’s the extra special stuff that they’ll be providing from now on, and which geographical flash points will it be taking place in?
    They already provide a lot of espionage and intelligence via Five Eyes and will be able to perform that role even better with nuclear submarines via this deal.
    Sorry, maybe I wasn’t clear, I meant specific Putin/Russia related stuff. Is there anything you can point to or is this a tapping the side of your nose thing?

    It’ll be great when those nuclear subs come online in 15-20 years to fight the good fight against Putin.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,760
    edited September 2021
    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    Quite the opposite. The US, UK and allies working closely together is not in Putin's interests.
    Yes, this is the opposite of what he wants. If the Anglosphere really unites, militarily, that is a strong deterrent to him and China. He can rely on the EU to be pathetically divided and inert. Not this new alliance.
    We need to get the Canadians involved once Trudeau is gone, though.

    We can live without New Zealand, frankly.
    Why "once Trudeau is gone"?
    Because the Conservatives want to be in, while Trudeau can't be bothered.
    "Can't be bothered"? Yesterday everyone was saying Canada wasn't invited.
    You only invite someone to something like this when you are pretty sure they'll accept.

    I don't actually know which it was. If Canada wants to join, I'd be glad to be wrong and happy to have them in, under Trudeau or O'Toole.
    I'm glad you said this, because it's obvious that an awful lot of people on here are winging it, some to ridiculous effect. I wish more people on here admitted that they don't have the complete picture. Edit: because none of us do.
    It is not difficult

    AUKUS came about as Australia wants nuclear subs and France would not supply them

    In March AU - US - UK started to negotiate a deal to supply Australia with top secret US/UK technology and at the G7 the talks turned into AUKUS

    It is top secret as AUKUS does not trust France or the EU to leak nuclear secrets to Russia or China

    AUKUS is a tripartite military and security agreement and no country will be able to join AUKUS due to the secrecy, but others will become associated members and expect Japan and Canada to be involved fairly soon

    Of course this is a bombshell to France, but it is not at all clear that France even has the support of other EU members
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Farooq said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    Quite the opposite. The US, UK and allies working closely together is not in Putin's interests.
    Yes, this is the opposite of what he wants. If the Anglosphere really unites, militarily, that is a strong deterrent to him and China. He can rely on the EU to be pathetically divided and inert. Not this new alliance.
    We need to get the Canadians involved once Trudeau is gone, though.

    We can live without New Zealand, frankly.
    Why "once Trudeau is gone"?
    Because the Conservatives want to be in, while Trudeau can't be bothered.
    "Can't be bothered"? Yesterday everyone was saying Canada wasn't invited.
    You only invite someone to something like this when you are pretty sure they'll accept.

    I don't actually know which it was. If Canada wants to join, I'd be glad to be wrong and happy to have them in, under Trudeau or O'Toole.
    According to reports, the Canadians were entirely ignored, and were as surprised and blind-sided as France and the EU

    I've no idea why
    Well they say they have no interest in nuclear subs which could be true, or could be making the best of a bad job.
    I remember visiting West Edmonton Mall.
    They proudly told us that their indoor pool had more submarines than the Canadian Navy.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    New thread
  • Farooq said:

    Ok, this is starting to worry me a little bit. Can someone reassure me that the lights are going to stay on this winter? It gets fucking cold up here and there's more than a few old folk around.
    Even Johnny Redwood’s worried!
    Though it’s bound to be someone else’s fault.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1439102401219280900?s=21
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,991

    One person will be very pleased tonight : Vladimir Putin.

    He's a Kent supporter?
This discussion has been closed.