That Vanity Fair article is explosive. It came from the lab, almost certainly
What will this do to West/China relations?
What will it do to virology, and science at large?
Tony Fauci needs to go on trial and - if convicted - do time, as do many top boffins around the world who conspired in the cover-up - Vallance and Farrar in the UK, for a start - and many others
Peter Daszak and others close to the crime need Nuremberg Trials with potential execution at the end, if convicted. Twenty MILLION people have died. Worse than World War One
I have always believed that it came from a lab. Nothing else made sense. The question was whether they did this deliberately or by cock up. Cock up has always looked a strong favourite to me and it remains so. A further and more problematic question was whether it was acceptable for them doing this kind of research in the first place. To which the obvious answer is no. At that point relations do become more problematic.
Why ‘nothing else’? New viruses make the transition between species rather frequently. What do you is the origin of the original SARS? Or MERS? It’s possible it came from the lab, for sure, but asserting ‘nothing else’ makes sense is too strong.
Absolutely. HIV is an obvious other one. In my adult lifetime there have been two newsworthy lab leaks in the UK (Smallpox and Foot and Mouth), although neither were of an engineered virus so not as good a story for those looking for one. It seems to me that both origins are plausible and contrary to Leon's conspiracy theories either could be true. Unfortunately he might post something that is relevant in his hundreds of posts, but there is so much crap he believes in that it is like the crying wolf story and you miss the gems for all the crap. Has anyone heard anymore about the hundreds of UFOs flying over the Ukraine?
There have been frequent worldwide pandemics through recorded history, even when travel was much less frequent - e.g. the Black Death in the mid 1300s. None of these started in 'labs'. Therefore it is perfectly possible for new diseases and pestilences to pop up and spread. In fact, it is to be expected.
In the 1900s, we had the 1918 'Spanish' flu. The 1957 pandemic. The 1980s AIDS crisis.
This does not mean that the lab leak hypothesis is impossible; just that 'natural' outbreaks of novel diseases are hardly unknown or amazing.
Worth noting that jumps of animal diseases to human populations are not unusual. Notably BSE/CJD, ebola, HIV as well as multiple flu variants and even the Coronavirus in MERS.
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
I still can’t work out the psychology of this. Lab Leak is, circumstantially, very highly plausible. And the evidence grows over time, rather than the opposite
Yet apparently sane people are desperate to deny it. To the extent of vapid lunacy
Why? Because blaming the Chinese labs is racist? It’s not like “OMG they eat bats” is LESS racist
I can understand why some scientists might fear the hypothesis. For the rest it must be a simple fear of anything Trump claimed turning out to be true?
I am open to other suggestions
The trouble is Leon you come out with so much bollocks that when you do come out with something that might be correct we all think it is more bollocks.
You might have a point if it was only Leon coming out with this hypothesis. I suspect even Leon would take most of what he claims with a pinch of salt. But he is right that the Lab leak idea has been desperately attacked even when other, perhaps more level, heads have suggested it. There does seem to be some deep rooted antipathy to the slightest suggestion that this was anything other than a 'natural' occurrence.
I'm open minded and I haven't looked at any evidence. Just making the point that Leon comes out with so many conspiracy theories he suffers from crying wolf. Not that I mind. I find Leon great entertainment and he is game enough to take the flack
That Vanity Fair article is explosive. It came from the lab, almost certainly
What will this do to West/China relations?
What will it do to virology, and science at large?
Tony Fauci needs to go on trial and - if convicted - do time, as do many top boffins around the world who conspired in the cover-up - Vallance and Farrar in the UK, for a start - and many others
Peter Daszak and others close to the crime need Nuremberg Trials with potential execution at the end, if convicted. Twenty MILLION people have died. Worse than World War One
I have always believed that it came from a lab. Nothing else made sense. The question was whether they did this deliberately or by cock up. Cock up has always looked a strong favourite to me and it remains so. A further and more problematic question was whether it was acceptable for them doing this kind of research in the first place. To which the obvious answer is no. At that point relations do become more problematic.
Why ‘nothing else’? New viruses make the transition between species rather frequently. What do you is the origin of the original SARS? Or MERS? It’s possible it came from the lab, for sure, but asserting ‘nothing else’ makes sense is too strong.
Absolutely. HIV is an obvious other one. In my adult lifetime there have been two newsworthy lab leaks in the UK (Smallpox and Foot and Mouth), although neither were of an engineered virus so not as good a story for those looking for one. It seems to me that both origins are plausible and contrary to Leon's conspiracy theories either could be true. Unfortunately he might post something that is relevant in his hundreds of posts, but there is so much crap he believes in that it is like the crying wolf story and you miss the gems for all the crap. Has anyone heard anymore about the hundreds of UFOs flying over the Ukraine?
There have been frequent worldwide pandemics through recorded history, even when travel was much less frequent - e.g. the Black Death in the mid 1300s. None of these started in 'labs'. Therefore it is perfectly possible for new diseases and pestilences to pop up and spread. In fact, it is to be expected.
In the 1900s, we had the 1918 'Spanish' flu. The 1957 pandemic. The 1980s AIDS crisis.
This does not mean that the lab leak hypothesis is impossible; just that 'natural' outbreaks of novel diseases are hardly unknown or amazing.
Not sure @Jossiasjessop whether you thought I was posting something different (and I had badly worded it) or whether you were just supporting my argument, but I agree with you 100%
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
I still can’t work out the psychology of this. Lab Leak is, circumstantially, very highly plausible. And the evidence grows over time, rather than the opposite
Yet apparently sane people are desperate to deny it. To the extent of vapid lunacy
Why? Because blaming the Chinese labs is racist? It’s not like “OMG they eat bats” is LESS racist
I can understand why some scientists might fear the hypothesis. For the rest it must be a simple fear of anything Trump claimed turning out to be true?
I am open to other suggestions
The lab leak is circumstantially very highly plausible.
But the evidence for it is exactly the same as it's always been: that the outbreak started very close to a place where bat viruses were being studied. There's no new evidence, and unless a lab worker came out and said something (which is unlikely given China's government), then the situation is likely to remain the same in perpetuity.
The other piece of evidence (what would it be called? It’s not really circumstantial) is that they’ve failed to prove the animal transmission chain. They have absolutely been looking and testing and trying… once you exclude the alternatives whatever remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth…
With all of the viruses mentioned in my post above we haven't really established an animal transmission chain either. Were they all lab leaks? Or is it just that proving animal to human transmission is difficult?
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
A 27% point deficit for the governing party during their leader's honeymoon period should set the alarm bells ringing.
Lefties keep talking about a "honeymoon period" which is just a sign they aren't paying attention. This is not a honeymoon period.
Isn’t it? Isn’t a new leader bounce a proven historical precedence?
Would you like to explain what you mean?
It's not remotely a honeymoon period - that requires there to be positive coverage. "Relief that Truss has gone" is not positive coverage.
Sunak has taken over in an unprecedented position of shittiness. Suggesting he's failing because he hasn't bounced to 35% overnight shows a lack of understanding of the circumstances.
So instead of a honeymoon bounce, you see Rishi Sunak slowly dragging the Tories back to towards 35% over the coming two years till the election?
I don't think the lack of an immediate bounce to 35% necessarily precludes a slow climb to 35%. Obviously lots of things have to start going right to reach that high, but there's a long time to go until the election.
I disagree. My reading of the political situation, economic situation and polling is completely opposite from your argument.
A bounce from the honeymoon period we are in
I'm going to stop you there, because you're assuming what you're trying to prove. This is a sufficient logical fallacy that it renders the rest of your argument irrelevant, I'm afraid.
But earlier you said: "Lefties keep talking about a "honeymoon period" which is just a sign they aren't paying attention. This is not a honeymoon period. "
Aren't you also just assuming what you're trying to prove?
PS You're also being extremely arrogant and irritating in disregarding and cutting @Moonrabbit's very plausible argument.
I am baffled by the stipulation that "It's not remotely a honeymoon period - that requires there to be positive coverage." Honeymoons don't usually get, or require, "coverage" of any kind. The metaphor is very, very simple: you like what is new simply because it is new and you have yet to identify its defects.
To recap one of my favourite sad graphs;
The main way is down for our satisfaction with Prime Ministers. We start not knowing much about them and get disappointed as we discover more. In large part that's because we collectively hope that this one, the new one, will be the promised Messiah. At worst, they turn out to be a very naughty boy, at best they just don't fulfil our hopes. And that's partly our fault as voters in pinning too many hopes on them.
Is this an immutable law of nature? Of course not. But if the data point one way and there's a plausible mechanism explaining why, you need to be pretty exceptional to be an exception.
Conclusion: Rishi's not dead yet. And he's almost certainly the best leader for the Conservatives. But he's not cut through anything like sufficiently yet, and this is his best chance. If he doesn't do so by (say) the not-Budget next month, it's not obvious when he will.
I agree with all of this, however this is talking about PM satisfaction ratings which don't always have a strong correlation with voting intention.
Hmmm. It is a popular belief around here that satisfaction ratings are a *better* indication of voting intention, outside of a general election campaign.
The solution is obviously for all householders to carry hammers at all times. Only good guys with hammers can protect us from bad people with hammers...
There is a strong suggestion of a money trail from the West to the Chinese lab re: coronaviruses so I expect relations between the West/China to be fine.
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
That's one ludicrous claim (vaccines are dangerous) and two plausible theories.
Masks are unpleasant to wear (at least in my view) and the benefit is limited, but they are not inherently bad.
I think they are great in the right settings. School was not one, especially for primary school kids.
Agreed - the primary benefit is preventing onward infection by an existing sufferer. Mass transportation systems, for example, could make sense. Healthcare setting definitely. Schools not so much.
We’re having a productive day it seems. I wonder if Vlad’s been having a chat with his friend Ayatollah Khamenei who reminded him that the sly English fox is the invisible puppet master behind everything, controlling the Americans and even Israel. Perhaps the Brits are behind the genetically engineered robot mosquitoes too.
I have a friend of Iranian heritage, he tells me that there is a saying (that goes back to Persian times):
If you stub your toe on a rock, you can be sure an Englishman left it there.
I spend all my days leaving rocks all over the place.
Particularly in Scotland.
Owwww! So, it was you? You bastard! (Exit stage right, limping.)
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
I still can’t work out the psychology of this. Lab Leak is, circumstantially, very highly plausible. And the evidence grows over time, rather than the opposite
Yet apparently sane people are desperate to deny it. To the extent of vapid lunacy
Why? Because blaming the Chinese labs is racist? It’s not like “OMG they eat bats” is LESS racist
I can understand why some scientists might fear the hypothesis. For the rest it must be a simple fear of anything Trump claimed turning out to be true?
I am open to other suggestions
The lab leak is circumstantially very highly plausible.
But the evidence for it is exactly the same as it's always been: that the outbreak started very close to a place where bat viruses were being studied. There's no new evidence, and unless a lab worker came out and said something (which is unlikely given China's government), then the situation is likely to remain the same in perpetuity.
The other piece of evidence (what would it be called? It’s not really circumstantial) is that they’ve failed to prove the animal transmission chain. They have absolutely been looking and testing and trying… once you exclude the alternatives whatever remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth…
With all of the viruses mentioned in my post above we haven't really established an animal transmission chain either. Were they all lab leaks? Or is it just that proving animal to human transmission is difficult?
Your post above has been culled so I don’t have the list, but from memory
AIDS - chimps to humans MERS - bats to camels to humans Plague - rats to fleas to humans SARS - bats to pangolin to humans
It’s also not just the species vector but how it gets to Wuhan they have been trying to prove.
Edit: influenza is usually poultry sometimes swine
We’re having a productive day it seems. I wonder if Vlad’s been having a chat with his friend Ayatollah Khamenei who reminded him that the sly English fox is the invisible puppet master behind everything, controlling the Americans and even Israel. Perhaps the Brits are behind the genetically engineered robot mosquitoes too.
I have a friend of Iranian heritage, he tells me that there is a saying (that goes back to Persian times):
If you stub your toe on a rock, you can be sure an Englishman left it there.
I spend all my days leaving rocks all over the place.
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
I still can’t work out the psychology of this. Lab Leak is, circumstantially, very highly plausible. And the evidence grows over time, rather than the opposite
Yet apparently sane people are desperate to deny it. To the extent of vapid lunacy
Why? Because blaming the Chinese labs is racist? It’s not like “OMG they eat bats” is LESS racist
I can understand why some scientists might fear the hypothesis. For the rest it must be a simple fear of anything Trump claimed turning out to be true?
I am open to other suggestions
The lab leak is circumstantially very highly plausible.
But the evidence for it is exactly the same as it's always been: that the outbreak started very close to a place where bat viruses were being studied. There's no new evidence, and unless a lab worker came out and said something (which is unlikely given China's government), then the situation is likely to remain the same in perpetuity.
The other piece of evidence (what would it be called? It’s not really circumstantial) is that they’ve failed to prove the animal transmission chain. They have absolutely been looking and testing and trying… once you exclude the alternatives whatever remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth…
With all of the viruses mentioned in my post above we haven't really established an animal transmission chain either. Were they all lab leaks? Or is it just that proving animal to human transmission is difficult?
Your post above has been culled so I don’t have the list, but from memory
AIDS - chimps to humans MERS - bats to camels to humans Plague - rats to fleas to humans SARS - bats to pangolin to humans
It’s also not just the species vector but how it gets to Wuhan they have been trying to prove.
I think plague is now thought to be more lice transmission between humans, than the rat/flea nexus, but otherwise spot on.
That new Black Panther movie must be absolute pants, just saw a trailer for it at the cinema which was of the actors saying how important a movie it was and how amazing - it's never a good sign when even a trailer cannot be made good, so they retreat to getting the actors to just tell us it is good.
The Peripheral on Amazon worth a watch (early days only 3 episodes released so far).
Agreed, I've really enjoyed it so far. And it is a lot more comprehensible than the book which I found not much short of bewildering.
This year, when the war in Ukraine began to go badly for Russia, the Kremlin yanked the 11th Army Corps from Kaliningrad and sent it into Ukraine. Where the Ukrainian army quickly destroyed it.…
I think the current Russian plan is to pull back their first echelon units to refit for spring, and fill the line with mobiks in the meantime.
The current Ukranian plan seems to be to use their fresh troops to make that impossible. They seem to have paused again, returning to destroying Russian logistics and attriting the Russian front line. When the opportunity presents, I suspect that UKR will break though again.
At the moment the UKR army looks the best in Europe. Well led, increasingly well equipped and with high morale.
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
A 27% point deficit for the governing party during their leader's honeymoon period should set the alarm bells ringing.
Lefties keep talking about a "honeymoon period" which is just a sign they aren't paying attention. This is not a honeymoon period.
Isn’t it? Isn’t a new leader bounce a proven historical precedence?
Would you like to explain what you mean?
It's not remotely a honeymoon period - that requires there to be positive coverage. "Relief that Truss has gone" is not positive coverage.
Sunak has taken over in an unprecedented position of shittiness. Suggesting he's failing because he hasn't bounced to 35% overnight shows a lack of understanding of the circumstances.
So instead of a honeymoon bounce, you see Rishi Sunak slowly dragging the Tories back to towards 35% over the coming two years till the election?
I don't think the lack of an immediate bounce to 35% necessarily precludes a slow climb to 35%. Obviously lots of things have to start going right to reach that high, but there's a long time to go until the election.
I disagree. My reading of the political situation, economic situation and polling is completely opposite from your argument.
A bounce from the honeymoon period we are in
I'm going to stop you there, because you're assuming what you're trying to prove. This is a sufficient logical fallacy that it renders the rest of your argument irrelevant, I'm afraid.
But earlier you said: "Lefties keep talking about a "honeymoon period" which is just a sign they aren't paying attention. This is not a honeymoon period. "
Aren't you also just assuming what you're trying to prove?
PS You're also being extremely arrogant and irritating in disregarding and cutting @Moonrabbit's very plausible argument.
I am baffled by the stipulation that "It's not remotely a honeymoon period - that requires there to be positive coverage." Honeymoons don't usually get, or require, "coverage" of any kind. The metaphor is very, very simple: you like what is new simply because it is new and you have yet to identify its defects.
To recap one of my favourite sad graphs;
The main way is down for our satisfaction with Prime Ministers. We start not knowing much about them and get disappointed as we discover more. In large part that's because we collectively hope that this one, the new one, will be the promised Messiah. At worst, they turn out to be a very naughty boy, at best they just don't fulfil our hopes. And that's partly our fault as voters in pinning too many hopes on them.
Is this an immutable law of nature? Of course not. But if the data point one way and there's a plausible mechanism explaining why, you need to be pretty exceptional to be an exception.
Conclusion: Rishi's not dead yet. And he's almost certainly the best leader for the Conservatives. But he's not cut through anything like sufficiently yet, and this is his best chance. If he doesn't do so by (say) the not-Budget next month, it's not obvious when he will.
I agree with all of this, however this is talking about PM satisfaction ratings which don't always have a strong correlation with voting intention.
Hmmm. It is a popular belief around here that satisfaction ratings are a *better* indication of voting intention, outside of a general election campaign.
Right. But it's too early to know what Sunak's personal satisfaction ratings are - there haven't been any polls from pollsters with a track record conducted entirely after he became PM that asked the question, as far as I can see. Perhaps this evening will shed some more light.
Why do the trolls always end up on COVID conspiracy theories? Vaccines are dangerous, masks are bad, it came from a lab leak… on and on.
Because people like you associate two ludicrous claims (vaccines are dangerous and masks are bad) with a plausible theory (lab leak).
I still can’t work out the psychology of this. Lab Leak is, circumstantially, very highly plausible. And the evidence grows over time, rather than the opposite
Yet apparently sane people are desperate to deny it. To the extent of vapid lunacy
Why? Because blaming the Chinese labs is racist? It’s not like “OMG they eat bats” is LESS racist
I can understand why some scientists might fear the hypothesis. For the rest it must be a simple fear of anything Trump claimed turning out to be true?
I am open to other suggestions
The lab leak is circumstantially very highly plausible.
But the evidence for it is exactly the same as it's always been: that the outbreak started very close to a place where bat viruses were being studied. There's no new evidence, and unless a lab worker came out and said something (which is unlikely given China's government), then the situation is likely to remain the same in perpetuity.
The other piece of evidence (what would it be called? It’s not really circumstantial) is that they’ve failed to prove the animal transmission chain. They have absolutely been looking and testing and trying… once you exclude the alternatives whatever remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth…
With all of the viruses mentioned in my post above we haven't really established an animal transmission chain either. Were they all lab leaks? Or is it just that proving animal to human transmission is difficult?
Your post above has been culled so I don’t have the list, but from memory
AIDS - chimps to humans MERS - bats to camels to humans Plague - rats to fleas to humans SARS - bats to pangolin to humans
It’s also not just the species vector but how it gets to Wuhan they have been trying to prove.
Edit: influenza is usually poultry sometimes swine
I don't think those zoonotic transmissions to humans have been proven, just hypothesised.
It is very hard to prove their origins, simply too many missing links.
Eddie Howe has made a massive difference. The owners have spent money, but not gone mad like a child in a sweetshop.
Decent performance today for Leicester, could easily have had a point off Man City. The team looks a lot happier defending. I now think we will stay up.
Joelinton has really surprised me. Since he moved to a box to box midfielder as opposed to being a forward he has really made a difference. He’s totally transformed.
That new Black Panther movie must be absolute pants, just saw a trailer for it at the cinema which was of the actors saying how important a movie it was and how amazing - it's never a good sign when even a trailer cannot be made good, so they retreat to getting the actors to just tell us it is good.
The Peripheral on Amazon worth a watch (early days only 3 episodes released so far).
Agreed, I've really enjoyed it so far. And it is a lot more comprehensible than the book which I found not much short of bewildering.
< Pedant > Looks entertaining - but they clearly didn't ask anyone who knows about liners about the designs of Kerberos or Prometheus - there was only one 4 funnel liner in 1899 and it looked nothing like those two (which appear modelled on Mauretania/Lusitania of 1906) < / Pedant >
Comments
#RememberJamalKhashoggi
“A lot of people get hit with hammers…”
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1586121294701002752
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/oct/28/mondrian-painting-has-been-hanging-upside-down-for-75-years
https://theintercept.com/2021/11/03/coronavirus-research-ecohealth-nih-emails/
AIDS - chimps to humans
MERS - bats to camels to humans
Plague - rats to fleas to humans
SARS - bats to pangolin to humans
It’s also not just the species vector but how it gets to Wuhan they have been trying to prove.
Edit: influenza is usually poultry sometimes swine
The current Ukranian plan seems to be to use their fresh troops to make that impossible. They seem to have paused again, returning to destroying Russian logistics and attriting the Russian front line. When the opportunity presents, I suspect that UKR will break though again.
At the moment the UKR army looks the best in Europe. Well led, increasingly well equipped and with high morale.
NEW THREAD
It is very hard to prove their origins, simply too many missing links.