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Newly published YouGov carried out a week ago has CON lead down 4%

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited March 2021
    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    They're going to have to keep him from doing interviews. It's very sad.
    Look at the video I just posted..
    I don't want to - I can't actually watch. I wasn't around (politically) for Ronald Reagan's later difficulties, but from watching media responses back then, I have a sense of it being somehow considered bumbling and funny - this isn't bumbling and funny, it's downright uncomfortable and sad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    gealbhan said:


    I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.

    More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.

    Because we have all been living in a fucking open prison for a YEAR

    Nerves are stretched to breaking. I see it all around me
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
    "Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.

    Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
    Since late last year we have vaccinated 25 million people. That’s incredible. Some on here in October were doubting we’d ever get vaccines. I know it’s hard, and yes I’d encourage you to push the envelope a bit for your mental health. I have. I’m lucky in that I have had my first jab over 5/52 ago (sorry, couldn’t resist...) and have visited my parents on several occasions, as I deem it very risk free. I encourage you to take similar risk based decisions.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    edited March 2021
    On a more positive note, yesterday's vaccinations, reported today, were 529,119 in total.

    That's the best Tuesday figure to date.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    I appreciate this is speculation on your part but the format of the summary is excellent.

    Why does this goevernment not have the wit to put out a similarly clear summary based on the actual facts?

    It would make little difference, most people only read the headlines.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    tlg86 said:


    If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.

    I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).

    There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
    I'm thinking more if roles were reversed in terms of our PM threatening to stop exports of the vaccine. Perhaps I should have been demanding Boris resign over the number of deaths. But I do think VDL's behaviour is a magnitude worse. It's not the fuck up, it's the response.
    Well, he's acted in an irresponsible way in reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement and with the Internal Market Bill.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was the EU - Jesus.
    In fairness. That is speculation on your part thus far.
    However. A transparent government might not want that impression to arise.
    But we aren't blessed with a transparent government.
    And it might WANT that impression to arise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    Floater said:
    God, that is quite bad. Worse than Trump in some ways, for incoherence.

    Very strange syntax, unfinished thoughts, odd non sequiturs, "you have no soul".

    Pity America. Presumably, however, he is surrounded by smart people without dementia who are running the country, and he just has to sit there and smile vaguely
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Floater said:
    Wonder IF his parking tickets are all paid up? Doubt it!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:


    If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.

    I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).

    There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
    I'm thinking more if roles were reversed in terms of our PM threatening to stop exports of the vaccine. Perhaps I should have been demanding Boris resign over the number of deaths. But I do think VDL's behaviour is a magnitude worse. It's not the fuck up, it's the response.
    Well, he's acted in an irresponsible way in reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement and with the Internal Market Bill.
    Do you really think that those two things are comparable?

    And given the EU's behaviour regarding NI, we now know for sure that they don't give two fucks about peace on the island, so I don't see why we shouldn't do what we see fit for part of the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DougSeal said:

    Of course I may be completely wrong but I can’t see this announcement having a measurable effect on the roadmap. A third of us have had Covid, half of adults have been vaccinated. As a result maybe two thirds of the population now protected from serious disease? And the vast majority of those in the most vulnerable groups? Yeah, supply problems are a pain in the arse, but at least we can say to the EU that we too have issues with this, and they have surely been factored in anyway.

    Also, what’s happening with Novovax?

    Will need a few weeks for approval according to their twitter
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
    See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.

    Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2021
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:


    If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.

    I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).

    There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
    I'm thinking more if roles were reversed in terms of our PM threatening to stop exports of the vaccine. Perhaps I should have been demanding Boris resign over the number of deaths. But I do think VDL's behaviour is a magnitude worse. It's not the fuck up, it's the response.
    Well, he's acted in an irresponsible way in reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement and with the Internal Market Bill.
    Do you really think that those two things are comparable?

    And given the EU's behaviour regarding NI, we now know for sure that they don't give two fucks about peace on the island, so I don't see why we shouldn't do what we see fit for part of the UK.
    I don't know if they are comparable, but I'm capable simultaneously of holding the view that Boris Johnson is the worst PM we've had in living memory, and that Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders have spectacularly cocked up both their original vaccine procurement and their behaviour once it became clear that they had. I don't need to choose between these two views.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:


    If a British PM bad balls up this badly and then making wild threats like this, the men in grey suits would have been around by now telling them their service would no longer be required.

    I'm sorry, but this is complete nonsense. British PMs have cocked things up monumentally at the cost of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives, and not been removed from office: Attlee (catastrophic balls-up of the partition of India), Blair (Iraq), Boris (Christmas opening-up, and other Covid mistakes).

    There's absolutely nothing unique to the EU in cocking things up. It basically comes down to individuals, and unfortunately they're saddled with Ursula at the moment.
    I'm thinking more if roles were reversed in terms of our PM threatening to stop exports of the vaccine. Perhaps I should have been demanding Boris resign over the number of deaths. But I do think VDL's behaviour is a magnitude worse. It's not the fuck up, it's the response.
    Well, he's acted in an irresponsible way in reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement and with the Internal Market Bill.
    Do you really think that those two things are comparable?

    And given the EU's behaviour regarding NI, we now know for sure that they don't give two fucks about peace on the island, so I don't see why we shouldn't do what we see fit for part of the UK.
    I don't know if they are comparable, but I'm capable simultaneously of holding the view that Boris Johnson is the worst PM we've had in living memory, and that Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders have spectacularly cocked up both their original vaccine procurement and their behaviour once it became clear that they had. I don't need to choose between these two views.
    Yeah, but only one of them is threatening to seize property that doesn't belong to them.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Leon said:


    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    I think it's actually more likely that the EU are being over-optimistic again on the supplies they will get, have been shouting at the pharma companies rather than listening to them, and that they are going to be disappointed again. But we'll see.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
    See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.

    Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
    My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.

    I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    Cracking points
    "may not be repaired for a generation or more"

    During the last World War, education was massively more disrupted.

    It made no appreciable difference to post war educational levels, and indeed IQ continued to rise throughout.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited March 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    Yes, I think the only thing I'd add that's probably going into the worst case scenario planning is if the EU does decide to put up an export ban and we then need to rely on existing stockpiles for second doses and potentially source the remainder of the order from elsewhere which will take some amount of time. I think we've reached 13-14m first Pfizer doses so there is still some capacity to do more of them but until we can be certain that there won't be a supply interruption it would be ethically incorrect to continue the first dose programme while we have got 12m or so people who need their second doses of it (the majority of whom will need them in April).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    Why were you chastising someone for doing something that at the time was perfectly legal and within government guidance?

    Because it was clearly moronic and selfish. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should or haven't you learnt that over the past year?
    Selfish is a word bandied around here way, way too often.

    At that time, many people has skiing trips booked and the government said it was fine for them to go, and the law said it was fine for them to go.

    Sure, an anonymous bloke called Gideon on the internet told them it was selfish, so I guess they should have listened to him, rather than their own government, the NHS and the government of the destination country, which was welcoming travellers.
    I don't think I can improve upon my short comment so I will leave it there.
    It is probably best that you leave it there, in as much as that I agree.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    gealbhan said:


    I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.

    More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.

    If the pint was a reference to my post earlier, you really do have a problem identifying tongue-in-cheek commentary, don't you?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    But again, I don't believe the UK *would* retaliate. Because the whole thing would escalate to the damage of all, no one would get jabs.

    Perhaps HMG just took it on the chin, Boris is in favour of that.

    Ironically, if my suspicions are correct this actually vindicates one Remainer argument: the EU is better simply because it is bigger and more powerful, so we should be in it, sharing that power. The EU can bully big pharma by threatening access to an enormous market. 450m people.

    The idea that Macron, say, is morally incapable of doing this is nuts. The French blocked our lawfully contracted PPE imports just because they wanted to. They would definitely do the same with a vaccine - way more important - if they could.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
    "Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.

    Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
    Since late last year we have vaccinated 25 million people. That’s incredible. Some on here in October were doubting we’d ever get vaccines. I know it’s hard, and yes I’d encourage you to push the envelope a bit for your mental health. I have. I’m lucky in that I have had my first jab over 5/52 ago (sorry, couldn’t resist...) and have visited my parents on several occasions, as I deem it very risk free. I encourage you to take similar risk based decisions.
    Which is exactly what I propose to do. Not that there will necessary be very many opportunities for me to defy the lockdown (being a non-motorist I'm stuck with trains and they're the one place where you're most at risk of being picked out by a jobsworth for daring to travel more than about 500 yards from your house,) but to the extent I can, I will. The prospect of open-ended lockdown is intolerable.
  • Dutch TV for anyone interested, this seems to be working ok now:

    https://www.npostart.nl/live/npo-1
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    Cracking points
    "may not be repaired for a generation or more"

    During the last World War, education was massively more disrupted.

    It made no appreciable difference to post war educational levels, and indeed IQ continued to rise throughout.
    Well I would like to see the numbers on that, I really would.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
    "Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.

    Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
    Since late last year we have vaccinated 25 million people. That’s incredible. Some on here in October were doubting we’d ever get vaccines. I know it’s hard, and yes I’d encourage you to push the envelope a bit for your mental health. I have. I’m lucky in that I have had my first jab over 5/52 ago (sorry, couldn’t resist...) and have visited my parents on several occasions, as I deem it very risk free. I encourage you to take similar risk based decisions.
    Which is exactly what I propose to do. Not that there will necessary be very many opportunities for me to defy the lockdown (being a non-motorist I'm stuck with trains and they're the one place where you're most at risk of being picked out by a jobsworth for daring to travel more than about 500 yards from your house,) but to the extent I can, I will. The prospect of open-ended lockdown is intolerable.
    I wouldn't worry about trains if I were you. A friend of mine has been using them consistently for months (a photographer on assignment). He says he hasn't been stopped once, indeed he often doesn't buy a ticket because many of the gates are open and no one checks.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
    "Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.

    Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
    Since late last year we have vaccinated 25 million people. That’s incredible. Some on here in October were doubting we’d ever get vaccines. I know it’s hard, and yes I’d encourage you to push the envelope a bit for your mental health. I have. I’m lucky in that I have had my first jab over 5/52 ago (sorry, couldn’t resist...) and have visited my parents on several occasions, as I deem it very risk free. I encourage you to take similar risk based decisions.
    Which is exactly what I propose to do. Not that there will necessary be very many opportunities for me to defy the lockdown (being a non-motorist I'm stuck with trains and they're the one place where you're most at risk of being picked out by a jobsworth for daring to travel more than about 500 yards from your house,) but to the extent I can, I will. The prospect of open-ended lockdown is intolerable.
    What is intolerable is the promise of an exit that never materialises. Isn't it a well know interrogation technique?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    But again, I don't believe the UK *would* retaliate. Because the whole thing would escalate to the damage of all, no one would get jabs.

    Perhaps HMG just took it on the chin, Boris is in favour of that.

    Ironically, if my suspicions are correct this actually vindicates one Remainer argument: the EU is better simply because it is bigger and more powerful, so we should be in it, sharing that power. The EU can bully big pharma by threatening access to an enormous market. 450m people.

    The idea that Macron, say, is morally incapable of doing this is nuts. The French blocked our lawfully contracted PPE imports just because they wanted to. They would definitely do the same with a vaccine - way more important - if they could.
    It would leak - Public opinion would then insist on a response
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Also, I think it's almost certain that there will be at least some first doses in April, otherwise we will simply have Moderna doses sitting in the fridge doing nothing and as JVT said today, that's a waste.

    I think that Moderna are delivering around 1.2-1.5m doses per week to the UK from the first week of April. If we stick to the manufacturer recommendation and hold half of them aside then it means we will have around 0.6-0.8m first doses per week from that even if *no* AZ first doses are done in April. It's a much slower rate than we'd like but we also have Novavax in April too and there's a huge first shipment plus 2-3m per week ramping up to 5m per week in May. Again if we stick to the manufacturer recommendation and hold back 50% of doses then we could easily do 1-1.5m of these rising to 2.5m per week of first doses, plus whatever we have of Moderna. I personally think we're still on track for 3m first doses done per week of these two vaccines from May onwards plus the second dose programme for those two in groups 10 and 11 in addition to second Pfizer and AZ for groups 1-9.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    glw said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Ashworth comes across as a complete spanner, with almost Burgon levels of ignorance combined with self-righteousness.
    And an annoyingly nasal Northern accent...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    I mean, it is just very very odd

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372243765168119808?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited March 2021

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Biden Cabinet Confirmations

    Katherine Tai has just been confirmed (98-0) by US Senate as United States Trade Representative, a key post in dealing with . . . wait for it . . . China.

    Note that her unanimous confirmation is first for Biden administration. AND that the Yeas in her favor included US Sen. Josh "Bloody Hands" Hawley (R-MO) who previously made a fetish of voting against Uncle Joe's cabinet picks. Not voting were Hirono (D-HI) and Sanders (I-VT).

    Perhaps because, in the Obama administration, KT was USTR's point person for China, and her record commends her.

    Tai's confirmation leaves only a few cabinet-level positions as yet unfilled by a Biden nonimee

    > Secretary of Health and Human Services: nominee Xavier Beccera, currently CA state attorney general; Senate Finance Comm. tied (14-14) on nomination; cloture vote just passed senate today (50-49) so expect vote on confirmation any time now.

    > Secretary of Labor: nominee is Marty Walsh, now Mayor of Boston (the one in Massachusetts) was approved by Senate committee (18-4), now awaiting cloture vote, with floor vote on confirmation sched for March 22.

    Two more positions: Director of Office of Management and Budget (Neera Tanden's nomination has been withdrawn, and no new nominee yet) and Director of Office of Science & Technology Policy, with nominee Eric Lander awaiting a committee hearing, but already serving as Science Advisor to the President.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Tonight's news is a gift f
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    I mean, it is just very very odd

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372243765168119808?s=20
    It is extremely irregular. The government must explain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    But again, I don't believe the UK *would* retaliate. Because the whole thing would escalate to the damage of all, no one would get jabs.

    Perhaps HMG just took it on the chin, Boris is in favour of that.

    Ironically, if my suspicions are correct this actually vindicates one Remainer argument: the EU is better simply because it is bigger and more powerful, so we should be in it, sharing that power. The EU can bully big pharma by threatening access to an enormous market. 450m people.

    The idea that Macron, say, is morally incapable of doing this is nuts. The French blocked our lawfully contracted PPE imports just because they wanted to. They would definitely do the same with a vaccine - way more important - if they could.
    Or maybe the UK is soon going to come to a surprise "arrangement" on aspects of the Brexit deal.....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*
    Yes. An information vacuum is not good. It is a space for conspiracy theorists to gather (and I am probably one in this case).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    But again, I don't believe the UK *would* retaliate. Because the whole thing would escalate to the damage of all, no one would get jabs.

    Perhaps HMG just took it on the chin, Boris is in favour of that.

    Ironically, if my suspicions are correct this actually vindicates one Remainer argument: the EU is better simply because it is bigger and more powerful, so we should be in it, sharing that power. The EU can bully big pharma by threatening access to an enormous market. 450m people.

    The idea that Macron, say, is morally incapable of doing this is nuts. The French blocked our lawfully contracted PPE imports just because they wanted to. They would definitely do the same with a vaccine - way more important - if they could.
    It would leak - Public opinion would then insist on a response
    And it is - of course - far worse for it to be leaked, and to be see as craven than to pick a fight.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    edited March 2021

    Tonight's news is a gift f

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    I mean, it is just very very odd

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372243765168119808?s=20
    It is extremely irregular. The government must explain.
    They really must. Otherwise I am putting on my tin foil trilby and calling this a conspiracy. The EU fucked us over
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).

    A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Floater said:
    To be honest, I think we should be grateful that we've got this far without serious issues. There must be huge pressures on the raw materials now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    Floater said:
    Buried in that report, this:

    "The result is unacceptable to the EU Commission: According to EU circles, Novavax may not be able to deliver until 2022!"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    What is extremely odd.
    Why open Online bookings to 50-54 year olds (The biggest cohort to date I should imagine) on the very same day you announce shortages?
    Surely 53-54 might have been prudent?
    All very strange.
  • Leon said:

    Tonight's news is a gift f

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    I mean, it is just very very odd

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372243765168119808?s=20
    It is extremely irregular. The government must explain.
    They really must. Otherwise I am putting on my tin foil trilby and calling this a conspiracy. The EU fucked us over
    One theory.

    AZ have produced a bad batch (which is why quality control exists) and rather than give more ammo to the idiots over the channel that AZ is a bad vaccine it is being done on the hush hush.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    Buried in that report, this:

    "The result is unacceptable to the EU Commission: According to EU circles, Novavax may not be able to deliver until 2022!"
    Given the EU didn't order Novavax until February 2021, they're rather at the back of the queue for that one.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited March 2021

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    Tonight's news is a gift f

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    I mean, it is just very very odd

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372243765168119808?s=20
    It is extremely irregular. The government must explain.
    They really must. Otherwise I am putting on my tin foil trilby and calling this a conspiracy. The EU fucked us over
    One theory.

    AZ have produced a bad batch (which is why quality control exists) and rather than give more ammo to the idiots over the channel that AZ is a bad vaccine it is being done on the hush hush.
    That's quite a good theory.

    I prefer it to the one where the EU is so malign they screwed us, and the UK is so weak we accepted the rogering
  • ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    And in Contrarian world people like Derek Draper are fine because they haven't died from catching Covid-19.

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/tv/kate-garraway-shares-first-photo-20180889
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    Dutch TV for anyone interested, this seems to be working ok now:

    https://www.npostart.nl/live/npo-1

    There don't look to be any seismic changes from this election. It's right on the edge as to whether the current 4-party coalition gets a majority in the House of Representatives. The seat projections suggest VVD on 33 seats, CDA and D66 on 19 seats and the CU on 5 which would be 76 out of 150.

    As an aside, the latest Forsa poll in Germany has the Union on just 29%, Greens up to 21%, SPD 16%, AfD 10% and both FDP and Linke on 8%.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    rcs1000 said:

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    Cracking points
    "may not be repaired for a generation or more"

    During the last World War, education was massively more disrupted.

    It made no appreciable difference to post war educational levels, and indeed IQ continued to rise throughout.
    I think the biggest problem will be socially inequality. Middle class children have the IT access, parental skills and parents working from home to keep up much better than the working classes. True of other countries too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Short of actually bribing Boris Johnson (which I admit might be very cost effective), what is the incentive of HMG to be bullied by the EU?

    I guess there might be some massive quid quo pro we haven't heard about (such as happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis). But absent that, why wouldn't Boris choose to be hero by standing up to the EU?
    You miss my point.

    What if the EU has already done this, on the quiet. Just gone to Pfizer in Belgium and said give us the UK-bound jabs, or else. The EU has great power as a enormous market, 450m people. Would Pfizer stand firm? I seriously dunno.

    Then UVDL comes out and says this today to provide political cover for what has already happened (as others have suggested downthread).

    What would HMG do in reaction? Would they admit they have been swindled and defeated by the EU? Not a good look. Also, admitting it would cause one of the biggest peacetime rows in European history. Relations would be poisoned for a generation. A massive trade war would ensue, at a time of maximum economic peril.

    So, instead, HMG shrugs and sighs and decides to mumble but in reality say nothing, exactly as Hancock did today.

    This is far from impossible. I am suspicious.

    Well

    (1) it is the AZ vaccines that we are getting fewer shipments of, so that doesn't seem very likely
    (2) if it was the case, then the UK could threaten retaliation by stopping the shipments of precursors to the Pfizer vaccine
    But again, I don't believe the UK *would* retaliate. Because the whole thing would escalate to the damage of all, no one would get jabs.

    Perhaps HMG just took it on the chin, Boris is in favour of that.

    Ironically, if my suspicions are correct this actually vindicates one Remainer argument: the EU is better simply because it is bigger and more powerful, so we should be in it, sharing that power. The EU can bully big pharma by threatening access to an enormous market. 450m people.

    The idea that Macron, say, is morally incapable of doing this is nuts. The French blocked our lawfully contracted PPE imports just because they wanted to. They would definitely do the same with a vaccine - way more important - if they could.
    Or maybe the UK is soon going to come to a surprise "arrangement" on aspects of the Brexit deal.....
    That wouldn't surprise me. The UK is going to have something the EU desperately wants. And while "face" is very important to the Commission, there are lots of things they could be very helpful with.

    It reminds me of the Cuban Missile Crisis. At the time, it looked like the US had won a big victory. But the reason that the ships turned around is that JFK promised to remove the Minutemen rockets from Turkey. Maybe there's something we don't see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Floater said:
    I think Singapore has a similar system, to prevent ethnic enclaves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    edited March 2021
    Floater said:
    At the beginning of the Plague I remember watching a documentary by some epidemiologist about the general consequences of pandemics.

    One of them is radical political changes which would have been unthinkable pre-virus. Perhaps we are seeing one of the first, here
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
    See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.

    Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
    My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.

    I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
    If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.

    No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.

    It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.

    *https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/03/C1204-covid-19-vaccination-deployment-next-steps-on-uptake-and-supply.pdf
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    Buried in that report, this:

    "The result is unacceptable to the EU Commission: According to EU circles, Novavax may not be able to deliver until 2022!"
    Given the EU didn't order Novavax until February 2021, they're rather at the back of the queue for that one.
    Indeed. You can just imagine Ursula's face when she discovered we're getting the first 60 million doses. And we haven't 'stolen' them from anyone - quite the opposite, we've made them possible by contributing to the production facility.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
    See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.

    Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
    My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.

    I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
    If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.

    No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.

    It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.

    *https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/03/C1204-covid-19-vaccination-deployment-next-steps-on-uptake-and-supply.pdf
    Well then the government should be along shortly to explain WHY the supply has so suddenly broken down, and they can make conspiracy theorists like me look the fools we surely are.

    Would take about a minute. I am sure they will do it soon. Surely. Any minute now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    stodge said:

    Dutch TV for anyone interested, this seems to be working ok now:

    https://www.npostart.nl/live/npo-1

    There don't look to be any seismic changes from this election. It's right on the edge as to whether the current 4-party coalition gets a majority in the House of Representatives. The seat projections suggest VVD on 33 seats, CDA and D66 on 19 seats and the CU on 5 which would be 76 out of 150.

    As an aside, the latest Forsa poll in Germany has the Union on just 29%, Greens up to 21%, SPD 16%, AfD 10% and both FDP and Linke on 8%.

    That German poll is tantalising. No majority for the governing coalition of Union/SPD. Neither for the traffic light SPD/FDP/Green.
    Union/Green would look favourite then.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,346
    Leon said:

    Bad news. Unfortunately it's an expectations game and as there has been a lot of ramping on PB, it probably hurts more.

    But one way or another, the country will unlock eventually.

    However, clearly the issue of summer holidays for boomers is going to become hugely controversial. I remember chastising one poster on here who was gleefully reporting their skiing trip to Italy was still going ahead, in February 2020. I think we might all be seeing those sort of lively discussions in real life. Should be good fun.

    We've all been waiting patiently for the increase in supply in March, which has arrived. The fact that it's almost immediately been followed by a crash for the whole of April (which might last all Summer for all we know about it) is the real killer.

    "Eventually" ain't good enough.

    From a purely personal point of view, the Summer holidays abroad thing doesn't trouble me too much because I wasn't intending on having one anyway, but if there's vaccine apartheid within the UK as well (which I wouldn't put past the Government - as I said earlier, sorting the over 50s covers their core vote) I'll be fucking livid.
    Key phrase is could last 4/52. Not will. As max is constantly saying we will soon be drowning in vaccines. I know today feels bleak, but there was always going to be a point when the 2nd shots started going in in scale, with a scale back for the new 1st shots. Maybe take a time out and try to relax. You have my sympathy as this is clearly difficult for you, but we will get there.
    "Soon." Soon... is soon May, or June, or August or November? As I said before, we waited patiently for the supply to ramp back up in March, it's finally done it for all of three weeks, and now we've got four or five coming after that (and possibly a lot more for all we know) where supply has crashed again, and there's nothing left over to extend the project to the under 50s.

    Jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. Well, we shall see if the timetable for letting us all out of prison is stuck to, or if that turns into another case of jam tomorrow. Regardless, I'm done with lockdown. My options to wilfully violate it are limited, but any that present themselves will be gleefully taken.
    Since late last year we have vaccinated 25 million people. That’s incredible. Some on here in October were doubting we’d ever get vaccines. I know it’s hard, and yes I’d encourage you to push the envelope a bit for your mental health. I have. I’m lucky in that I have had my first jab over 5/52 ago (sorry, couldn’t resist...) and have visited my parents on several occasions, as I deem it very risk free. I encourage you to take similar risk based decisions.
    Which is exactly what I propose to do. Not that there will necessary be very many opportunities for me to defy the lockdown (being a non-motorist I'm stuck with trains and they're the one place where you're most at risk of being picked out by a jobsworth for daring to travel more than about 500 yards from your house,) but to the extent I can, I will. The prospect of open-ended lockdown is intolerable.
    I wouldn't worry about trains if I were you. A friend of mine has been using them consistently for months (a photographer on assignment). He says he hasn't been stopped once, indeed he often doesn't buy a ticket because many of the gates are open and no one checks.
    As you say, needn't worry about trains......Another one where the poor old tax payer, most of whom never use railways, is the bank of last resort to pay for the unbought tickets.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    For the record, I obey all the rules and will get a vaccine privately if and when they are available that way. Do I want to play the governments vaccine/lockdown game? no. Would I put someone at risk? also no.

    People wonder why Hancock and Van Tam are so utterly complacent and insouciant in the face of the mountain of misery that lockdown has caused and the terrible urgency people feel to be free

    Its partly because those who would question their policy and their motives get utterly slotted by supporters of lockdown with a mixture of insults, half baked arguments and crude and cynical appeals to emotion.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    Tonight is an acute example of that. I think people are willing to tolerate bumps in the road, especially since we have banked 25 million already. It’s unequivocally going well.

    But it’s madness to just ignore it, and let the media discover it via a letter to doctors, which will obvious trigger headline news the second it reaches inboxes.

    I mean, it’s been utterly amateurishly handled.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    He's refused a free one from the NHS IIRC. Would consider a private one...

    ... which puts all his other posts into some kind of context.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    As Mrs Eek pointed out at tea, announcing that the delay is due to a damaged batch or similar issue may cause people to try to avoid getting an AZ vaccine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    If the government is 'putting on a list" it might be easier to keep a list of refuseniks, as it will be a lot shorter!

    I note that refusers are now the majority of deaths in Israel despite being less than 10% of the over 50's.

    https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1372146363488698375?s=19
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    It’s a perfectly reasonable question to ask, and not cheap politics which is rare.

    The production of these products is always prone to fluctuations.

    I would guess Hancock didn’t address it as he was playing for time as he probably doesn’t yet know the reason for the reduced deliveries. No doubt his team will be all,over it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).

    A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
    Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:

    *If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip
    *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait
    *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature

    Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    For the record, I obey all the rules and will get a vaccine privately if and when they are available that way. Do I want to play the governments vaccine/lockdown game? no. Would I put someone at risk? also no.

    People wonder why Hancock and Van Tam are so utterly complacent and insouciant in the face of the mountain of misery that lockdown has caused and the terrible urgency people feel to be free

    Its partly because those who would question their policy and their motives get utterly slotted by supporters of lockdown with a mixture of insults, half baked arguments and crude and cynical appeals to emotion.

    So you DID refuse the vaccine?? Why FFS?

    That’s ridiculous.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    Buried in that report, this:

    "The result is unacceptable to the EU Commission: According to EU circles, Novavax may not be able to deliver until 2022!"
    Given the EU didn't order Novavax until February 2021, they're rather at the back of the queue for that one.
    They’ve been inept. Totally and utterly hopeless and the attacks on the AZ vaccine are unforgivable. The BBC news tonight was reporting people in the U.K. are losing confidence in the. AZ vaccine as a consequence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.

    LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown

    And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:

    "They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."

    National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)

    So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.

    What is going on?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    At the beginning of the Plague I remember watching a documentary by some epidemiologist about the general consequences of pandemics.

    One of them is radical political changes which would have been unthinkable pre-virus. Perhaps we are seeing one of the first, here
    Quite sinister if true.Never really seen the problem of ethnic enclaves anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Dutch TV for anyone interested, this seems to be working ok now:

    https://www.npostart.nl/live/npo-1

    Thanks. Still missing the Election Game.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    gealbhan said:


    I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.

    More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.

    Because we have all been living in a fucking open prison for a YEAR

    Nerves are stretched to breaking. I see it all around me
    Vaccine rollout about altruism and happy smiles, not selfishness and glumbucket faces under tinfoil head garb surely?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    He's refused a free one from the NHS IIRC. Would consider a private one...

    ... which puts all his other posts into some kind of context.
    Well it looks like you might be right. Which is saddening.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    You'd be the expert in swallowing bullshit, since you've already refused the vaccine you were offered just because you don't want the government to 'put you on a list'. Most other people would take it in a heartbeat, given the chance.

    Your credibility in moaning about why we can't go back to normal immediately is therefore, er, not strong.
    Has he refused a vaccine? Not sure that’s true. He is not an antivaxxer, I’m pretty certain he’s said that several times.
    I'm afraid he's said explicitly that he'll only consider taking the vaccine himself when it's available privately, and will never accept it from the NHS because he doesn't want to be on the list of the kind of people who take vaccines. I wish I were joking. He also said recently that he was 59, so assuming he was telling the truth about that, he's almost certainly been offered an NHS jab by now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.

    LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown

    And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:

    "They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."

    National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)

    So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.

    What is going on?
    In all seriousness the confusion appears to rest upon LauraK's claim about the problem being with AZ. She may be absolutely right but I would certainly wait for some confirmation of that because that claim seems to be the weak link in this chain.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).

    A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
    Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:

    *If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip
    *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait
    *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature

    Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
    Matt Hancock has said today that we are on track. What more do you want him to say?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    @dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.

    Am still trying. Thanks for asking. New ones keep coming up but no luck as of yet.
    I really need Centre for Life. Or at a push Carlisle, as I have no transport.
    Keep trying I guess.
    Cheers!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/1372241036983070721?s=19

    Labour don't help themselves..the first bit is fine, then a demand that Hancock just magic up more supply. Its not like he can just nip down to Waitrose and pick some more up.

    Did you actually read that tweet?

    How does "Matt Hancock must explain what the issue is with supply and what efforts are being made to resolve them" equate to a 'demand that Hancock just magic up more supply'?

    To me it seems perfectly reasonable request. A failure by Hancock to explain why the supply is going to reduce would (probably unfairly) lead to the suspicion that the government are in some way culpable. It would be sufficient to say that company x have have a production problem at y factory, or that there is a global shortage of vials, or whatever the true cause is...

    Brushing it under the carpet, as Hancock appeared to want to do, is not acceptable and will lead to damaging speculation.
    Agreed. It is a perfectly reasonable question, and Hancock must be made to answer.

    HMG needs to explain WHY there is a sudden supply problem. If it's a bad batch, a problem at the factory, then fair enough. Shit happens. Especially with Covid19. So why not just tell us that? Yet, they don't.

    At the moment, the eerie silence, and lack of explanation, leads me to suspect this might be EU pressure, and supplies have been redirected to the EU. And the government is saying nothing because they want to protect the companies from British anger, and they also want to dial down the vaccine war, before it gets worse.

    If it does come out that this was HMG caving in to the EU - Jesus.
    See my addition in bold - that's what you are really suggesting. I cannot see that as a possibility.

    Some will also speculate that there is indeed a safety issue with AZ. I don't beleive that either but conspiracy theories breed in a vacuum.
    My theory is: fait accompli. The EU has already done this. Grabbed our jabs. Hence the surprise announcement of a UK shortfall on the same day the EU provided cover for what has already happened.

    I would love to be proved wrong; I probably am. But it should be fairly easy for Boris to tell us the real problem with supply, if this is not the answer? Silence will not be good enough.
    If the EU had done that this government would be milking it for all it was worth. For one thing it would boost HMG's popularity at home no end. Secondly, it would give them licence to flex on other withdrawal agreement matters not to our (HMG's) liking.

    No, the idea that the EU has diverted UK-destined supplies and that that has prompted today's letter from Dr. Nikita Kanani* is pure fiction imo.

    It might happen in a cheap airport thriller but not in real life.

    *https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/03/C1204-covid-19-vaccination-deployment-next-steps-on-uptake-and-supply.pdf
    Well then the government should be along shortly to explain WHY the supply has so suddenly broken down, and they can make conspiracy theorists like me look the fools we surely are.

    Would take about a minute. I am sure they will do it soon. Surely. Any minute now.
    And if they (HMG) don't come along with a clear explanation in the next 30 minutes, is that because:

    a) They are utterly shite at basic comms, couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and don't know their arse from their elbow, or

    b) They have secretly agreed for half our planned vaccine supplies to go to the EU because, um, keeping the EU sweet is so important to this cabinet of, er, closet Europhiles?

    You decide.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    gealbhan said:


    I was reassured on PB, around the time RCS arguing the governments road map too cautious, lumpy supply couldn’t happen, because production is busy ramping up world over, so supply only going to go in one direction.

    More interesting though is the individual selfishness embedded in the reaction to this news - I want a pint - I want to travel for holiday - I want my jab and I want it now, call to arms for all under 50’s.

    Because we have all been living in a fucking open prison for a YEAR

    Nerves are stretched to breaking. I see it all around me
    Vaccine rollout about altruism and happy smiles, not selfishness and glumbucket faces surely?
    Nothing selfish about wanting to end the lockdown.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    As Mrs Eek pointed out at tea, announcing that the delay is due to a damaged batch or similar issue may cause people to try to avoid getting an AZ vaccine.
    And they can hang on for that for how long? It will leak, and then it will be far worse.

    Get in front of it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    dixiedean said:

    @dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.

    Am still trying. Thanks for asking. New ones keep coming up but no luck as of yet.
    I really need Centre for Life. Or at a push Carlisle, as I have no transport.
    Keep trying I guess.
    Cheers!
    Ah right, is the issue that you can get a vacine offer but not at a location you can get to?

    If so, that's a bummer - fingers-crossed you get a result soon.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Crack open a beer, stick on some Pharrell, dance in your kitchen and worry not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Rutte +2
    Wilders -3
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,280
    edited March 2021

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).

    A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
    Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:

    *If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip
    *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait
    *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature

    Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
    I hear you. I hope the government does.

    The only way to deal with the PR here is total transparency. People will accept cock-ups in a plague. But a total lack of explanation will breed anger (and conspiracy theories like mine)

    The govt got it right on the unlockdown calendar. Clear, transparent, firm. It was disappointingly conservative, but, sigh, we had a target to work to. It gave us clarity.

    Just saying "all new jabs will stop for a month" without a reason (indeed, hinting at conflicting reasons which don't make sense) is very BAD PR.

    Fuck that. Tell us.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    dixiedean said:

    @dixiedean have you managed to book a vaccine? Apparently if you try and do it after midnight, new appointments are released and you'll have more time to confirm it before it's taken before someone else.

    Am still trying. Thanks for asking. New ones keep coming up but no luck as of yet.
    I really need Centre for Life. Or at a push Carlisle, as I have no transport.
    Keep trying I guess.
    Cheers!
    If you are desperate, I could give you a lift, window open, mask on, and all that. Let me know.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Is it actually possible the EU has already..... done this? What's the alternative explanation?

    If the EU had done it, it would be front page news. They'd be crowing about cutting their own nose off, and the UK would be screaming blue murder.

    More likely, some of the expected production increases have not come through yet. And/or there have been manufacturing issues at one plant or another.

    And yet, the coincidence. See this excellent, eloquent article by SeanT in the Spectator (a onetime PB contributor, remember), where he talks wittily and vividly, and with remarkable concision, and an almost Wildean sharpness, allied to a quasi-Shakespearean vocabulary, about coincidences and Covid.

    Today we had quite the coincidence. A sudden unexpected drop in expected supplies "coming in" to the UK from late March. On the same day we learn that the EU is now expecting a large uptick in supplies... at the end of March.

    Hmm. If it were just that, maybe, yes: coincidence. And yet ALSO on the SAME DAY the president of the EU Commission stands up and says the EU is officially considering an embargo of vaccines into the UK from the EU, so the EU can have more

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-Id-write-covid-the-thriller
    Different vaccines, though. EU's boost is Pfizer, I think it's been confirmed that the UK's problem is with AZ.

    And stealing brand X before relabelling it brand Y doesn't strike me as a genius masterplan.
    Even by the standards of UVdL.
    Unless of course we had actually been getting AZ from the Halix site in the Netherlands? Would the government admit to that given they've said none of our supply was from the EU?
    It's all very fishy but it can be cleared up in a few minutes by a government minister explaining why there is a sudden shortfall in supply, on the same day the EU threatened our supply

    Just a few sentences. Problem at the factory. Sorry about that. Back to normal soon.

    Easy.

    *waits*

    Well quite. But you forget how utterly shite this government is at simple comms.
    Absent snark, I genuinely don't get this.

    LauraK at the BBC says the problem is with AZ supply. As I understand it, all our AZ comes from British factories, right? That's what I thought. If I am wrong, forgive me, I am driven lunatic by lockdown

    And yet, the NHS letter plainly says this:

    "They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply."

    National inbound vaccines supply must mean imports. From the EU (unless it is India, but they report no problems?)

    So this doesn't add up. On the one hand the issue is with AZ, on the other hand the NHS suggests the issue is imports presumably from the EU. Yet we don't get AZ from the EU.

    What is going on?
    Someone is not being truthful. That is what.
    Time for our fearless press to investigate. Oh wait! They are booking holidays.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282

    ridaligo said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    "Just a few more months"

    FUCK OFF

    I've just rewound iplayer to check this - JVT did indeed say "we are only talking about a few more months". Did he misspeak? - I bloody hope so.
    Why do you think Hancock and Van Tam are so blase, so casual and relaxed about your precious timetable? Why is it manifestly no big deal to them?

    Could it be perhaps, that people such as yourself and the vast majority on here have swallowed so much of what the government had to tell you hook line and sinker, poured scorn on those who asked questioned government policy such as myself, and actively disparaged the few who oppose government policy such as Toby Young and Julia HB?

    because of almost everybody on here, and the voters, Hancock can do what he wants. He can take his own sweet time.

    And that is manifestly what he intends to do.
    Remind me again why he's doing this? Is it titillation or something?
    No its power. exactly the same reason the government wants another six months of massive sweeping arbitrary powers. Why does it what those if we're coming out of lockdown in June?
    Yes, the way the power-mad government is keeping the schools closed is just terrible. Totalitarian, really.
    Oh come on ... schools may be back open but they are nowhere near back to normal ... social distancing, masks, teacher assessment instead of exams, no activities outside the class room and on and on. The damage to education caused by this power-mad government advised by a single-minded cabal of unaccountable scientists will last for years and may not be fully repaired for a generation or more.
    How can you possibly expect things to be back to normal when almost everyone in the school is unvaccinated? If these measures weren't in place, children could become superspreaders again and delay the whole unlocking. Which alternative do you prefer?
    Superspreaders to who? older people who, as Matt Hancock has just said, are way safer than they were due to being vaccinated with the addition protections of masks, social distancing and other lockdown goodies.

    This is in the realms of completely unjustifiable.
    Ever heard of these things called 'parents'? Most parents of school-age children are still unvaccinated, and so they'd be the ones infected if we let schools operate as normal. It's really not hard to understand.
    Healthy people under 60 (ie almost all parents) who have contracted and then died of or been hospitalised by covid are an extremely tiny number. Even those under 60 with underlying health problems who died or were hospitalised is a pretty small number.

    How much longer does central office think people are going to swallow this bullsh8t?
    It's a pretty nasty virus. You might be lucky and have a sniffle. Alternatively, you might feel dreadful 6 months later. Long term prognosis? Who knows (literally).

    A bit of a gamble though just letting rip.
    Unfortunately, the longer this drags on for, the more the calculus begins to shift. Consider:

    *If there were no vaccine, and no prospect of one, we'd have no choice but to let it rip
    *If there is a vaccine and we know it's coming soon, there's every incentive to hunker down and wait
    *However, if there is a vaccine but we've already been living with lockdowns, on and off, for an entire year, and have no bloody idea how much longer we're going to be made to do so, then people are going to lose patience. That's just human nature

    Do I have to slog back and forth to work and the stupid shops and do nothing else, rotting away in this shitty little town and being forbidden from seeing all my family, all my friends, and otherwise just stew, until May, July, October, Spring 2022? The repeated delays don't inspire confidence, but the fact that no good explanation of them (or how fucking long they're going to drag on for) is offered makes things a hundred times worse. If I was reasonably sure I'd only have to rot until early Summer I might be able to hack it, but no such reassurance is forthcoming so I've lost faith, and any interest in playing along with the Government's endless jam tomorrow plans along with it. I guarantee you I won't be the only one.
    Matt Hancock has said today that we are on track. What more do you want him to say?
    Well he could start with why the supplies are going to dip in April.

    There must be a reason - is it so hard for him just to explain what the reason is?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited March 2021
    D66 the big winners in the Dutch election. From 19 to 27.
This discussion has been closed.