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Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition) – politicalbetting.com

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    EU and NATO states swing behind US belief that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine after unprecedented level of intelligence-sharing, as allies back Biden’s demand for tough deterrence package ahead of Putin call https://ft.com/content/b287f2e3-3b8b-4095-b704-c255a943c84c @FinancialTimes

    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1467592759632543744?s=20

    Realistically NATO boots on the ground is the only thing that will really stop the Russians.
    I've said before that dealing with Russia is a case of containment. You just have to draw the line somewhere and hold it; and from that point it starts to become possible to deal with the Russian regime rather than from the current position of dithering, grandiose rhetoric, huffing and puffing, various sanctions - basically cowardice.

    The Russians will keep testing and I suspect that there will never be a 'boots on the ground' response because it won't be politically possible. So they will probably eventually sweep up a large part of Eastern Europe unopposed; it will not be an invasion, but compliant regimes. And all this could happen very quickly.

    I'm a bit sceptical. The Ukraine has played the "Russians poised to invade" card every month for quite a while now, and because they DID invade previously it looks credible and of course they're nervous, but I don't see that Putin gets much out of it except a rebellious population. My guess is he'll trade a pullback for Germany opening the controversial gas pipeline.
    I think that’s Panglossian, Nick.
    It fails to acknowledge Putin’s ideological drive to retake what he sees as lost territory.
    It ain’t just Ukraine who is assessing this likely risk.
    According to people who actual knew Putin, he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. Its is an article of that faith, that any territory that Russia has ever held must be part of Russia again, going all the way back to the Tsars.
    Surely he wouldn't invade Poland and Finland?
    Only because he *can't*

    He's not mad or stupid like... the Austrian street artist.

    Invading either would kick off the alliance systems* against him.

    As he sees it, Ukraine was abandoned outside the defences of Europe when Europe and the US didn't follow through on the promises made when the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons.

    Another bite out of Ukraine would be extremely popular in ultra-nationalist circles in Russia.

    *NATO, EU etc etc.
    That’s because it is on the wrong side of the carpathians. It’s a strategic threat for Russia for a foreign power to hold Ukraine
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    jonny83 said:

    Could have been worse... could have been made of knapped flint.
    Slipped and fell naked or did the ammunition somehow penetrate his clothing?
    The list of other items in the article is startling. Live eels? An aubergine? Concrete mix?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    F1 is boring, just cars whizzing around in a circle. Also causes pollution, because the vehicles aren't electric.

    So there!

    Actually F1 has quite possibly been very good for the environment, not negative for it.

    A lot of technological and efficiency advances have been developed for F1 vehicles that have then reached general vehicles as a result. Since there's only a few F1 vehicles but there's billions of general vehicles, improving efficiency in general vehicles more than makes up for any fuel consumed in F1.
    That very much reminds me of the argument that Christianity has been a force for good because look at all the paintings, look at all the architecture. It's difficult to know what artistic works would have been made without religion "driving" it. Perhaps as much? Perhaps less? Perhaps more? Kind of difficult to quantify.
    Not the same thing at all.

    Christianity crowded out and put down every alternative. F1 hasn't done the same thing at all.

    If F1 fans had murdered every other sport or motor initiative then it might be remotely comparable.
    I didn't say "the same thing". I said "it reminds me".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On-topic, I'd prefer a really big voodoo poll rather than a small poll that has been weighted to within an inch of its life.

    You’d gallop to the wrong conclusion, leaving you Dewey-eyed if you bet on it

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    CatMan said:

    Well I got my Moderna booster today (after having two Astras). No reaction so far. I didn't with the original shots either. Does that mean anything, or is it just luck?

    You must be in the placebo cohort.
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