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Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Toms said:

    A couple of weeks ago we were walking at dusk just near the river. At such times in Winter one often sees a fine sunset for 10 minutes or so. Then we were treated to a truly spectacular display. A scattering of clouds all across the sky reflected rosy-fingered light from the retreating Sun. A colossal waxing crescent moon shone, and, slightly higher, Jupiter lurked. That park is a Victorian bequest and the waning light played through the trees denuded branches. God's own movie set.

    Anyway, the only downside was the cars scuttling along the embankment like cockroaches heading home to their tea.

    Very nice prose.
    Brings me in mind of Powell for some reason.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    This thread has

    been reshuffled to Shadow Levelling Up Minister

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Andy_JS said:

    The Queen has just a few hours left as Barbados head of state.

    She could beat them to the punch..
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    This is beginning to look like a serious Shadow Cabinet.

    Yep. :+1:

    Sir K has just made himself look a very serious player.
    None of them are stand out though. Cooper overrated IMHO. Lammey’s a fool. Reeves is solid although dull. I like Ashworth, and Nandy should do a good job (she was overpromoted before).

    But the actual Cabinet isn’t much better - Sunak, Wallace, Saj are all decent. Truss is ok although I don’t see why people get excited about her. Most of the rest I don’t know who they are or wish I didn’t…
    It's not a Shadow Cabinet to give one nightmares, is it? You don't look at the big hitters and think "they're not remotely up to it, don't insult me by putting them forward to run the country". Decent turnaround in less than two years.

    And doing it while Labour are nosing ahead in the polls is a smart move by Starmer.
    The politics is great.

    But I’m looking at both sides and thing: f*** me, my granny could do a better job and she’s been dead since ‘78
    Fully agree- but if 2019 was a choice between two frankly terrible options, one of them moving to uninspiring is progress. And it does give me a bit of hope that, when the time comes, the Conservatives can de-Johnson themselves more quickly than I thought.

    But mostly- baby steps.
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    Cancelling our Valneva order is looking potentially really stupid now there's a new variant threat. I thought it was a bad idea anyway, but if it turns out to be really good vs omicron, as I gather it is against all the previous variants, Kate Bingham will be seriously pissed off.

    I thought it was a bad idea to cancel as even if we didn't need it we want a big surplus to help vaccinate the world.

    I hope we didn't cancel it because they're French.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well he’s losing on the measure to a PM that’s in a hole. I had a billion pounds at 8/1 with a mate that Sir Keir would win Best PM this week w R&W too, bah
    You're a troll. And not a very good one!
    All the best with your illness
    Not clever Sam. Whatever the disagreements we all have amongst ourselves on here there are certain things that just aren't acceptable. Not many perhaps but that is definitely one of them.
    I’ve had close friends die from mental illness, and had my moments myself, but why should I be dug out by someone who makes stuff up, claims to be depressed, then gets a free hit when he starts ripping into me? For all I know he’s making it all up or is another poster pretending
    Honest, mate, I can see all that, but just leaaave it aaaaht. not wurf it. Ignore.
    I can see iSam's point as well. We all feel sorry for Correct Horse Wotsit, and hope he gets well, but that doesn't give him free rein to dish out abuse and yet whine when he gets it back. Doesn't work like that

    Otherwise we could all pretend to be bipolar alcoholics and demand protection from the tiniest scintilla of criticism
    You of all people should know there are degrees of acceptable and unacceptable behaviour on here. Attacking people for their views or what they say is one thing. Picking on their personal mental or health issues is quite another. CHB called Sam a troll. To reply by referencing personal issues is way over the top. And for the record people have done it to you in the past and I and others have said exactly the same thing then.
    Whatever, yawn

    As a more general observation - rereading the thread - there seems an unusual amount of petty bickering and offence-taking by many, even those who are generally more robust. I suspect we are all fucking rattled by Omicron, and truly fearful - if we are honest. This prickly PB atmosphere is a by product

    Everyone I have spoken to in the last couple of days is scared. Everyone
    I for one am not scared. Thoroughly fed up of the whole thing, yes, but not scared. I'm not going to start being scared either, unless and until there is a good reason to be scared.

    Nor do I think that any of us can afford to be scared every time there's a piece of bad news about the virus. Because there will be a regular stream of bad news about the virus - people mithering about variants, panicking whenever this statistic or that one heads in the wrong direction, poring and clucking over some new piece of research or another - for years. If you get into an endless cycle of pointless panicking it'll drive you round the bend. Totally loopy.

    It'll take the boffins some weeks to begin to get to grips with what serious implications - IF ANY - arise from this new variant. In the meantime, the fact that the Zombie Apocalypse hasn't started in Johannesburg, along with the majority of learned opinion, suggests that this is not an unmitigated disaster. And, therefore, the process for dealing with the pandemic in Britain has not fundamentally changed. Keep calm, carry on, and book your next jab as soon as you become eligible.

    And I wish they'd not elected to reimpose mask mandates. They're practically worthless, as the evidence of the giant comparative experiment we've been doing since July between England, Wales and Scotland suggests, and the decision has only served to piss off the less nervous part of the population and make the more nervous part of it wet themselves again, to absolutely no useful effect.
    I’m not scared of the Plague per se. It is what it is. Nothing I can do about it, so I don’t fret, even tho it is disquieting

    What I am scared of is another potential lockdown. Because the last 2 - especially the winter one - sent my almost into mental breakdown. Can I hack another one? I genuinely don’t know. It was horrific

    And here I CAN do something. I can escape. I could plan an exit route. But where? And when? And how? And what about those I leave behind?

    Somehow, having actual options makes it properly scary. The clock ticks. The stone door slides down and Indiana Jones wonders when to roll under or get crushed. But then he has to go back to get the cat, as Alien prowls the spaceship

    SCARY
    Well that’s where we a very similar - I am as terrified as you of restrictions. Like you, the last winter restrictions nearly broke me - and I am someone who is normally mentally healthy.
    I aint doing it!! No lockdown for me. Mates will be around my house if pubs shut. Unless the omni turns out to massively avoid the vax (as in huge spike in hospitalisations) then we should collectively say no.

    I'm done.

    We have to start getting some fecking perspective: mental health, jobs, education, treatment for every other illness etc etc etc.

    I am confident, so far, that Javid will not buckle to the zero-omni brigade.
    He inspired confidence, but stories tonight of people unilaterally cancelling parties makes me wonder whether Christmas is going to be wrecked by fear rather than restrictions.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,965
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well he’s losing on the measure to a PM that’s in a hole. I had a billion pounds at 8/1 with a mate that Sir Keir would win Best PM this week w R&W too, bah
    You're a troll. And not a very good one!
    All the best with your illness
    Not clever Sam. Whatever the disagreements we all have amongst ourselves on here there are certain things that just aren't acceptable. Not many perhaps but that is definitely one of them.
    I’ve had close friends die from mental illness, and had my moments myself, but why should I be dug out by someone who makes stuff up, claims to be depressed, then gets a free hit when he starts ripping into me? For all I know he’s making it all up or is another poster pretending
    Honest, mate, I can see all that, but just leaaave it aaaaht. not wurf it. Ignore.
    I can see iSam's point as well. We all feel sorry for Correct Horse Wotsit, and hope he gets well, but that doesn't give him free rein to dish out abuse and yet whine when he gets it back. Doesn't work like that

    Otherwise we could all pretend to be bipolar alcoholics and demand protection from the tiniest scintilla of criticism
    You of all people should know there are degrees of acceptable and unacceptable behaviour on here. Attacking people for their views or what they say is one thing. Picking on their personal mental or health issues is quite another. CHB called Sam a troll. To reply by referencing personal issues is way over the top. And for the record people have done it to you in the past and I and others have said exactly the same thing then.
    Whatever, yawn

    As a more general observation - rereading the thread - there seems an unusual amount of petty bickering and offence-taking by many, even those who are generally more robust. I suspect we are all fucking rattled by Omicron, and truly fearful - if we are honest. This prickly PB atmosphere is a by product

    Everyone I have spoken to in the last couple of days is scared. Everyone
    I for one am not scared. Thoroughly fed up of the whole thing, yes, but not scared. I'm not going to start being scared either, unless and until there is a good reason to be scared.

    Nor do I think that any of us can afford to be scared every time there's a piece of bad news about the virus. Because there will be a regular stream of bad news about the virus - people mithering about variants, panicking whenever this statistic or that one heads in the wrong direction, poring and clucking over some new piece of research or another - for years. If you get into an endless cycle of pointless panicking it'll drive you round the bend. Totally loopy.

    It'll take the boffins some weeks to begin to get to grips with what serious implications - IF ANY - arise from this new variant. In the meantime, the fact that the Zombie Apocalypse hasn't started in Johannesburg, along with the majority of learned opinion, suggests that this is not an unmitigated disaster. And, therefore, the process for dealing with the pandemic in Britain has not fundamentally changed. Keep calm, carry on, and book your next jab as soon as you become eligible.

    And I wish they'd not elected to reimpose mask mandates. They're practically worthless, as the evidence of the giant comparative experiment we've been doing since July between England, Wales and Scotland suggests, and the decision has only served to piss off the less nervous part of the population and make the more nervous part of it wet themselves again, to absolutely no useful effect.
    It’s a fair point you make about the masks. The effect of non-FF3 mask wearing in shops is only going to be marginal, the act of their reimposing it had an effect on mental health in terms of reopening again the drumbeat of restrictions returning at any minute.
    I've been meaning to ask, is there any evidence for detrimental mental health effects of people wearing masks in shops? We know that masks save people from infecting others and that the effect is far from "marginal", but I'm intrigued as to whether your other claim is similarly anti-science, a guess, or well-grounded.
    Sorry my post was mangled, I tried to edit it but too late.

    I’ll try again: the overall effect of mandating masks in shops is only ever going to be marginal, but the fact they did it affects mental health severely due to the revived spectre of lockdown restrictions being reimposed at any moment.
    On mask efficacy, you're wrong. That's just the science.
    On mental health, I suspect you're wrong, but I asking. I don't think wearing a mask in a supermarket causes any harm, let along severe harm. But I stress that here, I have no science to back me up. It's just an extraordinary claim and I find it a little silly. But I'm prepared to hear evidence to the contrary. That was my question.
    You are entirely - entirely! - missing my point.

    I couldn’t care less about wearing a mask in a supermarket. Who cares? It had no effect on my mental health. What I am saying is that the fact that mandates were brought back were in and of themselves damaging to mental health because they again raised the spectre of restrictions being reintroduced at any moment. They revived my fear (and that of others) of severe lockdowns returning even though the new measures themselves were minor.

    (And yes, mask mandates in shops is only going to have a marginal effect on R. It will have some effect, but as part of the overall budget it’s pretty minor)
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    Toms said:

    A couple of weeks ago we were walking at dusk just near the river. At such times in Winter one often sees a fine sunset for 10 minutes or so. Then we were treated to a truly spectacular display. A scattering of clouds all across the sky reflected rosy-fingered light from the retreating Sun. A colossal waxing crescent moon shone, and, slightly higher, Jupiter lurked. That park is a Victorian bequest and the waning light played through the trees denuded branches. God's own movie set.

    Anyway, the only downside was the cars scuttling along the embankment like cockroaches heading home to their tea.

    Didn’t realise that cars drunk tea. That should help climate change!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2021
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Boris had cancelled New Year the Tories would be telling us what a good idea it was.

    Just like the Garden Bridge and the money he wasted

    Not everyone's as hyperpartisan as you are.

    Cancelling New Year is not a good idea. Its pathetic in fact.
    It's looking like a masterstroke to me, with Omicron on the loose.
    Has Leon hacked your account FFS? 🤦‍♂️

    If you're terrified of the big bad Omicron then go hide behind the sofa. Don't cancel everyone else's fun.
    You aren't there yet, but you're on a journey from mask denial to Covid denial, and it's fascinating to watch.
    Covid is real I don't deny it.

    What I do deny is that we have to change the way we live our lives to handle Covid. Get your vaccine, get your booster if needed, and live your life.

    I will put all my faith in the vaccines and that's that. If the vaccine fails and I get sick and die then so be it. Just as if a tyre bursts on the motorway* and I spin and crash and die then that will be sad but it happens.

    * Actually my tyre did fail on the motorway a couple of weeks ago coincidentally, but I didn't spin or lose control. I changed lanes and as I drove over the cats eyes as I changed lanes it just suddenly felt strange so I pulled off at the next junction that was just ahead and could see my tyre was dead. I had a spare in my boot and once the spare was on could resume my journey. Never had such a problem in 21 years of driving and that experience won't stop me from driving on the motorway again.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    I had a slight reaction to the pfizer booster yesterday - nothing a couple of paracetamol couldn't put right.

    I suppose there are two schools of thought - one, Omicron is nothing to worry about for the triple vaccinated and little to worry about for the double vaccinated who will presumably be triple vaccinated before too long.

    As for those who have eschewed any vaccine so far and especially older persons in that group, then it may well be a concern.

    The other possibility is it may be far worse than is commonly believed, the booster vaccinations are effectively a PR placebo and the corpses will be piling up by Christmas.

    No, I don't think so either but I'll leave that for the conspiracy theorists.

    The changes to the Labour frontbench - it's always possible to find someone who doesn't rate the new appointee or who claims they are rubbish (usually from the other side) so objective assessment, rather like me making a profit from a day's racing, doesn't happen as often as you'd like or hope.

    David Lammy and Yvette Cooper may be "blasts from the past" but both bring experience to the table and that's what you need in an aspiring Government frontbench - a mix of experience and ambition. Whether that experience derives from a history in Government or from a long and successful period in opposition matters little. It's the knowledge (rather like the taxi drivers) of how Government works or doesn't.

    Plenty of criticism of Sadiq Khan about today from the usual suspects - the London Mayoralty is not a substantial political post with any significant power. It's a symbolic position well suited to a politician interested in profile rather than substance. Khan doesn't fit the role as well as Johnson but it doesn't much matter. Had Covid occurred on Johnson's watch, he'd have faced the same TfL financial crisis as Khan and the same limited options.

    "Closing" the Bakerloo sounds drastic - it's the ninth most used of the eleven lines - but it's more like mothballing as the infrastructure would need to be maintained and that requires money so I suspect it'll be kept albeit with a reduced service.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Farooq said:

    I’m feeling more positive about Omicron tonight.

    The government’s has decided to power up the booster programme, so I should be able to get a shot in the next week or two.

    The extra NPIs are annoying, but reasonably trifling.

    A lot of the noise about Omicron has died down. Maybe it’s not as bad as people feared.

    Sssshhhh, they aren't reasonably trifling, they are the worst thing that ever happened, destroying your mental health the moment the cloth touches your nose.
    I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by maskness
    I wonder how many young children you have asked the opinion of before making such a trite comment
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    moonshine said:

    Farooq said:

    I’m feeling more positive about Omicron tonight.

    The government’s has decided to power up the booster programme, so I should be able to get a shot in the next week or two.

    The extra NPIs are annoying, but reasonably trifling.

    A lot of the noise about Omicron has died down. Maybe it’s not as bad as people feared.

    Sssshhhh, they aren't reasonably trifling, they are the worst thing that ever happened, destroying your mental health the moment the cloth touches your nose.
    I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by maskness
    I wonder how many young children you have asked the opinion of before making such a trite comment
    About 1500, give or take. You?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Boris had cancelled New Year the Tories would be telling us what a good idea it was.

    Just like the Garden Bridge and the money he wasted

    Not everyone's as hyperpartisan as you are.

    Cancelling New Year is not a good idea. Its pathetic in fact.
    It's looking like a masterstroke to me, with Omicron on the loose.
    Has Leon hacked your account FFS? 🤦‍♂️

    If you're terrified of the big bad Omicron then go hide behind the sofa. Don't cancel everyone else's fun.
    You aren't there yet, but you're on a journey from mask denial to Covid denial, and it's fascinating to watch.
    Covid is real I don't deny it.

    What I do deny is that we have to change the way we live our lives to handle Covid. Get your vaccine, get your booster if needed, and live your life.

    I will put all my faith in the vaccines and that's that. If the vaccine fails and I get sick and die then so be it. Just as if a tyre bursts on the motorway* and I spin and crash and die then that will be sad but it happens.

    * Actually my tyre did fail on the motorway a couple of weeks ago coincidentally, but I didn't spin or lose control. I changed lanes and as I drove over the cats eyes as I changed lanes it just suddenly felt strange so I pulled off at the next junction that was just ahead and could see my tyre was dead. I had a spare in my boot and once the spare was on could resume my journey. Never had such a problem in 21 years of driving and that experience won't stop me from driving on the motorway again.
    You do remember what it was like before we had vaccines? What if (and it's a big if) we have a vaccine-escaped variant that kills in large numbers? For me, it's obvious. We try to minimise the spread, which could well include using masks and not gathering in large numbers in close quarters.
    I hope that's not what Omicron is, and I've seen nothing to suggest it is yet, but we don't know as of right now. But for the sake of a public firework display, I really don't think erring on the side of caution will look like anything other than a great call should Omicron be what we all hope it isn't.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well he’s losing on the measure to a PM that’s in a hole. I had a billion pounds at 8/1 with a mate that Sir Keir would win Best PM this week w R&W too, bah
    You're a troll. And not a very good one!
    All the best with your illness
    Not clever Sam. Whatever the disagreements we all have amongst ourselves on here there are certain things that just aren't acceptable. Not many perhaps but that is definitely one of them.
    I’ve had close friends die from mental illness, and had my moments myself, but why should I be dug out by someone who makes stuff up, claims to be depressed, then gets a free hit when he starts ripping into me? For all I know he’s making it all up or is another poster pretending
    Honest, mate, I can see all that, but just leaaave it aaaaht. not wurf it. Ignore.
    I can see iSam's point as well. We all feel sorry for Correct Horse Wotsit, and hope he gets well, but that doesn't give him free rein to dish out abuse and yet whine when he gets it back. Doesn't work like that

    Otherwise we could all pretend to be bipolar alcoholics and demand protection from the tiniest scintilla of criticism
    You of all people should know there are degrees of acceptable and unacceptable behaviour on here. Attacking people for their views or what they say is one thing. Picking on their personal mental or health issues is quite another. CHB called Sam a troll. To reply by referencing personal issues is way over the top. And for the record people have done it to you in the past and I and others have said exactly the same thing then.
    Whatever, yawn

    As a more general observation - rereading the thread - there seems an unusual amount of petty bickering and offence-taking by many, even those who are generally more robust. I suspect we are all fucking rattled by Omicron, and truly fearful - if we are honest. This prickly PB atmosphere is a by product

    Everyone I have spoken to in the last couple of days is scared. Everyone
    I for one am not scared. Thoroughly fed up of the whole thing, yes, but not scared. I'm not going to start being scared either, unless and until there is a good reason to be scared.

    Nor do I think that any of us can afford to be scared every time there's a piece of bad news about the virus. Because there will be a regular stream of bad news about the virus - people mithering about variants, panicking whenever this statistic or that one heads in the wrong direction, poring and clucking over some new piece of research or another - for years. If you get into an endless cycle of pointless panicking it'll drive you round the bend. Totally loopy.

    It'll take the boffins some weeks to begin to get to grips with what serious implications - IF ANY - arise from this new variant. In the meantime, the fact that the Zombie Apocalypse hasn't started in Johannesburg, along with the majority of learned opinion, suggests that this is not an unmitigated disaster. And, therefore, the process for dealing with the pandemic in Britain has not fundamentally changed. Keep calm, carry on, and book your next jab as soon as you become eligible.

    And I wish they'd not elected to reimpose mask mandates. They're practically worthless, as the evidence of the giant comparative experiment we've been doing since July between England, Wales and Scotland suggests, and the decision has only served to piss off the less nervous part of the population and make the more nervous part of it wet themselves again, to absolutely no useful effect.
    It’s a fair point you make about the masks. The effect of non-FF3 mask wearing in shops is only going to be marginal, the act of their reimposing it had an effect on mental health in terms of reopening again the drumbeat of restrictions returning at any minute.
    I've been meaning to ask, is there any evidence for detrimental mental health effects of people wearing masks in shops? We know that masks save people from infecting others and that the effect is far from "marginal", but I'm intrigued as to whether your other claim is similarly anti-science, a guess, or well-grounded.
    Sorry my post was mangled, I tried to edit it but too late.

    I’ll try again: the overall effect of mandating masks in shops is only ever going to be marginal, but the fact they did it affects mental health severely due to the revived spectre of lockdown restrictions being reimposed at any moment.
    On mask efficacy, you're wrong. That's just the science.
    On mental health, I suspect you're wrong, but I asking. I don't think wearing a mask in a supermarket causes any harm, let along severe harm. But I stress that here, I have no science to back me up. It's just an extraordinary claim and I find it a little silly. But I'm prepared to hear evidence to the contrary. That was my question.
    You are entirely - entirely! - missing my point.

    I couldn’t care less about wearing a mask in a supermarket. Who cares? It had no effect on my mental health. What I am saying is that the fact that mandates were brought back were in and of themselves damaging to mental health because they again raised the spectre of restrictions being reintroduced at any moment. They revived my fear (and that of others) of severe lockdowns returning even though the new measures themselves were minor.

    (And yes, mask mandates in shops is only going to have a marginal effect on R. It will have some effect, but as part of the overall budget it’s pretty minor)
    If that happens, that's not the fault of mask mandates. You can't bin off one measure just because people indulge in slippery-slope thinking.
    And to be clear, masks in shops and on transport are meant to protect those who HAVE to be there. It allows the very vulnerable a chance that they can still travel to a shop and buy the necessary provisions and for them to have a fighting chance at not dying. It's not about R, it's about saving the lives of those who desperately need to hide from this virus whilst it's still out there in high numbers. That doesn't mean it's forever or that it's the start of something more draconian. It deserves assessing on its own merits, like every other proposal.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:



    Certainly our works do isn't getting scrubbed unless the wretched Government actually forces restaurants to close at some point in the next two-and-a-half weeks. And that, mercifully, appears highly unlikely.

    My office offered a works do, but almost nobody wanted to come in for it (and this was in discussion pre-Omicron). We're having a Zoom works do instead, with people toasting each other and munching mince pies in front of the screen. Possibly a quiz.

    I've heard of the drunken orgies that works dos in Britain are supposed to feature (Swiss ones were more sedate, sadly). Not sure that quite works by Zoom?
    I somehow doubt that our convivial evening in a local restaurant is likely to degenerate into an orgy. The last Christmas party we had was in 2019 and that was notably unlike a romp from the reign of Caligula.

    The notion of trying to replicate the event with a takeaway eaten in front of a laptop sounds hugely depressing, but each to their own I suppose.
    I don’t get the idea of trying to replicate. You just write it off
This discussion has been closed.